Energy isn't a complete predictor of terminal effect on soft tissue, but it isn't irrelevant, either.
I'm still trying to track down a test, but I tend to agree with you. If you look at the gel test of the 110gr TAP I posted, you'll notice that fragmentation doesn't start until about an inch into the gel block, implying that the bullet requires about an inch of travel through continuous resistance to start to break up. When the bullet strikes something thin and brittle like drywall, the drywall will crack and stop providing significant resistance almost instantly, so the bullet would exit largely intact. With repeated short contacts like this, a ballistic tip bullet would eventually start to break up, but how many walls would it take? More than a pistol bullet?
I dont' know, but I'd like to find out. What was idle curiosity when I started the thread has almost turned into an obsession. If I can't find a test online before my rifle comes in, I'm planning on buyine some 110gr TAP and some drywall and finding out for myself. If it comes to that, I'll come back and post some pictures when I do.
That being the case, we all just need to do a little risk analysis between the effects on a BG, and the effects of a stray bullet that missed the BG. It would be silly to use 22lf Super Colibri (11 ft-lbs energy) for fear of over-penetrating walls, and it would be equally silly to use a .308. We all just have to figure out where our personal "sweet spot" is, and live with it (and its consequences).
You're also right on this point. I think we can all agree that in the event of a miss, either a .45 or .308 will penetrate into the next apartment (in my case) with enough force to kill whomever may be on the other side. Given that, the key factor becomes what you are least likely to miss with. For most people, that's a long gun. For me, I'd go for my pistol first. In the last five years, I've put maybe 1000 rounds through rifles of various kinds. My round count for pistols is probably 30,000 at the very least. Also, I'm very familiar with my pistol, and my rifle, when it comes in, will be almost alien to me because 1) it's new and 2) my shooting has been so pistol-centric.
But as you said, its a risk anaylsis between what happens when you miss and when you hit. If indeed evidence proves a ballistic tip .308 will penetrate significantly more walls than another HD option, then then, for some people at least, the risks of a miss start to outweigh the benefit of the added effectiveness of a hit.
Really, though, all discussion about this is hypothetical until someone can prove this ammo penetrates more, less, or about the same as other options.