Actual civilian gunfights

[ATLDave]

When I read the news stories of civilians (not LEO, not military, and not gang-bangers going at each other) in shootings, it seems as though things are usually resolved, one way or another, with only a small number of shots fired. I wonder how often a protracted gunfight, with multiple rounds exchanged, actually breaks out involving one or more non-criminal civilians. Anybody have any data, or even annecdotes, on this?

I ask simply because some folks here must clank like a bulldozer walking around, what with all the spare ammo, BUG's, etc. How often does this stuff even come into play in the real world?

 

[JaxNovice]

It is extremely rare that a protracted gun fight breaks out. I am unsure of the exact amount, but the average number of bullets fired is around 2.5. This is why the restriction on standard capacity magazines is so silly.

 

[Double Naught Spy]

I ask simply because some folks here must clank like a bulldozer walking around, what with all the spare ammo, BUG's, etc. How often does this stuff even come into play in the real world?

Not often. Then again, it isn't often that the average person on the street ever even needs a gun.

I compiled a short list here after a brief internet search...
http://thefiringline.com/forums/showthread.php?t=464062&highlight=gun+fight

The chance for the number of rounds fired tends to go up with the number of bad guys involved.

 

[Mike1234567]

^^^ If that data is correct then more than 1/4th of those shoots resulted in 13+ rounds fired. Seems like a good argument for having at least two high capacity mags.

 

[TexasRifleman]

It's funny, I carry a couple of spare mags on the off side, but it's more because I like their weight offsetting the gun some than because I think I might need that much ammo. Just feels more balanced.

 

[Yarddog]

I carry a spare mag as a backup mag more so than ammo ; )
Y/D

 

[Deaf Smith]

Lance Thomas:

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0BTT/is_156_26/ai_82533205/

In his own words: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkWgp2abM2w

Gary Baker:

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0BTT/is_163_27/ai_99130342/pg_2/?tag=mantle_skin;content

Others:

http://johnjacobh.wordpress.com/2009/12/26/real-gun-fights-armed-citizen-rapid-response/

http://thearmedcitizen.com/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1evT61Qp_Q

http://www.wpxi.com/news/17223812/detail.html

Deaf

 

[David E]

it is extremely rare that a protracted gun fight breaks out. I am unsure of the exact amount, but the average number of bullets fired is around 2.5.

wrong

 

[Sam1911]

wrong

I have to take my hat off to you! That's a response so unambiguously unhelpful as to actually make me laugh right out loud!

"Wrong" as in the number is really 2.6 shots per incident? Or "wrong" as in the average number is 26 rounds? Or wrong because average number of shots does not appropriately inform the decision of how many rounds to carry? Or something else entirely?

Don't leave us hanging! Make a sentence out of that which explains your opinion and how you came to possess it.

 

[Trebor]

The more reading I do the more I believe the number of rounds fired in a "gunfight" is directly related to the number of rounds in the gun. That is, that shooters (good guys or bad guys) will tend to shoot most, or all, of their gun load before the fight is over.

So, if the participants are using six shot revolvers, the total number of rounds per shooter will be near six, but generally not more.

If a participant is using a higher capacity semi-auto, the number of shots fired will go up, until it reaches the initial mag capacity of the gun. (Not all will fire the whole mag, but many will fire most of the mag and very few will reload)

What I don't see are many cases of "civilian" (non police) shootings were the good guy or the bad guy reloads. It seems to be a "shoot what you brought" affair where once the ammo supply in the gun is gone, the fight is over, one way or the other.

This is just a broad generalization, not a scientific study by any means. And, I'm sure there is selection bias (mine) in there as well. Not to mention the fact that most reports of gun fights and shootings leave out details like number of rounds fired, magazine capacity, whether or not the shooters had extra mags, etc.

 

[DoubleTapDrew]

I think the main reason isn't necessarily ammo capacity but the fact that the most common malfunction in semi-autos (magazine malfunction) which will probably happen at the most inconvenient time.

 

[Jenrick]

If you are forced to shoot, most people are going to pull the trigger way to fast for good hits (hence the abysmally low hit rate for shootings). So let's go with .2 splits between rounds. That means for you to see and react to your assailant dropping, surrendering, etc. you will probably fire at least 2-3 more rounds (it takes on average at least .5 seconds to see, evaluate, and respond to a stimulus). That I would say is one of the reasons people frequently run their guns dry if it gets to that point.

-Jenrick

 

[Deaf Smith]

Actually that is right Jenrick.

And I bet alot of times the ones being shot have already been 'stopped' before the shooter has stopped firing.

When I practice on the range I don't try for super fast splits on the timer. Used to I could go down to .16 or so splits but now days .20 to .25 as long as the hits are good, I mean the size of a soft ball no matter what the range (and the further the range the more the splits go to .25 or .30.)

I see no benefit in tearing off six fast shots if for or five of them miss.

Deaf

 

[trex1310]

wrong

Well, you must be an expert on civilian gunfights. Exactly how many
gunfights have you been involved in? Inquiring minds want to know.


Put a period after your response. It isn't hard

 

[BossHogg]

If I'm going against 10 gangbangers I'm dead. If I'm being robbed for my billfold I hand it over. Life or death for me or my family is the only fight I offer. Not worth the hassle and lawsuits over anything else.

 

[Kiln]

Put a period after your response. It isn't hard

I like how you got onto him but didn't add a period to the end of your last sentence.

 

[JaxNovice]

Quote:
Originally Posted by jaxnovice
it is extremely rare that a protracted gun fight breaks out. I am unsure of the exact amount, but the average number of bullets fired is around 2.5.

wrong

Responses and people like this really prevent meaningful discourse.

 

[Kiln]

The average gunfight has around 2k rounds fired...if you are an African rebel.

There may be a reason that so many shots are fired per encounter though: http://www.independent.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00270/mogadishu1a_270864s.jpg

Guy on the far right practicing proper African rebel marksmanship.

 

[eazyrider]

I have to take my hat off to you! That's a response so unambiguously unhelpful as to actually make me laugh right out loud!

"Wrong" as in the number is really 2.6 shots per incident? Or "wrong" as in the average number is 26 rounds? Or wrong because average number of shots does not appropriately inform the decision of how many rounds to carry? Or something else entirely?

Don't leave us hanging! Make a sentence out of that which explains your opinion and how you came to possess it.

That was one of the best smack downs I have ever read. And so polite as well.

 

[Sam1911]

That was one of the best smack downs I have ever read. And so polite as well.

Well, I didn't mean it as a "smackdown" or at all disrespectfully. If you respond "wrong," I assume there's some reason you think that some portion of the preceding statement was incorrect, and that you have some reason for believing so.

Sooooo, what was it? If you wish to refute a fact or opinion, there simply must be a clear indication of what error you believe was presented, and what facts or opinions of your own inform that conclusion.

...

Also, guys please leave off the side track discussion of grammar and punctuation. Sloppy writing is annoying, but not worth derailing the thread. Thanks.

 

[TexasRifleman]

Regardless of the statistical average number of shots fired, my gut would tell me that most civilian gunfights have as many shots fired as the cylinder or magazine hold.

Lots of articles and books put forward the number 2.7, so there must be some good statistical data behind that number, but that doesn't mean much.

I read a Ken Hackathorn article somewhere once that said basically that criminal shootings (where no fire is returned) average between 1-4 shots. Gunfights involving civilians most always resulted in both parties firing until empty, regardless of capacity.

Probably not a lot of good data to give real proof, but the idea that most untrained civilians would shoot til the gun stopped doesn't take much of a leap of faith.

I have also seen it stated in numerous places that 80% of people shot in gunfights survive.

 

[Double Naught Spy]

trex1310 said,

Well, you must be an expert on civilian gunfights. Exactly how many
gunfights have you been involved in? Inquiring minds want to know.

Well trex, you don't appear to be an expert either when it comes to data analysis. One need not participate in any gunfights to be able to study and understand the numbers of rounds fired.

His answer was lacking, as already noted, but that does not mean that he is wrong or needs to be an experienced gunfighter.

 

[Trebor]

Lots of articles and books put forward the number 2.7, so there must be some good statistical data behind that number, but that doesn't mean much.

My understanding is that the meme that "most gunfights have 3 shots fired" comes from the old NYPC SOP 9 reports.

The NYPD records and tracks data on every officer involved shooting and publishes a report each year. These shootings include fights with criminals, accidental discharges, and suicides.

This info has been circulating in the LEO community for years. If you do some very simple statistical analysis of older SOP 9 reports I think you'll see the origin of the belief that "less then 3 rounds are rifed in most gunfights."

Personally, I think the SOP is widely and wildy misinterperated and that maxim on the law number of shots fired should be regarded as basically an urban myth at this point.

When the NYPD carried six shot revolvers, which was until fairly recently, the average number of rounds fired by NYPD officer in a fight was almost always six or less. When you add in the number of AD's and suicides (where presumbly only one round is fired) and then average the result, the number of "rounds fired per incident" (not fight, but incident, which is what they tracked) would skew even lower.

Now that the NYPD has been carrying Glocks for awhile, my understanding is the average number of rounds fired per actual "gun fight" has gone up. Basically, when they carried a six shot revovler, they fired up to six. Now that they have a 15 (or more) round Glock, they shoot more.

I don't have the documentation to back this up. This is just my understanding based on the reading I've done and what other people with better info than I have said on the subject.

So, the take away is, don't believe the old "most gunfights involve less then 3 rounds" story.

 

[ATLDave]

Trebor, what you say sounds plausible. Any idea, though, about civilian gunfights? Barring unusual circumstances, such as a jewelry store owner specifically targeted for a violent, multi-party robbery, I have the impression that most confrontations involving an armed civilian are ended with a brandished gun, and then the majority of those that require the gun to be discharged are over pretty quickly.

Regardless of the number of shots fired, it seems (based on no evidence but my own reading of news stories over the years) that extended exchanges of gunfire, with parties taking cover, reloading, clearing stoppages, etc., are extremely rare between a civilian and one or more criminals. Which stands to reason, since most criminals are preadators looking for easy prey. Once a gun comes out and starts making noise, they have to be really determined to do anything but leave.

 

[Jonah71]

I've quit carrying extra mags. I see nothing wrong with carrying them if you feel the need. Maybe I'm just getting old the fewest number of shots I have with any of my carry guns (except for the 5 rnd bug) would be 11 rounds. That seems like more than enough even with my poor shooting skills.