Ammo industry: We won't see return to normal until 2023.

[TTv2]

So get a percussion muzzleloader, buy a cap making die and some primer mixture, and scrounge up some powder. They go bang just like the suppository rifles and are plenty fun to shoot. Good way to scratch the itch and stretch your supplies, if nothing else.

Percussion revolvers have been in high demand for a year now, so it's only a matter of time before percussion and flintlock muzzleloaders disappear like everything else has. At some point people are going to make an excuse to buy different stuff just to justify their yearly dues to be a member at their local club.

 

[TTv2]

Now would be the time to start filling the old coffee can with cash to buy ammo when the prices reach the level you are willing to buy at. Start planning today for the next ammo crisis because rest assured another one will come. One of these years, perhaps next year, perhaps ten years from now, nobody knows when, ammo will fly off the shelves and it won't come back. Prepare now.

The issue with prices and money right now is we're in a position where it's not just ammo prices that have gone up, but gasoline, food, used vehicles... everything that's physical has gone up in price by a lot, some of it due to shortages, but others due to inflation. Wages aren't going up at the same rate inflation is, so the end result of all that is people have less money to put into a jar and what's going to stop that? Nothing, once the signs of inflationary spiral are detected, it's already too late.

 

[danez71]

2023... just in time for the election cycle to start back up.

#timing

 

[Encoreman]

As someone said, one day when the ammo leaves the shelves it won't ever re-appear. I said long ago that gun confiscation was too much of a hassle, just control the ammo. Just like an automobile isn't very useful without gasoline!! You can break out the slingshot and bicycles, we will be "boys" once again!! LOL

 

[JohnKSa]

As someone said, one day when the ammo leaves the shelves it won't ever re-appear.

That's a major factor in shortages like this one. The fear that if you don't get some now, there will never be another chance. As long as there are enough people out there worried about that, the shortage will continue. Why would they care how much it cost them--this is their LAST CHANCE. So they pay whatever anyone asks and buy as much as they can. And they keep on doing it as long as they can scrape together the money.

 

[TTv2]

That's a major factor in shortages like this one. The fear that if you don't get some now, there will never be another chance. As long as there are enough people out there worried about that, the shortage will continue. Why would they care how much it cost them--this is their LAST CHANCE. So they pay whatever anyone asks and buy as much as they can. And they keep on doing it as long as they can scrape together the money.

It's like a dealer selling drugs to an addict, but instead of addiction that's driving the buyer, it's fear.

So, who is it that keeps propagating this fear? We all already know that there's no federal laws coming to curb ammo sales, even the moderate Democrat senators from pro gun states know voting for that isn't gonna fly when they're up for re-election. What can Biden or federal agencies do executive powers? Ban lead in bullets under some EPA regulation?

Back when I got into guns in 2014-2015, I was going to gun shows and hitting LGS to buy ammo, but by then centerfire stuff was easy and affordable, but .22 LR was still slow to come back and there was one point I did buy a brick for $80 and I had not been introduced to online stores at that time. Why did I do it? Well, after seeing how Obama's administration could get away with anything and the CJ of SCOTUS re-wrote a law to not look racist, I figured if the Obama admin wanted to start restricting ammo, they could do it without much issue.

Back then I didn't reload, I thought it was too much money to get set up for it was too much and buying ammo was better. Then I realized that I could make ammo I could not buy in a box, do it cheaper, and it didn't take too long either and I could store thousands of primers and bullets for future use. How many new gun owners by their first gun and a reloading press and primers and powder and dies? They don't, they just panic buy.

Not saying reloading is the solution, not everyone will do it, thus there will always be panic buys from now on. In time this will pass and then it will come back and happen again.

 

[BCR#1]

Yeah, but you responded to this one.

He responded to opinions, not articles. BIG difference.

Bill

 

[WiTom]

When I see 5.7x28mm sitting on the shelf, then it will be "over" for me. I kind of regret buying that FN five seven, just because of the ammo situation. I love the gun, but not a fan of reloading it, and I don't like being at the mercy of waiting for ammo to show up. I have some boxes of ammo I got with the gun, and got it for a great deal, but not knowing when more and when,it is going to show up, is not the best of feelings.

 

[Carl N. Brown]

At the metal recycler, for brass shells:
19 Aug 2020 price was $0.80 per lb.
01 Mar 2021 price was $1.50 per lb.
15 May 2021 price was $1.80 per lb.

 

[rust collector]

There is a wealth of metal to be mined at the various shooting ranges, yet we continue to throw stuff away without a second thought. It is long past time to make recycling actually work, and higher metals prices is nature's way of making that clear.

 

[BCR#1]

At the metal recycler, for brass shells:
19 Aug 2020 price was $0.80 per lb.
01 Mar 2021 price was $1.50 per lb.
15 May 2021 price was $1.80 per lb.

I took 53 lbs of brass/primers to PSC metals in Chattanooga last week ago and received $138.90 @ $2.62 a pound.

Bill

 

[Carl N. Brown]

^ Don't know if I like this trend: implies ammo prices will rise with value of brass.

 

[mcb]

^ Don't know if I like this trend: implies ammo prices will rise with value of brass.

This is not new, the price of bullets/cases/primers (or nearly any other product made from commodities) always fluctuate with the price of the commodity they are made of.

 

[Bazoo]

We came closer than I've ever seen to society collapsing. Many a day I swung by the store and bought my 2 box limit, and sent the wife in for hers, with the admonition that, if shtf we'll really regret not getting that extra 200 rounds of 22. The wife agreed with me.

I believe society will some day collapse, and the store won't ever get resupply of anything. Eventually the lights will go off and not come back on. Not a big deal if you're prepared to garden and can and make the transition. Learning all the skills needed for 18th-19th century style life. A lifetime supply of 22 ammo for gathering food. All things to consider.

Price isn't really a factor for me, as long as I have the money. If 22lr is $10 a box I turn my nose up, but at $5-$6 a box, I gladly purchase.

Wish I new some local people with the same mindset.

 

[TTv2]

We came closer than I've ever seen to society collapsing. Many a day I swung by the store and bought my 2 box limit, and sent the wife in for hers, with the admonition that, if shtf we'll really regret not getting that extra 200 rounds of 22. The wife agreed with me.

I believe society will some day collapse, and the store won't ever get resupply of anything. Eventually the lights will go off and not come back on. Not a big deal if you're prepared to garden and can and make the transition. Learning all the skills needed for 18th-19th century style life. A lifetime supply of 22 ammo for gathering food. All things to consider.

Price isn't really a factor for me, as long as I have the money. If 22lr is $10 a box I turn my nose up, but at $5-$6 a box, I gladly purchase.

Wish I new some local people with the same mindset.

Well, the good news is you can find that .22 for 4 or 5 bucks a box on CCI's website, but you'll have a 10 box limit.

I just wish the LGS would figure it out that if people know about that, they wouldn't be willing to pay $15 for that same box of ammo in their store, but the LGS doesn't care because they operate on fear mongering, the inexperienced and panicked first time gun owner, and general ignorance of people.

For example, over the course of 3 years I saw the same used Hi Point (pistol, not carbine) on the shelf at an LGS, same $200 price tag on it every time. At first I thought, "Meh, Obama is still President" and figured that was the reason, then over time I realized that I was not the person the LGS was trying to sell that $200 used Hi Point to because I knew better. No, the LGS was waiting for that one day that one customer who didn't know any better and couldn't afford anything better would walk in, likely during some national crisis or after the election of an anti gun President, and buy it.

And that's exactly what happened last year. Sure, the LGS had to wait a really long time to sell that Hi Point, but they sold it and probably made $100 profit on the sale.

So, long story short is while we are the customers that the LGS makes money off of to keep the lights on, it's the person that buys a $200 used Hi Point that gets the owner a down-payment a new car.

 

[12Bravo20]

I was pleasantly surprised today when I stopped by Graf and Son's store and another small shop and both had 38 Special SD rounds in stock. I haven't seen any 38 Special let alone 9mm ammo on shelves around me in quite some time.

 

[Trashyshoots]

I can't find primers to reload. Im only loading LPP because I bought 10,000 in better times. I'll be buying 100,000 spp when I can find then for 5 cents or less.

I'm in the same boat but with .22. Boy I can't wait to buy it by the case again at close to normal prices. Already told the wife to clear the closets when ammo goes back to normal.

 

[Mark1964]

OK, a question about European .22lr ammo like the Lapua/SK, RWS and Eley lines:
Can they, too, not make it fast enough, or is the problem getting it to and into the U.S., or is it coming in but getting snapped up super fast?
Prior to this panic, you could pick a brick of middling match .22 like the Eley-made Wolf Match Extra or the SK Rifle Match all day, every day for about $70 a brick, to your door. A box, a brick, a case, multiples of any ... no problem.
You wanted to climb the ladder a bit and go $120 for a brick of Lapua Center-X ... no problem, how many you want?
Now, oy! Not so much.
Even Killough Shooting Sports, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Eley, can't keep much in stock for beyond a day or two.
Is our current appetite for ammo simply that voracious?

 

[Trashyshoots]

I can still find high end .22s at my local spot, they have gone up in price a bit, but that's OK, its worth it to me. Thankfully it still sits above the price where a lot of plinkers will pass.

 

[Waveski]

Thankfully it still sits above the price where a lot of plinkers will pass.

I don't understand your pint in making that statement. It's early , and I am only on cup of coffee #1 , so it could be me.

 

[Dale Alan]

Well, the good news is you can find that .22 for 4 or 5 bucks a box on CCI's website, but you'll have a 10 box limit.

I just wish the LGS would figure it out that if people know about that, they wouldn't be willing to pay $15 for that same box of ammo in their store, but the LGS doesn't care because they operate on fear mongering, the inexperienced and panicked first time gun owner, and general ignorance of people.

For example, over the course of 3 years I saw the same used Hi Point (pistol, not carbine) on the shelf at an LGS, same $200 price tag on it every time. At first I thought, "Meh, Obama is still President" and figured that was the reason, then over time I realized that I was not the person the LGS was trying to sell that $200 used Hi Point to because I knew better. No, the LGS was waiting for that one day that one customer who didn't know any better and couldn't afford anything better would walk in, likely during some national crisis or after the election of an anti gun President, and buy it.

And that's exactly what happened last year. Sure, the LGS had to wait a really long time to sell that Hi Point, but they sold it and probably made $100 profit on the sale.

So, long story short is while we are the customers that the LGS makes money off of to keep the lights on, it's the person that buys a $200 used Hi Point that gets the owner a down-payment a new car.

Sounds like you have all the answers, when are you opening your shop ?

 

[Dale Alan]

I predict all this "stocking up" talk is just that, talk . If a person did not prepare for this shortage , likely they won't be prepared for the next . The writing was on the wall for plenty enough time for folks to catch on, yet we see thread after thread of the same complaints.

 

[Trashyshoots]

I don't understand your pint in making that statement. It's early , and I am only on cup of coffee #1 , so it could be me.

Most plinkers won't pay 12.50-30$ for a box of 50 high end match .22s. So it leaves match ammo for me.

 

[DeepSouth]

For example, over the course of 3 years I saw the same used Hi Point (pistol, not carbine) on the shelf at an LGS, same $200 price tag on it every time. At first I thought, "Meh, Obama is still President" and figured that was the reason, then over time I realized that I was not the person the LGS was trying to sell that $200 used Hi Point to because I knew better. No, the LGS was waiting for that one day that one customer who didn't know any better and couldn't afford anything better would walk in, likely during some national crisis or after the election of an anti gun President, and buy it.

I’m not by any means saying you’re wrong, just offering another option.
We have treads here on occasion about haggling the price down, inevitably most people haggle, some want buy unless they haggle the price down. I’ve often thought this likely makes sellers price things high. You know instead of the price they actually want, that’d make to much sense.

 

[alsaqr]

That's a major factor in shortages like this one. The fear that if you don't get some now, there will never be another chance.

BOOM!!

Panic is driving this ammunition shortage. Ain't paying the panic game, still have two types of seldom used rifle primers left from the "Clinton will outlaw reloading" panic. Thankfully i stocked up on military 5.56mm and 7.62 ammunition years ago. When i go under the grass someone will have to haul off tons of the stuff.

IMO: Things are beginning to look up. Visited the local Academy store yesterday afternoon. The long gun shelves were full, there was one AR-10 rifle on the shelf. Store shelves had oodles of 5.56mm/.223 and 7.62X39 ammunition by several manufacturers. There was some 7.62mm/.308 target ammo at $54.99 per 20. .22 long rifle ammo at $8.99, 6.5 Creedmoor and a good supply of shotgun ammo.

This panic has impacted the muzzle loading community too. People are paying $20 and more for 100 #11 caps.