Average shots fired in average SD scenario

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I carry 9 shots of 9mm with an additional 8 in a reload. I know that when I'm calm I can put them all in an 8 inch diameter circle at 15 yards. I know I need more training to do it quickly.

Its difficult for me to imagine needing more than six shots before I can get away in any realistic situation (2 guys, 3 shots each before somebody or I am running away). However it's not difficult to carry an extra 8rd single stack magazine - I always have it on my belt even if I don't have my gun.

edit- I don't carry my gun where it's illegal, namely: places that sell liquor and the college campus where I work
 
I don't carry, we're not allowed to in IL.

My most likely scenarios:

- A single burglar breaks into the house while we're home. One magazine from my Bersa 380 should handle it.

- Anything else, and I either have to comply, run, or carry illegally if I'm anticipating possible trouble. (i.e. I'd rather be judged by 12 than carried by 6.)
 
likely scenario:

1) Road Rage
2) Car Jacking
3) Wrong place/wrong time robbery

distant 4th: mugging

Regular carry guns:

1) G23 + 2 mags
2) M&P 40c + 1 mag

Threat: My city is full of speeding, raging drivers and pan handlers. Considering that I'm rarely out on foot and severely limit activities that put me in close, confined proximity to strangers, the risk assessment for me is from an enraged driver who wants a pound of flesh for some perceived slight. Or from some seventeen year old that wants an extended spin in my vehicle w/o my consent.

Equipment: As others surely find, j-frame carry is very convenient but not really the weapon to have if faced with an armed adversary IMO. 90% of the time I carry an auto loader with extra mags. If I don't need them, fine. But the inconvenience from weight/bulk seems like a penance to pay just in case I ever do. I've pretty much abandoned IWB in favor of belt scabbards for the increase in draw time when in the car. Seriously considering a car-mounted holster from Eagle as a permanent solution but don't like the idea of my gun being in view of ppl casually at the driver side window. Still on the fence with that.

Training/Mindset: Evade and escape as the first option. Fire multiple projectiles if left with no other alternative as quickly as possible without producing undirected fire. I tend to string in threes and fives by instinct for whatever reason. 3-3-3 is the basic credo that I operate on given the parameters of the likely scenarios.

Pretty straight forward.
 
Posted by Double Naught Spy:
I figure that my safety and the safety of my family should not be downgraded to what I perceived to be the expected possible scenario as carrying extra ammo, light, knife, etc. isn't a significant encumberance.

The slight daily inconvenience I might might endure is far outweighed by the lifelong consequences of not being prepared.
Click to expand...

Bingo! You get it.

I'm not interested in a "personal calculus", or any other pseudointellectual mumbo jumbo.

The "Oh boo-hoo, I don't want to carry an adequate sized gun, they're just not comfy" crowd reminds me of the cop who didn't wear his body armor for "comfort" reasons. "I work a pretty safe beat, I'll never need it".

You guessed it--the cop ended up on a slab in the morgue. It seems the young white kid (with serious emotional problems) from a "nice" middle class neigborhood, who shot him, hadn't been informed that the officer worked a "safe beat". :rolleyes:

One of the cardinal rules of carrying a firearm for self-defense is "Expect the unexpected". Anybody who thinks that every possible situation is part of a "personal calculus", and that everything will turn out exactly as they "planned" in a real life situation, needs a serious reality check.

As for the 3 to 5 "rule", it's a crock. The guy from Louisville that I already mentioned in this thread, was within 3 to 5 feet of two attackers, and he needed ELEVEN rounds of .40 cal to stop them. If he'd been one of the geniuses who think they only need to carry 3 to 5 rounds to stop any attack, he'd be a dead man.
 
I think it was john Lott that did the study which found that in something like 99% of citizen self defense situation, just the presence of a gun by the victim defused the threat.

So the OP is correct in that carrying anything all the time is way ahead of the curve.

Once you get into actual shooting in self defense I think the "averages" go out the door. I think that 3-shot average is probably derived from a lot that took just one or two shots and several that took 15-20 but probably not many that actually took 3- exactly. No data just thinking that for most attackers one or two shots to the body is going to stop most attackers. If that doesn't stop them either you are a lousy shot under the circumstances or the perp is pumped up on adrenaline or drugs and it will take many shots to finally stop him.

Personally I carry a G23 with 1-2 mags whenever possible, but if I have to downscale to a S&W 642 or P3AT then I still feel way ahead of the average Joe and will be able to discourage or stop most attacks.

Once you are carrying, then you are fine tuning whether you can survive 99% or 99.99% of threats. Whenever you are not carrying you are maybe down to 50% or less depending on the "average" threat.
 
I think your calculus is correct, it comes down to whatever you feel most comfortable with and whatever you are most proficient with, from what I have read and heard most encounters are inside 21ft and on average there is 2-4 shots fired. Personally I train for a close threat at night and I carry a big bore semi auto and two mags to back it up. That totals 25 rounds total if you count one in the hole and refill the mag.

The gun I have has night sights and I always carry a high power flashlight, I also carry a my CRKT folder as well.

Thats my situation and load out.
 
I default to a single-stack 1911. I carry at least one spare mag. I usually carry two...NOT because I plan to empty my mags. They are cheap insurance.

In a gunfight, you won't have time to curiously shake your gun and take a look if you get a malfunction. You tap, rack, assess, bang (if need be) which will clear most malfunctions. If its a double feed, lock slide, rip out yer faulty mag (which is why you have a spare), rack judiciously, insert fresh mag, assess, bang (if need be).

Without a spare mag, it would be much more precarious, and/or awkward, and/or slow to retain the original mag weak-hand (or worse, placing it in a pocket or somesuch temporarily) while executing a clearing drill, then using the same mag again. If the mag was the source of the problem...you're back to square one.
 
I was trained to "shoot untill the threat was down" For me that means as many as it takes for the rat to stop groanin and whining. 3rds or 3 mags worth. Whatever it takes it takes. Pay no attention to statistics. They're just out there for the liberals to use against us.
 
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In my professional experience, most confrontations involve 1-3 BGs either unarmed or armed w/ non-firearms (either a surprised burglar with a screwdriver/crowbar or a mugging). The ranges were about 10 yards (running down the stairs towards you), down to contact (started at 1 yard directly in front, 1-2 yds front-right, 1-2 yards behind). Carry restrictions here mean that generally no shots are fired. If victim fights back, it's with hands or feet, pocketknife or briefcase/found blunt object.
If you're planning for a street confrontation while CCW, 3/3/3 or 5/5/5 is a good part of your training with the following provision--start your shot/seconds count from the holster and covered with your shirt/jacket/whatever your weapon is usually concealed with. Just like it would be when that guy walking towards you on the street suddenly pulls a knife at 1yd and becomes a BG looking to rob you.

As far as equipment goes, for almost every shooting I've looked at:
bigger caliber=better
higher capacity=better
hollow/soft point beats FMJ
 
Thanks, Defensory!, I got a real chuckle out of the irony of someone saying he's not "interested in a personal calculus', and then writes 4 paragraphs outlining his ... personal calculus. Classic. And the bonus is not only a detailed description of your personal calculus, but also the revelation that anyone that has a different calculus is guilty of being irresponsible, lazy, or pseudo this and that.

In sum, readers, you're only responsible if you meet the following Defensory minimums ... Wear full body armor (no more going to the pool or the beach, I guess); a Kevlar helmet - expecting the unexpected headshot (gonna get some funny looks at restaurants, but rules are rules); carry at minimum a .40 with at least 11 rounds, plus at least 2 additional magazines, minimum; a food taster, a gas mask ... oh, yeah, and if you live in a non-carry state, you'll have to move.

For those who now have to run out and drop a bundle on kevlar armor, a new gun, or relocate to a carry state, my apologies.
To those for whom this thread encouraged them to take some time to reflect on whether their current solution is their best solution, my applause.
 
I think it was john Lott that did the study which found that in something like 99% of citizen self defense situation, just the presence of a gun by the victim defused the threat.
Click to expand...

I thought it was Gary Kleck, but I could be wrong.

However, I agree with your point. In MY case, I see the probability of needed a gun as very small. If I had to frequent bad areas of a big city, I'd feel differently.

Taking the 99% above (or 95%), I figure that five rounds should be plenty FOR ME 99.9% of the time.

I think there is a "pray and spray" mentality that goes with hi cap guns. I know I even feel it when I do carry a 15 round gun ("Ah, more ammo, I don't have to worry as much about hitting the target"). When I carry 5 or 6 rounds, I know I have to conserve and do a better job of aiming, and that reduces the risk of hitting an innocent person.

Ken
 
Posted by lkssevem:
In sum, readers, you're only responsible if you meet the following Defensory minimums ... Wear full body armor (no more going to the pool or the beach, I guess); a Kevlar helmet - expecting the unexpected headshot (gonna get some funny looks at restaurants, but rules are rules); carry at minimum a .40 with at least 11 rounds, plus at least 2 additional magazines, minimum; a food taster, a gas mask ... oh, yeah, and if you live in a non-carry state, you'll have to move.
Click to expand...

Attaboy! Your blathering appeals to ridicule are EXACTLY what I've come to expect from you, and are indicative of your pseudointellectual, illogical and irrelevant "arguments"---i.e. personal attacks, appeals to ridicule etc. :p
 
I've seen it in other posts, but not this one, and it seems to make a lot of sense: "bring enough gun" (and, presumably, bullets).
I carry as much gun and ammo as I can given the way I'm going to dress that day. Hope that helps.
BRL
 
Many LEOs are trained to "Keep shooting until the threat is neutralized." I believe that is why we see some BGs who just won't give up or go down (probably drug induced bravado) get shot 5-10 times with 20-25 'shots fired'.

The average citizen probably would react like the 1st posters are saying...... 3-3-3.
 
Good point, Jake. Good point.

Everyone thinks he will be the cool, well-trained and calculating hero who quickly reverts to his training and responds with force when the bad guys breaks in with a gun.

The well trained 'hero' in that video actually dropped his shotgun when he came face-to-face with the intruder. The intruder ran. Then the hero picked up the shotgun and took one wild random shot (which put 16 buckshot holes through the wall of his house, but missed the bad guy completely). Afterward, he pumped up the story like he knew exactly what he was doing and now enjoys his 15 seconds of fame on the NBC Channel 5 Evening News. His story reminded me of Barney Fife telling Sheriff Andy Taylor about the incident afterward. "Yep, I pulled up the shotgun. I loaded up a chamber. Size 1 buckshot..." Yep, ready for the confrontation! Then confronted the burglar and dropped the shotgun.

I suspect that this is closer to the typical reaction in a serious situation.

But everyone on this forum thinks he's different.
 
I own a 45, 9mm, and 38. After many trials I decided to carry the 38 almost all the time in either a OWB or pocket holster. I just could not effectively conceal the 45 or 9mm.

Rule 1: Have a gun. If the 38 is the only weapon I can effectively carry, then that will have to do. Of course, I'd rather carry the larger, higher capacity firearm, but it just is not practical.

I feel satisified with the 38 because in my mind I will not need more than 5 shots, and I practice COM at 7 yards, one handed (Speer GDHP short barrel ammo). So, this gets to the OP's question- up to 5 shots at a close distance using one hand to draw and shoot until empty or threat is down. If I wear a coat or jacket I'll toss in 2 speed loaders with additional 38 ammo (and I practice using these).

KK
 
I consistantly carry a Glock 26 and one extra magazine. At times I have carried a S&W 442 in an ankle rig as well (usually while traveling). In most scenarios I imagine myself being in it will pobably be at contact distance. Things happen fast and I carry more rounds than I think I will need, but I do rely on another magazine.
 
Not so much "average" number of shots, but I would say more likely than anything ZERO shots is the most common when somebody has to pull a gun.
 
Then Reality

Personally I carry a Taurus Pro-Mil 9mm off duty. I too get tired of the weight of the pistol from wearing one so much. I have seen people killed with a 22 and others live shot with a 7.62. The thing is when the time comes forget the stats and shoot. Shoot the best you can under that pressure and do not stop until it is safe or you have no more ammo. That is why it is a good idea to be moving as you shoot so you can be out of harms way in case the ammo gives out before the bad guy does. The main objective is to stay alive and keep your family alive. Most of the time you will not see the bad guy until he is close to you and you will not know that he is a bad guy until he takes action. Because of this you will have to react as best you can. I will say it is a good idea (and also a lot of fun) to join a practical shooting club such as USPSA and shoot the competitions. They are moving and different stages. Very good practice and you can shoot them with the weapon you will carry.
GOOD LUCK. ;)
 
Then Reality

Personally I carry a Taurus Pro-Mil 9mm off duty. I too get tired of the weight of the pistol from wearing one so much. I have seen people killed with a 22 and others live shot with a 7.62. The thing is when the time comes forget the stats and shoot. Shoot the best you can under that pressure and do not stop until it is safe or you have no more ammo. That is why it is a good idea to be moving as you shoot so you can be out of harms way in case the ammo gives out before the bad guy does. The main objective is to stay alive and keep your family alive. Most of the time you will not see the bad guy until he is close to you and you will not know that he is a bad guy until he takes action. Because of this you will have to react as best you can. I will say it is a good idea (and also a lot of fun) to join a practical shooting club such as USPSA and shoot the competitions. They are moving and different stages. Very good practice and you can shoot them with the weapon you will carry.
GOOD LUCK. ;)

PS; When I was over seas searching vehicles for bombs, I thought one time, what would I do if a bomb exploded. The only answer I could come up with is "the best I can". That my friend is what you do in a firefight. You can only react so practice in an enviroment that will allow you to think and act and when you have to react your best may be good enough.
 
I'm probably repeating an old saw, but - you really will, more often than not, act out as you have trained.

Dropping your shotgun is really indicative of the level of training someone has (non-existent.) A surprise reaction is usually fight or flight, and with training, the response should be drawing a firearm and loading the trigger for the decision.

Mental attitude has a lot to do with it, and if you train, you should have been shifting into target acquistion of the threat, not ***! That's what training is for - to learn a response to stimuli.

Training is not a scenario discussion over the internet or a beer, it's actually being on a range or shooting house physically working through the inputs and responding to them. I've worked as a USAR Basic Training Officer for eight years, then as an MP later on, and I've learned I need a lot of training on making the initial decision that I have a threat.

Getting the ritual down after that, address the threat, make a decision, double taps, etc. is pretty rote stuff. Volumes of books available on that. Not nearly enough is available on point of contact risk assessment. FATS trainers help some, but you go in with a "shooter" attitude preloaded, not a "Going to 'Mart, honey!" attitude.

Of course, the downside is it's hard to stage surprise scenarios when the class might be actually carrying live ammo, which should deter most practical jokers, but doesn't. Anyway, I don't think we get enough real world training, although lot's of caring people try to offer it. Hence, training on mental attitude - Condition Orange, etc., to at least cut down on the impact of complete surprise.

Gotta ask - What did the homeowner expect when he grabbed a shotgun to investigate? He apparently had a clue . . .
 
Good point, Jake. Good point.

Everyone thinks he will be the cool, well-trained and calculating hero who quickly reverts to his training and responds with force when the bad guys breaks in with a gun.

The well trained 'hero' in that video actually dropped his shotgun when he came face-to-face with the intruder. The intruder ran. Then the hero picked up the shotgun and took one wild random shot (which put 16 buckshot holes through the wall of his house, but missed the bad guy completely). Afterward, he pumped up the story like he knew exactly what he was doing and now enjoys his 15 seconds of fame on the NBC Channel 5 Evening News. His story reminded me of Barney Fife telling Sheriff Andy Taylor about the incident afterward. "Yep, I pulled up the shotgun. I loaded up a chamber. Size 1 buckshot..." Yep, ready for the confrontation! Then confronted the burglar and dropped the shotgun.

I suspect that this is closer to the typical reaction in a serious situation.

But everyone on this forum thinks he's different.


He was shot in the arm and that caused him to drop the shotgun.
 
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