civilian shooting stats

[rwilson37643]

I acquired some interesting information from a friend who works for a states Attorney General’s office. They have tracked shots fired by CCW holders in the state in self defense, criminal acts, and negligence. Of course this data only includes those incidents reported to police, but it is still very interesting data. In the time this state has been issuing permits in the current manner permit holders have only fired 322 shots. Only 16 of these have been criminal in nature, some of these were in my opinion, negligence, but did result in criminal charges or were acts of suicide. 8 shots have been negligent without criminal charges, most of these occurred on a gun range or in the home. The remaining 296 shots were fired in self defense. The following table shows the range and hit or miss of these 296 shots:
Range # of hits # of Misses Total # of shootings
< 7 FEET 68 (48.9%) 71 (51.1%) 139 (47%) 52 (82.5%)
7 – 15 FEET 31 (32%) 66 (68%) 97 (32.8%) 43 (68.25%)
15 – 30 FEET 9 (24.3%) 28 (75.7%) 37 (12.5%) 12 (19%)
30 – 75 FEET 4 (20%) 16 (80%) 20 (6.76%) 6 (9.5%)
> 75 FEET 1 (33%) 2 (66%) 3 (1%) 1 (1.6%)
TOTAL 113 (38.2%) 183 (61.8%) 296
Some shootings represented in more than 1 range

• Total # of self defense shootings – 63
• Average shots fired by CCW holder – 4.7
• # of shootings with only one bad guy – 16 (25.4%)
• # of shootings with 2 bad guys – 34 (54%)
• # of shootings with 3 bad guys – 12 (19%)
• # of shootings with 4 or more bad guys – 1 (1.6%)
• # in which the bad guy was moving while being shot at – 63 (100%)
• # in which the CCW holder reported at least some movement while firing – 45 (88.9%)
• # of SD shootings occurring at the CCW holders home – 9 (14.3%)
• # of SD shootings occurring at the CCW holders place of employment – 12 (19%)
• # remaining – 42 (66.7%)
• # occurring indoors – 4 (6.4%)
• # occurring outdoors – 59 (93.6%)
• # occurring in full light – 14 (22.2%)
• # occurring in full darkness – 0
• # occurring in dim light – 49 (77.78%)
• Statisticly this states CCW holders have a .017% chance of being involved in a shooting
• # of CCW holders shot, stabbed, or otherwise in need of serious medical attention – 18 (28.5%)
• # of CCW holders killed – 2 (3.17%)
Sorry about the ambiguity and not telling which state. This data has not been made public, and my friend is afraid of repercussions if it is traced back to him. and the table didn't paste so well oops

 

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

A lot of misses for how many rounds were fired. Nothing new, but it does have a lot of ramifications. Did the shooters have enough rounds? Where did all of those misses go?

 

[Fred Fuller]

Interesting, and thanks for sharing that. Any idea what time frame the data covers?

 

[Loosedhorse]

Thanks. Good info. I understand you may not have access to answers to some questions, but I'll ask:

8 shots have been negligent without criminal charges

I take it these are shots that wounded someone or destroyed property?

I get a total of (at all ranges) 114 shootings; interesting only 2 defenders were killed. Seems to indicate that whatever the defenders was using was effective. Would be interesting to "drill down" into the circumstances of the two killed defenders (and any wounded), to see if there was some notable differences in those cases compared to ones where the defender was unharmed.

Also interesting that 7 shootings occured at greater than 30 ft.

 

[Librarian]

Very interesting indeed. Quite a small sample, but

• EVERY time, the BG was moving
• ALMOST ALWAYS outdoors (94%), and the defender reported moving (89%)
• (83%)the range was 7 feet or less for some of the shots, 2/3 of the time some shot out to 15 feet
• 78% dim light
• 75% of the time there was more than one BG

So, what do we get? An outdoor, dim-light scenario, with 2 or more BG approaching and the defender moving, seems to be the most likely combination of circumstances.

At least 2/3 of the time the defender was able to employ his/her weapon before the BG closed to 7 feet.

Average walking speed is 4 feet per second. Sprint speed, the old 100-yard dash in 10 seconds, is 30 feet per second. Tueller drill is 21 feet in 1.5 seconds (14 feet/second).

Somebody must have good data on OODA time to initiate draw and fire - this article suggests a reasonable average is .5 seconds added to the time to execute an action.

An old THR thread suggests 2.5 seconds is around average for a draw from concealment with no warm-up; if I use

• 14 ft per second BG speed
• an engage distance of 15 feet
• a decision time of .5 second
• a draw-to-fire time of 2.5 sec

I get around 57 feet as an outside distance for 'hey, here it comes!'.

It would be a shorter distance if the BGs were moving more slowly, or if either of the .5, 2.5 seconds times were shorter.

 

[rwilson37643]

The data covers just over 10 years ending in 2010
Most of the ND's were ccw holders shooting themselves (GSW has to be reported by the hospital)
It is only 63 shootings, many apparently had shots fired at more than one range ( I guess this is because of multiple targets or movement or both)

 

[mortablunt]

• Total # of self defense shootings – 63

Over 10 years, this comes out to 6.3 a year, or one about every 2 months and 10 days.

• Average shots fired by CCW holder – 4.7

That means that revolvers and pistols are both of worthwhile utility.

• # of shootings with only one bad guy – 16 (25.4%)

According to data, villainy loves company.

• # of shootings with 2 bad guys – 34 (54%)

2 thugs working a single mark is common globally.

• # of shootings with 3 bad guys – 12 (19%)

So dealing with a trio is significantly more common than dealing with an individual.

• # of shootings with 4 or more bad guys – 1 (1.6%)

Gang attacks are very uncommon.

• # in which the bad guy was moving while being shot at – 63 (100%)

The normal reaction a thug has to facing an enemy weapon is to flee.

• # in which the CCW holder reported at least some movement while firing – 45 (88.9%)

Standing still in combat is a bad idea.

• # of SD shootings occurring at the CCW holders home – 9 (14.3%)

So that home defense preparation is likely to go to waste.

• # of SD shootings occurring at the CCW holders place of employment – 12 (19%)

I'm more likely to need a firearm at my job than at home- that's not at all reassuring.

• # remaining – 42 (66.7%)

Be ready for anything at the most random places.

• # occurring indoors – 4 (6.4%)

So wall penetration is not an important factor for ammo choice.

• # occurring outdoors – 59 (93.6%)

This is fairly consistent with HVZ tags too.

• # occurring in full light – 14 (22.2%)

This is surprisingly common; I expected less daylight activity.

• # occurring in full darkness – 0

I'd imagine that criminals would operate more in the dark.

• # occurring in dim light – 49 (77.78%)

That seems about right.

• Statisticly this states CCW holders have a .017% chance of being involved in a shooting

Which in a way, almost makes the need to license CC seem a bit crazy.

• # of CCW holders shot, stabbed, or otherwise in need of serious medical attention – 18 (28.5%)

This is higher than I remember reading about, where resisting with a gun worked 75%.

• # of CCW holders killed – 2 (3.17%)

Those are still better odds than those offered by compliance or resisting by other means.

Sorry about the ambiguity and not telling which state. This data has not been made public, and my friend is afraid of repercussions if it is traced back to him. and the table didn't paste so well oops

I find the secret data thing a bit hard to believe on the basis of first ammendment and how governments operate.
_________________________

EVERY time, the BG was moving

So training needs to be focus on moving targets.

ALMOST ALWAYS outdoors (94%)

Training needs to be conducted outside.

, and the defender reported moving (89%)

Training should include a tactical focus on dynamic shooting.

(83%)the range was 7 feet or less for some of the shots, 2/3 of the time some shot out to 15 feet

So marksmanship accuracy is unnecessary; what needs to be taught is tactical dynamic precision.

78% dim light

Training should be conducted in low lighting conditions.

75% of the time there was more than one BG

And against multiple opponents.
_________________________

An old THR thread suggests 2.5 seconds is around average for a draw from concealment with no warm-up.

Drawing from concealment takes a lot of time and practice, and it's a very noticeable action. I'd hardly say that it helps at all with any sort of tactical advantage. Drawing from a non-concealed holster would cut draw times significantly.
_________________________

Does anyone have statistics on how things fared for the bad guys involved in those shootings? I'd like to see how comparatively better or worse they did and what happened to them afterwards.

 

[HeadJunter]

• # in which the bad guy was moving while being shot at – 63 (100%)

Given that the average (mean) number of shots was 4.7, do you have any idea as to whether the villain was moving when the first shot was fired?

As my colleague Rob Pincus puts it: "after the first shot, everyone starts moving." That's why I stress getting a good first round hit in my classes. After the first shot, the marksmanship problem becomes a lot more difficult.

 

[Kleanbore]

Given that the average (median) number of shots was 4.7, do you have any idea as to whether the villain was moving when the first shot was fired?

That number appears to represent the mean (296/63), but the question is a good one nonetheless.

As my colleague Rob Pincus puts it: "after the first shot, everyone starts moving."

With 94% of the shootings occurring out of doors, I have some trouble rationalizing why the majority of the incidents would not have involved an attacker who was moving at the outset.

Sure, a robber might stand still while waiting for compliance, but in how many of those incidents would the victim draw and fire?

In how many justifiable shootings would the attacker not be moving--from around a parked car or fuel pump, from an alley, whatever?

If the attacker were not moving, what would provide the defender with a basis for a reasonable belief that deadly force was immediately necessary? A knife in hand? Why would an attacker brandishing a knife stand still?

 

[TurtlePhish]

> 75 FEET 1 (33%) 2 (66%) 3 (1%) 1 (1.6%)

Over 25 yards...

I wonder what happened here...

 

[Al Thompson]

Those stats seem to "fit" with what Tom Givens reports, despite being from the opposite end of the state.

Recently, we had a good shoot here that was probably closer to 20 yards than not.

 

[Kleanbore]

Those stats seem to "fit" with what Tom Givens reports,...

That was my initial reaction.

 

[Doghandler]

Over 25 yards...

I wonder what happened here...

Suppressive fire fighting for cover?

 

[Doghandler]

...
Recently, we had a good shoot here that was probably closer to 20 yards than not.

Dude, that's like 11 yards.

 

[Al Thompson]

Gotcha. You are exactly right.

Problem is that the RO thinks one thing, the "no bill" has a different figure. I'm familiar with the street, though not the person/location.

Bottom line (IMHO), nobodies fight is my fight or your fight. Best to plan for black swans and train for white ones.

 

[msb45]

Multiple Attackers

My big takeaway was 73% of the time you're dealing with multiple attackers. If you're still running a S&W Chief's Special may be time to reevaluate. I use mine only as a back-up.