Cont' in new direction to closed thread. How many rounds to carry.

[coolluke01]

Some stats have been posted on average number of rounds and distance. Anyone with access to those please post them.

We were talking about how many rounds may be needed in a SD situation when you factor in the fact that on average only 30% of shots land on target.

A 6 shot revolver would give you almost 2 hits.
A 10 round mag would give you 3.
A 17 round mag would give you 5.


The question I would like to focus on is not so much which gun should I carry, but how many rounds are really likely needed given the 30% average of hits and a average number of assailants.

Also any info on how many shots per assailant are likely needed. In the academy we were taught two shots center mass and more if needed. Keep in mind this question is only here so that we can shed light on the main question of how many rounds are likely to be needed.

Any documentation to show averages would be helpful.

 

[psyopspec]

I'll be interested to follow the thread, but also would like to point out that in any situation where there are averages, no single sample might actually be average. In other words, while examining the issue at hand might reveal some interesting insight, don't count on a given gunfight to be average. Here's hoping none of us ever have to find out. But just in case, train to be above average. Amateurs practice until they get it right; pros practice until they get it wrong.

ETA: Luke, can you say more about what you're hoping the data could inform? Is it something like if there is sufficient info to indicate that X number of rounds was a mean, you might grab an extra magazine on the way out the door? Or something else?

 

[420Stainless]

I don't have access to stats, but it seems like you'd have to do a lot of filtering in order to determine how many hits are required. Required to what? Stop the threat? Kill the threat? Repeal the threat?

It is quite possible for a miss to be effective if the bad guy turns and runs as a result of seeing/hearing the shot. In the same way, one shot might deter multiple assailants if they cut and run once the shooting starts. It may be hard to find and include only the cases where both sides are determined to kill each other without regard to their own lives.

 

[Drail]

I really don't think you can analyze this statistically. There are simply too many variables. You might only confront one or two guys in a parking lot or you may be chased into a building by a gang. Carry as much as you can comfortably.

 

[MedWheeler]

The number of rounds that is "enough" is the same as the number of rounds that is needed during the situation. If you have a six-shooter and it takes seven to stop the thread, you're one short. But, if you have a 2-shot derringer and merely presenting it causes the bad guy to turn tail and run (ending the threat), you were two over.
If you're really gonna go by "averages", you have to remember that the "average" number of rounds fired in successful civilian (non-LE) defensive encounters is less than one tenth of one shot. It's probably closer to one shot per 10,000 (or far more) encounters.
So, do you still think you can get a precise figure as an answer?

 

[EddieNFL]

All the internet experts say it will be over in three rounds or less so a J-frame is more than enough. If you carry more or extra mags/speedloaders, you don't know how to shoot. I carry a 1911, but I load only four rounds (I sort of know how to shoot).

 

[orionengnr]

the fact that on average only 30% of shots land on target

I have never seen anything to indicate that this is a "fact".
The "fact" may be that in any given year, NYPD officers may only hit with 30% of their rounds. That is irrelevant to you and me.

The fact is (as I see it) that if I am facing one armed assailant, my odds are reasonably good. If I am facing two or more armed assailants, I had best be having a really good day, and even at that, I may be the recipient of several lead infusions. I can only hope that their aim is not as good as mine, and that I can dispatch them before they dispatch me.

The odds are not in my favor.

Having a larger number of a smaller round will only improve my odds if I shoot fast and miss frequently, and if they do likewise.

I will stick with a fairly low capacity pistol that I shoot reasonably well (1911), and practice with it regularly. Then I will hope that I am never accosted by a large number of BGs who can shoot well.

 

[zxcvbob]

I carry one reload. Either a spare magazine, or a speed strip for a revolver. Number of rounds has little to do with it.

 

[coolluke01]

I would like to learn, from any data offered, what is a worst case situation and what a average situation require. From that each of us could determine for them selves what is reasonable. When ever dealing with stats I think it's best to throw out the highest and lowest numbers and deal with the median figures.
I know just flashing a gun will stop many situations from going further, but that figure doesn't help us here. The worst case shoot em up gunfight might be interesting to some as they may like to plan for that.
With this in mind please try and understand the goal of this thread.

The 30% number was an eye opener for me. I always figured that the 10+1 I carried would be more than enough. I question that now.

I totally understand that the 30% number could be a yearly average and may not be a good representation of what you and I could do. But that is where stats could come into play. Anyone with knowledge of SD situations and what transpired?

Eddie you make me laugh. At least give us a or something!

I think we can come up with some useful info from this. We have a good idea about what distances to expect. What about rounds used? What about how many rounds needed to stop the threat? How many misses?

Stress is a huge factor! On Saturday at a steel match I cleared a dozen targets with about 14 rounds and then rushed the last target and missed it 3 times before I took a breath and hit it. I did this in the fastest time of the day but I still missed that last target 3 times! It was 40' away, but stress and rushing it got the best of me.

It took me about 18 rounds to clear 13 targets IIRC. That's a 72% hit rate. They were poppers and 6" plates at 40 feet. But they were static and weren't shooting back. Could I hope for half that in the wild! Half would be 36%!! Makes you think.

 

[RaceM]

Whatever you carry 2 reloads ought to be enough. If there's more bad guys than you've got rounds you are screwed. If you are shaking so bad that you keep missing, maybe you should have used that adrenaline to run instead of fight.

 

[Waywatcher]

I feel comfortable, and also not like Rambo with 1+12+12 for my .40 S&W.

An autoloader ought to have at least one spare magazine carried with it in case of malfunction, etc.

 

[coolluke01]

I should also say that I'm of the opinion that unless the rounds are in your gun to start with they will serve you little purpose. I don't care how many rounds you have in your pocket a single shot derringer is not equal to a autoloader with a large mag.

I think autoloader mags are to be backups for mag failures not for extra rounds.

The situation is likely to be over before you get a chance to reload. It could often be over during your reload! We would't want that now would we?

Please ignore my tangent and continue on with the discussion. I'm just saying this to clarify my position that more rounds in the pocket don't automatically add rounds to your guns capacity!

 

[zxcvbob]

I think autoloader mags are to be backups for mag failures not for extra rounds.

The situation is likely to be over before you get a chance to reload. It could often be over during your reload! We would't want that now would we?

The spare magazine is mostly in case the first one fails.
The speed strip in my pocket is so I can reload my revolver *after* the shooting is over (assuming I survive)

 

[trickyasafox]

I'd be leery of simple descriptive stats on this one- I suspect it is VERY bi-model in distribution where you have a large cluster of incidents with 1 shot, and then another fairly large cluster of mag dumps that average out to 3 rounds fired, also skewing the hit statistics between the 1 shot drops and the 'air-balls' of the self defense world.

Not saying 1 shot drops are norm, but just saying without seeing the data set, I don't think we can draw much from this.

That being said, I carry 1 reload, no matter what gun is on me.

 

[Skribs]

Whoever asked "enough for what?", aren't we always on THR talking about stopping the attack? At least with SD/HD scenarios.

Whether or not reloads count all depends on whether or not you think they count. I think they do; I just think they're not that important if you're already carrying 10+. That doesn't stop me from carrying more - I'd rather have a reload and not need it. Of course, there's a limit, I'm not carrying more than 1 mag pouch worth

There are an infinite number of factors, but it basically boils down to these 4 questions:
1) What percentage of shots do you reasonably expect to hit your target?
2) How many shots do you expect to need, on average, to stop the attacker?
3) What is the maximum number of attackers you believe reasonable to prepare for?
4) Do reloads count?

 

[allaroundhunter]

In my experience using a handgun to defend myself (never against a 2-legged threat), my hit percentage is well over 30%. However, even that does not factor in very much to how many rounds that I choose to carry. I carry 35 rounds (1+ 17+ 17), because most semi-automatic malfunctions are magazine related and I want to have a backup for that reason; more so even than for the extra ammunition that it gives me.

Sent from my HTC One X

 

[X-Rap]

Average is just that, it might get you through school without to much trouble but a gunfight? I think I want to stack my odds every chance I get.
I could never say 5 or 6 with confidence.

 

[David E]

How many rounds may be needed in a SD situation when you factor in the fact that on average only 30% of shots land on target.

Fact? Cite your source, please.

how many rounds are really likely needed given the 30% average of hits and a average number of assailants.

I disagree with your premise. Even if you can cite a source saying that, say, the NYPD fires an average of 8 rds per encounter per officer, (last stat I've seen) how does that specifically apply to you?. Unless you're a NYC cop that has only been trained by them, it means nothing.

It mainly comes down to character and mindset. There have been many cases where "trained" people spray the area with wild shots, go thru stupid Hollywood protocols or stand frozen in utter disbelief that someone would want to hurt them.

As a private citizen, I have no obligation to engage anyone, so I may not need 52+ rds on my person. But if all I had was a 5-shot .38 when accosted by 3 guys in a dark parking lot, I may wish I had those 52+ rds, the first 18 being in my gun.

But it may not matter if I don't know what to do, don't know how to do it, or hadn't made the pre-determination TO do it if necessary. Many people have two of those down, but not all 3

Having all 3 down pat, especially the last one, matters more than how many rounds your gun holds.

 

[Skribs]

Having all 3 down pat, especially the last one, matters more than how many rounds your gun holds.

And so we get to the typical answer for a X vs Y question of either "training" or "mindset". Yes, training and mindset are important, but that's not the question being asked. Unless its relevant to HOW MANY bullets you will need, it doesn't matter in this thread. The question assumes you know what to do, how to do it, and are prepared to do it.

 

[coolluke01]

I miss stated that when I used the word fact. Possibility would have been more proper.

While training and mindset may be the most important factors, this is not the question being asked here.

Also i know that the 1 shot numbers mess with our stat's and how they may apply to us. That's why I would like to toss those out as not representative of our question.

Anyone have any numbers on how many COM hits are likely to be needed to stop a threat?

Here is an article that shows handgun survival rates at 80%. If I read that correctly. Here's the link.http://www.shootingvoodoo.com/index.php/articles/gunshot_wounds_and_you/

After reading this entire article, I would like to say that shooting for mortality is not something I would encourage. We shoot to stop.

 

[kcshooter]

I have read that 90% of handgun wounds are survived!

I remember reading that figure, or one very close to it, a few times.



With an auto, I carry one spare mag. Don't care if it's 8 rounds or 16 rounds. This isn't a round count thing, it's a malfunction thing. Something goes sideways on me, I'm clearing the gun, changing the mag and getting back into the fight.

With a revolver, I carry a speedloader and a 6 round 2x2x2 or loop carrier. This also isn't a round count thing, it's based on reloading. If I need to reload 4 or 5 rounds, I will probably use the speedloader. If I want to reload 1-3 rounds, I will probably use the carrier.


While NYC police may have a 30% hit ratio, I certainly hold myself to a much higher standard. If I shoot 10 rounds and 7 of those don't hit what I'm trying to, I am responsible for a whole lot of flying lead.

 

[Teachu2]

I will stick with a fairly low capacity pistol that I shoot reasonably well (1911), and practice with it regularly. Then I will hope that I am never accosted by a large number of BGs who can shoot well.

+1 and a half. Until recently, a 1911 was my choice for CCW in unplesant areas. I am transitioning to the Glock 30. If I think I might need more than that, I don't go there!

Practically speaking, if I need more than 3 then I want at least 50. If the first 3 haven't ended the threat, I'm probably facing multiple determined attackers, so I'm looking to take cover and wait for the calvary to arrive.

 

[Kleanbore]

Consider a fast moving attacker who must be stopped very quickly and effectively before he sticks you with something sharp. One will not be able to aim very well, and multiple hits will probably be required. Think "pop-pop-pop-pop".

Consider then the likelihood that more than one attacker may have to be engaged. Multiple attacker are not at all uncommon; will the second person give up, or decide that closing the remaining distance is a safer choice?

Reflect upon whether you would like to provide for a margin of error. I would.

Make a decision. Will your choice be "enough"? You will not know until it happens.

Anyone have any numbers on how many COM hits are likely to be needed to stop a threat?

That will depend upon two things: (1) whether the perp is predisposed to fall down when he is hit, and (2) what is hit--hat the bullet does. Two shots through the same lung will likely be little more effective than one shot. A shot in the heart may not do the trick. A shot that severs a particular motor nerve or tendon could render the attack ineffective. There are too many variables to answer the question.

I have read that 90% of handgun wounds are survived!

True, but what you are trying to do is stop an attack, not cause the attacker to expire.

 

[Teachu2]

I will stick with a fairly low capacity pistol that I shoot reasonably well (1911), and practice with it regularly. Then I will hope that I am never accosted by a large number of BGs who can shoot well.

+1 and a half. Until recently, a 1911 was my choice for CCW in unplesant areas. I am transitioning to the Glock 30. If I think I might need more than that, I don't go there!

Practically speaking, if I need more than 3 then I want at least 50. If the first 3 haven't ended the threat, I'm probably facing multiple determined attackers, so I'm looking to take cover and wait for the calvary to arrive.

 

[Skribs]

I'm pretty sure there are MANY threats that are stopped with 3<X<50 rounds of ammunition. Seems to be a very polar response.

I will stick with a fairly low capacity pistol that I shoot reasonably well (1911), and practice with it regularly. Then I will hope that I am never accosted by a large number of BGs who can shoot well.

I'm not trying to start a single-vs-double stack debate, but if your argument is that you're going to practice, you CAN practice with a double stack. If you shoot the 1911 that much better, then I can't argue with that, but you can't compare single stack with practice to double stack without. Compare both with practice and then decide.