Cont' in new direction to closed thread. How many rounds to carry.

[doorman]

One big variable would be the amount of training under stress. Most people who carry are OK at the range shooting at paper but there is little or no training with a moving target that would probably take your focus to the point that you would think you weapon failed when in reality you just did not take it from safe to fire. Or, if there was an actual malfunction, would you have the mental capacity to clear the weapon and re-engage.

 

[Skribs]

Doorman, excepting the part about hitting a moving target under stress, the variables such as clearing malfunctions and whether or not the safety is on really don't pertain to the number of rounds you will need.

 

[David E]

I miss stated that when I used the word fact. (for a 30% hit ratio) Possibility would have been more proper.

Then that makes the entire question frivolous and moot. It's possible 1 shot will suffice for 10 badguys (they all run after the first shot). But it's also possible that 20 shots won't be enough for one guy hopped up on drugs. (it's happened)

While training and mindset may be the most important factors, this is not the question being asked here.

Yet it has more to do with how many shots are "enough" than arbitrary POOYB hit percentages.

But to answer the question asked, 11 shots in-gun are "enough."

 

[Skribs]

Yet it has more to do with how many shots are "enough" than arbitrary POOYB hit percentages.

If you do not have the proper mindset to defend yourself, then how many rounds you have is irrelevant. Just like in the locked thread how if you get shot in the head from behind, how many rounds you have is irrelevant.

Training is relevant in so much as if you are more accurate, you are more likely to hit. But "training and mindset" doesn't really answer the question. Training helps you need less rounds. Mindset helps you use the tools. That doesn't tell us what tool to use.

It's possible 1 shot will suffice for 10 badguys (they all run after the first shot). But it's also possible that 20 shots won't be enough for one guy hopped up on drugs.

This is true, and its part of why this question is so hard for someone to answer. However, everyone does need to answer it for themselves. Are you carrying enough ammo? Yes, its based on a lot of assumptions, but it still is something to consider.

But to answer the question asked, 11 shots in-gun are "enough."

Just curious, what do you base this on?

 

[David E]

Because 11 is "one loudah."

 

[coolluke01]

Then that makes the entire question frivolous and moot. It's possible 1 shot will suffice for 10 badguys (they all run after the first shot). But it's also possible that 20 shots won't be enough for one guy hopped up on drugs. (it's happened)

This makes no sense!

I changed the word 'fact' to 'possiblility'.

We were talking about how many rounds may be needed in a SD situation when you factor in the (possibility) that on average only 30% of shots land on target.

The entire premise of this question is to determine how many rounds we should carry. The 30% number is just a commonly known stat that refers to the NYPD's hit ratio. I would like to see if there is any real world data that gives us a better idea of what we could expect.

If 30% hit ratio is all we could ever hope for, I think that would change some peoples mind about what they carry.

 

[Kleanbore]

I would like to see if there is any real world data that gives us a better idea of what we could expect.

The number of variables is too great, and the number of data points too small, to base anything on "real world data".

Variables include how many hits per attacker have been effected, where the bullets hit, how the attacker was inclined to react to being shot, how close he was and how fast he was moving, and whether the defender was able to step aside or parry a knife thrust with a cane, and so forth.

And that's before we factor in the number of attackers and whether second attackers turned tail or continued the attack.

And even if we had mean data, we couldn't do anything with it.

How many rounds to carry is a judgment call. Whether or not the number will prove adequate will always remain to be seen.

 

[David E]

This makes no sense!

I changed the word 'fact' to 'possiblility'.

And I said, based on you changing the word, that it's. "possible" one shot could suffice, or that 20 would not. Are you saying neither is possible?

The 30% number is just a commonly known stat that refers to the NYPD's hit ratio.

I asked you to cite your source and you changed the word "fact" to "possibility.". If its "commonly known," then it seems one could cite the actual record.

If 30% hit ratio is all we could ever hope for,

I disagree. Many cops don't have the aforementioned mindset and skill and they get in gunfights, too. This contributes to the "commonly known" 30% hit ratio. I refuse to defer to the lowest common denominator. Obviously, everyone reading this thread already has the proper mindset and skill regarding this matter, or so I've been told.

But I'll stick with 11 shots in-gun being "enough.". I always carry a reload, regardless of capacity.

 

[coolluke01]

If you can't learn anything from this discussion then leave.

You have provided nothing but nonsense and drivel.

I changed to word because while this is commonly known data, it only pertains to the NYPD and not to us. That's why I didn't believe it could be justly called fact.
I can't believe an adult would be so childish.

I asked you to cite your source and you changed the word "fact" to "possibility.". If its "commonly known," then it seems one could cite the actual record.

Go away grownups are having a conversation!

If 30% hit ratio is all we could ever hope for,

I don't care if you agree or disagree with this comment. It's not a comment about the 30% figure! Rather it's a comment about how IF this is the best we could do it may have an effect on how we approach which weapon to carry.

This statement that we can't ever learn anything from this because there are too many variables is so frustrating! Nothing may be able to be proven but data could shed some light on this for us.

 

[coolluke01]

Here is an article that I found interesting. Here the link to the whole thing. http://thinkinggunfighter.blogspot.com/2012/03/self-defense-findings.html

For the period 1997 – 2001, reports of 482 incidents were examined. All involved the use of firearms by private citizens in self defense or defense of others. No law enforcement related incidents were included.
The majority of incidents (52%) took place in the home. Next most common locale (32%) was in a business. Incidents took place in public places in 9% of reports and 7% occurred in or around vehicles. The most common initial crimes were armed robbery (32%), home invasion (30%), and burglary (18%).
Overall, shots were fired by the defender in 72% of incidents. The average and median number of shots fired was 2. When more than 2 shots were fired, it generally appeared that the defender’s initial response was to fire until empty.
Handguns were used in 78% of incidents while long guns were used in 13%; in the balance the type of firearm was not reported. The most common size of handgun was the .35 caliber family (.38, .357, 9mm) at 61%, with most .38s apparently being of the 5 shot variety. Mouseguns (.380s and below) were at 23%, and .40 caliber and up at 15%.
The range of most incidents appears to be short but in excess of touching distance. It appears that most defenders will make the shoot decision shortly before the criminal comes within arm's length. Defenders frequently communicate with their attackers before shooting.
The firearm was carried on the body of the defender in only 20% of incidents. In 80% of cases, the firearm was obtained from a place of storage, frequently in another room.
Reloading was required in only 3 incidents. One of those involved killing an escaped lion with a .32 caliber revolver, which was eventually successful after 13 shots.
Multiple conspirators were involved in 36% of the incidents. However, there are no apparent cases of drivers or lookouts acting as reinforcements for the criminal actor(s) once shooting starts. Immediate flight is the most common response for drivers and lookouts at the sound of gunfire.
The largest group of violent criminal actors was 7, who committed serial home invasions in Rochester NY. An alert and prepared homeowner dispatched them (2 killed and 1 seriously wounded) with a shotgun when they broke in his door.
Incidents rarely occurred in reaction time (i.e., ¼ second increments). Most commonly, criminals acted in a shark-like fashion, slowly circling and alerting their intended victims. The defender(s) then had time to access even weapons that were stored in other rooms and bring them to bear.
The most common responses of criminals upon being shot were to flee immediately or expire. With few exceptions, criminals ceased their advances immediately upon being shot. Even mouseguns displayed a significant degree of immediate lethality (30% immediate one shot kills) when employed at close range. Many criminal actors vocally expressed their fear of being shot when the defender displayed a weapon. Upon the criminals' flight, the "victims" frequently chased and captured or shot the criminals and held them for the authorities.
Analysis by Claude Werner

 

[David E]

Luke, your premise is faulty as is your attitude.

I suggest you carry an XDm and at least six magazines. That might be enough....for you.....

Best of luck to you.

 

[Kleanbore]

Let's knock off the argument, folks!

 

[Bubba613]

The spare magazine is mostly in case the first one fails.

A magazine failure is rare. If it does occur it will take the rest of one's life to fix it. You might was well carry an extra extractor and firing pin in case of failure.
When we speak about "average" what do we mean? I assume here we mean the mode, which is the most occurring event. The most occurring event is you confronting one or two assailants in a remote area with about 5 shots fired on all sides and over in seconds. Given the chances of even that are fairly small, I'm fine planning for that event accordingly. I've often thrown a j-frame in my pocket and feel just fine about it.

 

[Kleanbore]

Here is an article that I found interesting.

I will not argue that it is not interesting, but I would not draw any conclusions from it, either.

First, The Armed Citizen contains reports, voluntarily submitted, of successful defensive uses of firearms.

So, the fact that "the defender(s) had time to access even weapons that were stored in other rooms and bring them to bear" tells us nothing about how offen it is not possible to do so successfully.

It is not clear whether the "mean" number of shots fired was developed from all 482 incidents or only from the 72% that involved shots fired. No distribution is given.

The fact that the majority of the incidents reported took place in a home or business limits the usefulness of the data for concealed carriers. The majority of violent criminal attacks occur outside.

The mean number of shots fired in the Memphis data covered in Tom Givens' video Lessons from the Street is higher. Tom also provides a distribution.

This data set covers 63 SD incidents in which shots were fired.

Note the following:

• The mean number of shots fired was 4.7; no one fired 4.7 rounds; no distribution is given.
• 94% of the incidents occurrred in the out of doors.
• There were two or more attackers in 75% of the incidents.

And none of that tells us anything about how many rounds are "enough".

Nor does the discussion of a "30% hit ratio".

Determinants in the outcome will involve the following:

• Whether an assailant is predisposed to stop if he becomes aware that he has been shot.
• Where on his person the assailant is shot, how far the bullets penetrate, and what the bullets destroy or damage.
• How close the assailant is when he is shot, how fast he is moving, and whether the defender is able to get out of his way.
• The condition of the attacker.
• How many assailants there are, and whether a second attacker will decide to break off the attack or defend himself by continuing to try to neutralize the defender.

You will not find data on those things. Too many unknowns, too few equations.

 

[mljdeckard]

I would concur with others that say that the 30% figure is very much in question.

I would also recommend that if you carry, you strive and train to be better than average.

 

[Bubba613]

Statisticly this states CCW holders have a .017% chance of being involved in a shooting

From the link.
That's pretty small.
Also there are a lot of "averages" thrown around. But no sense as to what is meant. If you have 5 shootings and the defender fires one shot in 4 of them and in one he fires 17 then the "average" could be one, nine, or four point something.

 

[allaroundhunter]

A magazine failure is rare. If it does occur it will take the rest of one's life to fix it. You might was well carry an extra extractor and firing pin in case of failure.

Really? A magazine failure is rare? You do not shoot many semi automatic pistols, do you? The majority of malfunctions that occur with a semi automatic pistol can be directly attributed to the magazine. If you have a stovepipe then a tap-rack-reassess is needed, but if I get two stovepipes with the same magazine then that magazine is out of the gun and a fresh one is in. If you get a double-feed, the typical method of clearing it is to drop the mag first, rack the slide several times, and them insert a fresh magazine. No one wants to be searching the ground for a magazine, especially for one that has already caused a malfunction. All of this is why (IMO) anyone who carries a semi automatic pistol should carry a spare magazine.


Sent from my HTC One X

 

[Kleanbore]

Also there are a lot of "averages" thrown around. But no sense as to what is meant. If you have 5 shootings and the defender fires one shot in 4 of them and in one he fires 17 then the "average" could be one, nine, or four point something.

Yeah...

But if the analyst obtained his average from the total number of shots fired and the number of incidents, or if the number is anything point something, he is giving us the mean.

 

[mljdeckard]

Just because a magazine failure is rare doesn't mean we shouldn't be prepared for it. I don't remember the last time I actually experienced one, but I still train for them. A lot of bad things can happen during a gunfight. That doesn't mean you have lost or that you should just quit. But if you wait until THAT moment to learn how to do it, yes, you will probably die.

 

[Sam1911]

At the risk of adding what someone might consider a distraction from a critically important area of analysis, I carry whatever gear I carry when competing with a specific gun.

(So, two reloads for autos, three for revolvers.)

The reason is not that I have some idea that I'll need 24, 25, 58, or whatever rounds, but that I know that this gear is the same gear I've run countless times before, stowed where and how I expect it to be, and that the gun and mags will be right where I expect, in the condition I'm accustomed to, and that I've reduced to a minimum the operator error I'm likely to introduce into the system.

I spend quite a lot of my time not armed with a firearm. "No gun" has solved the problems I've run into so far in my life. I go armed whenever I am able, and expect that pretty much anywhere between "no gun" and 58-rounds-on-tap, I'll be adequately armed to meet the challenges of the day. I actually expect to live out my life without shooting anyone. I also realize I may be armed to the teeth and never even hear the shot that turns out the lights.

I've read way too many competing and non-compelling statistics on numbers of rounds fired, hit probability, relative terminal ballistics, wounding mechanics, etc., to believe that any decision I make about one bullet over another, one gun over another, or how many rounds to carry can, or should, be based on such notions -- or that there is any direct correlation between either of those choices and my probability of living to die a non-violent death.

 

[Bubba613]

But if the analyst obtained his average from the total number of shots fired and the number of incidents, or if the number is anything point something, he is giving us the mean.

Then those figures really aren't very meaningful. The small sample could easily be skewed by one outlying incident.

Just because a magazine failure is rare doesn't mean we shouldn't be prepared for it.

Extractor failures are pretty rare too (although more common than mag failures). So make sure to pack an extra one and practice changing it out.

 

[Sam1911]

Extractor failures are pretty rare too (although more common than mag failures).

No way extractor failures are more common than mag failures. I've seen mags fail MANY times, to competitors right in front of me, and to me personally, and can count the broken extractors I've seen happen with 1/5th of the fingers on one hand.

 

[Kleanbore]

Posted by Bubba613: Then those figures [mean values] really aren't very meaningful. The small sample could easily be skewed by one outlying incident.

Very true. As Tom Givens points out, "no one fired 4.8 rounds".

Nor do the mode and median values provide us with anything useful.

Distribution curves might be of some value, given enough data, but we do not have much data. And there are too many variables.

Trying to base anything on "real world data" is a fool's errand.

This requires a very judgmental assessment. If we are willing to accept that SD shooting is not like shooting bulls-eyes at the range, that people who are shot do not drop like they do on television, that the one shot stop is unlikely, and that there is a material chance if we are attacked we will encounter more than one VCA; we can address the question.

It becomes a classic risk management problem.

Of course, the first thing we have to do is throw out the fact that the likelihood of having to shoot at all is remote. Once the shooting starts, that's no longer relevant.

By the way, I do not know any trainers who do not recommend practicing very fast magazine changes, and the reason given is failures and not round count.

 

[Bubba613]

This requires a very judgmental assessment. If we are willing to accept that SD shooting is not like shooting bulls-eyes at the range, that people who are shot do not drop like they do on television, that the one shot stop is unlikely, and that there is a material chance if we are attacked we will encounter more than one VCA; we can address the question.

You are asking for a lot of assumptions, many unwarranted. There are many many one shot stops recorded. So to call it "unlikely" is difficult.

By the way, I do not know any trainers who do not recommend practicing very fast magazine changes, and the reason given is failures and not round count.

Given the lack of professional credentials in firearms training this is a non-argument. Some trainers recommend "shooting to the ground."
My impression from seeing accounts here and elsewhere of training is that much of it is bunk, most of it is not responsive to the needs of the armed citizen, and some of it is probably illegal. It does look and sound like fun, I'll give it that.

 

[coolluke01]

Ok. So there are many variables.

In a SD situation I think we can all agree that having 1 round would be nice to have. What about on the high end? I know some have just dumped a mag whether they needed it or not.
I haven't had a chance to look at the data posted by Kleanbore. That may shed some light on this.

I know we will not have a perfect set of data to work with. However I would be helpful to have some points of reference.