Educated guesses as to overall percentage of population that owns an AR-15?

[Frog48]

Anyone that has an interest in military style rifles and has seen any pictures of US troops
involved in the GWOT has seen many M16/M4 rifles. Think of it as 3rd party advertising.

You're definitely on to something. Media coverage of Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom has made AR15/M16/M4 style rifles more visible to the general public.

As a result, when people see AR's in gunshops, they begin to think, "Hmm, that could be fun to shoot..."

And I wouldnt necessarily consider it a "wannabe" thing. Its just that when you see something constantly, you can become subconsciously attracted to it.

 

[bubbaturbo]

You know if you go to the ATF site, they have statistics for who made how many firearms in 2006. Some are hard to figure out but Bushmaster looks like 60-65,000 rifles, Remington and Savage a lot more.

 

[Nomad101bc]

AR-15's are renowned for accuracy and very popular for competitions. They do require maintenance but for such a light weight and accurate firearm its no mystery why they are so popular among sport shooters. I think the black rifle may be somewhat of a generation gap with us youngins taking to them. I'd imagine the pre-vietnam shooters have no interest but anyone under 40 will most likely have an interest.

 

[JKimball]

I've been wondering the same question, so I've been watching this thread with hopes to get a good answer. So far nothing very certain.

Seems like it is possible to figure out a rough order of how many AR15s are out there in civilian hands - make a list of manufacturers and add up their totals for AR15s sold to civilians. But I don't see an easy way to figure the percentage of the population that owns one.

In theory, you could conduct a survey of a random sample of U.S. residents, making sure you got enough to be statistically significant, and you would get a pretty accurate idea. But realistically, how many of us would respond to a survey asking if we owned an AR15? Haha. Probably wouldn't get very accurate results.

 

[benEzra]

You know if you go to the ATF site, they have statistics for who made how many firearms in 2006. Some are hard to figure out but Bushmaster looks like 60-65,000 rifles, Remington and Savage a lot more.

I'm not sure if that list is comprehensive. For example, I seem to recall that in one recent year I was looking at, Lewis Machine & Tool supposedly made 1 rifle, while the numbers from some other manufacturers seemed legit. I seem to recall a disclaimer that some of the publicly available data set is edited by BATFE because the companies responding said it was competition-sensitive or whatnot, but it has been a while since I looked at it.

I'd love to have the numbers for all AR manufacturers for the last several decades, but I don't know if that data exists.

 

[Caimlas]

Hard to say. I'd guess that most AR15 owners with a substantial wad of cash own at least two, maybe as many as 10-15, so they'd obviously skewer statistics. I think there are probably just as many, if not more, AKs and/or SKS rifles (including the 30-round variant) in common circulation due to the price point advantage.

If I were to wager a guess, I'd say that maybe half of those under 40 who own more than 5 firearms own an AR. It seems to me that 40 or so is the "age cut off" from the "old guard" who like wood and blued metal exclusively, and the younger generations that are more open to techy things. Though, there are still a fairly large number/percentage of "bubba gun owners" who just own a shotgun or three and a rifle or two - for hunting purposes only.

 

[benEzra]

There are definitely more SKS's out there than AR's. I read a couple of years ago that someone at the Georgia Arms Collectors' Association did some digging and estimated that there were then at least 7 million SKS's in U.S. civilian hands. That's two million more than the Ruger 10/22 (I think) and only a million units behind the ubiquitous Remington 870 shotgun.

 

[WoofersInc]

Most of my current shooting partners own multiple AR's. I own 3 of them myself. The numbers sold are probably large but it is most likely to people like myself who already have 1 or more.

 

[elmerfudd]

I think the number of AK's must be pretty high too now. I see as many AK's on the rack at the local gun shops as I do AR's and due to the lower entry price I'd guess they sell at least as many if not more. otherwise why waste store space on a product with a smaller profit margin? Or maybe it's just that AK's are the ultimate non-PC rifle so fewer stores stock them and those that do sell more of them.

I don't see so many SKS's for sale anymore.

 

[wuchak]

AR's are (I believe) the #1 selling centerfire rifle in America right now

I don't think so. I'll bet they are high on people's wish lists but down near the bottom on actual sales. They are just way to high priced for most people. When a nice .308 bolt gun with scope can be had for $600 it makes $800 for a basic AR look pretty steep. I'm guessing the list is probably similar to the following:

-30-06 bolt action
-270 bolt action
-308 bolt action
-.243 bolt action
-30-30 lever action
-308 semi-auto
-30-06 semi-auto
-7mm mag bolt
-other bolt actions
-other semi's
-other lever's
-AR's
-pumps

I would be seriously shocked if AR's outsold leverguns but they probably outsell pumps. You see lots of accessories for the AR's because the guns are easy to swap pieces into and hang things off and there is a huge installed base of compatible guns in use by the military and police forces. They are also expensive so if you could view the demographic data for AR owners I think you would see most are toward the upper end of the income scale. Meaning they have lots of money to spend on accessories. There are not a lot of useful accessories for lever guns.

We need to be careful when using personal experience to make inferences about the country as a whole. If you see an AR sold every time you go to the gun store what does that mean about the number of AR's in the US? Just because this store appears to be selling quite a few doesn't mean that anyone is selling any at all in other places. It could be this store has the best prices and selection of AR's in 200 miles so people drive out of there way from the surrounding area to come there and buy one. It could be this store is located in a very affluent area. It could be near a club that is heavily into 30 gun. If you see people buying Thunderbird every time you go to the wine store it would be silly to make the assumption that it was the most popular wine in the US and that it was wonderful.

 

[benEzra]

I don't think so. I'll bet they are high on people's wish lists but down near the bottom on actual sales. They are just way to high priced for most people. When a nice .308 bolt gun with scope can be had for $600 it makes $800 for a basic AR look pretty steep. I'm guessing the list is probably similar to the following:

-30-06 bolt action
-270 bolt action
-308 bolt action
-.243 bolt action
-30-30 lever action
-308 semi-auto
-30-06 semi-auto
-7mm mag bolt
-other bolt actions
-other semi's
-other lever's
-AR's
-pumps

I would be seriously shocked if AR's outsold leverguns but they probably outsell pumps.

From Outdoor Life, July 2007:

http://www.outdoorlife.com/article.jsp?ID=21010945&typeID=700&categoryID=0

The AR-15 carbine, the bastard child of a nasty jungle war halfway around the world, is indeed the Swiss Army knife of firearms. The butt-ugly poodle shooter has morphed into not only the longest-lived battle rifle in history, but in civilian hands a mainstay for competition, self-defense and, most recently, many flavors of hunting. In fact, walking the miles and miles of aisles at the 2007 SHOT (Shooting, Hunting and Outdoor Trade) Show made it clear that "black rifles"--rifles derived from military platforms, like the M-4/M-16, the AK-47, the M-14 and the FN-FAL--not only are the best-selling rifles in America, but are the unequivocal driving force in the industry today.

The numbers are staggering. AR-platform guns are approaching handgun-level sales and may soon surpass even Jeff Cooper's mighty 1911, which has ruled the sales roost in the firearms world for the last two decades.

What's the best-selling ammo in America? Try the .223/5.56, standard fodder for the AR-platform guns. Other top performers? Well, there's the 7.62X39, food for the AK-47 and its hundreds of variants, and, of course, the .308/7.62 NATO, feeding the more traditional "battle rifles" like the M-1A, a hot seller, and the reborn FN-FAL. Last I heard, the best-selling "traditional" hunting caliber on the list was the .45/70, of all things.

This seems consistent with the limited BATFE production data I've seen. Note that some of that refers to black rifles in general, of which the AR platform is only one example, but some refers specifically to the AR platform.

BTW, it is true that AR's are a bit pricey, but still, purchasing an AR-15 is generally cheaper than hunting, if you factor in the other gear you need, hunting club fees, etc. And plenty of people of average means hunt. They're also inexpensive compared to a set of rims for your Civic.

I believe, but cannot prove, that the majority of AR-15 buyers are under 40. Most of the "black rifle" owners I know are Gen-X and Gen-Y.

 

[TheGrimReaper]

I got 2 of them does that count?

 

[ny32182]

I've wondered.

I expect that many millions of AR pattern rifles are sold, but I would guess that those sales have only really picked up strongly in recent years starting at or shortly before 1994. That still makes them a drop in the bucket compared to all the firearms in civilian hands.

I would also expect that a very significant percentage of those people who own them own more than one, and that those people actually shoot a lot more than the average gun owner.

On the one hand, I don't recall ever being to any range, ever, anywhere, and not seeing at least one AR. (not including mine of course ) There is always someone else there with an AR. Always.

On the other hand, since I suspect AR owners are much more active shooters than most, I would also guess that the total percent of gun owners that own one is probably 1% type range (vast, vast majority of total gun owners probably inherited grandpa's bolt gun and haven't shot it in ten years). From there the percent of the total population is easily computable... if you put the total percent of the population that owns at least one gun at, say, 33% (this is a fairly accurate number), then you've got 1% of 33% of the total population owning an AR... about 0.3%.

Some states I'd guess it is considerably higher or lower based on local laws.

This concludes my speculations in this thread.

 

[3pairs12]

I own a lower reciever does that count? I also know people that own numberous ARs, but I would still guess only 30% of gun owners have an AR. Maybe 6% of pop.

 

[Slugless]

I believe, but cannot prove, that the majority of AR-15 buyers are under 40. Most of the "black rifle" owners I know are Gen-X and Gen-Y.

That's what I see at the range. The older men who shoot ARs are the right age to be Vietnam vets & typically they shoot stock A2s w/ iron sights and I've seen one A1 without a FA. They also tend to shoot some standing / offhand whereas the younger shooters almost always stay on the bench.

 

[H2O MAN]

ARs & M14s

When it comes to rifles at the range, it's mostly ARs, a few AKs and some hunting rifles.
I see more ARs than any other rifle @ the places I shoot.

I shot AR type rifles exclusively for 17 years (from 1983 to 2001). I walked away from the platform to try
out the M14 platform and ended up going completely nuts over the platform, but that's another story...
I can't wait to break in my new Colts and see what has changed and what remains the same.

 

[Mr_Pale_Horse]

Wow, the 2007 shot show. Well, I went to the Detroit auto show. Based on what I saw, we all drive Hydrogen Fuel cell cars, plug-in hybrids, and monstro flex fuel SUV's.

Oh, and all chicks dig cars and are really HOT!

No doubt the AR is a growth area. Lets not confuse growth with actual sales.

 

[LMTD]

Interesting thread

Well since this is exactly my second thread many may not give it much merit but I will put it out there anyway.

I would bet that the AR ownership percentage is nearly the same as the handloader/reloader percentage.

AR's like reloading seem to be a HOBBY inside the world of firearm ownership. Most of the folks I know with ARs are constantly looking for the next best thing and changing the AR. Reloader/handloaders are always seeking the best cartrige etc.

It is a hobby within the firearms community and I would bet a box of .45 at 1.25 OAL with 200g LSWC pushed by win231 5.5g and win large primers to 825 fps, it is within 5% the same

 

[benEzra]

Looking at the BATFE manufacturer statistics for 2006 in Excel, and assuming for the sake of argument that they are comprehensive, I found that of 1,492,959 rifles manufactured in 2006, at least 217,214 were AR's, based on adding up the numbers from the ones I knew to be AR manufacturers. That means that 1 out of every 6.8 rifles sold in the U.S. that year was an AR-15 (not even counting AK's, SKS's, M1A's, and other "assault weapons").

If you back out rimfire sales, it's pretty clear that the AR is definitely in the top 5 centerfire rifles, and probably #1 or #2.

That also suggests a million AR's are sold every 4 or 5 years.

 

[kurtmax]

Not as many people at it seems probably. All of the people I know that own AR15s own alot of them. Every single person I know who bought a rifle for SHTF bought an AK variant....

 

[easy]

Maybe Zumbo knows!

 

[jason10mm]

Well, about 10% of rifles I see for sale at gun stores are AR-15 pattern rifles. Never seen one on the consignment rack either. Priobably a more useful number is what % of HOUSEHOLDS have an AR-15 in them, as there are only 100 million households. So I figure 1-3% have an AR-15 at the very least.