How many of you actually believe that the outcome of the election will directly affect gun laws?
Not a bit. The fact the it was pro-gun Dems that delivered control of the Senate to the Dems was duly noted by the Democratic Party leadership, and by Obama and his buddies.
Despite all of the whining on THR, Obama is pretty much a centrist - US (general) elections are always fought at the the center. That's more or less a side effect of a two party system.
If you need to verify any of this - search for the silly Obama lawsuit against the NRA. The lawsuit is silly, but read the fact check on the NRA letter. If Obama was really that bad, then the NRA would not be compelled to lie and distort his record in order to create a viable scare tactic. If Obama was really that bad, then the NRA could actually tell us the truth without distortion.
I fully expect Obama to win (and I started this election as a McCain supported, and gave him money) - I think the Republican infatuation with deregulating and spending like drunken sailors has doomed McCain.
The credit crisis/bailout looks more or less like a Republican created crisis to the general public. That may even be a fair assessment.
Whether it's accurate our not, it looks like the Republicans deregulated us into this mess, and now they want to stick the taxpayers with either a trillion dollars in excess debt, or tax the heck out of us to pay for it.
It's pretty obvious that they won't raise taxes, so we have a choice between the "tax and spend" Dems and the "spend and spend and spend" Republicans.
On top of that, the economic crisis has move foreign policy so far of the front burner that most people have completely forgotten about it.
So I think an Obama win is a forgone conclusion.
The good news is that I expect lots of hand-wringing by the Dems about "gun control" - but almost no action. There are Dems who want "gun control", but not badly enough to lose control of the Senate.
This could change if the fall election turns into a general Republican rout. I am a little nervous about that. Most folks understand by now the Republican claim about lowering spending and taxes was just a bald faced lie - Clinton in his worst days couldn't have created this much debt. And to be fair, the results are in on the Republican claims about the joys of deregulation. And the results ain't good.
So here's my overall predictions:
- Obama will win. I don't see anyway around that - unless there is some major terrorist attack on US soil. Even if that happens, I don't know if it's enough to swing the election - it would prove the Bush administration policy is not working. The Republicans are sort of stuck here. If the policies of the current administration succeed (as I think they will), the foreign policy will stay on the back burner. Only a policy failure will move foreign affairs to the front burner. But then it will be a Republican failure the brings foreign policy to the front burner.
- If there is not a Republican Congressional rout, then no change in gun control. I don't expect a rout - incumbency is powerful. The Dems will want to keep control of the Senate at nearly any cost, including gun control.
- If there is a Republican Congressional rout, all bets are off. This scares me. The current crew has really messed this up.
Mike