Expect Ammo and Component Shortages

[beatledog7]

Retailers warn of a shortage, based on the history they have seen. Buyers agree; it's time to stock up. Suppliers/distributors note that many manufacturers are running behind at filling bulk orders...

If all this is true, one wonders why the manufacturers of ammo and components were asleep at the switch. Don't they study the markets? Or was it a shortage of raw materials? But don't the collectors and refiners of the required raw materials study the markets?

Consider these possibilities:

Levels of supply are normal; no shortage is actually looming. The industry recognizes a way to experience increased profits by withholding supply for a short time, foregoing sales revenue in one quarter to enjoy significantly higher profits on those same sales in future quarters by artificially bumping up prices for as long as consumers can be made to believe the higher price is justified due to shortages.

Inventories are fat, and retailers prefer to turn stock at full retail or even at a premium rather than at a discount. A fictional shortage, accompanied by carefully controlled release of existing stocks, creates an environment in which discounts are not needed.

I'm not saying there won't be any sort of real short-term shortage of some items; such things are part of normal cycles. But we can make shortages much worse by being afraid of them.

 

[35 Whelen]

Thinking back, the problem in '08 was twofold: the possibility of electing a a Democratic president, AND the on going war in the Middle East. The fracus over there was causing the use of lots of ammunition which made components scarce.

35W

 

[Yotecallr]

Well, you still can't buy new IMI 223 brass because of the situation Israel is facing.

 

[longdayjake]

Okay, I am one of the guys that actually sells this stuff so let me tell you what is going on right now. To be honest, last week I had more orders than I had in three weeks of February. I thought I had stocked up enough stuff to keep me supplied but I am already seeing shortages. Not only that, but I am getting so many orders that me and my help are having a hard time keeping up with shipping. The post office had to get a bigger truck to haul off our stuff.

So, I call all my suppliers to try to get more stuff. Guess what I get? I get "we are busy right now, let us call you back." Usually they call us back within an hour or two. Last time it was 4 days before they called us back and it was only to tell us that they don't have enough stuff to fill my orders. The only good news I got out of this is that I was able to work out a deal to keep stuff in stock but there may be times when we sell out and have to wait for stuff simply because they are selling out so fast. Last week I had almost 50k 220 grain Sierra Match Kings and they were all gone within 3 days. You can try to blame us suppliers but the truth is customers are freaking out and we are just trying to keep up. One thing I know for sure. ALL of my suppliers are threatening to raise their prices. Graffs is just telling you to get your orders in before prices go up. Cause they will.

 

[wkumatt]

I was in my favorite LGS today fondling yet another CZ when the big brown truck showed up. Four guys took about 15 minutes to bring it all inside. There were four other guys in the shop and when the Tula bulk .223 came out they bought it all. The first guy glimpses it in the box and asks a price. When he gets it he buys 2k. That starts the conversation about impending shortages and the other 3 guys immediately buy 1k each.
Shop owner says that's all he got for that shipment. That stuff never even made it to the shelf! As far as I heard none of those guys were even in there to buy ammo. So I guess with all I'm hearing SGAmmo will get my order today.

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[cougar1717]

This cycle is just making me sick. Uncertainty > Fear > Panic > Hoarding > Inflated prices > Supply catches up > Demand drops > Bargain basement prices > 2-1/2 years of Apathy.

IMHO - why don't we just convince our neighbors to vote republican and then just not worry about it?

 

[r0ttie1]

Thinking back, the problem in '08 was twofold: the possibility of electing a a Democratic president, AND the on going war in the Middle East. The fracus over there was causing the use of lots of ammunition which made components scarce.

35W

And the difference now is?

 

[cvo]

No shortage here.

 

[helotaxi]

In late '08 early '09 as well, some of the ammo manufacturers had just laid off employees because of a lull in sales when the panic buying began. They had to rehire, re-vet for FFLs and then fill a huge order for Uncle Sugar to resupply the war effort.

Well now we're out(ish) of Iraq and drawing down in Afg., the gun business has really been booming for the last 4 years so no layoffs leading into this year's election, BUT more people have gotten into shooting and reloading in the last couple of years so there's a large consumer base that's worried about what the future may hold. Factor in that the economy is in even worse shape than 4 years ago and the possibility of a major economic collapse is very real thanks to the Fed simply trying to print more money to cover the run-away federal spending...

 

[preaction]

The last gun show here, oaks pennsylvainna, the opening at 9am the line was about 200 yards long. We came out after 3 1/2 hours and the line to get in was twice as long. This is just outside of philadelphia. This is in responce to post #10, sorry.

 

[Redneck with a 40]

I'm sure glad I ordered another 1000 component bullets for .223, back in December, on sale for $68/1000. I've got enough powder to load them all and I have "plenty" of primers. The one thing that will disappear in a flash is .223!

I've got enough loaded ammo and components to carry me for about 1.5 years, 40 S&W, 9mm, .223, and .308.

All of this will look completely idiotic when a Republican gets into the White House. All that panic in 2008 and what has Obama done to restrict guns?! Nothing!!

 

[longdayjake]

All that panic in 2008 and what has Obama done to restrict guns?! Nothing!!

I think the problem is that nobody can predict what he will do. I mean who would have guessed that he would double the national debt in one term? He seems pretty determined to do everything that his political ideology desires and the rest of the country be damned.

 

[Damon555]

This cycle is just making me sick. Uncertainty > Fear > Panic > Hoarding > Inflated prices > Supply catches up > Demand drops > Bargain basement prices > 2-1/2 years of Apathy

Prices never came down....yeah, you don't see $75 per K primers anymore but paying $32 per K is still hard to swallow while I have boxes on my shelf marked $15.99 per K.

I always keep plenty of components on hand....My shelves are well stocked and ready for any shortages. I don't do this because of panic buying, I do it to save money by buying in bulk.

This is not very organized right now because I've been loading like crazy so I have plenty of ammo for this summer.



Oh and my philosophy on presidents is this.....The first term is nothing too crazy because they need to get reelected....But the second term is when they can put all of their radical legislation in place because getting reelected is not going to happen.

 

[Fishslayer]

I think the rush has been on for a while. Firearms were a big item last Christmas and the female population has been buying them up in the last year or two way over the norm.

Guns are popular and are getting more popular. I kind of think it is a good thing.

I'm pretty sure a lot of those new gun owners are finding out what we've known all along. Recreational shooting is FUN!

 

[evan price]

Learn to reload and cast and stock your supplies deep now. That way you avoid the panic buying and the shortages. Choose components with a wide and varied usefulness. a pair of 8# powder jugs can load many many thousands of rounds. A couple cases of primers and a bucket of brass and a few bricks of lead will keep you shooting pistol for years to come.

 

[R.W.Dale]

Will shooters continue to believe the sky is falling if a different gun banning leftist liberal gets elected in November.

Probably not because even as gun owners for the largest part that R or D is all we see.

See the sig line.

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[Neutered10mm]

This brings up a good opportunity to discuss powder choice. While some 'fast' and 'unforgiving' powders are more dangerous if your scale is off or if you don't weigh each round, but they sure do stretch your dollar. This coming from a guy with a recent kB in my Glock with a reload, but I have identified the cause of my failure and ensured it won't happen again. I'm reloading .40 S&W and use a mere 4.5 grains of Hodgon's Titegroup with Rainier 165 gr bullets. This equates to being able to load 1550 rounds of .40 S&W per pound of powder! I just placed an order with Missouri Bullets to test them out since I took the kB as an opportunity to get a M&P 40 so I can now do lead reloads and save even more.

 

[W.E.G.]

I'm not sure why people post pics of their hazmat inventory.

You might want to read the fire code.

 

[Striker Fired]

I'd say a good part of this "panic" buying and shortages are due to the "end of the worlders" or "preppers". So many tv shows are preaching this or supporting the behavior,that it is causing alot of new gun buyers to buy huge quantities "just in case". Add to that now eveyone is going to place huge orders ,if the mfg's are having trouble keeping up already,this mass buying will CAUSE the shortages.

 

[LiveLife]

This coming from a guy with a recent kB in my Glock with a reload, but I have identified the cause of my failure and ensured it won't happen again. I'm reloading .40 S&W and use a mere 4.5 grains of Hodgon's Titegroup with Rainier 165 gr bullets ... I just placed an order with Missouri Bullets to test them out since I took the kB as an opportunity to get a M&P 40 so I can now do lead reloads and save even more.

Nice going on the M&P40 and Missouri Bullet.

But you really should try W231/HP-38 for 40S&W that's more forgiving pressure wise. 180 gr lead TCFP and 3.8-4.1 gr of W231/HP-38 works very well in my M&P40. Hate to have you start another KB thread titled ... "Well, guess what happened with my M&P40 and Titegroup ... "

Be safe but have fun!


OK, back to OP. As to reloading components, I am good for about 5+ years in pistol/rifle. I'll buy some more components at the next gun show if the prices are not too bad and plan on ordering some more online with the tax refund.

 

[Redneck with a 40]

I just took an inventory of what I have:

1000 rounds of .233 loaded and ready to go.

Enough components, powder, primers, bullets and brass to load 1000 more.

About 1500 rounds of 9mm, half of it reloads.

1400 rounds of 40 S&W, all reloads. I only need bullets to load 1000 more.

300 rounds of .308 loaded and enough components to load 500 more.

2500 rounds of .22 LR

500 rounds of 22 mag

2000 rounds of 7.62x39 for the SKS

9 lbs of .308 and 223 powder

9 lbs of pistol powder

5K of small rifle primers

4K of large rifle primers

7K of small pistol primers

I'm swimming in brass for everything!

There won't be any shortage here! Go ahead with the panic buy, have at it!

 

[Walkalong]

I bought 2K primers and a pound of powder at the gun show yesterday. At 3:00 PM he still had plenty of both.

Will there be shortages again this year? Probably, as the makers have just caught up, and there will be a little more panic buying, plus all the new reloaders in the last 3 years, etc.

Will it be as bad as last time? I seriously doubt it.

 

[CraigC]

Yep, as usual, the stupid hoarders will ruin it for everybody. Sorry but I refuse to give in to Chicken Little thinking. It's sad when shooters can't find supplies because a handful of idiots have bought everything, thinking the world is about to end. Don't be part of the problem.

 

[Nico Testosteros]

Surely with the drawdown in Iraq there is a lessened demand for ammo by the government and more availability of resources for the civilian market?

 

[R.W.Dale]

Yep, as usual, the stupid hoarders will ruin it for everybody. Sorry but I refuse to give in to Chicken Little thinking. It's sad when shooters can't find supplies because a handful of idiots have bought everything, thinking the world is about to end. Don't be part of the problem.

Look on the bright side though. When you run across a craiigslist ad that turns out to have thousands of primers unopened for half what they cost new and 8lb keg after keg of powder that's usually brought to you by a hoarder. A dead one anyway that the widow wants to turn his man cave into a sewing room.

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