How long til panic stops?

[breakingcontact]

I've been dollar cost averaging everything for 7 years.

Good stuff.

If they tie major gun control legislation to "must have" fiscal emergency stop gap measures...makes me sick to think of that possibility.

Off to REI for some fiscal cliff bars.

 

[B!ngo]

I think that there is a strong possibility that after a month of investigation led by Joe Biden, there will be a Presidential Order that will dramatically affect the eligibility and sales process of all firearms-related products:
Raising taxes on ammunition as well as firearms,
Federal registration of any new firearm,
Mental health background sign-offs on purchase eligibility (doctors sign-off),
Perhaps even a 'right to purchase' card based on such checks,
No internet sales of firearms or ammunition.
There will probably be grandfathering of owned firearms because 'bring out your guns and they will be destroyed' will never fly.
It's unlikely that just limiting magazine size or using CA's method of defining an 'assault weapon' will be enough because Connecticut had those provisions.
It is unlikely that there will be renewed focus on mental health issues in the country with such programs having been eroded and dismantled for the past two decades. Too expensive. Same for guards at schools.
An extreme view perhaps, but it is possible if done quickly before the shock and grief of the murders wears off. Yes, the courts will test all of this, and there may be huge protests from gun owners. But once done, it is harder to reverse. The two other parts of government will have no choice but to just watch it all happen.
Whatever happens, there is little debate that there has been a massive impact on sentiment beginning two weeks back and what priorities and processes that have been in place will bear little on what happens next.
V

 

[smithman 10]

Written your congressman yet?

Hey Bingo - Have you written your congressman yet? You paint a pretty dismal picture and absolutely none of it has to happen if gun owners quit whining and get up on their hind legs and fight back.

First - And probably most posters already are members, but if not - JOIN THE NRA!

Second - Write, call and email your senators and congressman.

Third - Urge all the other gunowners you know to do the same.

Let's quit all this moaning and growning about some inevitable gun ban.

 

[gotigers]

Most of those policy changes will require new law. With a GOP majority in the house it won't happen. Hell, i am not so sure they can get it thru the senate. Presidential memos are possible, but wont stand up to the courts. Gun rights have won most court cases. If it was a sure fire winner, obummer would have taken it up himself. But he gave it to biden. He saw the numbers. Why mess with guns, when he has an economy to destroy.

 

[Viper187]

Amazing. People still think they can change things. Politicians only know how to cut backroom deals and push their own agenda. They don't listen to anyone. They never learn anything. Anti-gun, anti-freedom idiots will never change. Imagine what we could do with all the money these jackoffs waste getting elected every few years.

 

[Art Eatman]

I imagine that the Congresscritters are quite well aware of the buying frenzy now occurring. Some of them are even smart enough to count potential votes. 21 million NICS checks so far this year, after 16.5 million last year. The last twenty years have seen the sale here of some 190 million firearms. Even with multi-gun customers, that's still a helluva lot of votes.

 

[B!ngo]

Hey Bingo - Have you written your congressman yet? You paint a pretty dismal picture and absolutely none of it has to happen if gun owners quit whining and get up on their hind legs and fight back.

First - And probably most posters already are members, but if not - JOIN THE NRA!

Second - Write, call and email your senators and congressman.

Third - Urge all the other gunowners you know to do the same.

Let's quit all this moaning and growning about some inevitable gun ban.

Yes, yes I have in fact. Got a canned response. My note went unread of course. And now I'm on his donation mailing list.
To add, I wonder if the 'ask Congress', 'lobby Congress', use the power of 'the fear of losing an election' might be becoming immaterial. They don't ever seem to listen, Congressional support levels are at single-digit lows, and they are running in fear over the budget issues. Moreover the NRA really does seem out of touch with the national narrative to many elected officials, and their constituencies.
Conversely, the President has a mandate for greater change (whether he's earned it or the republicans gave it away is irrelevant) with a strong election outcome.
Regardless, I am just taking a dispassionate look at the situation and proposing one potential scenario.
V

 

[sleepyone]

Before the 2008 election, I bought my first AR at Academy, a S&W M&P 15 OR model for $1,100. A few months after the 2008 election, I bought three more for $700 each from CDNN after the $100 S&W rebates. I sold all those later and made a small profit, but I wish I had them now. To get a jump on the pre-election panic that happened just like clock work this fall, I bought another one in the spring from Academy for $900, which I will NOT be selling.

This panic seems different from the first two. The gun/sporting goods stores are way more packed. I can't really tell you how the last gun show was because the traffic was backed up two miles from the gun show. A friend who actually made it in the building reported an hour wait and said you could not get to any table selling ammo, mags or AR stuff. When you see $900 ARs selling for $2,500-3,000 on Gunbroker, it is clear that something is different this time.

 

[Warp]

I think that there is a strong possibility that after a month of investigation led by Joe Biden, there will be a Presidential Order that will dramatically affect the eligibility and sales process of all firearms-related products:
Raising taxes on ammunition as well as firearms,
Federal registration of any new firearm,
Mental health background sign-offs on purchase eligibility (doctors sign-off),
Perhaps even a 'right to purchase' card based on such checks,
No internet sales of firearms or ammunition.
There will probably be grandfathering of owned firearms because 'bring out your guns and they will be destroyed' will never fly.
It's unlikely that just limiting magazine size or using CA's method of defining an 'assault weapon' will be enough because Connecticut had those provisions.
It is unlikely that there will be renewed focus on mental health issues in the country with such programs having been eroded and dismantled for the past two decades. Too expensive. Same for guards at schools.
An extreme view perhaps, but it is possible if done quickly before the shock and grief of the murders wears off. Yes, the courts will test all of this, and there may be huge protests from gun owners. But once done, it is harder to reverse. The two other parts of government will have no choice but to just watch it all happen.
Whatever happens, there is little debate that there has been a massive impact on sentiment beginning two weeks back and what priorities and processes that have been in place will bear little on what happens next.
V

Won't happen

 

[Ignition Override]

If Congress manages to pass legislation which only limits the larger magazine capacities, but doesn't ban certain rifles, most of this could cool off pretty quickly. During the previous so-called "AWB", the AKs missing certain features were still available.

As somebody stated, the White House needs to deflect our attention away from the results of their anti-business policies, and their lukewarm efforts to seriously negotiate on helping the economy (Excluding govt. growth).

gotigers: Good point. With the hot limelight on certain sport utility rifles and normal capacity magazines, at least attention is away from bolt-action ammo such as .303 and surplus eastern European Maks, P-64s etc.
Maybe it's a good time to also buy some .22 ammo.

 

[Hunter125]

If you were not ready by now shame on you.

Some of us are not so blessed to have that much disposable income at once. I'd like an AR or AK, but my family and grad school tution for my wife and I tends to take priority.

I say shame on you for assuming everyone can buy what you can.

 

[mortablunt]

Wait until mid February, assuming we haven't had a ban put into place yet.

 

[bikerdoc]

I say shame on you for assuming everyone can buy what you can.

Dude, I live on social security and a pension. It is you who are assuming. Been paying much attention the last 10 years?

I put 4 kids though college and grad school. We are raising 2 grand kids.
I dont own an AR or AK.

I got milsurps, Cheap.

As for ammo I am stockpiled because of a disciplined policy of buy 2 boxes shoot one, reload the empties.

 

[NCsmitty]

With the persistent dumbing down of America that's occurring, liberal ideology continues the anti-gun legislation rhetoric, and it seems that our gun freedoms will continue to wither on the vine.
If you didn't vote in the November election with your gun rights and America in mind, then don't whine.


NCsmitty

 

[leadcounsel]

Panic is here to stay unfortunately for at least 6 months, possibly until MORE pro-gun Reps are in office, and until it's clear that little or nothing will happen to negatively impact guns. We're talking 6 months, possibly 2 years until election, or until a pro-gun President is in office. Sadly, Obama will likely appoint anti-gun folks to the SCOTUS. Hate to say "I told you so" but I shouted this from rooftops to everyone I knew before the election. Lots of naysayers, including folks here who just didn't believe it. :banghead:

So, as I see it, there's many angles and options. Chime in on the liklihood:

This can happen either through new laws or Executive Order.

New laws require majority votes in Senate and House, and then signature by the President. Senate is majority Democrate and House is Majority Republican. Anti-gun laws will likely be along party lines, with a few swing voters. President will happily sign into law ANY gun laws before him.

a. High Cap mag bans past/current/future. I think this is likely, banning FUTURE manufacture and import and possibly sale. Overall, I still think this fails in at least the House, for now.

b. Private transfers. The 'loophole' will almost certainly be on the table for guns, and possibly mags and ammo. We may go the way of Illinois needing a special card to buy ammo. Online sales may go away. All could require a special background check to buy or sell/transfer. I think this will become law, at least for guns.

c. Deeper mental health ownership restrictions. Possibly for anyone that has sought mental health treatment, including PTSD and TBI. I Possibly a total ban for you or anyone in your household, much like felony restrictions. think this will happen.

d. Gun/ammo import restrictions. Expect a total ban, probably not through law, but through EO.

e. Special Weapon registry. I expect either through law or EO, the ATF will tighten down on our beloved AR15 and AK type weapons. There could certainly be a registry. (We all know that will lead to confiscation one day.). Other than the NDA from a few years ago, I'm not aware of any prohibition, and the "well regulated" language of the 2A doesn't help argue against it. DC v. Heller protects handguns but didn't go quite far enough to protect these weapons, unfortunately.

So, for now, I think we'll see some encroachments. Hopefully not too terrible, but terrible just the same. As a result, I think prices will be a solid 50% higher for anything on the ban list or ammo and mags than they were in November 2012 probably until after at least the next Congressional elections, and then possibly longer depending on the outcome.

 

[leadcounsel]

@Viper187 who said:

Is manufacturing magazines really that difficult? I mean it's xmas time, and the economy still sucks. Am I the only one that thinks these things are selling out a little too easily? It's not just AR stuff either. Even Glock mags are sold out a lot of places. This sucks. I wanted to save Some money and get some type of AR in the spring, but I'm afraid of what prices and backorders will be by then.

What are you guys doing, if anything? Stocking extra ammo, more guns, or more mags? We already have an old Colt AR-15 in the house, but I'd like something of my own.

It appears that YEARS worth of stocks have been sold in mere days. If you waited until now, then shame on you. There have been years of warnings, including electing an anti-gun President who said he wanted a gun ban in October 2012. Open up your wallet if you want something. If 3 years of stocks were sold in days, and you can imagine the back orders, there will be long lines and high prices.

 

[Cosmoline]

I suspect virtually nothing will happen for the time being. The Congress is at such an impasse it cannot even get a budget passed and we're about to fall into the autocuts to prevent total collapse. Talk of some grand new gun laws is just talk, at least for the short term.

But longer term, the Dems hope to have a locked down majority in both houses and the WH, with redistricting making red areas redder and freeing blue dogs from the need to appease gun owners. That, plus demographic shifts and the decline in the GOP's base will give them a chance to pass some draconian gun laws in the next decade.

 

[leadcounsel]

If they tack it on to the fiscal stuff the Republican's are in a really hard spot. It will be really bad if they don't pass any fiscal plans. People will be so pissed when this country goes down an economic toilet bowl that they'll vote out the Republicans that "didn't pass it". If they let it pass we will likely make them pay dearly and the Democrats will probably pick up ground.

Not clear how the "cliff" is the fault of Republicans, who have little power.

Some of us are not so blessed to have that much disposable income at once. I'd like an AR or AK, but my family and grad school tution for my wife and I tends to take priority.

I say shame on you for assuming everyone can buy what you can.

Sorry, but little sympathy. The warning signs have been ample. An AR/AK costs probably the same as a single Grad School credit hour. Cut spending on "luxury" items like women tend to stockpile at high retail prices (shoes, purses, makeups, etc.), or cut out lattes, or whatnot. I bought my first AR15 during the ban in 2002, for $900, while in an over-priced law school. The only mags available were overpriced crappy surpluse aluminum with green followers.

From 2010-2012, 2 full years, AR/AK prices were incredibly low. I bought several ARs in the sub $700 range, and several AKs in the $450-500 range. That $1 per day for about 2 years if you amortize that... So there's zero financial reason that folks couldn't have afforded at least one, if they wanted it. And mags! OMG. I have been buying AK mags as low as $5.50 each, and AR mags as low as $5 each (used) and $8 each new. I've seen them even lower!

I listened to the warning signs and poured my excess income into my guns, mags and ammo (and the best gun safe to store it in)! Shame on you if you were asleep at the wheel. I mean seriously, we have the most anti-gun leadership EVER in power, who just said in October he wants to ban guns. Biden was partly responsible for the 1994 ban (I think he co-authored it or something). Dems hold the Senate. They've pushed forward and unilaterally passed very unpopular laws like Obamacare and gays in the military. Gun prices skyrocketed in 2008/9 when Obama was initially elected. You had to know this was coming. What more warnings would a person need?

 

[308win]

All of this "if you didn't see this coming" is wasted energy. What we have is reality for at least four more years. Depending on how deftly the House leadership/membership handle the fiscal cliff could result in the makeup of the House changing enough that anything could happen. And all of this ignores the make up of SCOTUS. We may be at a watershed now.

 

[Kachok]

I cannot guess how long the craziness lasts, no ammo anywhere, no high cap magazines no ARs, SKSs, or AKs anywhere. Good thing I load my own ammo or this craziness would really piss me off.

 

[wingman]

With the persistent dumbing down of America that's occurring, liberal ideology continues the anti-gun legislation rhetoric, and it seems that our gun freedoms will continue to wither on the vine.
If you didn't vote in the November election with your gun rights and America in mind, then don't whine.

Agree, liberal public schools,liberal media, decline of morals,values, violent TV,movies, video games add increased mental illness and very little care for those who suffer and we have a recipe for disaster,the far left has long wanted and dreamed of a socialist utopia and now they have one of there true believers in office we have a long difficult 4 years in front of us.

Support any second amendment group you can,(money talks)write letters to your Representatives,often.

 

[Ignition Override]

Kachok:
Last night I saw lots of SKS varieties on Gunbroker. Considering that prices in March '08 often were about $300, along with recent panicky chat, last night's prices were not bad.

Some had been available for over two days with 0 bids.

Seeing a decent Russian for $475 and either an Albanian or Romanian for about $250 was proof that many people with ready cash either don't know about GB or like the SKS, don't want to use it and pay shipping + FFL costs, or they basically want to follow the fashion of seeking ARs, AKs and Vz-58s.
As this panic happened so close to Christmas, there are tons of semi auto centerfire sport utility rifles for decent prices.

 

[taliv]

not really on topic for rifle country