While some people dispute what Marshal and Sanov have come up, thier data shows that the Federal 125 gr .357 had 111 one stop shots out of 117 shooting for a 95% success at one shot stops. This data was compliled from 1992 to 1996.
For some reason I can't find the darn sheet that has the same years stats for the 230 gr HydraShok.
http://www.thehighroad.org/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=1842412#
Cussing
I believe it was only about a 2% difference though. In truth I don't believe that the small percentage in difference has much of an impact. There are many, many more factors that are much larger influnces. Like I stated earlier, I can shoot my single action .45 far better than I could revolver with its long (and comparativly heavy) double action trigger. This is not true for everyone however. But for me it is, so I'll stick with my .45.
These days just about all premium ammo of any caliber will expand reliably at reasonable combat ranges. The thing is that there are so many variables to deal with that no single round is best at all of them. You have to take certain things into account. For instance, I live pretty far north. It's cold here in the fall and spring, not just in winter. Most people wear heavy coats or several layers of warm clothing, including the bad guys. If a hollowpoint hits those layers of fabric or even a single heavy layer, the hollow part of the bullet tends to act like a cookie cutter and the cavity fills up with the material and you instatnly have non expanding ammo. I think just about everyone will agree that when it comes to non expanding ammo, a bigger frontal area it always better. This is only a single variable and obviously doesn't apply to everyone, or even to me all the time. But is one that I consider.
Have a COMPLETELY reliable handgun, in the largest caliber that you are comfortable shooting accuractly and quickly and fill it with premium ammo. And practice, practice, practice. Chances are you'll do just fine. Even with only one shot.