Iran is only a few months away from creating an atomic bomb
- Thread starter jsalcedo
- Start date
- Status
Waitone
Member
Mr. McGoo speaks. Who knows what reality is? I know! Just watch Israel. It will not let it go unnoticed. Israel can not afford to have nukes pointed at it.
Mad Chemist
Member
If you swap the n for a q, it sounds just like a speech Condoleeza Rice gave about three years ago.
1911 guy
Member
Some countries can not be reasoned with.
I'm opiniated about the subject, and I realize that doesn't make me right all the time, but here's my opinion. Before we go digging up the Iraq thing, remember that all Iraq had to do to forestall an invasion was allow full access to U.N. inspectors. Not U.S., but U.N. So we were right to enforce the terms of the 1991 cease fire as set forth by the U.N., but they were not interested in enforcing their own rules due to comfy kickbacks from oil-for-food.
Secondly, Iran is one of several arab states that have stated national goals of eliminating the state of Israel. Why should it surprise us that they are pursuing a nuclear capability and option? If two dirt poor counrties like India and Pakistan can get the bomb, anybody can. For that matter, I can tell you how to make a backyard version in your basement. All they have done is spend the money to get the right tools and tech. to make good ones and have a delivery system. On the international black market, that's like buying weed. Nearly everybody knows somebody.
I'm opiniated about the subject, and I realize that doesn't make me right all the time, but here's my opinion. Before we go digging up the Iraq thing, remember that all Iraq had to do to forestall an invasion was allow full access to U.N. inspectors. Not U.S., but U.N. So we were right to enforce the terms of the 1991 cease fire as set forth by the U.N., but they were not interested in enforcing their own rules due to comfy kickbacks from oil-for-food.
Secondly, Iran is one of several arab states that have stated national goals of eliminating the state of Israel. Why should it surprise us that they are pursuing a nuclear capability and option? If two dirt poor counrties like India and Pakistan can get the bomb, anybody can. For that matter, I can tell you how to make a backyard version in your basement. All they have done is spend the money to get the right tools and tech. to make good ones and have a delivery system. On the international black market, that's like buying weed. Nearly everybody knows somebody.
1. Iran on the threshold of nuke capable (this article).
2. Iran getting ballistic missiles with 2000 mile capability, from N. Korea (taepo dong 2).
3. Iran signs $1billion deal with russia for tactical sams (tor m1).
Israel, clearly won't sit by passively as these situations come to fruition. the short term prospect look somewhat biblical, though we're not supposed to talk about religion on this board...
2. Iran getting ballistic missiles with 2000 mile capability, from N. Korea (taepo dong 2).
3. Iran signs $1billion deal with russia for tactical sams (tor m1).
Israel, clearly won't sit by passively as these situations come to fruition. the short term prospect look somewhat biblical, though we're not supposed to talk about religion on this board...
Dannyboy
Member
The problem with Israel doing anything is that Iran learned from what happened to Osirak. Their facilities are spread out and buried. Not to mention the fact that Israeli planes have a much longer ride this time around.
Waitone
Member
Whaddya wanna bet Israel has been running practice missions in the USofA? Rumors of unmarked planes and personnel in the SW US. I don't see the US acting, but I do see Israel acting with full (but deniable) support of the US.
Manedwolf
member
Mad Chemist said:
+1.
What happened to those "photos of the Iraq WMD facilities" they had, anyway? Did they get lost at some D.C. one-hour photo?
Manedwolf
member
hammer4nc said:1. Iran on the threshold of nuke capable (this article).
2. Iran getting ballistic missiles with 2000 mile capability, from N. Korea (taepo dong 2).
3. Iran signs $1billion deal with russia for tactical sams (tor m1).
Israel, clearly won't sit by passively as these situations come to fruition. the short term prospect look somewhat biblical, though we're not supposed to talk about religion on this board...
4. Someone DOES fire off a nuke, and the fallout plume makes its way across the world. Cancer rates skyrocket from Europe to the US.
Whee.
Silver Bullet
Member
That sounds interesting. Do you have a web site link that shows geographically the location of all Israeli subs ? Some sort of satellite-imaging, submarine infra-red signature identification and monitor system ?
Manedwolf
member
WT said:
Bit too much Tom Clancy, there, not enough NIH studies on radiation-induced sickness and cancer.
Please live in the real world. ANY nation that uses nuclear weapons would be committing the ultimate evil, and one that would impact generations to come in horrible ways.
With the longterm effects, anyone using one to stop someone else from using one would be akin to poisioning a city's water supply to prevent someone else from doing it.
wingnutx
Member
Dannyboy said:
Bingo. They can't pull the same trick twice.
Of course, this doesn't mean they don't have any new tricks up their collective sleeve
Zundfolge
Member
Manedwolf, turn down the hyperbole a notch or two.Manedwolf said:
A couple ... a few ... hell even a dozen nukes (especially low-yield tactical nukes, not the super megaton "city killing" nukes we had aimed at the soviets) are not going to have some sort of large, global effect. 99% of the "fallout" will be political, not radioactive. The radioactivity will be localized and much shorter lived than the fear mongers during the cold war told us (remember all that fear about nukes during the cold war was about a large scale exchange between us and the Soviets ... which included hundreds, if not thousands, of the larger nukes).
Kinda reminds me of those folk who where afraid if we had a nuclear exchange with the soviets that we'd rip a hole in the space time continuum.
At any rate, your attitude is shared by a lot of people (no matter how misinformed I believe that opinion to be), so anyone using nukes will probably suffer politically for a long time to come. Thats why I don't see the Israelis using them (especially since they can do the job with non nuclear weapons).
Silver Bullet
Member
WT said:
I was just kiddin', WT. It would be great fun to call up a web site and track military movements, though.
benEzra
Moderator Emeritus
Not with the number of nukes that would be involved in an Israel-Iran scenario. The total megatonnage would be only a tiny fraction of what the U.S. and USSR tested above-ground in the '50's and '60's. In fact, I bet the combined nuclear arsenals of Israel, Iran, India, and Pakistan at the moment are probably smaller than just ONE such test, that of the Soviet 'Tsar Bomba' (which was 50,000 kT at the reduced test yield...design yield was 100,000 kT). Not to say there wouldn't be fallout effects downwind, but that they would be unlikely to be all that widespread, and not serious outside the immediate region.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba
(Yes, I know the Tsar Bomba was a very "clean" design, but a bunch of other tests in the 15,000-25,000 kT range weren't...)
wingnutx
Member
Zundfolge said:Manedwolf, turn down the hyperbole a notch or two.
Kinda reminds me of those folk who where afraid if we had a nuclear exchange with the soviets that we'd rip a hole in the space time continuum.
I did that once with an MRE bomb. The wife was pissed.
Considering how many we popped right there in New Mexico, i dont think this is a realistic concern.
The plus side is that we could finally lose the distinction of being the only nation to detonate a nuclear weapon in anger.
The obvious downside is that when one nation starts using them in the modern era the stigma suddenly lifts and they become a viable weapon again in an unstable region that has resources that interest every well-armed nation in the world. Thats a nasty combination.
I think that the UN has some very nasty motives in allowing this to continue. They have noticed that their power and influence is waning since the close of the cold war. Their constituents just arent terrified enough to fall into lock-step with everything they say anymore, were starting to ask too many questions. Terrorists are scary, but they dont instill that deep-seeded individual terror that the prospect of nuclear war provides.
bg
Member
Looks like Iran and Russia are getting a lil busy with each other..
How bout a 1 billion dollar sale of SAM's to Iran..>
http://www.yahoo.com/_ylh=X3oDMTEybGQxYTN0BF9TAzI3MTYxNDkEdGVzdAN2Mjk4BHRtcGwDdjI5OC1jc3M-/s/263957
How bout a 1 billion dollar sale of SAM's to Iran..>
http://www.yahoo.com/_ylh=X3oDMTEybGQxYTN0BF9TAzI3MTYxNDkEdGVzdAN2Mjk4BHRtcGwDdjI5OC1jc3M-/s/263957
shootinstudent
Member
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2005
- Messages
- 786
And there you have the reason no one is using them against enemies right now.
There's also the fact, besides fallout, that any nuke in a city will kill millions of noncombatants...there's a moral consideration some people might take into account.
An attack on Iran to solve this nuke problem is silly, IMO. The technology is out there, and if Iran isn't the first, then some other state that hates Israel in the region will build one after Iran is attacked...and it will have that much more incentive to strike first, claiming the right of preemptive attack to foreclose Israeli preemptive strikes.
The only answer that makes any sense at all is to find a way to improve relations between Israel and all of its neighbors. That will take concessions, negotiating with terrorists, and lots of other things that no one wants to do, but seriously...look at the numbers. In the long run, trying to bomb every problem out of the way is going to fail.
SB - information about secret US military movements is readily available at your local Russian Embassy. The Russkies get their info from their moles in the Pentagon.
The New York Times once admitted it got location info on the USS ENTERPRISE from the Russian military attache.
The New York Times once admitted it got location info on the USS ENTERPRISE from the Russian military attache.
- Status