Iran is only a few months away from creating an atomic bomb

[ArmedBear]

More news I can't do anything about. And since they can't hit the CONUS with it, what diff does it make to any of us????

If they build a nuke, or perhaps the day before it will be ready, Israel will nuke Iran. They will have no choice, since Iran's nukes would be destined for them, and they're smarter to shoot first in this case.

This could have slight repercussions for the US. Maybe.

 

[rick_reno]

U.S. Army report: Israel can't stop Iran nukes

http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/05/front2453710.0027777776.html

WASHINGTON — Geopolitical limitations render Israel's air force militarily incapable of halting Iran's nuclear weapons program according to a new report published the by U.S. Army War College.

The report asserts Israel lacks the military capability to locate and destroy Iranian nuclear assets. The report said the Israel Air Force cannot operate at such long distances from its bases.

"The Israeli Air Force has formidable capabilities and enjoys unchallenged supremacy vis-à-vis the other Middle East air powers, but Israel has no aircraft carriers and it cannot use airbases in other Middle East states," the report entitled "Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran," said. "Therefore its operational capabilities are reduced when the targets are located far from its territory."
[On Sunday, Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz warned that diplomatic pressure would not stop Iran's nuclear weapons program, Middle East Newsline reported. Halutz was one of three senior Israeli officials who warned that Iran would soon be able to turn into a nuclear power.]

In an article authored by Shlomo Brom, former head of air force strategic planning, the report said Israel's deep-strike air capability was based on the F-15I and F-16C/D aircraft. At a range of more than 600 kilometers, Brom said, Israel could not sustain an air campaign. Iran is about 1,000 kilometers from Israel.

"It is possible to determine that at long ranges — more then 600 kilometers — the IAF is capable of a few surgical strikes, but it is not capable of a sustained air campaign against a full array of targets," the report said.

An Israeli air attack on Iran must also include such support aircraft as air refueling, electronic countermeasures, support, communication, and rescue, the report said. The mission would also require precision intelligence.

Brom said Israel's intelligence and military community was divided over the Iranian threat. He said military intelligence regards Iran as determined to destroy Israel. The Mossad and National Security Council see Teheran as preoccupied with national defense and regime survival.

"While the first school assumes no political pressure can force Iran to stop its military nuclear program, the other school believes that political pressure can be effective in at least delaying the nuclear program significantly," the report said. "The second school believes that a nuclear Iran with a different regime will not pose a high risk to Israel and can be easily deterred."

The report said the Bushehr nuclear power plant was vulnerable to attacks but does not constitute a key element of the military nuclear program. As a result, the destruction of Bushehr would not have a significant effect on Iran's military program.

Brom said Iranian nuclear assets are located between 1,500 and 1,700 kilometers from Israel. The report expressed doubts whether such Israeli allies as India and Turkey would allow Israel to launch a military strike from their territory.

"This means that the Israeli attack aircraft would have to take off from air bases in Israel, fly 1,500-1,700 kilometers to the targets, destroy them, and then fly back 1,500-1,700 kilometers," the report said.

The Israel Air Force has 25 F-15I and 137 F-16C/D fighter-bombers. The air force has already received more than 20 F-16Is, with longer range on the F-15I, but the report said the F-15I aircraft contains greater capabilities at long ranges.

The report said the F-15I has an operational radius of 1,270 kilometers. The F-16I has an operational radius of 2,100 kilometers while that of the F-16C/D is 925 kilometers.

But the report said the real operational radius was shorter because the planes would have to fly at low altitude to avoid radar detection. Brom said the Israeli aircraft could avoid Iranian air defense but would be detected.

"In any case, any Israeli attack on an Iranian nuclear target would be a very complex operation in which a relatively large number of attack aircraft and support aircraft — interceptors, ECM [electronic counter-measures] aircraft, refuelers, and rescue aircraft — would participate," the report said. "The conclusion is that Israel could attack only a few Iranian targets and not as part of a sustainable operation over time, but as a one time surprise operation."

 

[R.H. Lee]

Well, one way or another, if Iran sticks it out there, somebody will come along and lop it off. Damn shame it will be done with only conventional weapons, though.

 

[lysander]

How do you spell pretext?

I spell it: Iranian nuclear arms program.

 

[Cousin Mike]

If you swap the n for a q, it sounds just like a speech Condoleeza Rice gave about three years ago.

+1 on that

 

[1911 guy]

Regarding air power range

Israel has updated the F-16 beyond what we have provided them or even fly ourselves. F-16I has very updated electronics package and longer range. Airframe has been modded in rear stab area to house electronics package, so the differences are visible if I can find a pic to post. The important thing to remember is the range.

 

[ArmedBear]

"Geopolitical realities?"

If your country sincerely believes that it is about to be nuked off the face of the earth, it's amazing what sort of missions can be flown, and the sorts of risks that must and will be taken.

Geopolitical realities also rendered the US incapable of bombing Tokyo in 1942.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doolittle_Raid

HOWEVER... The geopolitical consequences of Israel's inevitable desparate act could be really, really messy.

 

[grampster]

Anybody who believes anything that Israel says publicly or has said about them publicly or describes their capability to defend their interests needs to contact me for a bridge sale I have going this week.

 

[Lone_Gunman]

Even if Iran is on the verge of developing nuclear weapons, the Bush administration does not have the credibility to convince the world of this until Iran detonates a test bomb.

 

[jsalcedo]

until Iran detonates a test bomb.

The question is: who are they going to test it on?

 

[longeyes]

WASHINGTON — Geopolitical limitations render Israel's air force militarily incapable of halting Iran's nuclear weapons program according to a new report published the by U.S. Army War College.

The report asserts Israel lacks the military capability to locate and destroy Iranian nuclear assets. The report said the Israel Air Force cannot operate at such long distances from its bases.

If Israel uses airpower it will be to neutralize Iran's defensive forces. They have other ways of delivering killing power to stationary targets like nuclear installations.

 

[Standing Wolf]

By the way, nobody seems to have taken time to thank esteemed ex-president Jimmy Carter for all this.

We, uh... do appreciate esteemed ex-president Jimmy Carter, don't we?

 

[Dannyboy]

Even if Iran is on the verge of developing nuclear weapons, the Bush administration does not have the credibility to convince the world of this until Iran detonates a test bomb.

Too bad it was the IAEA that said it and not the US.

 

[Lone_Gunman]

Too bad it was the IAEA that said it and not the US

It doesn't matter, if Bush is going to take action (which he won't of course), he is going to have to say it too, and then it will become his allegation.

This is analagous of course to the WMD in Iraq, which UN said Iraq had, but now responsibility is laid on Bush.

 

[Master Blaster]

What rest of the world do we need to convince????????????

France?
Germany?
Russia?
Pakistan?
North Korea?

These are the folks who sold Iran the materials and equipment needed to make their dream of Islaamic Amegeddon and 72 virgins possible.
These folks all know that Iran has the ability to make a Nuke and deliver it to a target up to 2000 miles away, because they sold Iran the equipment and or gave them the plans.

Folks who ask why they should care??????? You all dont own cars or have jobs?????

Rendering 1/2 the worlds known oil reserves and supplies unusable will affect you even if you dont have a car.

 

[roo_ster]

Rendering 1/2 the worlds known oil reserves and supplies unusable will affect you even if you dont have a car.

But, if they keep screeching, "No blood for oil! No blood for oil!" they can make the law of supply and demand null & void.

 

[Augustwest]

Damn shame it will be done with only conventional weapons, though.

Ummmmm...No, it really isn't.

 

[Glock Glockler]

shootinstudent,

There's also the fact, besides fallout, that any nuke in a city will kill millions of noncombatants...there's a moral consideration some people might take into account

Hmmm, Israel could drop a nuke that will kill people in Iran or it could do nothing and allow Iran to kill millions of Israel's people, that doesnt seem like much of a moral dilemma to me.

An attack on Iran to solve this nuke problem is silly, IMO. The technology is out there, and if Iran isn't the first, then some other state that hates Israel in the region will build one after Iran is attacked

Ok, a death to Israel state builds a nuke and Israel bombs the hell out of them, cause and effect. me thinks that would actually be incentive not to try and build a nuke while chanting "death to Israel"

...and it will have that much more incentive to strike first, claiming the right of preemptive attack to foreclose Israeli preemptive strikes

Claim that right all you want, Israel already has nukes so it seems they have a head start, and I don't see Israel bombing country's nuclear facilities that don't have nuclear facilities.

That will take concessions

How much in the way of concessions have they already offered?

negotiating with terrorists

Nothing like positive reinforcement to influence someone not to do something.

and lots of other things that no one wants to do

Maybe because they won't work or are counterproductive.

In the long run, trying to bomb every problem out of the way is going to fail

In the long run, you have to make it past the short run to even get to the long run. Iran getting a nuke and an ICBM and then dropping it on you isnt very conducive to that.

 

[Tokugawa]

The assessment of Israels air strike capacity was sort of stupid. Filled with facts and missing the point. If the Israelis really believe they are going to be under a nuke attack, they are not going to engaging in a prolonged war out side thier aircrafts combat radius. What they will do is fly one way mission"s with nuke armed aircraft and finish it right now. Islam is not the only religion with people willing to run a suicide mission-

 

[shootinstudent]

Ok, a death to Israel state builds a nuke and Israel bombs the hell out of them, cause and effect. me thinks that would actually be incentive not to try and build a nuke while chanting "death to Israel"

If you think that, you have got the mentality completely wrong. Knocking down the world trade center didn't convince America to leave the middle east; nuking a few million people in Iran won't convince middle eastern states that Israel is going to stay. Indeed, it'll likely turn even the Turks against Israel.

Claim that right all you want, Israel already has nukes so it seems they have a head start, and I don't see Israel bombing country's nuclear facilities that don't have nuclear facilities.

Misses the point. The technology is out there, and it's only a matter of time before someone who hates Israel gets one. You can dream about nuking the whole problem away all you want, but it won't happen. What if, after Nukes hit Iran, the Pakistanis decide to send a clandestine package into some middle eastern state's hands???

How much in the way of concessions have they already offered?

Regarding Israel, none. Virtually zero. The only response has been warfare so far to most of these problems, and it doesn't seem to have worked too well the past 50 years.

Maybe because they won't work or are counterproductive.

It's better than a proven failure.

In the long run, you have to make it past the short run to even get to the long run. Iran getting a nuke and an ICBM and then dropping it on you isnt very conducive to that.

Which is why you have to find a way other than "nuke Iran" to prevent that from happening. The "nuke Iran" option guarantees violence against Jews and Israel for the next few centuries. The "let's try to deal with this problem like we dealt with religious violence in Northern Ireland" approach at least gives you a chance.

 

[Joejojoba111]

If they build a nuke, or perhaps the day before it will be ready, Israel will nuke Iran. They will have no choice, since Iran's nukes would be destined for them, and they're smarter to shoot first in this case.

This could have slight repercussions for the US. Maybe.

If the Iranians think like this too, then that pretty much explains why they want nuclear weapons of their own.

For some reason it seems that Iran shooting first at Israel = bad, while Israel shooting first at Iran = the Lord's work.

Not to mention that there are plenty of people in Israel who elect their own government, and they might want to have a say in the matter. I'd bet that they'd be HAPPIER with a MAD stalemate, than an israeli-initiated nuclear exchange.

Cmon, think about it, stalemate, or mutual annihilation. Stalemate, or annihilation. Stalemate, or annihilation.

And here's the bonus - if you decide to have the stalemate (don't shoot), then you can still have the option to choose annihilation LATER. If you choose annihilation first, you don't get to choose stalemate later on.

 

[Waitone]

. . . . and a nuclear statemate is precisely what the Iraelis fear. MAD with the Iranians. Israel can not act decisively in its own interests. Meanwhile Iran sponsors traditional garden variety terrorism inside Israel boundaries. So Israel has to suck up hit after hit after hit after. . . from Iranian sponsored goons and is able to do nothing to solve the ultimate problem.

Israeli leading-lights have all expressed concern of the implications of a nuke armed Iran, not because of the nuclear arms but what it means in terms of dealing with the real problem. The old MAD doctrine may have served the US and western europe well but I seriously doubt if it will serve the middle east as well. Israel has stated that it can not allow a nuclear armed Iran particularly with current management pushing the buttons.

 

[Manedwolf]

shootinstudent,

There's also the fact, besides fallout, that any nuke in a city will kill millions of noncombatants...there's a moral consideration some people might take into account

Hmmm, Israel could drop a nuke that will kill people in Iran or it could do nothing and allow Iran to kill millions of Israel's people, that doesnt seem like much of a moral dilemma to me.

(more Israel stuff)

The flag outside my home is an American flag, NOT an Israeli flag. I don't support them, I don't support their government, I don't support their agendas.

And it seems like that America's support of them only gets US kicked in the shin by their enemies. What do we get out of the deal, seriously?

Name one benefit to our absolute, continual excusing of everything Israel does?

 

[lysander]

Credit to Sting...

In Tel Aviv and in Tehran, there’s a growing feeling of hysteria
Conditioned to respond to all the threats
In the rhetorical speeches of the Iranians
Mr. Ahmadinejad said we will bury you
I don’t subscribe to this point of view
It would be such an ignorant thing to do
If the muslims love their children too

How can I save my little boy from oppenheimer’s deadly toy
There is no monopoly in common sense
On either side of the political fence
We share the same biology
Regardless of ideology
Believe me when I say to you
I hope the muslims love their children too

There is no historical precedent
To put the words in the mouth of the president
There’s no such thing as a winnable war
It’s a lie that we don’t believe anymore
Mr. Sheron says we will protect you
I don’t subscribe to this point of view
Believe me when I say to you
I hope the muslims love their children too

We share the same biology
Regardless of ideology
What might save us, me, and you
Is that the muslims love their children too

 

[Master Blaster]

Misses the point. The technology is out there, and it's only a matter of time before someone who hates Israel gets one. You can dream about nuking the whole problem away all you want, but it won't happen. What if, after Nukes hit Iran, the Pakistanis decide to send a clandestine package into some middle eastern state's hands???

Substitute United States of America for the Word Israel in the above statement. Thats why we should be concerned even if you do not support Israel.

If the Iranians think like this too, then that pretty much explains why they want nuclear weapons of their own.
For some reason it seems that Iran shooting first at Israel = bad, while Israel shooting first at Iran = the Lord's work.

JO JO did you read what the president of Iran said???? Why is it that folks like you refuse to believe that the president of Iran means what he says.
I dont hear folks in Israel saying they want to hit Iran and wipe it off the face of the map, have you???.

If Israel wanted to destroy Iran, they could do it today. Yes there are good guys and bad guys in the world.
Its not all relative.

Some of us know who the bad guys are because we have been listening to what they are saying and watching what they are doing.
Israel has NEVER said they want to destroy their neighbors, NEVER.

If you look at the middle east, every country there has either said they wanted to destroy Israel, or in the case of the largest countries has actually tried.

Israel is only at peace with folks who tried to destroy them, and whom Israel has soundly beaten on the battle field. Israel does not destroy other countries.
They are a democracy they are the good guys.