Most likely SHTF near you?

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Tom Bri

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Just wondering what most people think is the SHTF scenario most likely where you live. I live in a very dangerous geological area, with a big live volcano and earthquake faults. The big-forehead guys say we will be lucky not to have the big one in the next decade or two.

What specifically do you do to provide for your most likely SHTF local scenario? I have food and water prepared, a way to cook without gas or electricity, fishing gear, garden etc. No guns, I live in Japan, but I do have a bunch of bows and arrows!
 
Probably earthquakes although we haven't had a race riot in what, 12 years??

I can see armed rebellion if cable television were cut off.
 
Tom Bri - I'd like to take a serious shot at your question.

I believe that a desperate population is the most likely trigger for a realistic and extended SHTF scenario, and by far one of the most serious.

Any of the various localized problems like the geological ones you mentioned, and even moving all the way up to another “9 - 11†type incident will usually bring in plenty of support from other areas, and most folks should keep their cool. For those that can’t (or won’t) behave, and depending upon your distance from ground zero, local law enforcement should provide you with most of your solutions. You may need nothing more than your “normal†day-to-day emergency stock of equipment.

A desperate and freaked-out population, like an extended “have†vs. “have not†scenario is another matter entirely. This is THE serious one, as any official help may become extinct for long periods. Desperate people, like hungry parents that are also watching their kids slowly starve will easily rationalize a ton of anti-social behavior if it will improve their situation.

Many factors could trigger such events, like depression-like stock market/financial circumstances, or these days, or some multiple, serious terrorist actions where even those in NO immediate danger may feel the urgent need to evacuate potential target areas . . . like most big cities. That equates to lotsa folks "camping" - and without equipment.

As to just what equipment and supplies will be needed, it's dependant upon your common sense, financial situation and chosen location. Advice on specific items and supplies can be found in many of the survival books, and even in some of the better SHTF threads.
 
Earthquake. I live about 3 miles from the wasatch fault line, and they say it's overdue to move.

It's kinda funny, the fualt runs right across the mouth of a local canyon where I used to shoot, BYU has had a research team up there digging on it to study at one time, now they've shut the range down:cuss: and built a yuppie housing development complete with a damn golf course:cuss: :cuss: :fire: there.

I wonder who was brilliant enough to hand out building permits for the area?

I stock water, food, blankets, clothing, a first aid kit, and the tools to maintain possesion thereof.
 
I'm living near Stuttgart. EUCOM is located on the other side of the city, so CNDs or a terror attack could be thinkable.
As for natural desasters, I was recently told by a colleague that the area is not exactly inactive regarding earthquakes. There's no river nearby and floods can be ruled out. Storms could be possible, as we're pretty exposed.
Social desaster, riots? Well, those soccer fans are unpredictable...
 
Here in southeast VA, a hurricane is probably the most likely event. But with all the military around here, some sort of terrorist attack is definitely a possiblity.

Thankfully, hurricane Isabel didn't lead to anything like Andrew did in Florida... but the possibility is there.
 
I suppose SHTF needs to be defined within the context of my environment. I prepare for home-invasion more than any other self-defense scenario. All my doors and windows are bolted and locked. I have my choice of semi-auto rifle, 12ga shotgun and/or pistol. I keep lots of ammo and loaded stripper clips and mags handy.
There is a lot of drug activity in my town and in my neighborhood. Meth-heads are unstable, usually armed, unpredictable and hard to put down. I consider drug-dealers and drug users just as dangerous a threat as terrorists because they are already here and killing large numbers of our population. I assume I'll have to keep shooting until the threats, and I assume multiple threats, are neutralized. Based on what is happening in the NW Oregon region, this is the scenario that most likely will happen in my area. Home invasion robberies are a cottage industry in the Portland metro area.
I do remain flexable and ready for almost anything.

Skunkabilly made a comment "I can see armed rebellion if cable television were cut off". I would be doing the happy-dance and throwing a big party. My wife would be coming after the cause of the outage with a very bad attitude and my prized Hungarian M-44, bayonet extended.

ZM
 
I go with skunk - here in So Kali, we all know The Big One is coming and most do something to prepare. We have our camp stove and fuel, 100 gal fresh water, canned and dried food, lots of ammo (and guns! of course :D ) and a semi -informal understanding among the neighbors of what the defendable perimeter should be and how to deploy if needed. Oh yeah, batteries and radios, FRS 2-Ways for local comm, etc.

Oh, and I have DirecTV, so Screw The Cable Guy! Dies Irae! mumble mumble rant rant :scrutiny: :uhoh: :D
 
Earthquakes, terrorist attack, chemical emergencies and both natural and refined gas emergencies are possible. I keep a tube of red lipstick handy.:eek:
 
Earthquakes or BRAC.

I highly doubt that our base will be affected by the BRAC, but if it were that'll be a SHTF scenario for a town of ~30k which relies on the gov't for it's main source of employment.

Otherwise, it'll be if the townsfolk run out of cigarettes or fast food.

Jim
 
Lets see. After sept 11th, the Media got freaked out about things that may be prime targets for serious BG's.
So they researched, and found the targets that, if attacked, would cause the most damage to our society.

THEN, they published the list of the sites, targets, where they were, how long a drive, consequenses etc. I dont know about you, but I dont think it was the smartest thing to do.

There a freakishly big Dam a little north of here, that dries up an entire valley. Blow that dam, and everyone in the valley dies.
The city in the end of the valley, with 80 000 inhabitants, will be seriously damaged.

I dont think its likely to happen, but its something for me to think about.
A few weeks ago someone stole around 650 kg of explosives from the Military, too... :uhoh:
 
Our biggest risk is that a bunch of drunk bubbas will break into the local tractor supply store, steal some John Deeres and Kubotas, and go on a plowing rampage in the middle of the night. Oh the horror! The old standard of rock salt in old Bessie, both barrels, and them boys will find their way home very quickly.
 
Riots. I live in Raider country. :p

We had small echoes of the Rodney King riots, and things have only gotten worse since then. I don't think it would take much for a riot here, and the PPD is shorthanded as it is (although they do a great job with available resources!)

I'm not really that worried about earthquakes. My house will be fine. It's the resulting food riots that will give me the need to repel boarders.
 
I live a little outside Portland oregon, and I think the biggest risk is a race riot. Just a couple of days ago a grand jury decided not to indict a white Police Officer who shot an unarmed black man, and the black community in Portland is yelling and screaming, and trying to change policies.

Basically, the man the cop shot had enough crack in his system to kill a normal person (that's the way the medical examiner put it), plus 5 bags of crack in his pockets, and his mouth. The cops pulled him over, he fought them when they tried to get him out of the car, and he made a sudden motion that the officer thought was him going for a gun. One shot.

Last year, a (white) Portland Police Officer shot and killed a (black) pregnant women, when the lady tried to drive away with the Officer half in the car. Oh, she was on crack too it turns out, and had her other children taken away.

So right now the black community, rather than fighting the crime in their neighborhoods, are calling for these officers to be charged with murder, and are trying to inflict policy changes at the police dept. Some members of the community have gone so far as to recommend fighting the police, and some are paying bounties to get photos of certain officers, so that the community can deal with the officers in question.

It is only a matter of time before another member of the community is shot and killed, and the community goes into full race riot mode. I also predict the shooting will take place in one of the suburbs, Canby, Beaverton, Wilsonville, Tigard, Sherwood, some place like that.

I.G.B.
 
Just wondering what most people think is the SHTF scenario most likely where you live.
Click to expand...

Chicago. A SHTF waiting to happen. After that, something happening to the nuke plant in Byron.
 
Mt. Ranier is close by, and supposedly overdue for an eruption.

I live in a small (30k) military town, so race riots are not my worry. We do, however, have limited access onto the island. One bridge, and 2 ferry routes are the only vehicular access points onto the island. The bridge itself was built in the 1930s, is 2 lane, and doesn't limit foot traffic under/over it.

In all seriousness, the bridge would be my main worry, WRT SHTF scenarios. No bridge = no food deliveries to the supermarkets, no fresh water (or sewage), and most importantly, NO INTERNET!
 
New Madrid Fault in MO would do SIGNIFICANT damage all up and down the Mississippi River. Western TN, St. Louis MO, Southern IL would all be collapsed if the NM Fault lets loose. And it's well overdue. I'd feel it here in the sacred lair of IN. Ohio would too. This could easily bankrupt the US gov.

Collapse in world economy. Look how fast the Tech bubble popped. Terrorist could really smack one on the world by hitting the USA's five biggest cities in one day, and hitting them with nukes.

Biological pandemic, like significant crop failure via drought, or disease. Leading to sickness, collapsing the health care system and economy and civil order.

Anything that leads to a collapse of civil order in more than two or three states is the most likely concern. How it gets started doesn't matter. Terror, riots, economy, oil embargo, Nuke war, whatever.

I actually think Rural areas could be the worst off if the civil order collapses.
 
A sudden shortage of caffeinated beverages would trigger the Apocalypse. What if terrorist types were to blow up all the Diet Pepsi pipelines in America? :)

Seriously, my biggest concern, already mentioned, is the threat posed by the meth trade.
Lots and lots of crime caused by meth heads looking to fund their next high.

Tim
 
Well, our own local SHTF is wildfire.

Going on to our 6th year of drouth.

Only recourse is for the wife to evacuate (if it gets that bad) while I am out on the fire line. Otherwise, we just try to stop them while they are still small.

Oh, and then there's the Yellowstone Caldera explosion. I don't think I will have to worry about that one for more than a few seconds. :)


If something bad happens somewhere else, I will just sit tight as I have already "bugged out" as far as I am bugging.
 
UnknownSailor...

" I live in a small (30k) military town, so race riots are not my worry. We do, however, have limited access onto the island. One bridge, and 2 ferry routes are the only vehicular access points onto the island."

Gotta be Whidbey Island, right? I lived in the Tacoma area for a while.
 
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