Most likely SHTF near you?

[TrapperReady]

The most likely SHTF scenario around here is if I buy another gun an my wife finds out about it.

Unless it's for her.

 

[Dave R]

In Idaho, the big three. Earthquake, volcano, flooding.

I visited Craters of the Moon a while ago. Great display on the areas volcanic history. The video display ends with "could go off any time, enjoy the drive throught the park while you can".

Separately, I asked one of the rangers when it was due to go off again. He said "now".

Hey, they're honest.

Then there's Yellowstone, which could blow up again...

And those volcanoes in Oregon.

And 3 dams upstream from the river that flows right through the middle of Boise...

Hey, WildAlaska, have you fogotten that the JAPANESE INVADED ALASKA less than 50 years ago!!!!

j/k

 

[Joe Demko]

Natural- flooding is always a possibility. Tornadoes not uncommon.
Manmade- Shippingport PA nuclear reactor is just a few miles away; I can see the plumes from the cooling towers. Crime is disproportionately high here and fueled mostly by drugs i.e. fighting over territory or committing crimes to fuel a drug habit. Pittsburgh airport's landing pattern takes big passenger jets right over the locale. When one went down back in the early 90's, it was just luck that it crashed into an empty hillside instead of one of the crowded milltowns that make up the area.

 

[OrvilleYertleson]

Well, I live on the metamorphic core of an ancient mountain chain (the appalachians) and while there are plenty of faults nearby, none of them are active enough to pose any real earthquake danger. Local Volcanoes are out of the question, as are Tsunamis (i'm in the mountains).

I suppose we could be hit by several months of severe winter weather that made the roads impassible, but I don't think that is very likely.

I think a social disruption is the only plausible cause for concern.

They could be caused by any number of external disruptions, such as disease, famine, gas shortage, small nuclear conflict, etc.

 

[Red_SC]

As the crow flies, I live maybe a mile or two from a nuclear power plant. I felt safer when I was working security there. I'll be moving to a safer distance soon, though.

 

[Arcli9ht]

30 something miles southeast of the Indian Point Nuke Plant. 10 miles east of NYC (Manhatten, I'm in the bronx) And right on the water.

1) Indian Point going up - This is why I bought a motorcycle. If the roads are jammed with cars, a bike can make it by. If the roads are not an option, I can steal a boat.

2) Martial Law in the city (lockdown) - Would be hard to live through, but not impossible. I would not follow the sheeple into a public shelter.

3) Riots in the city - Doesnt seem too likely, but its possible. It would take some long term SHTF for people to go to this. We went without power for a good three days without caving each others skulls in like ripe melons.

4) Biological Terrorism or a MAJOR disease outbreak in the city (Not the BS SARS or West Nile Virus). - This one worries me, but I'd steal a boat and high tail it north east up long island sound if it looked bad and I wasn't already dead.

5) Flooding - Unbolt the float from the end of the dock, float it up onto the lawn as the water rises, park the cars on it, and lash it to the house. Carry everything of value to the second floor. Prep the 2 small powerboats in the back yard for service (good luck... I'd be better off stealing new ones. )

6) Water cut off - Until I can figure out a rainwater system or a cheap cheap method of desalinization, I am dependent on city water. If it goes out without warning, I'll only have the bottled water around the house. If we have any warning... well, I'll fill the bathtub and fill garbage cans in the basement.

7) Food cut off - Have enough food in the house for an easy 4+ weeks, provided we have water.

8) Gasoline shortage - can lead to most of the previous. A nice low consumption bike can get me where I need to go, and a sailboat can get me out of dodge, if need be.

Thats all I can think of at work.

/Arcli9ht

 

[igor]

Russia, Russia and Russia. Their chernobyl-type reactors in Sosnovyi Bor, their organized crime, their increasingly militant society and their need to shift focus from the huge problems of life somewhere. the Russia.

And then our very own hoplophobes of the home office. If they can muster the clout to start making our military 3-gun equipment increasingly restricted, hell is going to rise. On a very small scale: the sheep won't give a darn. Once they go for the hunters' gear, the scale will be bigger. Five per cent of the population hunt.

The entire country sits on bedrock and, half the year, permafrost. The nature and climate are disasters on a daily basis but that we cope with . The upside is that no surprise natural disaster can occur.

 

[Jay Kominek]

I live within one gas tank's drive of Denver. So I'm concerned about the sorts of things that could cause Denver to empty out in a hurry. Not because any of them would be likely to affect me, but rather because there'd be a wave of people who are all less than picky about where their next meal might be coming from.
Rocky Flats isn't a big concern any more, and Colorado Springs is far enough away that I just need to make sure I'm not looking in that direction when anything goes off.
I'm sort of near a flood plain, but enough close enough I'd be too worried. Worst case there I'd drive up to some neighbors who are on even higher ground.

 

[Brian Williams]

My biggest problem would be if the Amish kids could not get any likker for their Hoedowns. Nothin's worse than a 18 YO basket head driving a buggy down the street, pissed cause he didn't git some likker for the hoedown, so it ended up he couldn't get Rachel out behind the corncrib.

Downtown Lancaster PA,
1 Puerto Rican parade might be canceled due to rival racers messin up one anothers 4 wheeled lowered rice burners.
2 Amish horse and buggy got loose in Intercourse, Pa and made it to downtown Lancaster, about 10 miles.
3 TMI all over again

 

[Joe Demko]

Those Amish can be dangerous.

 

[Ktulu]

If Kerry gets elected, the S might H the F.

I don't know what SHTF scenario might play out. The blackout last summer really opened my eyes. I had no water, no generator, and a refer full of food. We now have a plan in place to slowly acquire the things we think we might need in any circumstance. That's all anyone can do.

 

[Dr.Rob]

Rocky Flats, Rocky Mountain Arsenal, Poisoned Groundwater from 200 years of mining, not to mention the legions of tree hugging frisbee throwing satchel bearing Birkenstocked followers of Phish trying to get me to butt out. Hey kettle, this is pot!

From my cold dead hands you !

Sometimes being an addict sucks, but it sure does make you an activist in a hurry. (fires up a Pall Mall, ends rant)

 

[CZ52GUY]

Large scale:
- Nuclear Reactor within 60 minutes drive...accident whether negligent or intentional wouldn't be pretty
- 9/11 type incident originating from my home airport could create flurry of activity to include the dreaded "breakdown of social order"

Smaller scale:
- Escaped convicts OR at large "who allegedly types"...recently had a couple of these rocket scientists rape a woman at knife point, park her stolen car DOWN THE STREET FROM ME, and run into the woods...I carried for the first time for taking the dog out...locked the door behind me everytime fido did her business...it was never like this around here when I was a kid...speaking of which...
- "Troubled youths"...roving gangs in my area doing home invasions over the past several months

CZ52'

 

[stv]

For me, it's either earthquakes, terrorist attacks, or riots, in that order.

 

[Brat7748]

Current US National debt is over $7.1 TRILLION and increasing at almost $2 BILLION a day (note a Billion is 1,000 Million, a Trillion is 1,000 Billion). In 2013 the Social security trust fund will contain $3 TRILLION in I.O.U.’s from the US treasury and $0 cash. No later than 2014 the Medicare Trust fund will also become insolvent. God knows how big the total US national Debt will be by then, considering the rate we are currently adding to it could be $14 Trillion not counting social security. This is only Federal debt. We are a very wealth country, but there are limits to how much debt even the US can carry on its books. Do you really think any politician will have a solution to this magnitude of debt problem between now and then? The US and world economy will tank so bad it will make the 1930’s depression look like a picnic. Civil “unrest†and who know what else to follow. Pictures of Germany after WW1 come to mind. A SHTF possibility nation wide, indeed world wide of a different and more troubling sort.

 

[sturmruger]

I have always worried about people in the metro areas running out of food. Sooner or later they are going to start coming out into the country looking for something to eat!! In a SHTF scenario I would worry the most about people thinking they could come out into the country to rob people.

 

[Tom Bri]

Thanks everyone. This has generated more comment than I expected. One thing that makes me happy, I grew up in the 60s-70s, and we all pretty much believed the Russkis would nuke us some time or another, but no one here has mentioned this dismal possibility. It could still happen, but it seems some of our problems at least are getting smaller.

I live in the land of natural disaster, typhoons, earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis. Lots of people keep food and water stockpiled. After the big earthquake in Kyoto a few years ago there was a boom of home reenforcment and survival prep. I went through the burned out areas a few weeks after, it was beyond words. Riding the train through I felt like a tourist of death and disaster.

I have traveled quite a bit around the world, went to Yugoslavia before the war. Lots of the historic places I have pictures of are now gone. Strange things can happen anywhere, anytime. I wouldn't be surprised if North Korea nuked Tokyo one of these days.

 

[12-34hom]

shtf

1. Lions, tigers, and bears -- Oh My....

2. Tornadoes.

3. nuclear reactor about 70 miles south of my location.

12-34hom.

 

[Mannlicher]

Living in Miami, the two things I see are another Catagory 5 hurricane, or a problem with the Turkey Point nuke plant. Either would be b----a-----d

 

[roo_ster]

I live right north of Big D.

1. Tornado
...that manages to miss Ft Worth. I love Ft Worth, 'cause it usually takes it in the face, sparing us to the east.

2. Terrorist Strike
Lotsa fat targets in DFW

3. Other natural disatser
Snow/ice will shut down DFW

To my knowledge, Big D has never had a race riot.

 

[one45auto]

Where I live in Maryland, the only threats I foresee as being even remotely possible are:


1) A severe terrorist attack (Since Washington, D.C. is only 18 miles distant.) Not much I can do about that, so I don't waste my time worrying.


2) Civil unrest. (Which would most likely occur only in the aftermath of the aforementioned attack.) This would boil down to hunkering down while the panicked and rioting masses exhausted/turned upon themselves. Matters would eventually sort themselves out and in the meantime it goes without saying that any looters or opportunistic sadists who attempted to force their way into my house would receive a less than warm welcome.


Tornadoes, although they have struck portions of the state, are extremely rare. Flooding is basically a non-issue since there are no rivers or large streams of any consequence. Hurricanes rarely make it up the Chesapeake Bay, and if they do they're usually weakened severely. As for other windstorms, the last serious Nor'easter to strike this state occurred in 1965. Earthquakes can happen, but the last was in 1989 and was so minor on the Richter scale that I'd rank that risk as extremely low. Snowstorms might shut the city down for a day or possibly two, but essentially they're relatively harmless unless you're out trying to drive in them.

Basically when it comes to natural disasters I think I'm relatively safe here. Just the same I keep some emergency supplies on hand 24/7/365. After all, I never have been one to take chances.

 

[Evil_Ed]

I live on the east coast of florida, the most likely SHTF will be a major hurrican or tornado taking out power/water. I lived through 2 weeks without power in the seventies with my parents when Hurricane David came through and wrecked our local junction box and many of the poles between the street and our house (end of a private road).
My suggestions for surviving the above?

Gas stove for cooking even without power.
Store a weeks worth of dry and canned goods.
Periodically swap out a stock of 6 - 10 gallons of bottled water (it will get stale after a while).
Obviously always have a 100 or more rounds of ammo for each gun on hand (preferably a 1000 +) in cas of looters and/or the need to hunt for extra food.

 

[erikm]

In my case, the most likely SHTF events are manmade.

1: Messy/explosive train wreck. I live about 200 meters from a fairly big rail junction and see cargo trains passing through regularly. Some of those have been known to transport industrial quantities of chlorine and similar nasties. To make things more interesting, the train's right of way (including the station) is elevated about 4 meters above the ground and the freight trains use the outside tracks. My options: sit and watch (I live 3 floors up in an apartment building) or run like hell.

2: Explosive truck wreck. My workplace is less than 100 meters from a busy highway. This particularly stretch of highway (around my hometown) is a major hub for highways going to, from or through my part of the country and connects the Rotterdam area to (among other places) Frankfurt, Cologne and Dusseldorf as well as Antwerp to the Ruhr. Last year a tanker semi filled with LNG didn't quite manage to explode after jack-knifing and catching fire. Had it done so my workplace would probably have needed new windows. As an aside, an idiot wanting to cause longterm disruption to traffic round here would only have to drop one of four overpasses and at least one of these is deserted at night. My options if caught at work: evacuate and walk home.

3: Storms. Can happen to anyone. 'nuff said.

4: Soccer fans rioting. There is a soccer stadium within a click of my home. While it has it's own train platform (with high fencing, holding pens for hooligans and a covered walkway into the stadium) not all visiting supporters use the package deal (train and stadium tickets) arrangements. Fortunately, the city's main police station is right across the street from the stadium. At risky fixtures the police turns out in force, with mobile units (riot squads) prominently deployed.

5: Longterm power, water or gas outage. Working on these. Gas and power outages will require planning. Keeping a genset, a large propane bottle or a cubic meter of water in my apartment isn't really an option.

Cheers,
ErikM

 

[Dr.Rob]

Soccer fans.. yikes

Didn't you also have some trouble with biker gangs armed with Rocket Launchers?

(Seem to recall that in the news)

Funny thing my first trip to the Netherlands I ended up having a "you crazy violent Americans" conversation with some locals over dinner on a boat.

Add to SHTF in Denver, CO:

Ramapaging hoards of scooter trash hooligans or "what caliber to discreetly disable a vespa at 30 paces?"

Stray blizzards. You know it can snow anytime here, but the snow doesn't tend to stick around very long. I often wonder how Coloradoans would deal with North Dakota style winters.

Actaul SHTF scenarios: Parades, marches, protests. Between covering the Columbus day parade and anti-clan rallies I've been tear gassed twice, a good friend of mine was nearly stomped to death outside a 7-11 in broad daylight when some disgruntled youths decided to take out misplaced racial hatred on the first people they saw after a rally.

FYI unless you are the press, or the police.. it's best to stay away from potentially violent protests.

 

[Jay Kominek]

I often wonder how Coloradoans would deal with North Dakota style winters.

They probably wouldn't do anything different. They'd just get in more accidents.