We produce roughly 1/2 billion loaded rounds per month in the USA, maybe more. Worldwide production is 1 billion loaded rounds per month. I think about half goes to the USA.
Since normal suppliers are unable to keep it on the shelf, that means it is all going straight to homes. This has been going on for 12 months now, at least. And there isn't that much shooting going on at the ranges I'm going to -- down significantly.
So I'm estimating 4-6 BILLION rounds of ammo are stockpiled in private homes, just since the last election.
The same thing is probably happening with powder. Heck, I've taught a DOZEN people how to reload, and of course every one of them wants a pound or two of powder AT LEAST once they learn how to do this, and a thou or two of primers.
I supply them with maybe 1/2-1 lb of powder and a few hundred primers (often free) just to get them into reloading -- but I make darn sure that they recognize how incredibly hard it is to find product right now.....
You could say that I am CAUSING a panic. I think of it differently: I am EDUCATING people who are of a certain mindset, to see reality, and to prepare much better for it, the next time they have opportunity. I think of one fellow who learned how to reload for an antique russian rifle, whose ten year old kid was really enjoying the process with his dad -- and his neighbor, a policeman, asked for help getting his old press (unused for decades) going again. We found him some 748 at a local pawn shop and some primers. That's two right there. There's a gal at work that did the NFA paperwork to get a SBR -- and bought presses to match. A fella with a 9mm who got a Lee classic whack-a-mole kit. And on and on and on. I taught one guy and he filled a storage shed with components!!
I know this is painful, but I think it is a process that is helpful for our nation. Surely the powers that be are recognizing what is happening in their populace.
No man ever armed a nation, in all the history of the world, like this before.