Powder manufacturers and shortages

[16in50calNavalRifle]

Just for a change of pace, a navel-gazing question for the forum regarding powder manufacturers, their production practices, and the ongoing shortage in smokeless powders.

I am thankfully well set for my limited powder needs, for now. But I do expect to start loading 30-06 for the Garand next year (after I've used up my HXP). So I've been watching as IMR4895 disappeared completely during the panic, only to pop up once or twice (most recently this week) at major online sources and very quickly be gobbled up.

I notice that quite a few of the other powders made by major manufacturers have been available much more frequently since the panic. Nothing like before, but not rarely-sighted and prized birds like 4895 that are sold out within hours of being in stock.

I'm wondering whether powder makers are locked into a fairly rigid program of which powders they will produce, and cannot "surge" to meet demand for particular items. Some bullet and ammo manufacturers have altered production routines - expanding production of some items, suspending that of others - in response to the revealed demand patterns of the panic. And I realize that powder manufacturing is sourced globally, many of our favorite powders are produced overseas.

Does anyone here know if the powder guys are even able to respond that way, so that the most highly sought-after powders (just a few examples: 4895, Unique, HP38) would see larger production runs while the slow-movers might be set aside until things return to normal (assuming they will)?

 

[KingMedicine]

I also reload for the garand, but you can use variety and 4064. Lucky for most rounds there are a few powders that can do the same job...

 

[ReloaderFred]

They only have so much production capacity and they try to predict consumption several years in advance. They can only make a couple of powders at a time, so they make what they estimate they'll sell, and then clean the production equipment and make the next powder, etc.

To increase production would cost a lot of money, and after the panic is over, they would have to be able to use that equipment regularly to recover the costs of installing it, hiring and training the personnel to run it, etc. Most companies have been in the business long enough to know what their long term production needs are, and they can't afford to gear up for the occasional short term panic.

When they produce a popular powder and release it to the distributors, it gets snatched up by those who have run out of that particular powder, plus those who have never had a need for it in the past, but are in panic buying mode. It's a vicious circle, indeed.

I look for it to continue somewhat into the near future. At the SHOT Show in January, the savvy distributors were predicting a two year drought at the minimum. We've gone through one year, so that leaves a second year where the supplies will show up a little better, but will still be in relatively short supply. In January, some ammunition companies were taking orders for 2014, having already sold their entire predicted production for 2013 before the year had even started. That was a pretty good indicator of what was happening and what was going to happen, and so far, it's proven true.

Hope this helps.

Fred

 

[Jesse Heywood]

While we are seeing some replacement stock on dealer's shelves, the prices are still high. This means we are still in a shortage. If you see a powder you will need in the near future, I recommend buying what you will need for the next year or so. It's not a time to stock up, as the prices should drop after things catch up. Buying too much now will mean the next guy gets shorted.

 

[GT1]

Many powders have freed up considerably. But 4895, Varget, and H335 are still tight.

Someone checking the right places every day or two can load up on a large jug of Unique, HP 38 and BE all they want as long as they are persistent for a couple three weeks.

Popular rifle powders as mentioned up there^, not so much. I saw PV post to their facebook page a couple days back, Varget was in, it was gone in a handful of minutes.


(Omphaloskepsis is contemplation of one's navel as an aid to meditation.)

 

[cfullgraf]

To add to what ReloaderFred said...

Many powders we consider as domestic are produced over seas or in Canada. They are sent to the U.S. in large batches where they are packaged. So, in normal sales volume times, there is probably a significant time between production runs. When a panic consumes the available inventory, shelves could remain empty for a long time.

These powder manufacturers have other customers worldwide than just the U.S. reloading market so we, U.S. reloading market, must wait our turn.

I doubt that the powder manufacturers had much excess production capacity before the panic set in. I am sure they have ramped up production but even just adding some extra people would take time to train them and adding equipment capacity is expensive and can have significant lead times. We are not talking sweeping floors or digging ditches here and you cannot run down to Wally-World and buy a powder plant.

Then, as ReloaderFred said, when the panic is over, what do the do with the excess production capacity. Idle capacity that has not been paid for is frowned upon by investors.

 

[Shagg]

I heard that there have been two powder manufacturers that are not in production now, one being destroyed by fire and the other by flooding. Anyone know if this is true or not?

 

[steve4102]

As posted above, Powder distributors like Hodgdon and Western have to set up their schedules and requests for product well in advance. They are but a small part of the Global Powder Market. When their scheduled supply of product is depleted by rapid demand, they must wait there turn for their next scheduled request for product. No cutzies .

 

[ArchAngelCD]

Since you original question has been answered I'll address you M1 Garand powder needs. Yes, IMR4895 is the classic M1 powder but there are several powders which are EXTREMELY close. H4895 is almost exactly the same but of course the charge weights are slightly different since they are not the same exact powders. Accurate has 2 powders that are also perfect for the M1, AA2495 which should have been named AA4895 is so close and their Ball Powder equivalent, AA5220.

That is a small range of powder that you can use for the M1 and I didn't mention them all, I'm only telling you the results you see from those 4 powders will be almost identical so if when you start loading for the M1 you have more choices.

 

[mtrmn]

8 lbs IMR 4064

http://store.thirdgenerationshootingsupply.com/browse.cfm/4,3041.html

Anything less than 8 lb is not worth the added shipping and Hazmat IMO
Also, Acc 2495 is ALLEGEDLY their answer to 4895, although I've seen another Accurate powder promoted in forums as the basic equivalent to 4895, but I don't recall what it was and the source may be less than reliable.
I personally use IMR4350 for 30-06, but I don't have a Garand.......

 

[ArchAngelCD]

8 lbs IMR 4064

http://store.thirdgenerationshootingsupply.com/browse.cfm/4,3041.html

Anything less than 8 lb is not worth the added shipping and Hazmat IMO
Also, Acc 2495 is ALLEGEDLY their answer to 4895, although I've seen another Accurate powder promoted in forums as the basic equivalent to 4895, but I don't recall what it was and the source may be less than reliable.
I personally use IMR4350 for 30-06, but I don't have a Garand.......

AA2495 is an almost direct substitute for IMR4895. It's all over the CMP forum and it was wrong those guys would know. (I use H4895)

As for using IMR4350 for M1 ammo, that's a big no-no unless you fit your M1 with an adjustable pressure regulator. You will bend the Op-Rod with a powder that slow and they are not cheap to replace like years ago.

I also use 4350 for all my 30-06 ammo other than M1 ammo.

 

[Potatohead]

There's a powder shortage?

 

[mtrmn]

AA2495 is an almost direct substitute for IMR4895. It's all over the CMP forum and it was wrong those guys would know. (I use H4895)

As for using IMR4350 for M1 ammo, that's a big no-no unless you fit your M1 with an adjustable pressure regulator. You will bend the Op-Rod with a powder that slow and they are not cheap to replace like years ago.

I also use 4350 for all my 30-06 ammo other than M1 ammo.

Thanks for bringing me up to speed on the Accurate powders. I guess I was still hunting and pecking while you were posting....

The only 30-06 I own is my grandfather's model of 1917, still fully military except I removed the rear sight and put an SK scope mount on it. (I can put the sight back anytime, but with my eyesight problems, the scope will most likely stay) It is still capable of sub MOA at 100 with my 4350 loads.

 

[ranger335v]

'Tater: "There's a powder shortage?"

Not really.

We are our own worst enemies; there is a surplus of frantic-panic buyers who will vacuum gun store shelves as soon as a new shipment arrives. Eventually they'll run out of cubby holes to stuff stuff in and it'll dissipate back to normal.

Successful component makers have seen all this hoarding crap before and they know it will end. Businesses don't become successful by being stupid and expanding production, or even hiring a bunch of costly new guys to boast output, just to satisfy the fearful's temporarily madness would be stupid.

 

[USSR]

We are our own worst enemies; there is a surplus of frantic-panic buyers who will vacuum gun store shelves as soon as a new shipment arrives. Eventually they'll run out of cubby holes to stuff stuff in and it'll dissipate back to normal.

Not quite right. As long as there is the fear of government regulation/suppression of ammo and ammo components, guys will find new "cubby holes", and there will always be new guys joining them. Let people know that there is a good chance of food deliveries being cut back at their local supermarket, and watch the shelves be cleaned. Let people know that they may only be able to withdraw a certain amount of money from their bank account in the future, and watch a run on the bank. You cannot change human nature. As soon as the fear is gone (thru the election process), and only then, then things will return to normal.

Don

 

[ReloaderFred]

It wasn't that long ago that someone printed in jest that there was going to be a toilet paper shortage, Don. Remember how long it took for supplies of TP to get back to normal?

With the age of instant communication, we're much more susceptible to rumor mongers, and people who used to shout into the wind and no one heard their inane screaming, now have a gullible audience that is more than willing to believe anything they see on their computer screen. It's a "good news, bad news" age we live in.

I fully agree that a change in government direction will greatly help us, not only in our chosen sport, but in our lives in general. The longer I live, the better I understand why there have been hermits throughout the centuries. If I could find a nice comfortable cave that nobody knew about, I'd probably move in and pull a big pile of brush in front of the entrance and be happy the rest of my days......

Hope this helps.

Fred

 

[USSR]

Fred,

Finding a nice cave with a reloading bench is tough. I've settled on a log cabin.

Don

 

[lauderdale]

Yes. I agree/w/Ranger! Just say'en

 

[thelaststand]

Gunpowder is more difficulty to ramp up production because it requires multiple chemical ingredients. Those ingredients that are being manufactured now won't end up in the gunpowder in your LGS until years down the line. So the ability to boost production does not exist for gunpowder like it does for bullets (projectiles). I suppose primers don't use as much chemical per unit so they could boost production somewhat. Like the panic before this one powder remains the most difficult item to find and has been and will be in short supply for the longest time. That's why I stock 2+ times more powder than I need to load the number of bullets that I have.

Over the last 10 months I've had to purchase bullets several times but I am still using the powder I purchased in 2012.

Here's the formula I use to determine what I am going to purchase when I have money.

X = # of bullets that I have on hand
Y = # of primers that I have
Z = # of rounds worth of powder that I have

If Z < X*2 and powder is available then I purchase powder
If Y < X*1.5 and primers are available then I purchase primers
otherwise I purchase bullets.

Then when I accumulate the more money for my reloading budget I go through that formula again and I purchase only powder, or only primers, or only bullets.

I don't wait until I'm low on something before I replace it, I plan ahead and I purchase what I suppose I will use several years from now.

 

[edfardos]

I tried and failed to find h4350 today. My personal favorite for 30.06.

I did recently score some w231\hp38 and h335 recently however. Just keep checking.

Edfardos

 

[Rem700CDLSF3006]

looked for H4350 since feb none

 

[ArchAngelCD]

I tried and failed to find h4350 today. My personal favorite for 30.06.

I did recently score some w231\hp38 and h335 recently however. Just keep checking.

Edfardos

looked for H4350 since feb none

I had a few pounds of H4350 just before the shortage hit and when things started to look like it might happen again I picked up and 8lb jug so I'm still OK with H4350.

About 2007 there was a store selling out and he had 3X 4lb jugs of W231. He made me a killer deal if I bought all 3 so I did. Along with the 2 pounds I already had I think that's a lifetime of W231 for me.

I had only 1 lb of H335 when the shortage hit but I was also not loading for an AR-15, only a bolt action .223 rifle. Well then I finished the build on the AR and had hardly any H335. Again I got lucky a few months back and an old-timer was selling off his .223 stuff. I got 6 lbs of H335 and 1000 pieces of LC brass, again for a very good price.

I have been very lucky during this shortage thank goodness so I can't complain at all...

 

[Jcinnb]

I was randomly going through my powder check progression several weeks ago. All the " good" Hodgden powders were in ample supply. I got 10 lbs, it was a blast. Next time I checked everything was gone. After almost a year, I finally got it rig hype!

 

[16in50calNavalRifle]

thelaststand - interesting, I have recently taken to doing a similar exercise - matching up components to see how many "rounds' worth" I have for given loads in my (still evolving) line-up. And I'll be topping up on bullet supply (pretty easy these days) to get it all in alignment.


Archangel, thanks for the Garand tips. Actually I recall one of the seasoned Garand guys on the CMP forum (I think) who after many years had settled on 4064 as his favorite (and I did see the 8# jugs of that online, thanks to the commenter above - in fact I know of another online source that has that at the moment as well .... unless they've sold out). So I will be noting down those alternative powders you mentioned.

Fred & a few others, I realize that production capacity cannot usually be rapidly increased, nor is it typically done in response to divergences from long-term levels of demand. I was more curious about any particular elements to the powder process that might affect a return to more available supplies - thelaststand's comment about the precursor chemicals for powder production having their own timelines suggests that powder supplies indeed may have bigger lags than other components.

Which sort of confirms my instinct - which I over-ruled last week when IMR4895 appeared - to buy a base stock the next time I see it. My volume of shooting all my calibers is tragically low at the moment - certainly compared to many guys here - but I won't hesitate from now on to buy a "scarce" component when it briefly appears.

And just a tiny bit on the various comments regarding political factors. Spent most of my life as (comparatively) an "insider" when it comes to public policy, it was my line of work.
Witnessed swings of the pendulum, the tide coming and going on many things - and was rarely shocked by developments, even if they were lamentable. But it's been several years since I could - literally - believe what I have been seeing. It's across the board, it's not limited to the federal level, it goes in many cases to the very character and mindset of the electorate and not passing political currents. I am now a stranger in my own country in many real ways, with no ability to confidently set lower bounds on worst-case scenarios, and thus I will have to prudently assume the worst on all questions.

 

[USSR]

I am now a stranger in my own country in many real ways, with no ability to confidently set lower bounds on worst-case scenarios, and thus I will have to prudently assume the worst on all questions.

Well said, 16in50calNavalRifle, well said.

Don