President Bush may still betray us on the AWB...

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Republicans Head to Convention Divided on Gun Ban
By Robert B. Bluey
CNSNews.com Staff Writer
August 19, 2004

(CNSNews.com) - If there's one issue on which Republicans usually agree, it's their strong defense of the Second Amendment. But less than two weeks before the GOP convention, moderates and conservatives find themselves at odds over the soon-to-expire semi-automatic gun ban.

In a clash with pro-gun Republicans, President Bush has publicly supported the ban on so-called "assault weapons" dating back to his 2000 presidential campaign. Although he hasn't actively pushed for an extension of the 1994 law, his spokesmen consistently reaffirm his support for it.

The law would sunset Sept. 13 without action from Congress. Republican leaders in the House of Representatives have refused to bring up the matter for debate, and with only four working days left before it expires, even the law's supporters acknowledge it is doomed.

At the same time, however, a band of moderate Republicans have stood in stark opposition to their more conservative colleagues in House leadership posts. They believe enough Republicans would join with Democrats to send a bill to the president's desk.

The Republican-controlled Senate has already voted 52-47 to extend the ban, thanks in part to 10 Republicans who broke ranks. Because the March 2 vote came in the form of an amendment to another bill, the legislation was later voted down in an effort to defeat the measure.

Differences of opinion among Republicans existed in 1994 at the time Congress approved the ban. As a result of that vote, former President Bill Clinton estimated it cost 20 Democrats their jobs, giving Republicans control of Congress.

Political observers disagree whether the stakes are as high today, but both gun-control advocates and Second Amendment supporters suggested Bush ought to tread carefully.

"President Bush has made some key mistakes, such as saying he would sign an extension of the gun ban," said Erich Pratt, spokesman for Gun Owners of America, which has voiced some of the most stringent criticism of Bush as a result of his support for the ban.

By essentially staking out the same stance as his Democrat challenger, Sen. John Kerry, Bush has hurt his reputation with gun owners, Pratt said.

"The president has almost shot himself in the foot in that he has taken away one of the huge magnets that pulled Democratic voters over to his side of the fence," Pratt told CNSNews.com.

Gun-control groups like Americans for Gun Safety have made much of Bush's support for extending the ban. One of its advisers, Matt Bennett, said there's little difference between Bush and Kerry as a result.

"On the major issues of the day, Kerry and Bush are virtually identical in at least what they say about the gun issue," Bennett told CNSNews.com. "Bush has said he supports extending the assault weapons ban, he said he supports closing the gun-show loophole, he said he supports cracking down on gun crime. These are the things Kerry talks about when it comes to guns."

That's what Pratt said worries him, especially if voters buy into that argument. It's not as much of a concern for the National Rifle Association, which downplayed the gun ban's impact on the presidential race.

"We actually don't think it will play a big role in the election because we're cautiously optimistic that it will sunset on Sept. 13," said Kelly Hobbs, the NRA's spokeswoman.

But those on the other side of the gun debate see things differently. The Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, a leading advocate of renewing the ban, has predicted a backlash against Bush should he not actively campaign for an extension before Sept. 13.

"If it is allowed to expire, it will be President Bush's fault, and we'll let people know that," said Chad Ramsey, a regional director for the Brady Campaign. "He is responsible. It will have expired on his watch. If that's the case, there will be a backlash. People will be angry he let this happen, and people will probably show up at the voting booth with that in mind."

Republicans, meanwhile, aren't saying much. CNSNews.com was unable to reach any of the House moderates who have signed onto legislation to extend the ban. The most outspoken advocate, Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.), recently held a press conference with Jim and Sarah Brady.

Other House Republican who have bucked their party to support the ban include Reps. Doug Bereuter (Neb.), Tom Davis (Va.), Michael Ferguson (N.J.), Nancy Johnson (Conn.), Peter King (N.Y.), Mark S. Kirk (Ill.), Jack Quinn (N.Y.), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (Fla.) and Christopher Shays (Conn.).

The more conservative House leaders, Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) and Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas), have expressed little desire to bring up the matter for a vote.

In the Senate, the Republican defectors include Sens. Lincoln Chafee (R.I.), Susan Collins (Maine), Mike DeWine (Ohio), Peter Fitzgerald (Ill.), Judd Gregg (N.H.), Richard Lugar (Ind.), Gordon Smith (Ore.), Olympia Snowe (Maine), George Voinovich (Ohio) and John Warner (Va.).

"It is a divisive issue within the Republican Party ... between the moderates and conservatives," said Rob Recklaus, spokesman for Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-N.Y.), who has championed the issue. "It has to do a lot with the NRA leadership, which has the ear of the conservative wing of the Republican Party."

On the issue of the gun ban, however, Bush has strayed from his traditional conservative base. In Pratt's view, it would be best if the president kept his stance under wraps.

"I do think Bush is on one side of it and House leaders are on the other, but that being said, I don't really think it's an issue," Pratt said. "I don't think the president has a desire to push it. I don't think this is an important enough issue for the president. What he has said can only hurt him, but certainly, it won't hurt him as bad if he started actively pushing it."

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Source: CNS News
 
"It is a divisive issue within the Republican Party ...

The most outspoken advocate, Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.), recently held a press conference with Jim and Sarah Brady Other House Republican who have bucked their party to support the ban include Reps. Doug Bereuter (Neb.), Tom Davis (Va.), Michael Ferguson (N.J.), Nancy Johnson (Conn.), Peter King (N.Y.), Mark S. Kirk (Ill.), Jack Quinn (N.Y.), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (Fla.) and Christopher Shays (Conn.).
10 out of 435 is decisive?

One more attempt by the anti's to push this through.

If Bush supports this, will it really gain him votes? Will Sarah Brady suddenly campaign for W?

Bush said he'll sign it because he doesn't want this as an issue. If he really wanted a renewal, he'd make sure it got to his desk.

An all you W haters, what will Kerry do with this issue should be become President?
 
10 out of 435 is decisive?
You didn't read close enough. That's the number of Republican turncoats. In other words, 10 out of 229.

How many House Dems do you think will buck their party and agree that the awb should sunset? One, maybe two?
 
There is simply not enough time. The senate only has 1 week in session before the ban sunsets. An emergeny session would have to be called, and they wouldn't be calling it for any other reason. Other than DiFi and her cronies, noone is going to want to associate themselves with calling an emergency session to debate this issue. But let's assume they get a session called, and are able to get the legislation approved in the Senate, then it would have to be approved by the House of Representatives, which they have promised to bury. So let's also assume it somehow gets through the house. It's an election year. Do you REALLY think GWB is going to make the same mistake his father did? Forget for a moment that he said in the past he would sign it. This was just posturing, and he knew it would never see his desk. Do you really think he would sign this legislation so close to the November elections? It would be political suicide.

Considering it would have to clear the Senate AND the House, AND get to the President's desk in 1 weeks time, I don't think President Bush will have even the slightest chance to betray us, as you put it.
 
"If it is allowed to expire, it will be President Bush's fault, and we'll let people know that," said Chad Ramsey, a regional director for the Brady Campaign. "He is responsible. It will have expired on his watch. If that's the case, there will be a backlash. People will be angry he let this happen, and people will probably show up at the voting booth with that in mind."

You can probably count on one hand the number of people who are now Bush supporters who would be so upset by an AWB expiration that they'd go to the polls and vote for Kerry. OTOH, there are probably many tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, who are presently Bush supporters or leaning his way who'd refuse to vote for Bush is he DID sign a renewal/expansion. I am one of them.

Karl, are you listening?
 
An all you W haters, what will Kerry do with this issue should be become President?

Then, all the “pro-gun†Republicans in Congress will really, really know that they can’t send an “assault-weapons†ban to the President’s desk.

~G. Fink
 
10 out of 229.
Right. It's 4% though. I'll take that.

How many House Dems do you think will buck their party and agree that the awb should sunset? One, maybe two?
I think there will be more than that. Colin Peterson (D) from Minnesota won't sign on. In fact, he said Kerry will have a hard time winning his district because he's pro-abortion and anti-gun.
 
OTOH, there are probably many tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, who are presently Bush supporters or leaning his way who'd refuse to vote for Bush is he DID sign a renewal/expansion.
I think you're badly underestimating here - if an AWB gets to Bush's desk and he signs it, I think it will cost the GOP votes numbering in the millions.

Look - there are at least 80 million gun owners in the USA. If 95% don't care about this issue one way or the other, the remaining 5% - totalling four million disenchanted voters - can really, really, hurt the GOP on election day, considering how close the polls are making this race.

And - I'd expect it wouldn't just be GWB hurt, they'd be a nasty surprise for other Republicans when they tallied up losses in the House and Senate as well, since with the GOP controlling both houses of congress plus the White House, an AWB renewal would be a GOP gun ban.

And in those circumstances, I'll hold the PARTY responsible, and not vote for ANY Republican at ANY level of government.
 
Connie Morrella was a Republican Congresscritter representing MC county MD
She campaigned for the MMM
She was the congressional sponsor
She did press ops
She did rallies
She promoted the heck out of the movement

when it came time to reelect her
the MMM supported the democratic challenger
 
Congressworman Connie Morella was representing a mostly Democratic Montgomery County. She was a fiscal conservative but a social "liberal". IIRC, Morella was in Congress for quite a few years.

When it came to gun control, there was little separating Connie and the challenger and winner, Chris Van Hollen.
 
How many House Dems do you think will buck their party and agree that the awb should sunset? One, maybe two?

I can only be responsible for my own. OK has only one Democratic congressman, Brad Carson. And he has said over and over again that he will not support any type of AWB.

You can probably count on one hand the number of people who are now Bush supporters who would be so upset by an AWB expiration that they'd go to the polls and vote for Kerry. OTOH, there are probably many tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, who are presently Bush supporters or leaning his way who'd refuse to vote for Bush is he DID sign a renewal/expansion. I am one of them.

That's exactly right. I've got a running bet with a couple of Democrats on the election. We were each allowed a little "fudging." My condition was all bets are off if Bush signs an AWB renewal. You are right; it wouldn't win him any votes but would cost him a great deal of support from people who are actually going to vote. I wouldn't vote for him if he actually signed it. (I wouldn't vote for Kerry either. Probably the Libertarian.)

In a close race, signing the AWB could VERY well cost Bush the entire election. He's got some smart people on his campaign and they probably know that's true. Even if the media can never get it straight.

Gregg
 
He made his bed...

He better sure hope he doesn't have to lay in it... Bush has so far promised to "extend the current ban" - his words - he didn't promise to sign a new AWB after 9/13... He also opposed verbally any further curbs on gun owners...

That said, 2 items give the Pres very little room to move. 1: Support for existing laws - meaning he won't suppor repealing any laws, and 2: His vowed support for a 'renewal'... IF Congress puts him in the position of signing this renewal, or, a shortly thereafter reenactment, he'll be fired, just like his father was. In this instance, I would vote for someone else, without question, and I would actively campaign against him.

I think the NRA NEEDs to exert pressure on Bush at the convention to let the issue die, let the law expire, and revise the position to supporting "The laws that work" as MD's Ehrlich has done. The supporting all existing gun laws is a loser because it means we can't make any headway against decades of infringement. Otherwise, gun owners just won't see the contrast between the 2 candidates and behold - we'll be stuck with Kerry for 8 years...

Senator Allen stood up, took the heat, and did the right thing after initially supporting reenactment, Bush will need the same thing. He's going to have to show, not promise, show gun owners from casual duck hunters to dedicated class 3 owners that he's got their backs.

If the NRA endorses Bush with this 'support the renewal of the AWB' position, as well as the 'support all existing laws' position, then the NRA endorsement will become even more meaningless, and they'll see a membership hit like never before - especially when the new, soon to be permanent ban is enacted after this one expires. It's only a matter of time until the issue is brought back up, and Bush would do well to remember that gun owners helped unelect his father, helped fire the Democrats from control of BOTH houses of Congress in '94, and we will do it again...

We need to be loud and clear, if support for ANY gun control whatsoever is even hinted to at the convention, then it's zero gun owner support. None. go find another job.

Remember, Clinton was the best thing that ever happened to gun owners -his socialist agenda got the Republican party control of both Houses of Congress, and Kerry could be just as beneficial...
 
I think you're badly underestimating here - if an AWB gets to Bush's desk and he signs it, I think it will cost the GOP votes numbering in the millions.
Not a chance.
The vast majority of people just don't care. Of those that do care, the vast majority are so terrified of the alternative that they will always (no matter what they say about voting their conscience in the peperetual "next race") hold their nose and vote for the slightly less bad choice. If Bush signs it, we'll hear cries from Republicans saying "Well, yeah Bush signed it, but Kerry would have too! And Kerry would have done worse as well!"

And they'd be right, as far as that goes.

Best case for us is a few Reps and maybe a Senator or two would get kicked out for their votes. Whether or not they'd be replaced by folks more friendly to freedom is another matter altogether.
 
Whatever you do, vote for Anyone But Bush. That'll ensure us that we'll get at least four years of John Kerry, some truly gnarsty supreme court appointees, etc.

Why should you vote for Anyone But Bush?

Because he said, knowing that it has all the likelihood of happening as of Hitler having to take ice skating lessons, said he'd sign something IF IT MADE IT TO HIS DESK. Sounds good to the folks who vote according to "safety" and sound bites.

Personally, I'm gonna vote for the person who is the most likely to defeat Kerry...
 
"President Bush has made some key mistakes, such as saying he would sign an extension of the gun ban," said Erich Pratt, spokesman for Gun Owners of America...

Badnarik, the Libertarian candidate, wouldn't even consider signing such an abomination, which is one of the reasons I'll probably vote for him this November.
 
Because he said, knowing that it has all the likelihood of happening as of Hitler having to take ice skating lessons, said he'd sign something IF IT MADE IT TO HIS DESK. Sounds good to the folks who vote according to "safety" and sound bites.

That's true and I don't really have a problem with it. I think it was smart politics. It makes it much harder to attack him on the issue from the left. But it is only "smart politics" if you are dead certain that you won't ever get called on it. That's the job of the House leadership. And those are fellow Republicans.

So he's in a win-win situation right now. The only way it blows up is if the GOP leadership in both chambers and in his office betray us at the last minute. It's all in their hands. But I firmly believe there has to be a stick to go with that carrot. I'll vote just about a straight GOP ticket if they act like my friend. If they act like my enemy, I'm going to leave them right there in the ditch. I would rather have an honest enemy to fight than a dishonest friend who slashes me in the back every time I turn around!

(This shouldn't be an issue at this point. I'm 99% sure nothing is getting out of Congress. But Bush does need to know OUR support depends on HIS support. We can't be taken for granted.)

Gregg
 
I don't put any stupid move past the GOP, but Rove is a savvy guy. Bush has given a LOT to the left in this country -- education reform by Ted Kennedy, prescription drug coverage, for example. What precisely has it bought him? Nothing whatsoever. Bush is Hitler, according to the left, even though he spends far more on domestic programs than that Clinton creature did.

So I don't see Bush signing the AWB. It won't buy him many votes, and will probably lose him more.
 
We can't be taken for granted.
*snort* We can, we have been, we are and we will be.
Who else will we vote for? Democrats? Libertarians? Constitution Party? Greens?

Either it's supporting something worse, or there's no chance of winning or both.

As long as the Republicans stay slightly behind the Democrats in their pushing gun control policies, they'll have your vote locked up tighter than Gore's social security lockbox.
 
Ahem........

Michael Ferguson (N.J.) would buck the Republican party?

WE HAVE NO REPUBLICAN OFFICIALS IN NEW JERSEY!

Only RINO's(Republican In Name Only).

Your choice is Democrat or "Democrat lite" in this state of mine and that is it.

RW3
 
Badnarik, the Libertarian candidate, wouldn't even consider signing such an abomination, which is one of the reasons I'll probably vote for him this November.

Having met Badnarik, I can honestly say I would refuse to vote for him. He is the type of guy that gives Libertarians a bad name.
 
How many House Dems do you think will buck their party and agree that the awb should sunset? One, maybe two


Surely some Southern (D)s wouldn't go for this?

Didn't a couple (D)Senators (Landriex (LA) maybe? and Miller (GA)) vote agin on March 3?
 
Bush won't support AWB

Bush may sign a bill but he will definately won't support it. In actuality, if one does reach his desk, I would predict that he hasn't a snowball's chance to win this race. First, if a bill reaches his desk and he refuses to sign....then the left will be on him like flies.....there will be political fallout in the independant and softy republican demographics. Second, if one reaches his desk and he DOES sign it....then he will lose thousands and thousands of Second Amendment supporter votes. Will they vote for Kerry? NOT A CHANCE.....They will simply stay home! I will be sick if Kerry wins......but if Bush signs such a bill....I will be too sick to vote in November. It is too important of an issue for too many people. Thus, Bush's only chance is that congress does not make him have to decide. Sad but true. The turn coats (republican senators supporting an extension )should realize this! They need to step back and see the forrest!
 
Badnarik, the Libertarian candidate, wouldn't even consider signing such an abomination, which is one of the reasons I'll probably vote for him this November.

Badnarik telling us he wouldn't sign an AWB renewal is like me promising my wife I won't have sex with Jennifer Aniston ... sure I'm telling the truth, but it doesn't matter since I'll never actually have the opportunity :neener:



Honestly most people don't care about the AWB one way or the other. Other then us and a handfull of real rabid antis whether it is renewed or now will probably go unnoticed.


However I do believe that in this tight election Bush knows that supporters of the AWB are not going to vote for him if he renews the AWB but that opponents of the AWB would vote for someone else if he does so he really stands to lose a lot more if he signs it (and the Republicans in the house and senate are in the same boat).
 
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