Primers

[EricBu]

Lol, why would the cost ever come down? Vista is already cutting back primer production, and they control the US primer market, the "other" US primer maker now just reacts, they can't make the market anymore. So Vista can either a) produce and sell primers at a falling price point, making a profit via volume or b) reduce output to meet their internal ammo production demand with a small amount of excess to sell through their various distributors, layoff 2 shifts at 2 plants, let the price remain high and make the exact same amount of profit...but with reduced HR overhead....which path do you think the smart business man takes? Imports could make a huge difference......but our lovely government has created so many hoops and barriers that it takes forever to get a lot through the entire process and onto shelves. I don't expect prices to come down much more than a few percent...heck, if the economy tanks, and we go into a full recession.......Vista will just layoff more people, and slow production even more. I suspect those heady post shortage booms of yesteryear are not likely to be as robust or last as long in the future with one company controlling 90% of domestic production.

 

[EricBu]

I am really getting desperate for small pistol primers.

Target Sports USA has a variety of them for 450.00/5K including shipping and hazmat. Best price going right now.

 

[9mmepiphany]

I am really getting desperate for small pistol primers.

Target Sports USA has a variety of them for 450.00/5K including shipping and hazmat. Best price going right now.

Yup everything seems to be more available...if a bit more expensive; which is close to the new "norm"

There were several places that have primers available in the $85/k range; including Shipping and HazMat...that's how I got my last 10k; and I've seen the price fall to $80/k. They didn't have a limit, except you had to buy in multiples of 5k, and had 100 cases of 5k on hand.

I have a shooting buddy who works at a major retailer tell me that their cost is $64/k for CCI; so if you're waiting for prices to fall to $30/k there's going to be a long wait. I'm figuring anything close to $60/k is now a good price

 

[GeoDudeFlorida]

Target Sports USA has a variety of them for 450.00/5K including shipping and hazmat. Best price going right now.

That’s $90/1000. Not bad considering the times. I didn’t see anything in the large format, as usual, just SP/SR. I guess if all anyone shoots is 9mm/5.56mm - and that does seem to be the push - then $90/1000 is a real bargain.

 

[2ndtimer]

https://southerndefense.com/copy-of-zsr-small-pistol-primers-1000ct/
This looks to be a good deal for SPP, if you want to gamble on Turkish primers.

 

[9mmepiphany]

if you want to gamble on Turkish primers.

I haven't tried the Turkish ones yet, but the SPP from Bosnia are excellent. They've completely replace CCI SPP in my inventory

 

[JEBruns]

Here it is, almost one year later, the 30th (of November 2022) will be one year.

Where do we stand compared-to what we all predicted a year ago?

I'm still not seeing any primers around here in any of my LGSs, Sportsman's Warehouse, Bass Pro or Cabela's or Shooter's Choice.

Primer supply has gotten much better in my area since this time a year ago. Lots of primers at LGS's and Bass Pro these days. Powder choices and supply are up dramatically as well. Prices have not come down though. If Vista is truly already cutting back on primer production, this $90 per K thing might be the new normal, unfortunately. Hopefully time and new competition will eventually force a significant drop in those prices.

 

[Mark_Mark]

I predict that when Black Powder comes back then Primers will follow. Reloaders are the low man on the factory Totem Poll.

Good news! Gaff&Son has BP in stock!! Soon people!!!

 

[EricBu]

That’s $90/1000. Not bad considering the times. I didn’t see anything in the large format, as usual, just SP/SR. I guess if all anyone shoots is 9mm/5.56mm - and that does seem to be the push - then $90/1000 is a real bargain.

They had Federal Large Pistol Match at 485.00 incl shipping/hazmat last month. I stocked up on them at that price. My running average for primers across the board for the past 24 months is now .10 ea. I miss the days of .01 and .02 primers. I've watched my average cost per round (new brass) across the board go from .15 ea to .35 ea. Pretty ridiculous.

 

[CQB45ACP]

They had Federal Large Pistol Match at 485.00 incl shipping/hazmat last month. I stocked up on them at that price. My running average for primers across the board for the past 24 months is now .10 ea. I miss the days of .01 and .02 primers. I've watched my average cost per round (new brass) across the board go from .15 ea to .35 ea. Pretty ridiculous.

Averages are misleading anyway. Did you hear about the guy who drowned in a lake averaging six inches deep?

Let me help you feel better.

My average cost per round is still what it was pre-pandemic 2019 when I first started reloading. So it’s really low UNLESS I consider TCO—presses, dies, scales, multiple powder drops, lots and lots of other equipment I bought at same time I first bought primers, powder, bullets, cases.

IF I had started 20 years ago I could simply amortize the equipment costs and make myself feel better. But for just three years it doesn’t help much. But wait there’s more!

Consider what I call the RCS (real cost of shooting). In the past two years the business hours of my local range just seven miles away (NRA HQ) have become erratic & undependable. So, I’ve moved to the next closest/comparable range which is 25 miles away. Not only is it really far, it’s expensive at $20/hour (or $35/month with one year commitment).

The increased distance is a gift that keeps on giving—nearly four times increase in wear & tear on car, nearly four times the fuel consumption, PLUS at least doubling of fuel cost/gallon.

So my brother, for me, the reason I reload is to shoot and unfortunately shooting just may be as expensive as golf used to be. A few more pennies here and there for primers is just literally pocket change.

 

[Buzznrose]

$89 per 1000 primers sucks, but it's cheaper than buying 1000 rounds of loaded ammo. Of course that only works if you're not paying outrageous prices for the other components.

I think we’re getting close and the price of 9MM ammo will be one of the drivers for primer prices. And lately, I’ve seen 9MM under $300/1000 (includes tax and delivery). SGAmmo had 1000 Magtec 9MM for $259 and free shipping.

1000 primers at $90 + 1000 FMJ bullets at $100 + powder at $15 = $205 pre tax and shipping.

 

[GeoDudeFlorida]

I think we’re getting close and the price of 9MM ammo will be the driver for primer prices. And lately, I’ve seen 9MM under $300/1000 (includes tax and delivery). SGAmmo had 1000 Magtec 9MM for $259 and free shipping.

1000 primers at $90 + 1000 FMJ bullets at $100 + powder at $15 = $205 pre tax and shipping.

Yeah, funny thing about that is, I haven't had good results shooting banger-9mm in my .38Spl revolvers.

 

[EricBu]

Averages are misleading anyway. Did you hear about the guy who drowned in a lake averaging six inches deep?

Let me help you feel better.

My average cost per round is still what it was pre-pandemic 2019 when I first started reloading. So it’s really low UNLESS I consider TCO—presses, dies, scales, multiple powder drops, lots and lots of other equipment I bought at same time I first bought primers, powder, bullets, cases.

IF I had started 20 years ago I could simply amortize the equipment costs and make myself feel better. But for just three years it doesn’t help much. But wait there’s more!

Consider what I call the RCS (real cost of shooting). In the past two years the business hours of my local range just seven miles away (NRA HQ) have become erratic & undependable. So, I’ve moved to the next closest/comparable range which is 25 miles away. Not only is it really far, it’s expensive at $20/hour (or $35/month with one year commitment).

The increased distance is a gift that keeps on giving—nearly four times increase in wear & tear on car, nearly four times the fuel consumption, PLUS at least doubling of fuel cost/gallon.

So my brother, for me, the reason I reload is to shoot and unfortunately shooting just may be as expensive as golf used to be. A few more pennies here and there for primers is just literally pocket change.

More than one entertainer has drowned in less than an inch of vomit.

Meh, my average encompasses somewhere in the neighborhood of 250K rounds over a dozen calibers over the last 2 years or so. Since I'm constantly buying bulk bullets, new brass, powder, and primers....I can trend it very accurately per caliber and overall. Bulk bullet and brass prices perfectly mirror lead and copper spot prices by the way. Primers might, but there is so much market pad built into them from the ongoing market shortages that you can't track it by things like the cost of raw materials...bit more disconnected than bullets and brass which are directly impacted. At this point, bullets and brass have moved from a market conditions based pricing, to a materials and resource cost based pricing. Primers and powder are still being driven by market conditions (powder might have an argument, as there is still something of a nitrocellulose shortage globally). The barriers to entry in those markets means that competition won't be along any time soon to drive prices down. Primers have the added problem of being domestically controlled by (arguably) a monopoly.

My TCO is spread across a rolling 5 years, with a defined lifecycle, replacement costs, updates, etc. My "RCS" is now a tax event as well, lol.

 

[GeoDudeFlorida]

More than one entertainer has drowned in less than an inch of vomit.

Meh, my average encompasses somewhere in the neighborhood of 250K rounds over a dozen calibers over the last 2 years or so. Since I'm constantly buying bulk bullets, new brass, powder, and primers....I can trend it very accurately per caliber and overall. Bulk bullet and brass prices perfectly mirror lead and copper spot prices by the way. Primers might, but there is so much market pad built into them from the ongoing market shortages that you can't track it by things like the cost of raw materials...bit more disconnected than bullets and brass which are directly impacted. At this point, bullets and brass have moved from a market conditions based pricing, to a materials and resource cost based pricing. Primers and powder are still being driven by market conditions (powder might have an argument, as there is still something of a nitrocellulose shortage globally). The barriers to entry in those markets means that competition won't be along any time soon to drive prices down. Primers have the added problem of being domestically controlled by (arguably) a monopoly.

My TCO is spread across a rolling 5 years, with a defined lifecycle, replacement costs, updates, etc. My "RCS" is now a tax event as well, lol.

Two things to consider as well: primers and powder are both still predominantly labor-intensive and labor-dependent processes. Primer manufacture in particular relies very heavily on the skills of a select labor force. Skilled labor is expensive and difficult to replace. The more complex the task, the more difficult it is to lower labor costs and the more risk involved in the labor, the more expensive it is to replace each skilled laborer. It's "nice" for home hobbyists making a 100+ year-old formula of primer for home-use to think they can do what the primer mixers at Vista do - but it's not very realistic.

 

[EricBu]

Two things to consider as well: primers and powder are both still predominantly labor-intensive and labor-dependent processes. Primer manufacture in particular relies very heavily on the skills of a select labor force. Skilled labor is expensive and difficult to replace. The more complex the task, the more difficult it is to lower labor costs and the more risk involved in the labor, the more expensive it is to replace each skilled laborer. It's "nice" for home hobbyists making a 100+ year-old formula of primer for home-use to think they can do what the primer mixers at Vista do - but it's not very realistic.

Absolutely, I think in our industry, primer and powder are the least automated segments. ESPECIALLY those located in former eastern block countries where labor is much much cheaper than automation still -- and where the majority of imports into the US come from. Vista has already proven they give zero ****s about their trained labor, and regularly lay off and rehire to match market conditions. Which is one reason I don't think costs of primers will come down more than a small percentage any time soon...Vista will happily lay off it's work force, scale back production, and keep the price high...because they can, and making the same profit with less HR overhead is the holy grail of modern american business. CEO and the Board gonna CEO and Board....it's what they do. In other industries, competition would keep that in check...doesn't work in the domestic primer market at least for now.

 

[CQB45ACP]

More than one entertainer has drowned in less than an inch of vomit.

Meh, my average encompasses somewhere in the neighborhood of 250K rounds over a dozen calibers over the last 2 years or so. Since I'm constantly buying bulk bullets, new brass, powder, and primers....I can trend it very accurately per caliber and overall. Bulk bullet and brass prices perfectly mirror lead and copper spot prices by the way. Primers might, but there is so much market pad built into them from the ongoing market shortages that you can't track it by things like the cost of raw materials...bit more disconnected than bullets and brass which are directly impacted. At this point, bullets and brass have moved from a market conditions based pricing, to a materials and resource cost based pricing. Primers and powder are still being driven by market conditions (powder might have an argument, as there is still something of a nitrocellulose shortage globally). The barriers to entry in those markets means that competition won't be along any time soon to drive prices down. Primers have the added problem of being domestically controlled by (arguably) a monopoly.

My TCO is spread across a rolling 5 years, with a defined lifecycle, replacement costs, updates, etc. My "RCS" is now a tax event as well, lol.

Have you SHOT that many rounds? Neither my wallet nor hands could afford that regardless of monetary cost.

Just yesterday I was scouting some Confederate earthworks & drove by a golf course I had never even seen before. Very few were playing despite reasonable weather (about 60) and I thought about playing again. Parking lot was full of Mercs, Bimmers, Land Rovers, etc .

But I have long since given my clubs and bag and stuff to my son and I thought of the cart rental fees, greens fees, and cursing uptake so I decided to keep loading & shooting.

 

[CQB45ACP]

Absolutely, I think in our industry, primer and powder are the least automated segments. ESPECIALLY those located in former eastern block countries where labor is much much cheaper than automation still -- and where the majority of imports into the US come from. Vista has already proven they give zero ***** about their trained labor, and regularly lay off and rehire to match market conditions. Which is one reason I don't think costs of primers will come down more than a small percentage any time soon...Vista will happily lay off it's work force, scale back production, and keep the price high...because they can, and making the same profit with less HR overhead is the holy grail of modern american business. CEO and the Board gonna CEO and Board....it's what they do. In other industries, competition would keep that in check...doesn't work in the domestic primer market at least for now.

I just think that’s too cynical a view.

 

[GeoDudeFlorida]

I just think that’s too cynical a view.

No, it's fairly realistic. Vista's bread-and-butter is military and police contracts; retail sales is a hill they climb to support their business model and keep the contracting agents happy. Vista can use the general public as a supplemental revenue source for their over-contract production and make a little good PR with the contracting agents by saying they're. "all about the American Sportsman," when they're really all about the government contracts.

Maybe that's also a "cynical" point of view but it's where the evidence leads: Vista prioritized Federal LEO and military contracts over civilian sales and has been selling contract overruns to the public at inflated prices. There's no question there.

When I worked in aerospace we saw that routinely with military contract agents. They wanted to see our civilian contracts nearly match our milspec contracts. Congress gets testy about the "Military-Industrial Complex" - which Congress funds - forming some kind of symbiotic relationships. It makes some Congress-critters think there's such things as military-industrial cabals and black-bag experimental weapons research operations.

There are both of course but, who are they to assume anything?

 

[EricBu]

Have you SHOT that many rounds? Neither my wallet nor hands could afford that regardless of monetary cost.

Just yesterday I was scouting some Confederate earthworks & drove by a golf course I had never even seen before. Very few were playing despite reasonable weather (about 60) and I thought about playing again. Parking lot was full of Mercs, Bimmers, Land Rovers, etc .

But I have long since given my clubs and bag and stuff to my son and I thought of the cart rental fees, greens fees, and cursing uptake so I decided to keep loading & shooting.

I cannot speak to whether or not every round I've produced has actually been fired. Much of it goes out the door in airtight containers with dessicant;-)

 

[GeoDudeFlorida]

I predict that when Black Powder comes back then Primers will follow. Reloaders are the low man on the factory Totem Poll.

Good news! Gaff&Son has BP in stock!! Soon people!!!

Didn't you also predict four NEW US-based primer factories would be shipping pallets to retailers by this time last year?

 

[EricBu]

I just think that’s too cynical a view.

I am a cynical person by nature...at 54, nothing in the world has demonstrated to me that I should be otherwise. And several decades in the military, corp world, contractor world, and small business world has only reinforced it. A business entity is not a social empowerment construct, no matter what AOC or that ilk would have you believe. It has to make money, or it ceases to exist. Vista is a publicly traded company (actually 2 now), and is also beholden to it's shareholders. They have an obligation to maximize their profit for their shareholders...many of whom have no idea what a primer is, or what it's used for. They will leverage ever single angle they have to maximize profit and minimize expense. This is the way it is. It is no different than the frog and scorpion fable. While they try and present a friendly outdoor sportsman consumer drive......they will sting you. It's their nature, and one can't help their nature.

 

[Mark_Mark]

Didn't you also predict four NEW US-based primer factories would be shipping pallets to retailers by this time last year?

I’m about a year off… but a new factory in Arkansas is being built RIGHT NOW! huge major league factory

 

[GeoDudeFlorida]

I’m about a year off… but a new factory in Arkansas is being built RIGHT NOW! huge major league factory

Yeah, well, actually you're three years and three factories off but, hey! what's a few missed guesses among compadres!?
Keep up the optimism, my friend. As the cloud of mortality closes finally around your senses, and the "light switch" goes out for the last time, that sense of optimism may be the only anchor you have to the temporal world.

 

[GeoDudeFlorida]

I am a cynical person by nature...at 54, nothing in the world has demonstrated to me that I should be otherwise. And several decades in the military, corp world, contractor world, and small business world has only reinforced it. A business entity is not a social empowerment construct, no matter what AOC or that ilk would have you believe. It has to make money, or it ceases to exist. Vista is a publicly traded company (actually 2 now), and is also beholden to it's shareholders. They have an obligation to maximize their profit for their shareholders...many of whom have no idea what a primer is, or what it's used for. They will leverage ever single angle they have to maximize profit and minimize expense. This is the way it is. It is no different than the frog and scorpion fable. While they try and present a friendly outdoor sportsman consumer drive......they will sting you. It's their nature, and one can't help their nature.

"Cynicism" is the inability to willingly suspend disbelief.

 

[Mark_Mark]

Yeah, well, actually you're three years and three factories off but, hey! what's a few missed guesses among compadres!?
Keep up the optimism, my friend. As the cloud of mortality closes finally around your senses, and the "light switch" goes out for the last time, that sense of optimism may be the only anchor you have to the temporal world.

you are good with words!!!!