Results in key House races: Reuters poll

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Desertdog

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If this poll is anywhere near true, you better forget your third party candidate and vote for one or the other major parties. If you don't want a Democrat led House, vote Republican. If you would prefer a Democrat House, vote Democrat. A third party vote could swing it either way.

Results in key House races: Reuters poll
http://today.reuters.com/news/artic...62_RTRUKOC_0_US-POLL-HOUSE.xml&src=rss&rpc=22



By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats lead Republicans in 11 of 15 crucial races in the November 7 election to decide which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives.

President George W. Bush's Republicans now hold a 15-seat advantage over Democrats. The polls of at least 500 likely voters in each district have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Here is a summary of the results in each race polled:

ARIZONA 8 - Democratic former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords holds a 45-37 percent lead over Republican anti-immigration activist Randy Graf, who won a heated September 12 primary over a more moderate candidate backed by the national party.

COLORADO 7 - In this swing suburban Denver district, Democrat Ed Perlmutter leads Republican Rick O'Donnell by 45-34 percent.

CONNECTICUT 2 - Republican Rep. Rob Simmons leads Democratic challenger Joe Courtney 44-41 percent in this heavily Democratic district, where Simmons has touted helping to save a local submarine base from closing.

CONNECTICUT 4 - Republican Rep. Christopher Shays, a staunch advocate of the Iraq war who emphasizes his independence in a Democratic-leaning district, trails Democrat Dianne Farrell by 46-41 percent.

ILLINOIS 6 - Democrat Tammy Duckworth, a veteran who lost both her legs in Iraq, leads Republican Peter Roskam 43-38 percent in suburban Chicago battle to replace retiring Republican Rep. Henry Hyde.

INDIANA 2 - Democrat Joe Donnelly leads Republican Rep. Chris Chocola, one of the party's three endangered incumbents in normally Republican Indiana, by 48-39 percent.

INDIANA 9 - In a rematch of a close 2004 race, Democratic former congressman Baron Hill leads Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel by 46-38 percent.

IOWA 1 - Republican businessman Mike Whalen leads Democratic lawyer Bruce Braley 47-34 percent for the open seat of Republican Rep. Jim Nussle, who is running for governor.

KENTUCKY 4 - Republican Rep. Geoff Davis leads former Democratic Rep. Ken Lucas 42-36 percent in a heated rematch of their 2002 race.

MINNESOTA 6 - Republican Michele Bachmann leads Democrat Patty Wetterling 46-43 percent in the race to succeed Rep. Mark Kennedy, who is running for senator.

NEW MEXICO 1 - Five-term Republican Rep. Heather Wilson trails Democrat Patricia Madrid 50-40 percent in this Albuquerque-based swing district.

NORTH CAROLINA 11 - Democrat Heath Shuler, a former pro football player, leads Republican Rep. Charles Taylor 51-40 percent.

OHIO 18 - Republican state Sen. Joy Padgett, who won a special primary September 14 to replace scandal-scarred Republican Rep. Bob Ney, trails Democrat Zack Space 45-35 percent.

PENNSYLVANIA 6 - Moderate Republican Rep. Jim Gerlach narrowly trails Democrat Lois Murphy 43-41 percent in a rematch of their close 2004 race, one of three key House contests in the Philadelphia suburbs.

VIRGINIA 2 - First-term Republican Rep. Thelma Drake trails Democrat Phil Kellam 46-42 percent in this conservative and military-oriented Virginia Beach district.
 
Actually in NC 11 Taylor is winning over Shuler. :)

The polls are always wrong in that district and Shuler is not winning over the progessive vote in the District with his fundamentalism Christianity he espouses.

The 'moonbats' on the left (the real radical lefties) will probably stay home. It's looking that way.
 
It jives with my expectations. The Republicans will hold the House by 4 or 5 seats, and I suppose there could be one or two "surprises" in those other eleven races where the Democrats are ahead in the polls.

The Republican losses will be spun as "victory" by the DNC and the MSM, but in the current climate, holding on is the "win" for the Republicans.

IMO, we won't see "Speaker Pelosi" for two more years at least.

And this is just based off of MSM data. Other analysese of the data might paint an even rosier picture for the Republicans.
 
Oh the Republicans will hold onto Congress.

It's a question of how bad the Democrats get spanked.
 
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