Sierra Bullets take on the .22 LR shortage.

[Bexar]

http://sierrabullets.wordpress.com/2014/04/07/why-cant-i-find-22-lr-ammunition/

What also makes sense is that Twenty bucks can buy 500 rounds when found but twenty bucks will barely buy 50 rounds of "white box" pistol ammo.

 

[Geno]

I haven't the slightest clue what all is causing the shortages. I assume that the explanation provided in that article...(and thank-you for the link)...is about as accurate as we ever will find.

Geno

 

[Potatohead]

Thanks for the article Bexar

 

[Bexar]

Y'all are more than welcome and perhaps we'll start seeing an end to this nonsense soon.

I wonder what powder they use in loading .22 LR. I'd sure like to see some Bullseye cross the get on the shelves. They may not use Bullseye but it's gotta be a quick burning pistol powder.

 

[W.E.G.]

Irrational behavior is what drives it.

The key is to be able to smell stupid coming.
Then stay out of the way of stupid when its here.
And when stupid leaves, remember that stupid always comes back.

Stock up on what you need to keep you running for three years worth of shooting.
This .22 rimfire thing isn't even halfway through that cycle yet.

If you are stocking up any more than that, you probably have more than you really need.

 

[mac66]

On thing not touched on in that article is that there was a shortage before the Dec 2012 panic.

While .22 ammo was available in 2012 before the panic and election it was in short supply even then. Retail stores would get it in but it wouldn't last more than a few days at the prices they were selling it and they were limiting it to a couple boxes per customer. I bought a lot of 22 ammo in 2012 but I had to shop for it. I just went back through my local gun forum archives throughout 2012 and every couple days their was a post about where the 22 ammo could be found.

This was a big change from 2010 and 2011 when .22 ammo was both plentiful and cheap. How do I know this? I run a rifle class where .22s are mostly used. We used to go through a lot of ammo. As late at the fall of 2010, 5K cases of LR ammo was just over $100 shipped. By 2011 the cost was up about $20/case by 2012 the cost was up another $30/case.

So what happened?

Obama and the economy...

Obama was elected in 2008, lots of anti gun rhetoric flew about and there was a run on guns and ammo. Remember people saying that Obama was the best gun salesman in history? Lots and lots of people got into shooting for the first time due to him being elected.

And...

...due to he economy ammo prices shot up due to the price of raw materials. Lead, copper and transportation (fuel) costs went through the roof. Yeah, it was the recession and we were still at war and using up a lot of centerfire ammo components over there.

And...

...the result was that all those new shooters Obama created and everybody else started buying and shooting .22s more. Companies responded by making .22 versions of popular rifles. Tactical 22s (S&W M&P22, Sig 522, Ruger SR22 rifles etc, etc) became very popular and people started shooting even more .22 ammo. Centerfire ammo prices continued to increase. (I saw a marked decrease in centerfire use and a sharp increase in rimfire use in my classes from 2008-2012). Heck I basically stopped shooting centerfire all together during that time.

Sales of 22 increased to the point that by the election year (2012) it was frequently not on the shelves and you had to wait and/or look for it. Even so, people could still find it and I remember reading about manufacturers talking about about increasing production to meet the demand long before the November election.

By December, Obama had been re-elected and the Newtown shooting had occurred and the world changed forever.

And....

...I don't think things are going to get any better in the near future and could get worse.

And....

...that's why you can't find .22 ammo.

 

[Vern Humphrey]

That article is dead on -- in fact, I think he has dramatically UNDERSTATED the demand. There are more people who own .22s than he figures. If we each bought a brick, I suspect that would be more like 3 to 4 years' production.

And a lot of us have more than one brick stashed away -- a LOT more.

There's no conspiracy -- just one heck of a lot of demand.

 

[bk42261]

.22 ammo prices

A guy I work with is all POd because he went looking for .22 Mag ammo, and couldn't find ANY.
He went to L.L.Bean of all places, and they had "cheap" .22 (he didn't remember the brand, but it wasn't Federal which he says is the best) for $17 for a "bulk pack". He knew it was crap by looking at the packaging.
He didn't want the "cheap stuff" so he paid $21 American Dollars for 50 rounds of Federal Match ammo!!
His .22 is a H&R revolver and he just started shooting about four months ago and loves it but now wants to buy a .357 because "most of them will also take .38 Special and .38 +P and there's always ammo for them.

 

[jmr40]

Quotes from the link

manufactures say they are running 24/7 on their Rimfire lines which is putting somewhere around 25-30 million rounds PER DAY

You hear all kind of numbers about how many firearms owners are in the USA, but you hear 70-80 million quite often. So for the sake of us not arguing that number – let’s cut it to 35 million. Do you know a gun owner that does not own at least one firearm chambered in .22 LR?

If these numbers are correct this adds up to less than 1 round of 22 ammo being produced per day for each gun owner. Maybe closer to 2 rounds per week.

 

[blarby]

Great- one more horn, preaching to the same choir.

Given even these #'s, someone could still fit in an entire press run for 22 lr and not run afoul of mothballing it anytime soon :/

 

[Ignition Override]

mac66: That is one of the best evaluations of the multi-year factors which created the upward spiral in demand.

Each factor seems to heat up every other piece of the pizza until it can never cool off.

 

[bullzeye8]

Yeah Mac66 I think u summoned up what happened perfectly. I think the problem still is more demand than ever because of new shooters but companies are scared to get new machines in case it gets better and they find out they wasted all that money on the new machines and extra workers however it won't get better until some companies decide to take the risk and with all the new shooters they I do not think it would be a waste

 

[Deltaboy1984]

Sounds about right.

 

[gbran]

I have always stocked up on ammo, long before this shortage, so I still have a large stock of 22's. I haven't bought any at these current prices. Instead, I've just parked all my 22's. If they ever do come back to reasonable prices, I'll start shooting them again.

 

[Bill50]

Before the panick, I bought a brick of .22 before every range trip or when I went to a place that had ammo and it happened to be on sale. I was pretty poor, so this happened fairly infrequently.

I shot a couple hundred rounds in a range trip with a coworker in the new anti-gun state I wa forced to move to.

I'll be moving back home in another week. How am I going to find 22 ammo?

 

[Cee Zee]

Instead of shooting a few hundred rounds of .22 I now shoot maybe 15 rounds or if I've gotten lucky and found a box I will shoot 30 rounds. I stocked up 4 days before the Sandy Hook incident. I was lucky to get what I wanted and I still have a decent stash but I bought it all before the panic hit. I've bought a box here and there since then and I don't shoot any more than I can buy. At least I will have what I need if the varmints come around. I don't need raccoons going through my trash or whatever.

The ammo companies could invest in equipment and pay for it in a short time IMO. They can sell whatever they can produce. How is it they figure they can't pay for new equipment? The ammo companies want high prices because they make more money that way. I don't think they hold back but they don't go out of their way to expand IMO. They could corner the market and sell enough ammo to pay for a lot of new production. They would be set for decades with equipment to make a round that isn't going to go away.

 

[Sam1911]

The ammo companies could invest in equipment and pay for it in a short time IMO.

Oh? Manufacturers have gone as far as they can go with their existing production lines pushed to 24/7 operation. But they can't simply create new production lines/plants for .22 rimfire out of thin air, and they can't pull resources from some other production line (say 9mm, for example) because centerfire and rimfire production are so different there's no commonality in the machinery.

So we have heard news that the various manufacturers are working toward increasing their production capacity, but that takes time -- often years. "Increasing production capacity" may mean everything from having a piece of land surveyed and purchased, planning/zoning, impact studies and stormwater management plans, and electrical distribution systems routed in, wastewater treatment, industrial engineering for the new production lines, machinery spec'd, machinery sourced (uncommon equipment, now suddenly in high demand, itself), personnel hiring, sourcing new streams of raw materials (already over-extended), etc., etc., etc., etc.

They can't just "turn it up to ELEVEN!" Even running at near 100% will end up being problematic. Actually taking steps to change their total capacity is an enormous undertaking.

So these companies have had to predict what's going to happen with the market, finally decide that this panic is long-enduring enough* to actually support whatever new capacity they decide to bring on, and then act on that decision which will probably take in excess of a year -- maybe two! -- to bring about.

* -- Not capitalizing on a boom is bad. Spending a year or more and hundreds of millions of dollars to build a new plant, and finally opening just as folks finally decide they've got enough ammo stacked away, the political situation changes, the pressure's off, and the bottom falls out of the market would be MUCH worse. Companies could go bankrupt over a badly played action like that.


...

But everyone on teh interwebz knows that these greedy slacker ammo companies aren't doing anything to meet the demand because they're making a killing and are perfectly happy to let us shooters starve for ammo just so they can jack the price up, and anyway George Soros owns them all and is tightening down the screws on the industry so we don't have any more ammo to buy, because Obama told him to... yadda yadda...

 

[vaupet]

Yearly ammo consumption in my family (me, wife and 3 children)

15000 .17 air rifle pellets
2000 .22lr (there is no short supply in Europe)
1000 9mm
500 223 rem
500 45 acp
300 6.5x55
300 308
500 miscelanneous

that is a grand total of 20100 shots/y

if every plinker uses 500 shots/y (that is not even 1 50 round pack per month!!) and we have about 40 million regular plinkers in the us, you need 54 million rnds/day on a 365 days /y round the clock production, so their is a structural shortage in production in you produce 35 mil rounds/day

the shortage is structural and the argument used why not to invest is false IMHO, basic math really.

 

[Walkalong]

A very good article which I believe is right on point.

The supply has always been geared up to meet the demand, and not much more, for obvious business reasons. Toss in a once in 100 year craziness where demand skyrockets for a few months, and they fall hopelessly behind. Well, not hopelessly, as they will catch up one of these days, but way behind the curve for sure.

It will catch up, we just have to be patient, which is hard to do sometimes.

 

[Tirod]

The ammo companies haven't decided not to invest. None have said that, the argument doesn't even exist. Remington has already expanded the Lonoke capacity, something they have been working on for three years. Therefore, they saw the situation back when items like .22 began getting scarce and did make the decision.

What the public insists on is instant gratification. Well, the public can insist all it wants, just because retailers molly coddle them and always treat them as if they are right is just courtesy. What retailers and professionals know for a fact is that the public doesn't have a clue, and acts like an irrational three year old when it can't get it's way about something. Then politicians step in to play them and nothing is really fixed.

So those insisting on the ammo companies being able to expand their capacity, RIGHT NOW! are sadly just ignorant of what really has to happen. If anyone wants to buy a million round a day machine and go into business themselves, go ahead and try - place an order for the machine, powder, lead, brass, and then sit down with a three year calendar and start planning when you will get the stuff.

First of all, the machine makers are WHO? Name one. If you can, what is the lead time on getting it? They are very likely booked out with future ship dates already, after all, Remington jumped in years ago to place an order, and that kind of thinking already existed in the ammo trade. If you have to wait for 6-9 months to get a machine AFTER the order is placed, then how is it possible to even get production ramped up tomorrow? Not happening.

And you haven't even broken ground on the building - the architect will take his sweet time and you will get the plans for breaking ground next spring. Next week is ludicrous - ground surveys, geological surveys, extending utilities, roads, the parking lot needs to have a holding sump to prevent flooding the nearby watershed - which is the environmental survey. Break ground on that without the proper studies and licenses, and you will likely spend most of your capital money defending yourself in court. We the people don't like raping the environment and setting up your plant outside a properly zoned lot where your infrastructure is going to ruin our property values. Hence, the Remington plant "at" Lonoke being way out in the flatlands away from anything.

And in this day and age, if it's an expansion on the plant you already have in an industrial zone, you may well be landlocked.

Those of us who have supplied commercial construction can go on for pages, but the reality is that ordering equipment and then getting it installed in a plant in less than a year is ignorant chest thumping. It took Remington three years - and it goes right back to what happens then? We the people are darned fickle, gas could go up, a new administration get in office, and things go back to a new normal where we wipe the desperation off our brow and stand down for a few years. That idles demand, the brand new machines go dormant, and a multi million dollar plant suddenly sucks the profit out of the business because it can't pay the bills. Ammo prices then start rising because the huge plants geared to make milllions of rounds a day aren't running to pay their way, but the ammo that is selling needs to.

You want $2 a round centerfire ammo in 2017? "I want cheap ammo NOW!" is exactly what it looks like, a demand with no thought about the unintended consequences.

Do I know what is causing the shortage? Well, it's not a shortage, every source in the industry has been saying they are running at full capacity, and they have been saying it for over 18 months. What is causing the shortage is panic buying by consumers who are buying ammo on credit cards. They are leveraging their future income for ammo to sit in their basement now - which they can't eat, won't keep them warm, and won't shoot. It's not really about the ammo, it's about their personal security blanket, having a warm cozy feeling they will be able to weather whatever life throws at them. Not much different than a cord of firewood sitting outside the house at first snow, or three months food stored against hard times.

What Americans have been doing is reacting to a lack of comfort about changing times - it's a backlash against that, and they are using ammo as their pacifier. The smart politicians will cozy up to that for votes and get them.

 

[ares338]

The last 22 LR I bought was at Wal Mart at $8.00 for 500. I have about 800 rounds stocked up to use for when the grand son visits. I don't shoot it much myself so it doesn't worry me much. I reload for my pistols.

 

[John828]

Maybe the shortage is lightening up since this hasn't been merged into the mega thread yet

 

[22-rimfire]

I think the article is pretty much on the mark. Once something becomes in short supply and there is a high demand, human psychology takes over and when given the opportunity, if I would buy one normally, I would buy three now. Who here wouldn't?

The pyschology maintains the high demand even if consumption is not matching production because it is easy to store 5,000 rounds of 22LR. Some will have vastly greater inventories on hand. The shortage has turned casual shooters into potential hoarders.

 

[buck460XVR]

Good article, but nothing the other ammo manufactures haven't been tellin' us for the last two years. I am surprised tho, that even after 25 posts, that the "I don't believe those lies, it's a Government conspiracy to take away our shooting rights!" poster hasn't shown up.

One thing I didn't see in the article was how much folks may have increased their shooting of .22 ammo in the last decade, thus adding to the demand. Growin' up as a boy in the 50-60s, a .22 was over my shoulder probably 200 of the 365 days a year. Still, a brick of .22 ammo would last for years. Even shooting rats at the dump on a weekly basis, a box of 50 would last most of the summer. Even when one took that occasional shot at a new discarded item that just needed a hole in it. After a day of hunting squirrels, one would take pride in having a tree rat hangin' on their belt for every empty spot in the cartridge box. Shooting a whole box of 50 at one time at the range was unheard of, unless one had just gotten a new gun. Now...it seems, if one does not have a bulk carton of 300 or more rounds to go to the range, it ain't hardly worth going. 4-5 years ago, when my two boys and I would go to the range, we'd stop at Wally-World and get two bulks pacs....every time we went to the range, which was once or twice a month. We'd generally always go thru one of them and always start on the second. One reason we always got two. Thank goodness we did....as those partial boxes we brought home, stashed on the shelf and forgot about on the next trip, are what gave us ammo to shoot, when there was nuttin' to buy. Sad part is, the nonavailability to get cheap and plentiful .22 ammo has gotten us into the habit of leaving the .22s at home now when we go to the range. Even the grand-kids have gotten into shooting the handgun caliber carbines instead of the 10/22s and the Buckmarks. Just lately, has it become relatively common to see .22 ammo on the shelves around here for prices one would expect to pay. Hopefully the days of buyin' and shooting 500 rounds every range trip will return to our family.

 

[BullfrogKen]

If the prices rose in a shortage - like it does with gasoline - we'd have more .22LR available - just like with gasoline.

Wal-Mart and other gun shops commitment NOT to permit price increases during scarcity ensures shortages at those stores. Shops that are willing to pay more - and charge their customers more - will get inventory replenished more quickly than those that won't.


For some reason the community, all of us - manufacturers, retailers, and the customers - won't tolerate a price increase in .22LR like we will with gasoline, milk, beef, or any other commodity. Prices are what communicates shortages in a market economy, and the higher prices draw investment, profit, and increased capacity.


Oh well . . . it is what it is.

I still believe the demand curve for .22LR has shifted to the right over the pat decade. The sheer variety of dedicated .22LR copies of popular firearms (AR15) and .22LR uppers for others today really didn't exist 10 years ago.

Back when I got into shooting .22LR was for hunting, small bore and bullseye competitions, and shooting as cans and such with kids.

Today the round is ubiquitous as a low-cost training alternative. Or at least it was . . .