Sierra Bullets take on the .22 LR shortage.

[mboylan]

.........

 

[mboylan]

Y'all are more than welcome and perhaps we'll start seeing an end to this nonsense soon.

I wonder what powder they use in loading .22 LR. I'd sure like to see some Bullseye cross the get on the shelves. They may not use Bullseye but it's gotta be a quick burning pistol powder.

The powders available to reloaders are generally not used by big brand commercial ammunition manufacturers. They have their own proprietary powders and blends of powders.

.22 powder is very fast and probably often blended. The powders are not available to reloaders.

 

[Potatohead]

The ammo companies could invest in equipment and pay for it in a short time IMO.

Negative. For starters, this is probably not equipment that you just run down to Home Depot and grab. C'mon man.

Secondly, Why buy a bunch of crap you wont be using 2 years from now? Is selling a bunch more 10$ boxes of 22s really going to help your bottom line that much for for the next year and a half until the bubble bursts? If it dont make dollars it dont make sense (cents) (I made that up myself).

But Im sure the guy doesnt really know what he's talking about, since he's the Vice President of Marketing and all. (or whatever his title was)

 

[mboylan]

Agreed that in the last 3 decades .22 consumption per range trip has increased immensely due to high capacity mags in semi-autos and the video game blast away mentality. Serious marksmanship is too boring for the new generation of shooters and most are horrible shots.

30 or more years ago, alot of kids started shooting at 50 foot targets from 50 feet in youth programs. They were expected to hold a little bigger than quarter sized groups from 3 positions at that distance just to hit the scoring area. That introduction to shooting is almost gone.

If all new shooters were introduced to shooting with something like the Appleseed program, ammo consumption would not be what it is.

 

[buck460XVR]

Agreed that in the last 3 decades .22 consumption per range trip has increased immensely due to high capacity mags in semi-autos and the video game blast away mentality. Serious marksmanship is too boring for the new generation of shooters and most are horrible shots.



If all new shooters were introduced to shooting with something like the Appleseed program, ammo consumption would not be what it is.

Back in the 50s-60s, most auto loading and pump .22s has capacities of 15 or more rounds. In the 70s I had a 50 round drum for my 10/22. High cap mags for rimfire is not a new thing. FPS video games did not get popular till years after the AWB of 1994, clearly showing that high capacity firearms and the love for them is not just a product of video games.

Part of the reason we shot less 40 years ago was we didn't have the expendable money to spend on ammo.....even tho it was cheap. Gas was cheap and plentiful back then also, but folks only had one vehicle and only drove the 5 miles to town once a week. Can't say that today.

I help teach hunter safety. I have found that kids today are much better shots than they were 40 or even 20 years ago. Some of it has to do with the simulation of video games, but for the most part is because they shoot more and have better equipment. Growing up and over the years of going with my dad to the range to sight in rifles, I probably shot no more than 100 rounds total with him.....and this was more than most kids go to shoot. Even adults would shoot only 3-4 rounds at the range a year to make sure they and their guns were still "on". One reason you heard so many shots on opening day was because folks missed so much. My boys and I shoot more in an hour than my dad, me and all my siblings ever shot in all the years of going to the range together.....it's just how it was. Today, it's not unusual to see folks shooting their deer rifles at any time of year.......back when I was a kid, outside of deer season, the only time they got shot was the weekend before. One reason many of us kids were any good shooting at all was because we grew up with a BB gun in our hands. We learned to get close and we learned to make a good first shot. When we had a few extra cents in our pocket we bought a tube of BBs, not a box of .22. BBs didn't got thru barn and silo roofs like .22 did. Kids don't start out much with BB guns anymore.......seems most dads anymore think they're a waste of time and want them to start with a .22.

 

[Sam1911]

FPS video games did not get popular till years after the AWB of 1994

Oh (not to get off track, but) I'd disagree there. DOOM came out in '93. By '94 it was a craze.

But I'll agree that I don't think a huge portion of shooters really got lured into the world of real trigger-time by playing FPS type games.

 

[Agsalaska]

If the prices rose in a shortage - like it does with gasoline - we'd have more .22LR available - just like with gasoline.

Wal-Mart and other gun shops commitment NOT to permit price increases during scarcity ensures shortages at those stores. Shops that are willing to pay more - and charge their customers more - will get inventory replenished more quickly than those that won't.


For some reason the community, all of us - manufacturers, retailers, and the customers - won't tolerate a price increase in .22LR like we will with gasoline, milk, beef, or any other commodity. Prices are what communicates shortages in a market economy, and the higher prices draw investment, profit, and increased capacity.


Oh well . . . it is what it is.

I still believe the demand curve for .22LR has shifted to the right over the pat decade. The sheer variety of dedicated .22LR copies of popular firearms (AR15) and .22LR uppers for others today really didn't exist 10 years ago.

Back when I got into shooting .22LR was for hunting, small bore and bullseye competitions, and shooting as cans and such with kids.

Today the round is ubiquitous as a low-cost training alternative. Or at least it was . . .

Absolutely 100% correct and a point completely missed by the article. The cause of the 22lr, at its core, is pricing.

Also, it is wrong to call the actions of the public irrational. This is all rational behavior in an economic sense. And because this is a discussion about the economics around 22lr I thought I would clarify that.

 

[Cee Zee]

Shops that are willing to pay more - and charge their customers more - will get inventory replenished more quickly than those that won't.

That is the core of the problem IMO. The ammo companies have little to gain as long as people pay more for what they make their profits stay high. But at some point some company will take advantage of a booming market and make a fortune doing it. That's how little companies become huge companies. And people act like it isn't in the best interest of the ammo companies to buy new equipment. It won't dry up and blow away if the panic ends. Demand is going to be high because a lot of people have gotten into shooting thanks to Obama. Sure it looks bad on a quarterly expense report but that's the biggest problem US companies have IMO. They look at the next quarter when they should look at the next quarter of a century. Their old equipment will wear out eventually and they will have new equipment even if demand drops off and they don't happen to pay for that equipment in a big hurry.

If the demand is really there then some oriental company is going to step up and take over the market by actually supplying people with ammo. Then the US companies will have a giant producer to compete against. Does anyone really think that the Chinese would hesitate to jump into a new market like the current situation? We have restrictions on buying ammo from them or they likely would have done it already.

The thing about supply and demand is that there are two ways prices can go down. Demand can go down or supplies can go up. And there is lots of room to make lots of money by investing in the ammo making business.

Let's look at the bottled water industry. There were 100 companies selling water in bottles just out of the blue. They didn't just go fill those bottles n a river. They had to invest in production. And it paid off big time for them. Many would have argued that the demand would drop eventually. It didn't. There are many profitable companies selling bottled water now including the traditional big drink bottling companies (Coke and Pepsi). Companies took a risk on something that was actually a lot less likely to maintain the level of demand. After all we all have a source of water or we would be dead. We sure didn't need it to be bottled in plants and sold in gas stations. But that's exactly what happened. Some companies invested heavily into bottling plants.

If companies took a risk on something that seemed ridiculous to many and made it pay off they can certainly take a risk on something that seems likely to pay off quickly. I don't buy that they're so scared to invest in new equipment. Someone can build a huge new plant and make money on it IMO. Is it a sure thing? Very few things are. Bottled water certainly wasn't but I'd like to own a chunk of one of the new companies that put water in a bottle and charged a buck fifty for it.

 

[Tirod]

Whatever price the shop is putting on the ammo has nothing to do with how much they were buying when the panic started. It's been explained elsewhere, but the mechanism is very sinple - when there is more demand than supply, the manufacturers ship according to what percentage of their sales the buyer had before, and that is what they get now.

Whatever the buyer then prices the ammo at has no value in their rationing - and, in point of fact, they don't really want to know. It leads to price manipulation which becomes a matter of enforcement under the law. About all they are concerned about it discounting it too heavily from MSRP, which would imply that it's inflated and other customers are getting gouged. It's a balancing act.

Postulating that one internet web site selling at 2X over MSRP can then get more ammo than another, who buys in truckload shipments, is a false notion. It's rationed by previous sales history - if they were a 5% buyer overall in the past, they get 5% of the current production. When things start piling up on the warehouse floor, then it's open season on ammo sales. Buy all you can. That way no one is discriminated against and everybody gets some, rather than a few getting it all.

Lets consider - under these circumstances, if the big players could buy all they want, would you see ANY ammo at the little gun shops across America? And yet when I recently bought a compact 9mm, they threw in a box of new Hornady Critical Defense. It's the biggest gun store in town, but they aren't anything like Bass Pro, Academy, Cabela's, or even Walmart. They got it. Price wasn't the guideline.

 

[Agsalaska]

Whatever price the shop is putting on the ammo has nothing to do with how much they were buying when the panic started. It's been explained elsewhere, but the mechanism is very sinple - when there is more demand than supply, the manufacturers ship according to what percentage of their sales the buyer had before, and that is what they get now.

Whatever the buyer then prices the ammo at has no value in their rationing - and, in point of fact, they don't really want to know. It leads to price manipulation which becomes a matter of enforcement under the law. About all they are concerned about it discounting it too heavily from MSRP, which would imply that it's inflated and other customers are getting gouged. It's a balancing act.

Postulating that one internet web site selling at 2X over MSRP can then get more ammo than another, who buys in truckload shipments, is a false notion. It's rationed by previous sales history - if they were a 5% buyer overall in the past, they get 5% of the current production. When things start piling up on the warehouse floor, then it's open season on ammo sales. Buy all you can. That way no one is discriminated against and everybody gets some, rather than a few getting it all.

Lets consider - under these circumstances, if the big players could buy all they want, would you see ANY ammo at the little gun shops across America? And yet when I recently bought a compact 9mm, they threw in a box of new Hornady Critical Defense. It's the biggest gun store in town, but they aren't anything like Bass Pro, Academy, Cabela's, or even Walmart. They got it. Price wasn't the guideline.

I think you are addressing my post and the post from bullfrogKen. And I think you missed our point. We are not talking about distribution.

There is a simple pricing theory that says if you are running out of inventory of a certain item consistently before you re-supply then you are underpriced. That is exactly what is happening here. The retailers are underpricing their goods. Everything else, from the gougers to the scalpers to this thread, is a result of that.

In other words, the rational decision would be to raise prices. Not raising prices and allowing your shelves to be bare 99% of operating hours is irrational.

Now there are reasons they are doing that. Some of which are margin based(I disagree with that philosophy but thats for a different board), some are pricing contracts, some are simply reacting to the rest of the market.


Normal goods, which 22lr is, will always try to find equilibrium in pricing. Healthy markets will not have very wide variations, locally, in pricing of like items. Some places will be a little cheaper than others on certain items and some will be more expensive. BUt they will all be close and what most people think is chepar or more expensive is often perception. One result of unhealthy markets is often wide variations in pricing of like items. It is usually caused by some kind of shock to the market and can last for days to years depending on circumstance. But, in this case, you have like items selling for as little as $20 and as much as $100 in the same market. The 5x variance is a problem. Thoe prices are trying to come together and will on their own if allowed too.

In this case, and in most cases, the wild variations and inevitable shortages are caused by the low price not rising to meet demand. Until it does nothing else will really change.

 

[buck460XVR]

I live in a small town in the rural Mid-West. Around here, the good stores are not jackin' the price up on their .22 ammo. They are out of it as often as they have it. Some stores have outrageous prices on their .22 ammo and have it on hand all the time. The former gets folks coming in regularly lookin' for .22 ammo and those folks often will buy something else if .22 ammo is not there. When they see the .22 ammo there for a decent price they are compelled to come back. The latter of the two gets those folks looking for .22 ammo because their buddy told him they have it in stock. They go, see the price and either pay it resentfully or walk out thinkin' the store is a rip-off. Because they think that store is overpriced on their .22 ammo and has no problems rippin' folks off, that their other prices will reflect the same.(most times it is) For example, a small LGS in a near-by town has a sign in their front window claiming they have .22 ammo in stock. They have had .22 ammo and that sign continuously since the shortage began. The ammo is priced @ $9.99 for a box of 50. The ammo is stacked on the counter by the cash register. 3 months ago I went in there and on the top of the stack was a box with a torn flap on one end. Last week I went in there and that same box was on top the stack yet. The guy was whinin' to me about the poor economy and how few folks he had comin' thru the door. I was in there for probably 15 minutes and never saw another customer. The same handguns were in the same position in the case as they were last January. The week before I was at my favorite LGS in another town and the line was 5 deep at both counters with folks lookin' at guns and buyin' ammo....even tho they had no .22. When .22 ammo is easy to find again, I wonder where the customers will be?

 

[Agsalaska]

I live in a small town in the rural Mid-West. Around here, the good stores are not jackin' the price up on their .22 ammo. They are out of it as often as they have it. Some stores have outrageous prices on their .22 ammo and have it on hand all the time. The former gets folks coming in regularly lookin' for .22 ammo and those folks often will buy something else if .22 ammo is not there. When they see the .22 ammo there for a decent price they are compelled to come back. The latter of the two gets those folks looking for .22 ammo because their buddy told him they have it in stock. They go, see the price and either pay it resentfully or walk out thinkin' the store is a rip-off. Because they think that store is overpriced on their .22 ammo and has no problems rippin' folks off, that their other prices will reflect the same.(most times it is) For example, a small LGS in a near-by town has a sign in their front window claiming they have .22 ammo in stock. They have had .22 ammo and that sign continuously since the shortage began. The ammo is priced @ $9.99 for a box of 50. The ammo is stacked on the counter by the cash register. 3 months ago I went in there and on the top of the stack was a box with a torn flap on one end. Last week I went in there and that same box was on top the stack yet. The guy was whinin' to me about the poor economy and how few folks he had comin' thru the door. I was in there for probably 15 minutes and never saw another customer. The same handguns were in the same position in the case as they were last January. The week before I was at my favorite LGS in another town and the line was 5 deep at both counters with folks lookin' at guns and buyin' ammo....even tho they had no .22. When .22 ammo is easy to find again, I wonder where the customers will be?

Buck, Thats a very good post and a reality of unhealthy markets. They are using 22lr as a loss leader just like a big retailer would do with cheap TV's. I think that is what a lot of businesses are doing. In fact, personally speaking, If I owned a gun store I would probably do the same thing.


I have to point out though that doesnt change the fact that the variances in sales prices is the cause of the shortages. It just explains a reason why it is happening.




On another note, and I am not arguing with your experience, but a lot of that is just perception. CTD is a bad word on these boards. They are universaly hated across all gun boards. But they are also busier than they have ever been and making more money than they ever have. They just opened a store North of Dallas and are moving into a brand new facility in Fort Worth.

 

[jrdolall]

I have been shooting .22 LR all my life. It was my first gun just like it was the first gun of many, if not the vast majority, of gun owners that have been around for 40 years or more.

Most of us started out with a bolt action or pump .22. I don't think I had a friend with a semi .22 until the mid 70's and those were 10-22's I think. I know they were out there but WE didn't have them. I started collecting guns in the mid 80's and got my first semi (tube fed)in around 1985. I have always lived in a rural area where I could easily shoot every day if I wanted.

Until the past 10 years I was not a voracious user of .22 LR because I didn't have guns with 30 round magazines. Now I have probably 10 guns that have "hi cap" magazines and I can blow through a brick of ammo in an afternoon with no problem. 10 years ago a brick would last me a month. It takes a long time to shoot 500 rounds through a revolver. Compare that to an AR-22 with 3 30 round magazines, 25 round mags for the 10-22's, an AK-22, and on and on.

How many people start off with a bolt action 22 in today's world? There are more gun owners and therefore more .22 owners. There are more 22's that use hi cap magazines. There is a crazy political climate which has caused more people to stock up in fear of not being able to get ammo in the future. Even at the higher prices for plinking ammo it is still cheaper to fill the closet with 22 than with any other round.

 

[natman]

* -- Not capitalizing on a boom is bad. Spending a year or more and hundreds of millions of dollars to build a new plant, and finally opening just as folks finally decide they've got enough ammo stacked away, the political situation changes, the pressure's off, and the bottom falls out of the market would be MUCH worse. Companies could go bankrupt over a badly played action like that.

Bingo.

The ammo companies can increase production up to a point by running three shifts and adding some new equipment in the existing space. Expanding beyond that requires a major investment in time and money and it's just too great a risk to be extended that far in order to satisfy a demand bubble that can (and IMO eventually will) burst.

 

[commygun]

"What Americans have been doing is reacting to a lack of comfort about changing times - it's a backlash against that, and they are using ammo as their pacifier."

I think this is a bigger factor in the prolonged shortage than is usually acknowledged. I'm guessing that most of those millions of guns bought in the last few years (or any other year) are not being shot very much, and many of them not at all. You don't have to be a sociologist to recognize that there's a general feeling of uncertainty and malaise in the country, and I would think that more .22 is being stashed than at any time since WWII.

 

[Agsalaska]

"What Americans have been doing is reacting to a lack of comfort about changing times - it's a backlash against that, and they are using ammo as their pacifier."

I think this is a bigger factor in the prolonged shortage than is usually acknowledged. I'm guessing that most of those millions of guns bought in the last few years (or any other year) are not being shot very much, and many of them not at all. You don't have to be a sociologist to recognize that there's a general feeling of uncertainty and malaise in the country, and I would think that more .22 is being stashed than at any time since WWII.

I agree that is a major factor driving demand.

 

[hardheart]

I see no benefit for me in a price increase. If, as has been speculated, the manufacturers refuse to take the additional revenues to increase capacity, then higher prices now will not lead to lower prices later. All it will do is grant them economic profits during a bubble, and after the bubble, capacity will still be the same. Either leave the price alone, and I can't buy due to lack of supply, or raise the price and I won't buy due to the higher price. Makes no difference to me in either case, because in either case it does nothing to change the amount supplied in the future, so I have no incentive to spend now. If the demand curve has shifted to the right, and manufacturers refuse to shift the supply curve right, then its just a new equilibrium at a higher price. Although who knows why they disagree with the assessment that there are more 22 shooters, since they seem content to ignore the potential increase in sales by raising production capacity. In the long run the economic profits will return to zero as substitute products pick up revenues in response to the higher cost of shooting 22. I don't know what the specific alternatives would be, but the demand elasticity of 22LR is going to increase over time, it does for everything.

 

[Skylerbone]

I read the article and a year ago I would have agreed completely. The strange thing is, nothing about this shortage makes much sense. I warned friends to stock up on .22s before the panic (which they did not) and even online I could not find the particular brands I was looking for until recently at any price.

Locally speaking, the big box stores are forever out of .22lr, having given out their delivery schedules, every one of them is ransacked at opening until the supply is literally exhausted before the crowd lined up to buy it is exhausted. When I enquire, I'm told the truck comes in on ____day, show up a half-hour before opening. I reply that I won't take off work to stand in line and wait for a single box of bulk ammo. Clerks reply that I won't ever get any ammo...but I have, not usually locally but rather by spotting it online and ordering. I've received 4 bricks in 3 weeks with another on the way and rest assured I shoot it.

One note of particular interest to me is the availability of .22lr at my favorite LGS. He got in a case of Lapua Midas which has languished on the counter for nearly 2 months with a price of $11/50. I've bought a brick's worth from him and it shoots very well indeed but other customers seem content with inquiring about .22 ammo, being directed to that case and walking away empty-handed.

My conclusion is that many shooters are simply unaccustomed to paying any more than Walmart bulk pack prices for ammo and would prefer not shooting to spending more. We all have a budget by which we must live but seeing 20 somethings walk from $11 ammo while sporting $80 jeans (with holes) and $150 sneakers tells me that not everyone is as serious about shooting as many of us tend to be.

Of course demand is outstripping supply at present, but I firmly believe that manufacturers are catching up and just as quickly as new shooters were lured in, many are turning away after being turned off. Too bad really and one reason I still give away ammo at the range to new shooters, having parted with a brick just last week. It's a pity really that the potential we have to strengthen the future of firearms owners is being stifled by this shortage.

 

[bluekouki86]

They can't just "turn it up to ELEVEN!" Even running at near 100% will end up being problematic. Actually taking steps to change their total capacity is an enormous undertaking.

Sam1911 brings up a very important point. I am a millwright at the largest aluminum rolling mill in the world, and trust me about the importance of maintenance down time. Running equipment into the ground is a terrible business practice. Can you imagine the cost of repairing/replacing neglected machinery? Then you have the added down time of zero production for a substantial amount of time. I can tell you an hour of down time at my mill costs $65,000! These manufactures are busting their back sides right now, I can guarantee it.

 

[Sam1911]

I see no benefit for me in a price increase. ... Either leave the price alone, and I can't buy due to lack of supply, or raise the price and I won't buy due to the higher price. Makes no difference to me in either case

But "won't buy" is a discretionary choice on your part. If you -- or anyone else -- finds themselves in NEED of .22 for some reason (you're out and the grandkids are coming to down, or there's a match you want to shoot, or squirrel season's coming ... whatever) have the option of ponying up a little bit more cash and actually GETTING ammo.

If the price is so low that the shelves are always bare, it doesn't matter that you might put an extra $20 on the counter for a box because you want to make your grand-kids smile and the extra cost is less important. You just CAN'T get it, period. Retailers setting the price to hold demand in check does benefit all of us.

The fact that maybe you've got plenty stacked away and won't buy MORE at higher prices doesn't matter. The fact that you can shoot center-fire instead doesn't matter either. What matters is that keeping some available, even by using a higher price point to stave off that rampant demand, benefits the consumer.

... so I have no incentive to spend now.

GREAT! No body WANTs you to go buy now. The only incentive you should have to buy .22 right now is if you NEED .22 right now. If you can hold off for a while, by all means do so. Buying up ammo is not some altruistic act, contributing to "the cause." STOP IT if you can, and help the demand settle back down.

... since they seem content to ignore the potential increase in sales by raising production capacity.

Ok, I think we've dispensed with the myth that the manufactures are "refusing" to increase production and production capacity. These things require careful analysis, and then enormous investments and time -- IF the manufacturers agree that more production capacity is the right long-term strategy. Getting stuck paying for machinery to pour out 5 million rounds of ammo a day will KILL a company if the demand falls back to 900,000 rounds a day next year.

 

[ColtPythonElite]

Skylerbone,

I would load up on Midas at $11.50. That is about 5 bucks under retail.

 

[22-rimfire]

My conclusion is that many shooters are simply unaccustomed to paying any more than Walmart bulk pack prices for ammo and would prefer not shooting to spending more. We all have a budget by which we must live but seeing 20 somethings walk from $11 ammo while sporting $80 jeans (with holes) and $150 sneakers tells me that not everyone is as serious about shooting as many of us tend to be.

Many people are not accustomed to paying more than big box store bulk prices. I would probably fit into that catagory for "bulk" or promotional 22LR ammunition. As a result, I simply am not shooting very often. And yes, I have a lot of 22LR at home, but refuse to use it up when replacement is such a pain. I resist buying those $80 jeans or $150 tennis shoes and don't.

Few people have to shoot a firearm. It is a conscious decision by the consumer to shoot and it is usually plinking with 22LR. You can't compare this to "accepting" price increases with milk, food, and such things as gasoline as you have to consume these products.

The point made earlier about use and as a result demand is a good one. I thought it a big deal to shoot 200 rounds of 22LR in a day (in 50 or 100 round boxes). Now, that is usually a bulk pack. People including me (when I shoot), go through a lot more 22LR when they are shooting due to using semi-auto rifles and handguns. But it is all about fun and I am all for that. But this sort of use definitely impacts the supply chain.

Added: Packaging has a lot to do with it too in terms of use. The ammunition manufactures definitely understand the psychology of plinking with 22's. That' why you have "bulk packs". I bet if 22LR was packaged in 10 round bubble packs, you'd shoot less even with an abundant supply at Walmart.

 

[buck460XVR]

My conclusion is that many shooters are simply unaccustomed to paying any more than Walmart bulk pack prices for ammo and would prefer not shooting to spending more.

I'm one of them. I refuse to pay more for .22 ammo than I pay to reload .38, .357, .44, .44mag and .45ACP. Iffin I'm gonna shoot 50 rounds that cost me ten bucks, why not shoot my own? The popularity of shooting .22 did not have to do with it being such a great performer, but because it was cheap. Because it is relatively inexpensive is why folks tend to stock up and hoard even if they don't need it. For half a century, I hardly ever heard of anyone having more than a brick or two of .22 ammo at one time. This was even those that shot .22 all the time. Nowadays, Most everyone I know, buys as much as they can, and have 5 bricks or so at home, and they don't even shoot. A year and a half ago, a friend of mine bragged about buying three bricks of .22 at Farm & Fleet. After he went home and thought about it, he went back and bought three more. Went out to eat with him last week and I asked how much he had shot of it.....answer? None. It the same phenomenon that I saw back when the AWB was signed. Folks buying up Hi-cap mags at inflated prices because they were afraid they wouldn't be available. Those folks shot maybe a box of shells a year outta the gun they were buyin' the mags for. Many of those mags have sat for 20 years without being taken outta the plastic wrapper they came in and will be for sale at an estate auction in a few years. I see the same with .22 ammo. It's not just an increase in shooters and interest in shooting driving the demand, but the human nature of desiring something that may not be available. As with my friend, I see the obtaining of the unobtainable, is almost a badge of honor. Look at the amount of posts one sees here and on other gun forums titled "Yippee...I scored!" and folks go on about the two bricks of .22 they got. Then folks coo and ahh, tell them how good they have done and beg then to sell some so they can have some too. I dunno.........

 

[BSA1]

The 22 Rimfire shortage certainly has been a interesting and hopefully a bit educational.

My primary assumption is the shortage of firearms, ammunition and reloading components in 2013 was a result of politicial actions and fears. As a result of several states passing strict gun laws, the Newtown shooting, abuse of power by the BATF and IRS and Obama strategy of dividing groups a very real fear of losing our protection in th e2A existed.

As time as passed we have seen much of this concern subside as Congress is deadlocked between parties so no new gun restrictions have a prayer of a chance of passing. Firearms, including AR's, are back on dealers shelves often at discounted prices.

Ammo inventories are up although some reloading supplies are tight. Folks who reload are ammo "Preppers".

So if my assumption that the current shortage is due largely to politics the Republicans winning control of both the Senate and the House will effectively end any threat of anti-gun legislation until after the Presidential elections in 2016. Thus 22 inventories should increase the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015.

The challenge for manufacturers is determining what the demand for 22 ammo will be in the long-term, at least for the next 5 years, and longer. If this is really just a bubble there is going to be a hugh headache for manufacturers and retailers sitting on warehouse full of unsold 22 ammo.

In the business world panic buying even for 2 years is not enough to justified investing in millions of dollars in increased production and employee costs.

 

[buck460XVR]

So if my assumption that the current shortage is due largely to politics the Republicans winning control of both the Senate and the House will effectively end any threat of anti-gun legislation until after the Presidential elections in 2016. Thus 22 inventories should increase the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015.

While the ammo/component/firearm shortage was initially fueled because of unfounded fears of gun legislation and internet conspiracy theories, there was never any legislation or political action that directly led to the national shortage. Unlike the Hi-cap mags after 1994, this was a fear driven shortage, partially driven by folks with political grudges against those in power. Since the .22 shortage has been in decline for several months, as has been the shortage of firearms and other ammo, forecasting that inventories will continue to increase is a no brainer. Especially when ammo companies have been assuring us the shortage is demand driven and much of the shortage lately is logistics. Kinda like predicting the sun is coming up tomorrow. While keeping pro-2nd Amendment folks in power is a good way to assure our gun rights will be protected in the future, it' hard for me to give folks credit when they haven't done anything. This is like saying that the Harley shortage in 2001-2004 was eliminated because John Kerry was defeated.