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Stop Buying Ammo For a Month...

Discussion in 'General Gun Discussions' started by Rawss, Mar 23, 2013.

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  1. Mac2

    Mac2 Member

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    This is one of the reasons I am so glad I reload. First and foremost is the joy of the hobby and custom loads I can tailor to each application, not to mention we shoot as much as we want and don't even think about it. Other than the case of 7.62 I bought a while back, I can't remember the last centerfire rounds I've bought. When I bought reloading components, I did so in mega bulk, to offset the hazmat charges and the shipping costs only a little more with mega bulk. Reloading components are as hard to get as ammo right now, but with what I have done before the crunch, we're good. We've slowed down a little, but we still get to the range when we want. We just shoot 100-150 each vs 200 each like we used to. I've certainly noticed less folks at the range because of the crunch. My wife thanked me the other week for going by the sporting section and buying "another one" of those bulk boxes of .22s about every 3rd time we went to Walmart. And I thought $19 was kinda steep then...
     
  2. Tolkachi Robotnik

    Tolkachi Robotnik Member

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    Bottlenecks and lack of elasticity

    End of year is not a good time for an ammo run. Inventories were low and bottlenecks are obvious.

    I did buy one box of ammo at Walmart, it was regularly priced and I have not shot it up yet. It was 9mm. I could have bought two more boxes but figured someone else might enjoy getting a box, it seemed novel to me at the time maybe ten days ago now.

    I do believe a month of cooling off would be an idea. Get on-line and look at the 'deals', and don't feel any need to act.

    LEO are not very likely to stockpile huge amounts of ammo. Most of them are about average or below for net worth and buy enough to get along. Local law enforcement agencies aren't that plush either.

    The things that are short supply are (or were) really inexpensive and it does not cost most people any real loss to sit on a large supply. Before this all came down 9mm, .223, .308, and .22LR were all really low dollar ammo. The .45ACP was not as low dollar, and it stayed around awhile longer on the shelves.

    Now around here 30-06 and 30-30 are pretty well fully stocked inventory. That either means the people who shoot them are less fragile psychologically, or the people who shoot those are more likely to have enough already. Maybe a little of both.

    I believe it might make some difference if you just quit a month, and did not even go up looking for it...
     
  3. The-Reaver

    The-Reaver Member

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    I have occasionally gotten lucky lately.

    Mostly on crap ammo. I picked up 500 rounds of 7.62x25 for 30 cents a round.
    I picked up some 9x19 ( Value pack ) $20 bucks.
    Some 7.62x39 ( Tula ) $5.98 a box.

    Same prices as prior to the start of this nonsense. I refuse to jump into this scare crap and pay outrages prices.
     
  4. Ignition Override

    Ignition Override Member

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    "GunBot" seems to be updated much more often than Ammoseek.
     
  5. Bobson

    Bobson Member

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    This reminds me of those emails a few years back when gas was approaching $2.50 a gallon for the first time ever, and people were freaking out and insisting on a "Don't Buy Gas" day, declaring that one day without sales would break the backs of the oil companies, forcing them to give in and drop prices. Bottom line is that on the day after, or the month following one where nobody buys ammo, the prior need is still there - and it might even be higher than it was before.

    This wouldn't solve any problems, except for those of us who would agree, then sneak off and buy ammo anyway.
     
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2013
  6. btg3

    btg3 Member

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    Is this realistic? Consider those that line up at the big box for a chance to buy ammo. Locally, it seems the first 10 people leave slim pickings for the remaining 20 people that had waited in line. So if 30% complied with your "hoping", the problem would shift, but not be resolved. What level of abstinence do you think might be effective and do you actually think it is plausible? How so?

    I think your proposal is consistent with liberal thinking and wealth redistribution.
     
  7. jmorris

    jmorris Member

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    I haven't bought any ammo or reloading components since last September as I wanted a jump on the post election panic. All I have seen is prices go up.

    It's too late for "all" to stock up and if you quit shooting "they" have won.
     
  8. Double_J

    Double_J Member

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    I bought a couple of boxes of ammo last September/October to replace some old carry ammo I had. Even then I was not seeing that good of prices nor selection at my local gun store. Right now my local Walmart and local gun stores have almost ZERO stock on ammo, outside of some exotic large caliber ammo i.e. 7mm Rem. Mag, .338 Mag, .300 Mag, etc. When they do get ammo in even if they limit sales to three boxes per person it still gets wiped out. One clerk at Walmart told me that a family of 5 would come in and wipe out the entire stock order of handgun ammo. I can't compete against that as they have the numbers to buy all of it up at one time.

    I know everyone says to "stock up" and if you didn't "stock up" it is your own fault. Right now I have 6 co-workers who are considering buying their first guns. What do I tell them to do about ammo? Oh, you should have bought some last year/5 years ago/whenever? I told them if they see some buy it. I warned them that it has been a bubble and prices are out of control. This bubble will pop, but we need to watch how we handle the new person coming into our ranks, as they don't know what normal prices are. We need to also be more empathetic to their plight and attempt to help them when we can. We are a LARGE community, and it does not help us to fight amongst ourselves. We can be our own worst enemy, even more so than those who wish to take it all away from us.
     
  9. Peter Kuykendall

    Peter Kuykendall Member

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    Occasional good deals to be had

    Over the last few months I've bought thousands of rounds at what is nowadays considered good prices (e.g. 32 cents / round for .223, 6 cents / round for .22LR, 34 cents / round for 7.62 x 39). It can be done with the help of some online tools, but you have to check often and strike quickly because the good deals sell out within minutes.

    I've had good luck using gunbot and gun deals. Some vendors will be out of stock but will let you backorder and / or set up for email notification when it comes back into stock. You can have it send an email to a service that converts it to a text message which immediately arrives at your cell phone.

    After a few trips to my local Wal-Mart, sporting goods stores, and gun shops that all came up dry, I just focused on mail order purchases. It's worked out very well.

    I did some research on worldwide ammo production and consumption in order to try to figure out how long this shortage will last (link). Sadly I think we are in for a long run of high prices & low supply, which is why I'm buying it sooner rather than later. The political trend in the US is clear, so the tax / import restrictions / purchase restriction outlook is gloomy going forward IMO.
     
  10. Sapper771

    Sapper771 Member

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    I am thankful to have a LGS that has plenty of reasonably priced ammo right now. So , if I was to stop buying ammo for a month, it would not help anyone but it would hurt me.

    Back in 2008, I would travel up to 125 miles away in search for ammo. I had more success than failure. These travels gave me a chance to visit new gun shops and extend my "network". I do/did not rely on Walmart for ammo.
     
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2013
  11. breakingcontact

    breakingcontact Member

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    Retweet.
     
  12. danez71

    danez71 Member

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    Huge difference.

    Generally speaking, we Americans cant go a month with out gas. There is a very high minimum rate of consumption of gas that is needed to keep this country running.

    Conversely, there is a very low rate of minimum consumption of ammo needed to keep this country running for a month.
     
  13. Killian

    Killian Member

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    200 boxes, which I used as an example, was an over exaggeration. My point is that when I go to Walmart I usually find one overworked person who is handling ten different things. Cash register, phone, background check, stocking, price changing and rearranging things. IF they aren't in another department mixing paint or getting toys off the shelf 3 aisles over from sporting goods. I often--no, make that always--have to go search down the person working in sporting goods. Your Walmart may vary.

    Ammunition comes in infrequently at Walmart. I have never seen a list that shows the next day's order. I'll ask about that on my next visit, but I do not believe that is standard here. When ammunition does come in though, typically it comes in a case, which I have been told is how managers in sporting goods order the ammo. Whether they receive an entire case or not is subject to what the ammo company sends them. Since they usually order multiple calibers on a single order, a lot of time these all arrive on the same day, or within one day, of each other. So an order to Federal may come in with 3 cases of 9mm, .3 cases of .40 and 3 cases of .45 and whatever other rounds were ordered as part of the same shipment. Then there may not be another arrival for many many days, or weeks, from another company. So when this order comes in on it's pallet, or multiple pallets but arriving on the same day, then the ammo may be stocked by the night crew, or left for the morning people to stock. I've seen it done both ways. Some of it may be placed in the gun room.......because you do NOT want to leave boxes of ammo sitting on the back loading dock unattended. Too much employee pilferage. Too much of a temptation right now.

    IF it is left for the morning crew to stock behind the sporting goods desk, then it will be a matter of when they choose to stock it. Most of the time it is put out when they get there. But if the sporting goods person is called away, or they are get busy with something else, it is not unheard of for them to leave the ammo sitting there for half a day or longer. It really does depend on how busy they are.

    In prior years, I know for a fact it was not uncommon for ammunition to remain in the gun room. Why? Well if the spot on your shelf for .45ACP was full, and you had more boxes, you would leave them in the gun room. This is how ammunition would get "lost". It would get buried under some other items, like other ammo shipments, or boxed rifles and shotguns, and would be found later when the employee unburied it and said, "Oh...I didn't know I had these." Likewise, if the ammo was placed in your gun room overnight to keep it from being stolen, then you might not know you have ammo until you either look in the gun room, or check on some list to see if you had any arrive. Again it might be hours, or a couple of days if you have no reason to go to the gun room. This seems unlikely now with all the demand. In prior years, I know it happened though.

    Don't misunderstand me. I do not believe Walmart employees are failing to put out ammuntion. I believe they do so when they have time. I'm firmly in the camp that believes NO ammo is coming into the stores right now. Companies are on backorder just trying to fill the internet orders they received in Jan/Feb. They will be til October, some of the sights are saying, before those companies catch up with already existing purchases. What little they send out to stores is just a token effort to keep their products on the shelves and as a sop to Walmart so they'll get off their backs.

    What I do think is false though is the idea that a small group is coming every day to Walmart and purchasing the ammo. Ammo isn't even arriving every day. So if these guys are standing around doing that, or coming in to check the list every day, then they aren't scoring ammo every single day, because ammo doesn't come in every single day. When ammo does arrive, it usually arrives in 3 or 4 cases, maybe 7 or 8, it all depends on how much they ordered. If two or three companies ordered from--Federal, Remington, Winchester for example--all happen to arrive on the same day, then you might have 30 or 40 cases, or more, of ammo arriving all at once. Those 5 guys you used as an example are limited to 3 boxes of whatever type. I'm having a tough time figuring how it is that they--by themselves--are managing to buy up the 15 boxes of ammo per day (5 guys x3 boxes) and totally denuding the shelves of ammo of all calibers. They might make a dent in a 1000 round case of one caliber, but there would still be some left over even then.

    The truth is that other "average Joes" are coming in to buy their three boxes of ammo and by the time 15 or 20 of them come thru--then 3 cases of ammo is gone. 20 times 3...60 boxes. 3000 rounds. 1000 round case. So 3 cases gone. That's all it would take. The first 20 people. If only one or two cases come in, then only 10 people.

    Really...there's no big mystery here and no conspiracy of ammo flippers. It's just a bunch of people--average folk--decided that all of them needed ammo in large quantities all at the same time.
     
  14. Shanghai McCoy

    Shanghai McCoy Member

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    What he said...:rolleyes:
     
  15. fanchisimo

    fanchisimo Member

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    Not even close. Liberal would be wanting an authority to get involved to force wealth redistribution. What I'm spouting is for people to help people VOLUNTARILY. It's more like charity. For instance, when a natural crisis happens, some people horde, yes, but you also often see people helping absolute strangers without someone making them. That is what I want.

    Let's use your numbers at walmart. Overall you said 10 people get ammo while 20 others get nothing. Since Walmart has a three box limit that would mean there were 30 boxes available. So if those ten people abstained and only grabbed one box, as well as the ones behind them, everybody would get ammo. I agree it's unrealistic that 29 people would use that restraint to make sure everybody got some, but that kind of charity would be nice as long as it's not forced as in wealth redistribution. Then it's not charity at all.
     
  16. greenmtnguy

    greenmtnguy Member

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    Heck, at this point I'd be happy to score a few hundred primers in any of my local gun shops - or a brick or two of 22LR.
     
  17. Plan2Live

    Plan2Live Member

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    The ammo is flowing into the local Wally World but the management and employees have been playing games with it. On the whole, they are getting tired of the parade of people asking for ammo that isn't available.

    I went by the Garner's Ferry Walmart one night just before 10pm, nothing on the shelf nothing behind the counter. This store will not sell between 10pm and 6am. I returned the next morning around 5:50am and saw an unopened case of .38 and an empty case (8 boxes) of 555 Winchester .22. When I located a "manager" I was told I couldn't buy before 7:00 so I waited. When the sporting goods person finally showed up I asked about the empty box of .22 and was told that the night crew must have bought it. I asked "before 7?" No reply.

    Yesterday the three stores I hit had a scattering of PPC (or PPU??) 380 and 9mm. Today one store had nothing, one had Federal 9mm and Winchester 45 and I didn't hit the other one due to laziness and inclimate weather. Another ammo stalker I have connected with reported the two stores he hit about 30 minutes away from me had .22 bulk packs, 9mm, 40 and 45 caliber and no one in line.

    At one WM I watched about 20 boxes of Tulammo 7.62X39 sit on the shelf for a week then disappear in one day.

    So it is out there and it doesn't always fly off the shelves. You just have to be consistent, persistent and patient.
     
  18. joeschmoe

    joeschmoe Member

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    No. Proportionately they are the same. There is a much larger industry to supply gas. Those of us who live in small towns often go a month between fill ups, while avid shooters must buy ammo every month to keep up with their needs.

    The point being that a percentage of the buyers boycotting purchases does not reduce prices. This is a temporary shortage. Supplies have been getting tight for years, prices have been climbing while more new gun owners join the market. This was inevitable. Many of us saw these factors coming years in advance.
     
  19. 45_auto

    45_auto Member

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    Store employees around here buy all the common calibers (.22, 9mm, 223, etc) for themselves and their buddies before it ever makes it to the shelf.
     
  20. Peter Kuykendall

    Peter Kuykendall Member

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    Not temporary

    There isn't a shortage of ammo. There is a shortage of *cheap* ammo. It's the same with Ferraris. Unlike Ferraris, you can occasionally score ammo at well under market price, enough to fill your stock.

    I don't see ammo prices declining much over the long term. There are a number of factors driving that, most of which I have already linked to. Yes the political situation in the US is driving up US civilian demand at the moment. But that has exactly nothing to do with the *world wide* shortage of ammo in large calibers, including tank rounds. For example, the Indian army's recent disclosure that it would run dry of many types of ammo, mostly heavy, after just 3 days of a shooting war illustrates the component shortages that are a big part of it. The world wide drastic production capacity decline over the last 70 years limits supply. The endless printing of fiat currency raises price, as measured in fiat currency. The majority of the component supply chain coming from single vendors and / or unfriendly countries, all contribute to supply risk. Some of those risks prevent the construction of more production capacity, so it persists.

    Since I live in the Kolorado Soviet I have to buy enough mags to last the rest of my life by July 1. Enough for the rest of my life. Consider that for a moment in the supply / demand climate. The only rational response is to buy now, while you can.

    I'm under no illusions that the US political forces going forward are going to ease off. Quite the contrary. The gun grabbers are politically smart and relentless and utterly without scruples. You can bet they have a whole package of new restrictions waiting to go after the next massacre. They will make it hard to buy ammo in many ways, via taxes, import limits, purchase limits, ownership limits, prohibitions against online purchases, special licenses, background checks, you name it, they will dream it up and push it. All of these will stimulate more buying while it's still relatively cheap. The Republicans are utterly unable to stop anything that the Democrats do. The Democrats know this and are swinging for the fences while they have the Republicans on their backs. The train is rolling straight towards us. You can buy ammo now or wait and wish you did. Just my $0.02 anyway.
     
  21. No4Mk1*

    No4Mk1* Member

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    The best way to help end this is to SELL ammo. I sold off $3000 worth in Feb and am considering selling off a few thousand more in an upcoming Proxibid auction in April. Until people willing to pay $70 for a brick of .22 run out of money this will continue. I may try to help them lose some more money...
     
  22. SharpsDressedMan

    SharpsDressedMan member

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    ^^^^That would work. One does not HAVE to buy anything that they consider overpriced, but many will.
     
  23. jim243

    jim243 Member

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    Not sure how I can help on this, I haven't bought ammo in 6 years, only shoot my own reloads, so it wasn't me that caused the shortages.

    Jim
     
  24. bri

    bri Member

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    I visit the Walmart by my office once a week and have come away with ammo each and every time. Typically there's no 9mm or 223 but I've scored some steel case 45acp and 7.62x39. Usually grab some 30-30 or 30-06 and I'm on my way.

    A broader caliber footprint, conservative use and patience got me though '08 just fine and will get me through the current situation as well.
     
  25. ZVP

    ZVP Member

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    How could the ammo manufacturers not know this was coming?

    Same thing happened when Obama got elected. DUH do you suppose there would be another run on guns and ammo with his reelection?
    It;s beyond me how ammo manufacturere could "play so dumb" amd then just make a killing on our wallets.
    I'm not being synical I just don't like being screwed!
    We are being screwed.
    THey wanted to run prices up and to sell all available stores for profit and they did it.
    It was a pure set-up.
    ZVP
     
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