Stop Buying Ammo For a Month...

Status
Not open for further replies.
Wow. I just hope ya'll exert this kind of energy on your legislators. 2 hours before the doors open and whatnot :rolleyes:. Instead of wasting your time in line waiting for something that will eventually come available, donate the amount you could have earned in wages to the NRA, and then spend the remainder of that downtime hassling your reps. That's how we deal with the problem, instead of avoiding it.

My strategy (apparently :eek:) was to get guns in all sorts of calibers so there's always something available for me to stock up on (8x56R and 7.5 Swiss, presently). Oh, and I'll stop buying ammo as soon as you do...;)

TCB
 
If you can find an AK-74 you can buy ammo for it at pre-panic prices. I have to make myself NOT buy anymore when I see all the assinine prices people are paying for .223 and 7.62x39 and my little '74 has enough to last through 2 more Democratic presidents.
 
jrdolall: That's a good plan.
Maybe no future tragic events will cause our DC Politburo to place large tariffs on imported ammo.

Their friends in the Kremlin would probably call the White House to stop tariffs or import bans.
 
Your premise that the SHORTAGE is being maintained by a small number of people is centered around Walmart availability of ammo.
To be accurate, what I really said was that there is a "small but highly motivated group of people" who are keeping the shortage going. I used the Wal-Mart example to back up the claim, but obviously it takes more than just empty shelves at Wal-Mart to keep the shortage alive.
The truth is that HUGE numbers of people are keeping ammo out of general circulation.
Well, I'd be interested to see any information you have on the number of people who are keeping ammo out of general circulation.

It's certainly possible that "HUGE numbers" are involved, but in my area it's not requiring huge numbers too keep the retailer shelves empty. It's only taking a handful of folks.
This process is keeping ammunition from general distribution to Walmart and others because the ammunition produced is being sent to people who already paid for it.
As far as I can tell, Wal-Mart is still getting reasonable amounts of ammunition--and that's what's being reported by other posters about their local Wal-Marts. The problem is less what they are (or aren't getting) and more that because the shelves have been cleaned by increased demand, it's now much easier for a relatively small number of buyers to KEEP them empty.

I'm not going to quote any more of your post because it seems you're either not understanding my point or you're intentionally avoiding it.

The example I gave at Wal-Mart illustrates how it's possible for a small number of people to maintain the shortage once it has been firmly established. I'm not trying to claim that the shortage is exclusively about what's happening at Wal-Mart, nor am I trying to kid anyone or blame anyone.

What I am saying is that now that the shortage is in full swing, it doesn't take NEARLY as much demand to keep it going as it did to bring it on. That's because in order to establish the shortage, existing stocks at manufacturers, retailers and distributors had to be exhausted and the supply chain had to be emptied. That took some doing. But now that all of that has been accomplished, the shortage can be maintained with far less demand.

In other words, it definitely took more than a handful of people to clean the shelves at the local Wal-Mart, but it's only taking a handful of them to keep the shelves empty now.

And that means that until those folks stop keeping the shelves clean, they will stay clean, even if you and I and a bunch of our friends stop buying ammunition for a month--which is what this thread is about.
 
1. There are more like 150,000 federal LEOs who would be the recipients of this ammunition in the form of training and issue ammunition.
2. The contract is not a single year contract, it is a 4-5 year contract.
3. The contract is not an actual order, it is an option contract. That is, it gives the DHS to right to purchase UP TO the stated amount over 4-5 years.

Even if you assume the full 1.6Billion is purchased (even though that's only the top limit amount), it still only works out to about 2100 rounds per federal agent per year. It's not at all an unreasonable amount given their requirements.That's not correct. It's not the primary reason, nor is the procurement evidence of conspiracy, but clearly the government, both military and LE use a lot of ammunition. That usage contributes to the overall demand level, and clearly plays a part in the current situation.

I think your numbers are a bit off. Here is a quote from a member of congress that puts the number of armed officers at between 65,000 and 70,000.


"If you take the number of agencies that will be using this ammunition – CBP, Citizenship and Immigration Services, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), ICE, the U.S. Secret Service, Transportation Security Administration, the DHS police force, and all the guards that protect the various buildings these agencies are housed in, and spread that out over 5 years, you start to see that 450 million rounds really isn’t that large of an order. Especially considering it is used for training purposes like firing range and live fire exercises, on-the-job use (though that is very limited), and to shore up their supplies. In fact, there are 65,000 – 70,000 law enforcement personnel at DHS who would be covered under this IDIQ ammunition contract. If DHS were to purchase all 450 million rounds over 5 years, then that would equate to only about 1,384 rounds of ammo per year per law enforcement personnel (or about 155 rounds per month (about 10 magazines worth of ammo per month) or 3-4 rounds per day) assuming the lower estimate of only 65,000 law enforcement personnel at DHS. Considering those agents go through training exercises several times per year, that is not a lot of ammunition."

http://westmoreland.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=642&Itemid=372

What is really interesting is that this letter was written in response to people upset and questioning the DHS stating their desire to acquire 450 million rounds of ammo in 2012. Now, the number is 1.6 billion. This brings the number of rounds per agent to just under 5,000 per year assuming one big buy of 1.6 billion rounds, or, assuming 15 round magazines, that equals around 27 magazines per month. I have a hard time believing that very many of the agents actually train that month, and my feeling on that is based on info from my neighbor, who is a firearms training officer with one of the DHS agencies.

So, is the 1.6 billion on top of the 450 million from last year, for a total of 2.05 billion rounds? If so, that changes the numbers even more.

Regardless of whether or not it is all bought at one time or not, I suspect that ammo company out-put to civilians will be affected by the prospect of coming up with the 1.6 billion rounds, whether it is at once or spread out over 5 years.


As for the idea of not buying ammo for a month, the idea is ridiculous. All it would do is ensure a buying frenzy a month from now and another ammo shortage.
 
It's certainly possible that "HUGE numbers" are involved, but in my area it's not requiring huge numbers too keep the retailer shelves empty. It's only taking a handful of folks.As far as I can tell, Wal-Mart is still getting reasonable amounts of ammunition--and that's what's being reported by other posters about their local Wal-Marts. The problem is less what they are (or aren't getting) and more that because the shelves have been cleaned by increased demand, it's now much easier for a relatively small number of buyers to KEEP them empty.

I'm not going to quote any more of your post because it seems you're either not understanding my point or you're intentionally avoiding it.

In other words, it definitely took more than a handful of people to clean the shelves at the local Wal-Mart, but it's only taking a handful of them to keep the shelves empty now.

And that means that until those folks stop keeping the shelves clean, they will stay clean, even if you and I and a bunch of our friends stop buying ammunition for a month--which is what this thread is about.

Considering that most of my post invalidates your arguments and points out the true cause of what is presently occurring, I'd be surprised if you did repeat my points of argument.

As to your point, I think I understood it just fine. I don't think it's factual. That's all.

I'll repeat my point again since you seem to have missed it also. A small number of people are NOT keeping Walmart shelves out of stock. In December thousands, if not millions, of people ordered ammunition from various vendors around the Internet and the United States. In amounts far vaster than has been seen before. Perhaps this also coincided with an increased govt purchase of ammunition as well. This increase in demand has been so large that it has led to middle men vendors of ammunition refusing any more backorders because the already existing demand is occupying all current production to fill it. Thus you see vendors saying "no longer accepting back orders".

Ammo companies are playing "catch up" right now to get all the ammo that was ordered in December supplied to the people who bought it. This process, according to the estimated times of deliveries supplied by middle men sellers at various firearms accessory dealers (pick your favorite one) may be months, or the latter part of this year, according to information supplied on their various websites, before they receive the ammo they have ordered to be shipped to their customers. This is what their supplier (Federal, Remington, CCI..whoever) is telling them and they are putting this on their website.

So there are millions of people buying ammunition right now through the back order process. The ammunition that they have already paid for is currently being produced and shipped to them. This sudden massive demand is what is causing a shortage.

People buying ammunition at Walmart are not the problem. They are not "maintaining a shortage". If everyone stopped buying ammunition at Walmart today, there would be ammunition on the shelves at Walmart. This would not mean that all demand and supply had been met. This demand will not be met until all back orders are filled. The people buying ammo at Walmart are the people who did not order thru the online internet ammunition sites. Their demand has only marginally--minimally--been satisfied by the meager supply of ammunition dribbling into Walmart from ammunition makers. There are millions of Americans each buying 100's if not 1000's of rounds of ammunition now. It's a log jam. Same is if hurricane preppers rushed to a store all at once before a hurricane and bought batteries, milk, and generators. If there are 100 generators, then the 101st customer does not get one. Let's say the store uses its retail reputation and secures 5 additional generators for this store by twisting the arms of their generator suppliers for an emergency shipment even if the generator company does not have a surplus stock and can only produce a few per day. Can you then say that the 101st person is now creating the shortage by buying one of those 5 generators? No. The hurricane inspired demand is creating the shortage. The perception of need for a generator in the face of a hurricane is the causative agent.
(I chose generators as an example because in the aftermath of a hurricane they may also represent a dubious "need". Do people NEED generators after a hurricane? Debatable...in much the same way that "do people NEED ammo?" is debatable. Is the house that contained the generator even going to be left standing? Was buying one "wasted"? [Comparable to buying ammo you hoard but never shoot.]How effective is a generator in a place with no gasoline or available oil? How long would it last at persevering food even in the best of situation? Applied to firearms, how often does someone NEED a gun? How much ammo is "enough"?)

And because I no longer trust people to make the obvious leap and substitute ammunition for generators, I'll spell this out too. If Walmart had 500 boxes of ammunition at their local store, and suddenly everyone in the United States (unlike hurricane demand, which is local in scope) demands ammo and locals buys those 500 boxes, can you now blame people who come in after to purchase the meager 5 boxes that come in? People who missed the boat when the 500 were bought up in the initial rush? I say, "No."

Why you are propagating this premise of "a few are the problem" is another point I'm curious about. If your goal is to try and convince people that no shortage exists...that's wrong. It exists until backorders are filled. Or you convince people to cancel their backorders. If your goal is just to convince people not to buy at Walmart so that YOU will be able to find ammo the next time you go in, then good luck with that. Cause I do not believe that is going to happen until the perceived need is met, either thru reduced demand or by ammo companies increasing production. If you want to stop the shortage, then focus on convincing people to cancel their backorders. Blaming people who didn't get there first to buy their "generator" is divisive, and I feel factually incorrect to the situation at hand.

We are all to blame, and none of us are to blame, for the current situation. This is the stampede. You either run with the herd, or you get crushed by its passage. Or you find an island, or make one for yourself--but that's less dramatic as imagery.

So good luck, cause in my opinion we are still looking at months if not sometime next year before we see those nice packed Walmart shelves again.
 
The last time I bought any ammo was last November and it was, believe it or not, .22LR that was on sale. No problem here with me not buying any ammo for a month, or two, or three...

So please just let me know when the ammo starts showing up in the stores so I can start buying again.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top