Stopping Power...is this correct?

[orangeninja]

In Today's Most Popular Calibers
380Auto/90gr JHP
1050fps
70%
9mm+P/115gr JHP
1350fps
91%
38Spl+P/110gr JHP
1250fps
83%
40S&W/135gr JHP
1300fps
96%
10mm/150gr JHP
1300fps
90%
45ACP +P/185gr JHP
1150fps
92%

1996 By Evan Marshall & Ed Sanow

info: by Corbon

 

[P95Carry]

I wouldn't contest it - any more than I would accept it as ''gospel''!! It doesn't actually lay out a base line .... like '' one shot stop'' etc .. is it related to speed of incapacity? Hard to know. Is it based on supposed (infamous!) ''energy dump'' ?.

Shot placement will as always matter more than pure cal .. a .380 in the right place will almost certainly out-perform a badly placed 40mm.

Subjective ... objective?? How long is a piece of cord??

I resume my seat on the sidelines .. and await the input!

 

[DigMe]

I consider that info worthless.

brad cook

 

[gbelleh]

The data listed probably does accurately reflect Marshall & Sanow's claims, but...

I don't know if Marshall & Sanow can ever be considered "correct" or not. What is much more important than dubious stopping power study results is the shooter's ability to control his/her chosen weapon.

IMO, several quick rounds to COM with a .380, always beats a miss or peripheral hit with a .40 or .45. Pick your weapon and practice, practice, practice.

 

[cratz2]

I think all the percentages seem a bit high, but when comparing the various cartridges, that seems about right.

My personal feelings are that the 380 is below anything else on the list. 40, 45 and 10mm are probably tops with the 9mm just below overall but for the average citizen that is going to probably put one to five rounds in a torso from less than 7 feet, I think the 9, 40, 45 and 10 are pretty much interchangable. Since most folks can shoot the 9 better and more quickly, it is what I usually suggest along with well-chosen carry ammo.

 

[7.62FullMetalJacket]

It is mathematical. I sincerely doubt that a .380 is a 70% stopper

 

[Preacherman]

That's also information relating to stops with one round. Anyone dumb enough to rely on one round to stop a determined, or drug-crazed, or drunk attacker is asking to get hurt. As another has said before me, "To hell with the Mozambique - I'm going for slide-lock!"

 

[Standing Wolf]

I think the list leaves out a trio of important factors: bullet placement, bullet placement, and bullet placement.

 

[c_yeager]

Considering the fact that EVERY profession that involves the possibility of combat is training their people to fire MULTIPLE rounds on target as fast as possible i think the whole "one shot stop" idea is kinda silly. Maybe their training is faulty. But, i put more stock in it than some made up statistics.

 

[Rico567]

As you can see, grasshopper, when you choose to walk down the path of stopping power you have chosen the Great Dismal Swamp of firearms discussion. You can find all sorts of theories and studies on this subject, going back to the late great Julian Hatcher (and probably beyond) gunning down cattle in the stockyards to determine this Holy Grail of where the rubber meets the road for shooters.

I caution you, as did Aristotle in the Ethics, that "-the many do not give the same account as the wise," and to do a lot of reading and study before you form any opinions on the subject.

My own opinions are as follows:

1) The laws of physics, all other considerations aside, are pretty imporant, but not exhaustive. The more mass you've got going down range, the better.

2) Velocity is very relative. A mass that expends its energy in the target is much more effective than one going at 4000 fps that drills a nice neat hole.

3) Bullet placement, as has been pointed out elsewhere, is a very important factor, but, once again, not totally exhaustive.

4) The greatest uncontrolled variable when a bullet meets a living organism is the organism itself- its size, state of arousal, etc. A target pumped full of adrenalin (or non-prescription pharmeceuticals) has been proven to react quite differently than under other circumstances.

5) the obvious point of considering this question in the first place implies the shooter behind the gun....which is technically not a component of stopping power at all, but not to my mind. The skill and determination of the shooter seem to me to be of critical importance.

These may seem obvious, and to lack a definitive conclusion; perhaps all it points out is that my opinions are not fully formed on this subject.....but I think it's obvious that I reject Cor-bon's information as simplistic.

 

[Ed]

If I remember correctly, these were taken from real shootings, The 40S&W had been out a very short time in 1996 when this was compiled. On another note you have close to 80 years of .45 ACP data and most with hardball. Now there are lots more records of shootings with 40 S&W and most police it seems have gone to it. Since the transition to 9mm and 40. there have been lots of changes in defensive ammo. Even in 45ACP but more shootings by LEO have been with these 2. That means that the Stop ratio should have gone up for 9mm and 40, but probably stayed stagnent for 45, 10mm etc. This also doesn't take into account shot placement. I would hazzard a guess that most people shot with a .380 were shot with a backup gun, with very inaccurate sights, hence poor shot placement. If most people carried full sized .380s the balistics and placement would be higher. So it is a rough estimate of what has happened. If I was doing something wrong and someone shot me with a .22 I would seriously consider stopping.

 

[Sean Smith]

Marshal & Sanow's "data" is BS.

http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?s=&threadid=50402&perpage=25&highlight=M&pagenumber=1

 

[OF]

I consider that info worthless.

It is beyond worthless. The fact that M&S's mumbo jumbo "data" is so widely quoted and used as criteria for ammunition selection has, undoubtably gotten people killed.

- Gabe

 

[LoneWulf]

Miss Cleo and a Oujia board have more credibility than those two clowns.

 

[Shmackey]

Trade in your 10mm for a 9mm and get that extra 1%...

 

[Chuck Dye]

There is no there, there...

M&S published Handgun Stopping Power about the time I first seriously considered terminal performance other than on deer. I though "Great! Real science, not marketing!" so I bought a copy. What a waste of money. Run your favorite search engine (don’t mention which one around here without donning Nomex first) and check out the critical reviews, especially

http://www.firearmstactical.com/marshall-sanow-discrepancies.htm

and

http://www.firearmstactical.com/marshall-sanow-statistical-analysis.htm

The book is a lovely production, and there are some engaging tales of actual shootings, although, given the quality of the science, I am leery of accepting even the anecdotes.

 

[L-Frame]

This is the very reason that I stay off the ammo sections of any website I'm reading. No matter what theories someone is espousing; Marshall, Hatcher, momentum, velocity, yada, yada, yada, you will always find many who are vehemently supporting and opposing both sides with everyone else siding to various degrees either way. For the vast majority of these people, not all, but most, it comes down to their gut instincts in terms of what makes sense to them, or they heard a friend or someone they respect take a certain side so they take it too.

Get a gun you enjoy shooting, is reliable, and can carry (if that is what you want) in a caliber of good reputation, (for me .38+ or up, but even that will start arguments), learn to use it properly and efficiently, get good hollowpoints for it (within each caliber there are hollowpoints with proven track records), and be comfortable with your choice. Proper training and regular practice, and a dead reliable weapon, are more important than whether you have a +p 9mm or a .45.

 

[stans]

These percentages cannot be disproven, it also cannot be proved. There are so many variables to be considered. Distance to target, angle of impact, clothing, mental state of the perp, physical condition of the perp, drugs. I really don't put too much faith in this stuff. I used to until I thought about it for a while. Best stopping power is going to be the gun/caliber that you can handle best and the ammo that is 100% reliable in that particular gun.

 

[OF]

No matter what theories someone is espousing; Marshall, Hatcher, momentum, velocity, yada, yada, yada, you will always find many who are vehemently supporting and opposing both sides with everyone else siding to various degrees either way.

Yeah but...just because there are people arguing on two sides of an issue doesn't mean they are both right. Read the material and decide for yourself, then if you make a statement based on your decision be prepared to back it up. The M&S people have never won an argument in their favor, that I have ever seen. Ever.

Proper training and regular practice, and a dead reliable weapon, are more important than whether you have a +p 9mm or a .45.

'Tis true. But we can still choose better ammunition when we have reliable data based on solid methodology. Why not carry good ammo? Sure it's not all that big a deal compared to the other facets of a good defensive platform, but it is something we have control over...unlike alot of the variables.

- Gabe

 

[L-Frame]

It also doesn't mean that both sides are wrong. I agree that we can read and research as much as we can to get the best ammo. But who do we read? Fackler? Hatcher? Sanow? Gun-Tests magazine? Chuck Taylor? Both sides not only disagree with the other's results, but with their methodologies, data, statistical validity. And it goes on and on. I see pieces in all of them that I think has some merit. Like I said, whether I load my .357 with 158's at 1000 fps or with 110's at 1400 fps, each with a good hollowpoint, (Sierra, etc), I feel perfectly comfortable with my decision, despite the fact that someone will undoubtedly say "too much mass, too little speed", or "hot, tiny bullets will not even penetrate a thick jacket", etc. There are plenty of rounds in each caliber category that has a good track record. Pick what you like to shoot best, based on who you want to believe, and you'll do OK, IMHO, as long as you and your gun do your respective jobs.

Dave

 

[Gary Brommeland]

Hey Guys!

At one time, I considered the Marshall-Sanow data to be gospel. In recent years their work has become known to industry professionals as pure, unadulterated bovine excrement.

I do not know of a single trainer that places ANY value on their statistics.

As always, shot placement and tactics are what win gunfights. Having said that, I have a definitive preference for a .45acp. (small bullets may expand, but big bullets do not shrink! )

 

[Kentucky Rifle]

HUMMmmmm
I would have thought the 10MM would have gotten a better score than 90%. Maybe not though.
I once had a friend who was buying a Ruger in .45 Colt. (He was the "Mountain Man" type.) Me: "Why don't you consider a .44 mag"? Him: "Boy--Those fast rounds zip through a body like it's made of butter. Now, .45 Long is DESTRUCTIVE". I wasn't prepared to argue at that particular time. (If you know what I mean.<shudder>)

KR

 

[Tim Burke]

Why the "statistics" are meaningless

Preacherman hinted at it when he said:

That's also information relating to stops with one round

And how did they get shootings with just one round? They discarded any shootings that required more than one hit. What do you do if you need to shoot someone, and after you shoot them they don't stop what they were doing that necessitated them being shot? You shoot them again!
But then that shooting never gets counted in the OSS "statistics." If you shoot them twice, and they still don't stop, not only is it not counted as two failures in the OSS "statistics," it isn't even counted as one failure.
So the only shootings that make it into the OSS database are those in which only one shot is fired. It's clear that if you limit your study to those shootings, your sample will be disproportionately made up of those shootings in which 1 shot was effective. If your sample is not representative, then the numbers will not be either. Their sample is so skewed, by design, if not by intention, that, IMO, rationally interpreting their numbers is impossible.

So, to answer the original question,

Stopping Power...is this correct?

No, it's not correct.

 

[Johnny Guest]

I think M&S have - - -

- - Pretty well been discredited. The thread cited above, from last September gives some good reasons.

I read a borrowed copy of the original edition of the M&S book when it was first released. I discussed it with a real, working, firearms examiner. He has extensive experience with two major forensics labs in the southwest. He is also an active member of AFTE, Association of Firearms and Toolmarks Examiners.

When M&S first began publishing their One Shot Stop "findings," and quoting anecdotes from various locales, some AFTE members asked for their raw data, to review it before inviting M or S to speak at a meeting. They categoriclly refused to share their information. Hardly a scientific attitude, huh? Then, when the first edition of the book hit the shelves, it was read critically by many of the examiners.

Interesting to see: Several of the firearms lab chiefs stated something like: M&S state such-and-such an incident happened (in Dallas, or Chicago, or New Orleans, or whereever.) "That shooting would have HAD to be handled by my lab, and I do not recall ANY situation even vaguely similar to what they quote." COULD something of the sort have happened? Well, sure. DID it happen when, where, and how M&S described? Well, no.

This, combined with the refusal to submit raw data for peer review, gives the lie to certain specifics they published. It also raises serious questions about the validity of ANY of their conclusions.

alduro, I suggest you check the links provided by Sean Smith and Huck Phinn above, and spend a little time reading each of them. Then go to the links THOSE links provide. If you trust ANY other sources, you'll see that some rather learned authorities question the scientific validity and veracity of M&S.

All of which being said, SOME of what they write is bound to be valid. What part of it can you trust, though?

Best,
Johnny

 

[Moparmike]

Shot placement will as always matter more than pure cal .. a .380 in the right place will almost certainly out-perform a badly placed 40mm.

Umm, just how bad does your shot placement have to be when you are shooting a 40mm? Even a miss by several feet would slow the perp down...

I am pretty sure that if I shoot a perp with a 40mm and miss by 3ft, the blast radius will still get him. However, that cant be said when using a .380.