I've been busy so I forgot about this discussion.
First off over a decade of war, the growth of law enforcement and private security firms all had the ammunition industry running at near capacity for close to 12 years. This left the industry more vulnerable to the succession of "runs" on ammunition that began a month before Obama's first election.
That 2008 run caused a shortage of ammo and in increase in ammo prices that has not returned to pre-Obama price levels and likely never will. It also was the first time there was a shortage of .22 ammo. This was because the temporary run caused a shortage of components and production lines were tied up.
There have been 3 other runs since then all causing shortages.
During this same time period there has been an unprecedented growth in the number of new shooters and increased demand for ammo in general.
While local law enforcement has seen some shrinkage since the recession of 2008 began (budget cuts, etc.) there has been a net increase in other areas. The Border Patrol for instance has more than quadrupled in size since 2004. The increased militarization of law enforcement has also meant an increase in expended ammo for training. The growth of prisons and prison guards both public and private continues. These things have been factors in keeping ammo production at or near capacity for over a decade.
A feature of the current wars has been the wide scale use of private contractors for everything from construction of barracks and kitchens, to protection for facilities, convoys and private protection of VIPs and others (these are not mall cops). Blackwater and similar outfits became household names over this period and continue to play a role internationally. Ammo there too.
Right now it is expected that "only" 10,000 or so troops will remain in Afghanistan for an unforeseeable future. As well as a good many contractors.
To your first point, it's not that simple. Ammunition manufactured in the United States is rarely sold or gifted overseas, because we don't manufacture the calibers necessary in any kind of quantity.
This is not accurate. The U.S. ammunition industry regularly produces and sells for the international market as does the firearms industry. This is not only for sporting cartridges but for military ammo as well. 9mm, 5.56x45, 7.62x51 and other rounds are widely used internationally.
All of these things and others had the industry running at close to near capacity for years now. The panic buying runs (maybe panic ain't the right word, buying sprees then) have caused the shortages, including of 22. But the industry was stretched before then.
tipoc