p35
Member
Has anyone noticed that, in the wake of the VT shootings, only the Usual Suspects are calling for more gun control? The actual decision makers are making it pretty clear that more gun control, new AWBs, etc. are not going to move an inch in Congress or most state legislatures. At worst, this latest incident will only slow down the national movement to "shall issue" CCW.
I think that the leadership of the national political parties has figured out that gun control is a losing issue. Both sides believe that the 1994 AWB cost the Democrats control of Congress, and it took Bush's total incompetence in Iraq to get it back. The last thing the Ds want is another twelve years in the minority.
Gun control advocates like to claim that they have 75% support from the public (not that you can believe any number they cite). It's not the breadth of support that counts, though- it's the depth. Most people who support gun control aren't motivated by it as an issue- they will vote, donate money, etc. based on other issues. Opponents, on the other hand, are motivated- support gun control and you get a whole bunch of people actively working for your defeat. Politicians are experts at figuring out messages like that.
Let's also recognize the role the NRA and similar organizations play. They have to keep the excitement level up to keep the donations coming in. It's how all these groups work. With yesterday's Supreme Court ruling on abortion, for example, the pro side is already generating a wave of letters saying "we need money or abortion will be outlawed" while the anti side is generating a similar wave saying "we need money to push for our next victory". The NRA will never send out a letter saying "things are OK and we can relax for a while" because that won't generate donations. They will always tell you that radical gun control is just around the corner and only being stopped by their efforts.
As a practical matter, though, the Brady Bill was the high point of gun control in this country. While we have to be vigilant, the political will for gun control is gone. We won.
I think that the leadership of the national political parties has figured out that gun control is a losing issue. Both sides believe that the 1994 AWB cost the Democrats control of Congress, and it took Bush's total incompetence in Iraq to get it back. The last thing the Ds want is another twelve years in the minority.
Gun control advocates like to claim that they have 75% support from the public (not that you can believe any number they cite). It's not the breadth of support that counts, though- it's the depth. Most people who support gun control aren't motivated by it as an issue- they will vote, donate money, etc. based on other issues. Opponents, on the other hand, are motivated- support gun control and you get a whole bunch of people actively working for your defeat. Politicians are experts at figuring out messages like that.
Let's also recognize the role the NRA and similar organizations play. They have to keep the excitement level up to keep the donations coming in. It's how all these groups work. With yesterday's Supreme Court ruling on abortion, for example, the pro side is already generating a wave of letters saying "we need money or abortion will be outlawed" while the anti side is generating a similar wave saying "we need money to push for our next victory". The NRA will never send out a letter saying "things are OK and we can relax for a while" because that won't generate donations. They will always tell you that radical gun control is just around the corner and only being stopped by their efforts.
As a practical matter, though, the Brady Bill was the high point of gun control in this country. While we have to be vigilant, the political will for gun control is gone. We won.