underestimating the bg

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Lots of good points being discussed in this thread.

As for the study on the threat LEO's face, that scarcely applies to the CC'er. The LEO's are known to be armed and a threat to that criminial, so they're immediately targeted.

It is very true that we should never under estimate our opponent. That said, the criminal who goes after an armed citizen has made exactly that mistake, and that gives us the initial advantage. Where it goes from there, however, is wholly dependent on circumstances and our response.

I would never assume that an attacker has inferior skills or eqiupment. That would be foolish, to say the least. But what I'm counting on is reaction time. If the BG wanted me dead, he'd most likely have shot or stabbed me from behind before I ever had a chance to defend myself. If he's threatening me with a gun, he wants something else. Like my money. If he's standing back a bit and I'm the one "going for my wallet", I'll produce my weapon instead, and even the most alert and quickest people on the planet are unlikely to be able to react in less time than I can get off a shot once he realizes it's not a wallet in my hand.

In the other robbery instance I can think of, the BG is holding the weapon at contact distance while he attempts to get the goods. In this case, I'll not be going for my weapon, at least not initially. The reaction time still comes into play, but in this instance, it's him not being able to dodge my moves, whether that may be grappling/disarmament, or striking a blow to knock him down/disorient him, so I can make my next calculated move.

I think the key to successful defense is that beyond the inital encounter, we become proactive, rather than reactive. Keep the advantage you have.
 
If they are actually planning on shooting you, they shouldn't be within reaching distance. That is, unless you just so happen to get the hypothetical moron of criminals.

Not saying it would be easy, and it would definitely have loads of risk involved, but if they're pressing their gun against you, I'd imagine it wouldn't be a bad idea to grab their hand and get that thing pointed away from you if you're planning on resisting. And maybe you could drop the mag, prevent the gun from cycling fully, or cover the ejection port so it jams. Then if they let a shot off, at least both of you are wrestling over a jammed piece of metal while you use your other hand to draw your non jammed piece.

That should be in the Marine Corps Rules for Gunfighting... never get withing grasping distance of someone you might need to shoot.
 
People should practice as much as they can. Luckily I find shooting fun so it's not much of an inconvenience. After that, I don't think it really matters whether or not you underestimate the bad guy. All I know is, when I go to the range, where there are people who do practice (and I know that because they are practicing), many can barely keep it on the paper - and some can't even do that. I think if you work on good technique and getting it into muscle memory, you'll be ahead of most guys who do practice, let alone some heroin addict who needs money for a fix.

I have known cops who almost never practice, so I'm not surprised to hear that some bad guys practice more. I'm sure some criminals do practice frequently and can hit what they aim at, but I doubt that's normal.

I still think that your average petty thief would do well to hit the ground with his hat, like the aspiring petty theives at the local range with their sideways (3:00) hold, but that's not going to stop me from going to the range as often as I can, and I don't let my assumptions about what they do influence my preparation.

Ther is no way anyone should be able to walk up to you and put a gun to your back. I think that's obvious, but I wanted to say it anyway.
 
but that's not going to stop me from going to the range as often as I can, and I don't let my assumptions about what they do influence my preparation.

if you heard that criminals were adjusting there tactics you wouldn't prepare for that contingency? years ago people didn't worry about home invasion by multiple assailants but criminals changed their s&t to better their outcome of success.

Ther is no way anyone should be able to walk up to you and put a gun to your back. I think that's obvious, but I wanted to say it anyway.

so your constantly aware? you've never been caught off guard, surprised? do you ever let anyone walk past you or walk behind you? there is a huge difference between what someone should be able to do and what they can do.
 
This is an extremely well documented subject, the whole criminals don't practice with guns thing, I remember reading an academic study that compared police practice and actual violent encounteres to those documented and reported by criminals

Some criminals do, and other criminals don't. Some are good shots, and others aren't so good. The study I believe you're referring to concerns criminals who deliberately attempt to assassinate LEOs, which implies that they're probably more experienced and better trained than the average criminal. While we should prepare to face anything, we should not visualize the worst case so much that we begin to doubt ourselves.

Gist was this, career criminals had 3-4 times the violent encounters than the cops they went against, and spent more time practicing with their weapon than the cops, though is was often "informal" target practice (plinking)

Oh, and then often out shot the cops, imagine that.

With the exception of some highly skilled cops, that's not hard to imagine, nor is it particularly intimidating (with all due respect, most police officers don't train that much with their guns because they usually won't have to use them all that often). I don't think that's overconfidence on my part, as I train as if I would have to face myself, and the better I get the more motivated I become to improve. If I have the misfortune of facing somebody who is better than me or has luck on his side, then so be it, but I always fight to win (if I'm forced to fight).

My point is, that there are different levels and involvement, but if you have the misfortune to run into a serious threat, they will have ALL the advantages, because they establish the force of violence and continue to control the situation, and they have the familiarity with the situation because it is a job to them.

True enough, but it's not the common case, which is closer to the following:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApgSY1qSHf8

I very much agree with the OP, in that too many of us take these possibilities for granted.

These ideas might even be true MOST of the time. This doesn't mean it's a good idea to face someone who is trying to kill you and assume that they are incompetent. If we face bad guys, we should assume that they are telekinetic ninjas with special powers and lots of friends. If this turns out to be generous, at least you are alive to feel stupid.

I understand the sentiment, but I still don't see what difference it really makes, aside from motivating one to train well and avoid conflict whenever possible. Whatever the competence of the assailants might be, I'll try to put them down as quickly as I can, regardless. It's not as though I'm going to take my time and mess around during a gunfight just because I think some crooks can't shoot straight. :scrutiny:

It is very true that we should never under estimate our opponent. That said, the criminal who goes after an armed citizen has made exactly that mistake, and that gives us the initial advantage. Where it goes from there, however, is wholly dependent on circumstances and our response.

I would never assume that an attacker has inferior skills or eqiupment. That would be foolish, to say the least. But what I'm counting on is reaction time. If the BG wanted me dead, he'd most likely have shot or stabbed me from behind before I ever had a chance to defend myself. If he's threatening me with a gun, he wants something else. Like my money. If he's standing back a bit and I'm the one "going for my wallet", I'll produce my weapon instead, and even the most alert and quickest people on the planet are unlikely to be able to react in less time than I can get off a shot once he realizes it's not a wallet in my hand.

Exactly, and keep firing until the threat is neutralized, giving him as little chance as possible of returning fire.

By the way, while the following depiction of an attempted robbery is fictional and extremely unrealistic in some ways, I thought it would be amusing for those who haven't seen it yet:

http://video.yahoo.com/watch/3662419/10081463

I think the key to successful defense is that beyond the inital encounter, we become proactive, rather than reactive. Keep the advantage you have.

Agreed. Once you get to the point at which combat is necessary for your safety and survival, take the initiative and be aggressive--"There's no defense like a good offense" and "Fortes fortuna adiuvat" ("Fortune favors the bold") and all that.
 
While we should prepare to face anything, we should not visualize the worst case so much that we begin to doubt ourselves.

i agree, i feel that one should train to the point where they have as close to total confidence in their ability as possible.

I understand the sentiment, but I still don't see what difference it really makes, aside from motivating one to train well and avoid conflict whenever possible.

that's the point, there are many who feel that they don't have to train and practice because they view the bg as an inferior adversary. many don't practice shooting while moving or multiple target scenarios or failure drills. they feel like the occasional weekend out plinking puts them at a higher skill level than the mildly retarded bg who can't aim or shoot and has a junk gun that they expect to face.
 
I agree with the theme on gun boards of criminals being completely inept.

Rule #1 : NEVER underestimate your opponent.

If some guy breaks into your house you better act like he is Jerry Miculek's evil twin.
 
More often than not, when you underestimate someone it's because you're over confident. Reign it in.......
 
"i wonder if they tell themselves these things to build up confidence that meager training and practice will be plenty "

Now who is underestimating who?
 
Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.

You might get a moron criminal who's threatening you with a pistol with a partially open breech and a missing magazine.

You might get a criminal who starts shooting before saying a word and hits you in the vitals before you are even aware you're in a gunfight.

Prepare for the latter so he won't be hurting anyone else even if you're already screwed. Being able to draw quickly and dump a full magazine into a pie plate at 25 yards couldn't possibly be a negative skill set when some psychopath decides to act like a psychopath.

Neither of those extremes are the most likely scenario... that's why they are extremes. It'll likely be somewhere in the middle... not a mentally handicapped criminal, but not an expert assassin either. If you've trained enough to have even odds with the assassin though, the moron doesn't stand a chance.
 
Yes, criminals may not be stupid, a poor shot, or carry a crappy gun, but the criminal seldom looks for a fight. Instead, he selects his victim thinking he can overpower him/her rapidly and accomplish his goal of stealing, raping or murdering. When confronted by an armed victim the criminal's paradigm shifts, i.e. an armed victim was not part of his plan. Moreover, the victim will be predisposed to fight for her life, while the criminal just wanted to snatch a purse.
 
i'm not a felon but i can't remember the last time i was carded for buying ammo...even at walmart. i'm sure the stores i frequent aren't the only ones who do this so it's probably safe to say that they buy it at places where they aren't checked for prior felonies.
I don't know where you live, but I have bought ammo all over the place, online, in stores in stores I have never been to before, at Walmart etc, never once have I been asked even for an ID let alone "carded". In fact this is the first time I have heard of this. I am sure it probably is rare, and I obviously am ignorant of many things this included. Aren't we all? You learn something new every day for sure. I just did.
 
I don't know where you live, but I have bought ammo all over the place, online, in stores in stores I have never been to before, at Walmart etc, never once have I been asked even for an ID let alone "carded". In fact this is the first time I have heard of this. I am sure it probably is rare, and I obviously am ignorant of many things this included. Aren't we all? You learn something new every day for sure. I just did.

at wal-mart my id was checked to make sure i was 21 or over to buy handgun ammo, no other time have i been checked anywhere when i buy ammo.
 
Shout me down if you want, and sorry for off topic post but I have had some experiences to tell you guys about. In my life I have been involved in exactly one robbery, one mugging and one home intrusion. Trust me when I tell you as much as I love guns, it wouldn't have mattered what firearm I had (co-incidentaly I was un-armed in the mugging and home intrusion) in any of these situations because it would have been useless. I feel safer with one, but in some cases it makes not a difference. DON'T UNDERESTIMATE THE BG! USE YOUR BRAIN, NOT MUSCLE OR WEAPON. WEAPON IS LAST RESORT.

First incidence I was faced with multiple armed treats with overwhelming odds. I co-operated, almost got killed when the guys taking the truck tried to run me over. They were high on drugs too.

Second time, I was not paying any attention, had something pressed in my back and ordered to lift my arms up, had my pockets emptied, then ordered to lie down and not look back. I never even saw the guy, never saw the weapon, and by the time I got up, he was long gone with his loot. Both of those two times I was young, lived in so-so neighborhoods in not so gun friendly states. Moving was not an option either. Sometimes life is just like that.

Then I had attempted car jacking. I pack, two big guys who were following me in a luxury car (big mistake, I never made them out to be crooks in a luxury car!) pack next to me, then approach my vehicle hastly enough my alarms went off. I ran and instinctively threw the keys (who says those commercials don't work on your mind?). Cops were already on their tail, got there in under 5 minutes, but not before BGs broke my right passenger lock got in the car and ramaged through the console and glove box probably looking for a spare key. Cops told me they were guys on the run desperate to ditch the stolen vehicle for another get away vehicle. It didn't matter they were in an expensive car, they wanted my beater. :D Sometimes you have to have a sense of humor.

Fourth incident happened 3yrs ago in yet another gun unfriendly state that's going to remain unnamed. Anyway, guy got into the house, I heard nothing.:uhoh: Then he comes in and somehow bumps into something and wakes me up. I wake up all groggy and ****, I have a six foot 250lbs guy standing right there facing me. :what: Talk about surprised! I had everything except my luck and God working against me. I literary was at BG's mercy. I sit up get out of bed, guy still there, obviously not phased at all. I stand up and you know, get the smell of blood in my nose and out of body experience where your life literary flashes light in front of you.:banghead: Seconds maybe pass and I felt no fear at all, other than the surreal out of body thing. I calmly ask the guy who he is, and what does he want in my house, and he says nothing at all, just a blank stare in his face, probably contemplating what to do to me. I am not even going to pretend I stood a fighting chance with the BG. He was powerful enough to knock the air right out me with one punch. I also told him I had no cash, but please help yourself to whatever you wish to take and leave. Guy stood there for what seemed an eternity, then calmly walks out through the living room and out the front door. It must have taken me a few minutes to get a grip of what just transpired, but panic set in soon. I call 911 and request an officer, tell them guy is gone, but I still like an officer. Anyway, I call the complex office while waiting on the cops and ask them if they sent a maintainance guy to my apartment hoping against hope this was not what I already knew it was. The said no one been sent there and remind me I had changed the locks to the place and never given them the keys. :eek: Yeah like I needed that dose of reality at that time. Anyway officer arrives takes a look around notes entry point in my bedroom window, muddy footsteps of the guy in the house, etc, then he tells me about recent spike in invasions in the area. Then he tells me what I already knew, "Sir, want my advice? Its time to move! This is statistically unlikely to be the last time this happens, and trust me you are very very lucky, and maybe next time you wont be so lucky. A guy like that already in your house totally surprising you, and you having a good look at him that you can describe him in this much detail is unlikely to leave you alive to call us and report it.".

Now I know I said a fire arm would not have helped either of those situations, but just the thought of being so defenseless in the last incident spurred me into action. I moved to a gun friendly state, registered with NRA, took the basic safety course and the CCW course twice. That's right I took it 2 times :D went on to get my CCW I would not call myself an anti; never sided with the Brady bunch, but I never cared much for firearms either way; Thought all yous gun nuts were funny hicks and out your minds too.:D I have to admit still don't carry if ever, but I have HD now, and trust me I get it now. Cop can't always get there fast enough to save your arse. I have never under estimated a criminal, and the ones I ran into were no scared punks. I do suspect punks would have been more likely to have injured me than the types I encountered, but these guys would certainly have killed if they encountered any resistance. I think best weapon is use your brain, know when not to offer resistance, but I sleep better knowing I have something I can grab to defend myself too. I hope I never live through another incident. I live in a better neighborhood now, but I also realize its no guarantee. Maybe better odds though. And if another perp ever pays me an uninvited visit in my sleep, I will paint him red, and no chance I will miss either. At this stage in my life, I now have others dependent on me, so I can't afford to be cavalier about these things anymore. And there is almost no chance anyone comes in with me dead asleep hearing nothing. I took some safety measures on that front. Once was one too many times for me. I just felt so violated. Good things we have states that recognize the good guys deserve the right to respond in kind to the BG and allow us that option. My conversion happened later in life, but better that than go through life always leaving your life's fate to others.
 
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Now who is underestimating who?

i'm not underestimating anyone. i was speaking of the people who buy a gun as a security blanket, the people who buy guns, place them in their nightstand or closet and forget about them untill the time they may need them.

how many gun owners do you know?

how many gun owners do you know that carry?

how many of them practice regularly?

how many train realistically, or have sought professional instruction?

i'm willing to bet that the answer to the first question is much higher than the answer to the other questions.
 
dec41971-

thanks for your story. i agree that your weapon should be your last resort, and that your brain is always your best line of defense. situational awareness is the most critical aspect of self defense, be aware of your surroundings and if possible get away before things turn bad.
 
You are right. I try hard to remind myself of that, but I have to admit to being often absent minded and day dreaming. I don't know why, it just happens.:eek: I think sometimes the crooks can tell you are not the alert type. I attribute that to being the main reason I got mugged. Hey at least I am man enough to admit my flaws. Other two incidents I think I was just convenient crime victim, that's all.

Also I tend to have little if any fear of anything if ever. Been told too many times I have balls of steel that I realize its not really a complement at all, but people unknowingly pointing out some of my weaknesses. I am working on it, especially now that I got mouths to feed and feel responsible to be around for them. I think its just character traits that are hard to overcome. I am generally a very friendly nice guy, who unfortunately tends to think the same of others until they prove otherwise. I am making progress though. And I do shoot often too, but I pray I never have to take aim at a human. I'd feel horribly even though I know I absolutely would do the necessary if it ever came to that.
 
Also I tend to have little if any fear of anything if ever. Been told too many times I have balls of steel that I realize its not really a complement at all, but people unknowingly pointing out some of my weaknesses. I am working on it, especially now that I got mouths to feed and feel responsible to be around for them. I think its just character traits that are hard to overcome. I am generally a very friendly nice guy, who unfortunately tends to think the same of others until they prove otherwise. I am making progress though. And I do shoot often too, but I pray I never have to take aim at a human. I'd feel horribly even though I know I absolutely would do the necessary if it ever came to that.

sounds like your headed in the right direction so far, you know what area you need to work on and have good reasons to make the improvements. just stick with it, change doesn't happen overnight. you can continue to be friendly to people just remember that if you meet a stranger treat him like a stranger, that doesn't mean be rude or standoffish but just stay aware of his/her actions and try to be prepared as possible.
 
Criminals cannot buy ammo anywhere if they are convicted of a crime,even at Walmart.

In PA you just have to look over 21. You give them the money they hand you the ammo. Nothing in writing and no show ID.

They could be buying it but my guess is they can steal it cheaper.
 
I've known a lot of crooks. Some were stupid, some smart. Some were cowards, some were not. They fall into the same categories as everyone else, because they are just people, like us. Some of the criminals I knew were guys that I enjoyed talking with. If we had met some other way we might have been friends, even.
Others were despicable people, who could have dropped dead in front of me without stirring any emotion whatsoever.
We play a rather idiotic game when we decide to type cast "bad guys." It is no easier than trying to figure out the real identities of all of the posters on this board. Which is precisely why I don't try to figure out those times I might need a gun and those times that I won't. I carry always, and respect everyone.
 
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