What do you think the Arms industry will do if a permanent AWB happens

[MagnumDweeb]

As I understand it, when the last AWB happened, there were still a lot of "high capacity" semi-automatic rifles on the market. And handgun manufacturers worked on making handguns with ten round capacities as small as possible. And many manufacturers worked to fall within the compliance.

Now granted I'm not entirely knowledgeable about what happened during the last AWB under Clinton, so someone explaining that would help a lot, especially where laws, ARs, AKs, and semi-rifles in general.

Supposedly Obama wants to remove the amendment that prevents victims of violent crimes from sueing gun manufacturers, and to child proof guns (is that by installing an internal lock on every gun). So I imagine most gun manufacturers will scale back on any evil looking guns. Hopefully should it happen it'd be great if all the gun manufacturers decided to liquidate their government (army, police, etc.) productions to make it clear that the civilian market is just as important as the government market.

Could we be looking at more revolvers, smaller semi-automatics, or new calibers of handgun ammunition in semi-automatics that outspace the 10mm (can anyone say a short lengthed 13.7mm [yes a .50]). Could we be looking at ARs done up like in California essentially castrated. Also mayhaps could there be a reemergence of the revolver rifle, maybe in .450 bushmaster. Also more semi-rifles with internal tube magazines like that of the Ruger .44 Carbine.

Now a lot of states allow folks to homebrew there own guns, like for parts kits and such. Could there be an emergence of a "homebrew" culture. Folks buying the tools and sharing in the knowledge of hammering out receivers in garages and buying lathes to rifle their barrels. Which I think we should be doing anyway, just wish I owned my own house and was done with law school so I could have a place to do it. So if it's still legal, could there be an emergence of the homebrew culture.

Let's keep this a non-political post please, lets not mention anything that isn't technology, industry, or firearm fabrication related. No rants about losing our rights or anything, save that for CNN.

 

[Duke of Doubt]

Assuming the 1994 ban comes back, permanently, the arms makers will not be much-affected.

The AR, the AK and the SKS patterns were manufactured and imported, respectively, during the ban, just without bayonet lugs and flash suppressors. No big changes.

High capacity magazines will get expensive again.

Low capacity small pistols will become fashionable again, and produced in quantity again.

Gun writers will flip back from high capacity pistols to the 1911 pattern and revolvers, again, so they can continue to get free new guns to review.

The 1994 ban was more of a nuisance than a true restriction of guns. It may pass Heller scrutiny if renewed.

 

[dave_pro2a]

If they were smart, stop selling to all LEO and governmental agencies.

 

[MT GUNNY]

Lay off a bunch of people!! Including Myself!

 

[MatthewVanitas]

If they were smart, stop selling to all LEO and governmental agencies.

Why on earth would they give up on the government customers who pay them good money?

I know it sounds great to demand that other people lose money over principle, but many of these companies are publicly traded, and feel an obligation to their investors to, y'know, keep making money.

The likelihood of a serious boycott crippling S&W is pretty low, and Colt spent much of the last 15 years not sure if they were selling to non-.gov customers at all. And let's not even mention HK's attitude. Sure a few smaller shops might refuse gov't contracts, but it's not like tons of cops buy from Cooper Arms.

Assuming the 1994 ban comes back, permanently, the arms makers will not be much-affected.

Clearly, we're all just speculating for yucks, and I personally would lay money on a new AWB not actually making it all the way. That said, it a new one does come through, I'd bet it would have to be more restrictive than the previous one. I can't imagine them saying "yeah, remember that legislation that cost us political capital and didn't solve anything? Let's just duplicate that again."

If an AWB does come down the pike, I'm betting it will be notably more restrictive. If I had to guess, it would be at least something like California's laws. Maybe even further, it might forbid making firearms capable of using the pre-existing 10+ magazines, thus making pre-ban mags only usable in pre-ban guns, which would help sidestep the "loophole" 1994-2004 of just paying extra for pre-ban mags for your post-ban guns.

Again, just speculating, but I don't see them doing a full confiscation of EBRs. Compensated confiscation would be horrendously expensive, and uncompensated compensation would cost them millions of votes from people who aren't necessarily "big into guns" but would be ticked to lose a $500 AK or $900 AR. More likely would be either just cutting new production of evil features (and maybe the mag compatibility blocking), or perhaps adding EBRs to the NFA (though it'd create horrendous expansion of bureaucracy to cover millions of rifles). Or else just a CA-style system, though with no option to sell your rifle out of state. You could just keep it, maybe pass it to your kids, but never sell it.


I don't bet there'll be a new ban, but if there is a new one I'm 90% sure it'll be notably more restrictive than the old one.

 

[Glockman17366]

At least some AR manufacturers started off as contract machine shops (aka job shops). If an AWB was passed and passed court muster, I immagine they would focus more on contract machining...after laying off a some of their work force.

 

[jackdanson]

If an AWB does come down the pike, I'm betting it will be notably more restrictive.

YEP, my predictions are

A. It will be permenant.
B. It will ban whole designs, not just features.. meaning nothing based on the ak or ar platform at all.
C. Anything over 10 rds will be banned.

As far as companies go? Some will be in serious doodoo. RRA, century, bushmaster, etc. will be screwed. Remington, SW, ruger will barely feel it. Ruger probably wants one to pass, as I bet the mini won't be included in the ban. If AR's and AK's are banned, everyone will naturally move to mini's as a replacement.

The big companies won't feel it until the "sniper weapon" ban or urban children protection act comes into play. (both of those are fictional, as of now)

 

[taliv]

It would also have to be written so that it at least has a shot at getting past heller

 

[Duke of Doubt]

That wouldn't be too hard (Heller)

Look at all the gun magazine articles calling the 1911 .45ACP the best pistol and cartridge in history, and all the people saying the Army should have kept it. That gun carries seven rounds. What so recently was, and arguably now is, good enough for the Army is probably good enough for the civilians, under Heller. Whether the M9 creates some sort of presumption that 9mm and 15 rounds is protected, too is open to debate, of course.

 

[DoubleTapDrew]

Gun writers will flip back from high capacity pistols to the 1911 pattern

They stopped writing about 1911s? Seems like every gun rag I've picked up over the past year had a 1911 on the cover and at least 2 feature articles on them in each one. The one thing they all had in common was price tags over $1,000 and, oh, they were all 1911s.
One thing we have on our side this time is more people interested in evil black rifles. It would be a hard argument to reinstate an AWB. The last one was an epic failure. Now people aren't quite as gulliable and know that if SHTF they are going to have to rely on themselves for at least a while (Katrina).
The gun and magazine sellers will try to get you to believe Obama is going to pass an executive order tomorrow and every magazine they sell will be the last one ever and worth it's weight in diamond alien poop, but I don't think this administration will touch the issue with a 10 foot pole, at least for a year or two.

 

[MatthewVanitas]

One thing we have on our side this time is more people interested in evil black rifles.

This is a biggie. I wasn't into guns in 1994 (being too young to own one), but from what I understand EBRs were not terribly common at the time. Nowadays they're a pretty substantial chunk of the firearms market.

That and a large percentage of pistols sold in the last decade take 10+ magazines.

So the number of people who would be personally impacted by such laws has increased considerably, and if current trends continue a greater and greater percentage of shooters will have an EBR and/or 10+ capacity pistol in their collection.

Though antis like to point out a general, gradual decline in firearms ownership, for every three "my 30-06 and 5 shots per year" shooter we who dies of old age we're getting two young "got my first post-college job and bought a Sig 226 and an AR-15" shooters.

 

[Golden Hound]

One thing we have on our side this time is more people interested in evil black rifles. It would be a hard argument to reinstate an AWB. The last one was an epic failure. Now people aren't quite as gulliable and know that if SHTF they are going to have to rely on themselves for at least a while (Katrina).

We're looking at this from a skewed perspective. Of course to us there are a lot more evil rifles out there - it is true that they've sold very well and are becoming more popular than ever. However that's like saying that more calligraphers than ever are using German-made pens instead of American-made pens. We're still a small subculture, and we're still marginalized enough that they don't give a damn about our rights (or just what we want.) I mean, if evil-rifle-owners were really that much of a political force to be reckoned with then Obama wouldn't have mentioned an AWB AT ALL, not on his website, not anywhere.

The "they're not going to care about guns, the economy is too important" cuts BOTH WAYS, people. It's going to be just as easy for the politicians to say "the economy is too important for people to be worrying about whether or not they can have some specific kind of rifle." Since most people don't know anything about guns and think that AR-15s are fully-automatic machine guns preferred by street gangs, they'll be fine with this.

 

[Treo]

I Think It Depends

I think it comes down to which is true, are we being governed by a bunch of well meaning idiots who truly believe that gun control laws will save lives? Or are we being governed by a bunch of globalists who would like nothing better than to create a socialist utopia (under the auspices of the U.N.) right here in America. A bunch of people who know damn good and well that gun control laws affect criminals not one whit, but serve to dis-arm the very people who would resist their plans.

If the latter is true I promise they will push an AWB as hard as they possibly can and get rid of any semiauto they can stretch the definition over,while doing every thing in their power to marginalize & discredit gun owners.

Is any of this starting to sound familiar?

 

[Gunnerpalace]

Mark my words


When this comes up for vote "incidents" will happen and get major play on the news.

 

[Golden Hound]

Yes. Think of how several school shootings occurred under the Bush administration but no anti-gun measures were passed after them. The same will not happen this time around. There will be a school shooting (they happen, unfortunately, every year) and although it probably will not involve rifles at all, only handguns, an AWB will be proposed and passed in response.

Let me add that it's much easier to pass anti-gun measures than it is to repeal them. If America is made into Europe during the next 8 years WRT guns, it may never go back to how it is now. Ever.

 

[ReadyontheRight]

Mark my words

When this comes up for vote "incidents" will happen and get major play on the news.

"Mark my words," the Democratic vice presidential nominee (Joe Boden) warned at the second of his two Seattle fundraisers Sunday. "It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We're about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here if you don't remember anything else I said. Watch, we're gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy."

"I can give you at least four or five scenarios from where it might originate," Biden said to Emerald City supporters, mentioning the Middle East and Russia as possibilities. "And he's gonna need help. And the kind of help he's gonna need is, he's gonna need you - not financially to help him - we're gonna need you to use your influence, your influence within the community, to stand with him. Because it's not gonna be apparent initially, it's not gonna be apparent that we're right....

...There are gonna be a lot of you who want to go, 'Whoa, wait a minute, yo, whoa, whoa, I don't know about that decision'," Biden continued. "Because if you think the decision is sound when they're made, which I believe you will when they're made, they're not likely to be as popular as they are sound. Because if they're popular, they're probably not sound.

Sounds like setting up an infringement on the BOR to me. It won't be school shootings, it will be terrorist attacks.

It won't work. Because of internet sites like this.

 

[Golden Hound]

"I can give you at least four or five scenarios from where it might originate," Biden said to Emerald City supporters, mentioning the Middle East and Russia as possibilities. "And he's gonna need help. And the kind of help he's gonna need is, he's gonna need you - not financially to help him - we're gonna need you to use your influence, your influence within the community, to stand with him. Because it's not gonna be apparent initially, it's not gonna be apparent that we're right....

...There are gonna be a lot of you who want to go, 'Whoa, wait a minute, yo, whoa, whoa, I don't know about that decision'," Biden continued. "Because if you think the decision is sound when they're made, which I believe you will when they're made, they're not likely to be as popular as they are sound. Because if they're popular, they're probably not sound.

Those are some of the most confusing and bizarre paragraphs I've ever read. I can't even tell what the hell he's talking about. I mean, I know that politicians are experts at the verbal run-around, using a huge number of words to say almost nothing, but Biden is really an ace at it, from those excerpts.

 

[Treo]

As long as we're here I'm going throw this out:

I would say that for those who legally can now would be a really good time to pick up some FTF weapons in private sales

 

[moooose102]

while in principal, it would be wonderful if the manufacturers would quit making these guns for the government. it will not happen. our government is to big, and to powerfull for that to work. the feds would simply pressure them into doing what ever they pleased with a variety of ways including but not limited to tax incentives, continual osha inspections where fines would be given out for any and every infraction, raising property taxes, pulling manufacturing licenses, changing zoning rules(forcing them to reloacte) etc., etc., etc. our government is so big and powerful, that it no longer works for us. it hasnt for many years. washington is an entity all by itself now, and we are just stuck to it and we are all gong for a ride. eventually, they will go to far, and we will have a reveloution. personally, i think that is what they are worried about, so they want to start the disarming process now. less civilian guns = less resistance.

 

[benEzra]

As I understand it, when the last AWB happened, there were still a lot of "high capacity" semi-automatic rifles on the market. And handgun manufacturers worked on making handguns with ten round capacities as small as possible. And many manufacturers worked to fall within the compliance.

Now granted I'm not entirely knowledgeable about what happened during the last AWB under Clinton, so someone explaining that would help a lot, especially where laws, ARs, AKs, and semi-rifles in general.

Here's what the 1994 AWB did, and didn't, do, with regard to rifles:

It also greatly raised the prices on over-10-round magazines for handguns. After the initial panic subsided, AR/AK/FAL/HK magazine prices were not significantly affected, but handgun magazine prices were.

H.R.1022 et seq (current AWB proposals) go WAY beyond the 1994 non-ban, though.

 

[pith43]

jackdanson,I will bet you 1,000 American Dollars that none of your dire, 3 predictions will come true in your lifetime.
Or mine,jack.Game?

I'll take that bet. If any one of them come true, you can pay me. If not, I'll pay you when one of us dies

 

[gbran]

taliv

It would also have to be written so that it at least has a shot at getting past heller

Yes, Heller wasn't around during the '94 ban and because this would be a new federal law, not a state law, I could see where Heller might have an impact this time around.

 

[IndianaBoy]

Minor point:


You can't rifle a barrel with a lathe. Hammer forging or button rifling a barrel is one if the things that a small shop generally cannot do. It takes some serious dedicated machinery to make a rifle barrel.

 

[The Swede]

Can someone explain how a new ban can be made permanent. Why can the next pres not overturn that ruling?

 

[Duke of Doubt]

I think that's what they mean, Swede. Nothing is "permanent."