40 will be around-but may end up as second place
The .40 S&W is a great round with ONE real problem, RECOIL.
I have carried one for the last 17 years and as I get older, I would really like to go back to the 9m.m.
I can see my qualification scores are slowly going down as I age. I used to shoot in the high 140's out of a possible 150. Now I can just average about 140. Maybe it is the ammo, but I doubt it. I shoot my 9.m.m, .38 Special and .357 magnum (much heavier gun) just as well at the range.
My agency has been issuing it for almost 20 years and recoil and accelerated wear on the guns has been the main problem.
We have been switching to weaker and weaker rounds, without explanation for the last 10 years. We started out with the 155 grain jhp at 1200 fps and it hit really hard. I never heard of any complaints about it failing in the field.
Then, when we replaced our full size, BERETTA 96D Brigadiers (a 96 with a beefed up slide) with a smaller gun, the H&K P2000, we went to a lighter bullet.
Over the years, the main complaints about the BERETTA were the size (it is big and heavy) and how fast it wore out. We had worn out our model 96D's in about 10 years.
This followed our dropping the 9m.m. GLOCK 17, which legacy officer were allowed to carry. We still had constant complaints from officers about the H&K being harder to shoot and less accurate. In my experience, the H&K is quite accurate, but the recoil is an issue that lowers qualification scores.
Now, we are buying 180 grain "WHITE BOX" jhp ammo and recoil is softer. I just hope we do not go to the 165 grain FBI MEDIUM load (same velocity as the 180 with a lighter bullet). I would rather have my GLOCK 19 back, loaded with +P+ ammo!
As I get older, some of that 9m.m. standard pressure ammo is looking better all the time!
I predict that the .40 will be around for a while. I think the FBI lost some credibility with the whole 10m.m./.40 caliber debacle and now going back to a 9m.m.
Some departments will want to stay with the more powerful round and the .40 S&W, in the hotter loads, is a step above the 9m.m. or .45ACP in my opinion. You get high velocity (in the 155 and 165 grain full power loads) and a heavier bullet. The price is recoil which effects control and practical accuracy or going to a full size gun.
The only other choice is the 10m.m. or .357 magnum, neither likely to be adopted by any large agency.
Just my two cents worth.
Jim