Why confiscation won't work

[Spooler41]

Seems to me that in the last few years some eastern seaboard states
passed gun registration laws. When calls from the states for registration
to begin,less than 5% of gun owners answered the call to sign up.
Again when a minority of Washingtons eligible voters passed I-594 , a
law that requires universal,background checks, and other onus gun laws
that will lead to gun registration. Now in the year since it went into effect
there have been no effort to enforce this law, no one charged, or prosecuted
for its violation. The state seems to have no will to test this law that cost
Bloomberg and other well healed donors something in excess of $50 million.
I believe that this is another case of the government throwing a gun
registration party that no one came too.

...................... Jack

 

[fiddleharp]

I'm willing to bet that if user data was averaged out, almost all the posters on THR are white guys at least sixty years old. All the gun-grabbers need to do is simply wait us out. Future generations of girly-men and third-world immigrants won't hold out very long, if at all. Grandpa's stash will be surrendered upon his death.
This post by X-rap is a good one: "I also have to ask, how many would walk away from all the comfort and security that they have accumulated, house, pension/401, job, recreation/toys.
Pledging ones life, fortune and sacred honor against ones government is a big deal and life changing event that I have little faith many would follow."
The Civil Rights activists during the 1960's are now regarded as heroes because they spent a fair amount of time behind bars for defying local Jim Crow laws. Today's white working-class guy can't afford to be arrested over and over like that. He'd lose his job, house, car, and maybe even his wife if he took up that lifestyle. Joe Sixpack is just too far in debt to risk sticking his neck out.

 

[moe.ron]

They would have to create a whole new department just to gather addresses. Probably take a decade or so, and that's if nobody has moved.

 

[ramsfan]

Door to door won't be necessary. Once they have names on a list there will taxes, fees, penalties and insurance requirements imposed on those individuals. You will get a letter in the mail requiring you to turn in what they think have, meet some standard of proof that you no longer have it, or face the consequences. They don't need to break your door down and take them. Much easier to use methods like freezing bank accounts, garnishing wages, withholding tax refunds, suspending a drivers license, etc.

 

[22-rimfire]

To think, anti-England sentiments were fueled by a stupid tax on tea which developed into the Revolutionary War?

 

[brewer12345]

The lowest hanging fruit is ammo. Without any help from congress, I believe the president can ban imports from, say, Russia. Take a look around. In most calibers the cheapest ammo readily available is Russian. Cut that off and you start turning the screw on supply. Chip, chip, chip. How many people can no longer afford to shoot if the cheapest 9mm or .223 is over a buck a round?

 

[22-rimfire]

The lowest hanging fruit is ammo. Without any help from congress, I believe the president can ban imports from, say, Russia. Take a look around. In most calibers the cheapest ammo readily available is Russian. Cut that off and you start turning the screw on supply. Chip, chip, chip. How many people can no longer afford to shoot if the cheapest 9mm or .223 is over a buck a round?

This is true. But, I believe the two San Bernardino shooters shot like 65-75 rounds at the party. Doesn't take a lot of ammunition to create a big problem if you are willing to do it and I don't think it would matter if it was $10 a round. What the import deal would impact are normal honest people..... hummmm, maybe that is what the President wants......

 

[Aragon]

They would have to create a whole new department just to gather addresses. Probably take a decade or so, and that's if nobody has moved.

Naw.

The NRA makes a lot of use of the US Post Office. While it certainly wouldn't be legal, it would be easy enough for the gov't to figure out who is receiving renewal notices, lifetime membership mailings, etc.

 

[moe.ron]

Naw.

The NRA makes a lot of use of the US Post Office. While it certainly wouldn't be legal, it would be easy enough for the gov't to figure out who is receiving renewal notices, lifetime membership mailings, etc.

Well I'm going have to give you a naw right back, because that's a good idea, makes sense, and would be cheaper!

 

[RPRNY]

Confiscation will not take the form of a goon squad kicking in your door in the vast majority of cases. Using 4473 forms and other "evidence", gun owners will be compelled to turn in their firearms. Remember, the left isn't serious about gun control; they just don't want middle class white men to have guns, so they don't care about missing out on millions of guns.

If, upon summons, you fail to turn in the firearms their"evidence" says you have, you will be forced to prove that you don't have the firearms. If there is a gap, the logical move will be to fine you or garnish wages, or put liens on property etc, etc. Not catastrophic, not incendiary, not something that will cause a serious backlash. And plenty of people that would have held out under the threat of eventual midnight raids by alphabet agency goons will crumble under the more Gestapo like tactics of the IRS.

 

[ROCK6]

A force confiscation will never work publically, but as many have already mentioned...it's not needed. Taxes, fees and mandated insurance will force a large percentage of the population into self-turn-in. Most with a couple firearms would probably grumble but pay an annual (arbitrary) $50 tax per gun and a 20-30% insurance hike in their premiums. That would root out those with more firearms and if threats from the IRS or other fee-collecting agency comes knocking, it becomes a serious issue for the middle-class, law abiding gun owner.

Regulations are the chain links to slavery...after a while there are too many and they're too heavy to resist for the common citizen and that is how tyranny triumphs without brute force. Sure, I could see a few raids to confiscate...it only takes a bureaucrat without the Constitutional restrictions to bypass due-process and label a suspected gun owner as a threat to society because they complained about their taxes, were prescribed certain medications, served in the Military, were vocal about their personal political views or even attended a church sermon that didn't sit well with the government.

Not getting involved now is how confiscation really won't be needed except for a few (maybe 3%?) cases. Most think of a national strategy...it won't be. However, the best way some governments controlled their populations where to target and remove any vocal dissenters. It's been very effective for tyrannical governments and we have millions willing to sacrifice liberty for security.

ROCK6

 

[Tommygunn]

Confiscation will not take the form of a goon squad kicking in your door in the vast majority of cases. Using 4473 forms and other "evidence", gun owners will be compelled to turn in their firearms. Remember, the left isn't serious about gun control; they just don't want middle class white men to have guns, so they don't care about missing out on millions of guns.

If, upon summons, you fail to turn in the firearms their"evidence" says you have, you will be forced to prove that you don't have the firearms. If there is a gap, the logical move will be to fine you or garnish wages, or put liens on property etc, etc. Not catastrophic, not incendiary, not something that will cause a serious backlash. And plenty of people that would have held out under the threat of eventual midnight raids by alphabet agency goons will crumble under the more Gestapo like tactics of the IRS.

I quote RPRNY's post as an example of one who claims there will be no mass forcible door-ro-door confiscation of firearms. My purpose is not to debate the premise (I do not have a crystal ball) but to ask a question:

Given the theoretical situation that RPRNY's (and others) assertion comes to pass, as stated in his final paragraph, what then do we do?

Some people postulate that should a confiscation happen, it would precipitate a second "civil war."
Should that be our response to the "RPRNY scenario?" (as I will call it).
One might, I suspect, answer that we must be vigilant and keep the antigun politicos out of office to fight this -- and I'd would not disagree -- but by the time the RPRNY scenario happens, IMHO it will be too late for that.
So what do we do?
Anyone have some good ideas?

 

[SuperNaut]

So what do we do?
Anyone have some good ideas?

Take advantage of every legal means available to us. Donate to the NRA-ILA and SAF, write your representatives, join and participate with PopVox, set an example, take noobs to the range.

Oh, and keep buying a ton of guns, the skyrocketing gun sales seem to be pissing-off hoplophobes quite a bit.

 

[Tommygunn]

Take advantage of every legal means available to us. Donate to the NRA-ILA and SAF, write your representatives, join and participate with PopVox, set an example, take noobs to the range.

Oh, and keep buying a ton of guns, the skyrocketing gun sales seem to be pissing-off hoplophobes quite a bit.

Well, yeah ....been doing that already; just received my free jacknife the NRA sent me for donating $100.00. Inexpensive but sorta nice in fact; it has carbon fiber panels on the side and my father used to work in carbon fiber. Plus I just bought a Rossi R92, a Colt Lightning, and a Winchester 1892 Deluxe Takedown in .32-20 back in march. I'm running outta room!
I was thinking what do we do everything fails and the RPRNY scenario is already happening? At that point buying guns won't be an option & maybe the NRA and GOA are history? What then?

 

[CoalTrain49]

I also hear those who say that the authorities will have no taste for the task. Again those same people have years invested in their jobs and have based their future well being and survival on the pension they will receive. State, local, federal, military they all have a great deal riding on how they follow their superiors orders.
Don't get me wrong, I never want to see the day when we are at the point in this country that we were in the 1850-60's but I think we are certainly on that path. I feel that I want no more compromises on the 2a and that the death from a thousand cuts is the plan at this time along with extreme proposals that make lesser ones seem reasonable.
Secret lists and the ramifications to individual freedoms aren't even considered in the debate.

I'm just curious, have you ever worked for a gov't agency? From your response it appears you haven't. I had 30 years with a gov't agency and I can tell you it doesn't work like that except in the military. There are many reasons that agency employees are terminated. The agency where I worked had to go through a process that took about 2 years to actually terminate someone. I was involved in several instances where I was directed to do something that was illegal or would have opened up the agency, myself or both to legal action. I refused several directives while employed there. In one incident I sought legal counsel through my own attorney and the union. In neither case was I fired, nor did I lose any pay, benefits or pension. These matters can and do go to court but generally a settlement is reached before that happens. A pension in this case is viewed as an asset like a 401 k and generally isn't fair game in a termination proceeding. In all my years with that agency (3000 employees) did I ever see anyone lose their pension in a termination. Bottom line is you are still liable for your actions in a civil suit. You just don't do something stupid or illegal just because your superior/supervisor tells you to.

Maybe you have a different experience. If you do I would like to hear it.

 

[SuperNaut]

Well, yeah ....been doing that already; just received my free jacknife the NRA sent me for donating $100.00. Inexpensive but sorta nice in fact; it has carbon fiber panels on the side and my dather used to work in carbon fiber.

Getting the free knife is for an NRA membership. Donating to the NRA-ILA and SAF is what gets you legal representation in 2A battles.

Plus I just bought a Rossi R92, a Colt Lightning, and a Winchester 1892 Deluxe Takedown in .32-20 back in march. I'm running outta room!

Heh-heh, where there's a will, there's a way!

I was thinking what do we do everything fails and the RPRNY scenario is already happening? At that point buying guns won't be an option & maybe the NRA and GOA are history? What then?

There are lot of steps and legal battles between here and there, and I dislike focusing on hypotheticals when I see so few actual warm bodies showing up on Capitol Hill.

 

[X-Rap]

Coaltrain, all your comments are from present or past experiences. We can all agree, at least I hope so, that confiscation would be unconstitutional under the present court as well as most of us on this board so all we are doing is speculation but when or if the will to try to disarm America I doubt the protections you speak of will matter much.

 

[george burns]

In my state, there is no way of knowing who has what. Buying and selling of guns goes on all the time between private parties, with nothing other than the showing or proof of residency to make it legal.
I get a letter saying that I asked the buyer if he was a prohibited person, and he said no, and I have us both sign it, along with a lok at his drivers license. But let's be honest, how the heck do I really know if the guy is a prohibited person without running him through the NCIC data base or other such lists, which have also been known to be iffy.
So the guns you bought 25 years ago and sold or yesterday, are gone forever into the virtual world. Who knows where some of my 50 year old guns ended up. I sure don't, that is why confiscation won't work in certain states.
In NY you needed to get a form to sell your gun privately or otherwise be able to show you no longer have it, but most places don't have that rule, so the entire thing is bizarre, when old guys get really old, they sell or give away their guns to friends or family members, how can this ever be realistically done
http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?t=769073&highlight=private+sales+in+fl

 

[CoalTrain49]

Coaltrain, all your comments are from present or past experiences. We can all agree, at least I hope so, that confiscation would be unconstitutional under the present court as well as most of us on this board so all we are doing is speculation but when or if the will to try to disarm America I doubt the protections you speak of will matter much.

I retired 3 years ago but the process is still the same. I still talk to agency employees frequently.

I honestly believe the threat, if there was any, would come from a federal agency, not any local or state agency. I've been out of the military too long to have any feeling for that one.

Most unlikely from the fed as they don't have the resources to do it even if they wanted to.

 

[X-Rap]

I agree that confiscation in the door to door sense will never work but what good is your gun collection if you have to tear your walls up or dig into your yard to look at it?
How could you use your guns if any shot would draw attention, how could you defend yourself or family if any intruder found with a gunshot would mean jailtime for yourself.
Do you really think self defense laws would stay the same in the face of gun Prohibitions?

 

[GAF]

Most people will just turn them in .
Why does anyone on THR tell the
world what they are going to do?

Under the proposed scenario you really
only have two choices maybe three, but
i`ll only suggest two. Turn them in or keep them.

 

[george burns]

I don't think we are telling the world anything, just discussing the alternatives and answering the question as we see fit. I am too old to change my ways, and can't run fast anymore. Do as you see fit should it ever come to that, which I doubt we will see in our lifetime.

 

[Guy B. Meredith]

NO, the Australian buy back did not work. Take a look at the Australian Institute of Criminology's reports and read the local newspapers.

There are now an estimated 1/4 million to 6 million illegal guns in circulation. The buy back covered semi-auto and pump firearms and around 600,000 were collected. Basically the Aussies haven't a clue as to how many are still out there.

This is despite the fact that Aussies do not have constitutional protection of our Bill of Rights like protection from search and seizure.

The only rights explicit in the Aussie constitution of which I am aware are:

1. Right of trial by jury
2. Right to religious freedom (rights to free speech are "inferred" from this, not actually explicit in the constitution)
3. Right against discrimination by one state against the resident of another
4. Right to just compensation (hence the buy back rather than confiscation).

Some other notes on the Aussie story.

First, I've seen notes that the buy back reduced the suicide rate. I'm more than skeptical as it takes only one shot to commit suicide and the buy back did not include single or double shot firearms.

Since the buy back and strict laws enacted in 1996 there have been shooting incidents with multiple victims and situations which could have easily escalated to public mass shootings. One was the Lindt cafe hostage crisis in Sydney in December of 2014 where the perp had some of the 18 hostages holding Islamic literature up to the cafe windows. The perp could easily have escalated but did not.

Gun violence is traditionally low in Australia--all other forms of weapon and non weapon homicide are 4 times the rate by firearms--and the Port Arthur shooting was a major spike in the rate. Per the AIC the rate was low and falling and went back to the same curve after the buyback.

The rate is low and falling despite the illegal guns in circulation. I'm thinking this would seem to indicate that the low rate of violence is a cultural thing.

 

[barnbwt]

Australia also has more money than they've had for a while, which helps a lot when it comes to social violence rates.

"The rate is low and falling despite the illegal guns in circulation. I'm thinking this would seem to indicate that the low rate of violence is a cultural thing."
Despite all the full auto subguns being churned out in illicit shops, too

I read recently that the number of legally-registered firearms is approaching the number present when the buyback first occurred 20 (?) years ago; tells us quite a lot about how 'just' that compensation was, which criminally undervalued most/all submissions from what I understand. The surge in gun owners as well as the Port Arthur anniversary are what is driving the latest push for a purge in the country (from the sounds of it, basically all repeaters are the end goal, for now)

TCB

 

[RPRNY]

As several people have mentioned, the things to do to prevent "insidious confiscation", inducement through fiscal and regulatory penalties, is to be politically active, to support pro 2A judicial activism and effective lobbying groups and to hold everyone's feet to the fire. There's no middle ground left. NFA and GCA ate up all the middle ground. From now on, it has to be advance by rolling back infringement and a scorched earth policy fighting ANY new restrictions.