Sam1911 said:
But unless all the gunny guys quit the day they handed out the Glocks, and a bunch of non-shooters joined the force that day, then the substantive driving factor behind any change in the rate of mistaken discharge would have to be the gun itself.
It seems intuitively obvious that the driving factor behind any change in the rate of mistaken discharge is the gun itself. That may be correct. You've made what seems to be a valid assessment. That sample is large, but we don't know that it's representative. And while we discuss Glocks here, the guns in the LASD report were S&W M&Ps.
The
NYPD has data available on line as of 2012, for ten years of service. The Glock 19 was first introduced in 1994 to new officers, with many others transitioning to that weapon in the following years. (It is believed that 25,000 NYPD officers are now carrying Glock 19s, and the remaining officers, who kept their existing weapons, use P226s, and S&W 59XX series weapons.)
LASD = 10,000 officers with 113 unintentional discharges. Avg of 10.9 a year. This is .0113 ND per officer.
NYPD = 34,000 officers with 216 unintentional discharges. avg of 21.6 a year. This is .006 ND per officer overall or .008 ND per officer if you attribute all the bad stuff to Glocks -- but even then, that's still lower than LASD.
The NYPD has three times as many officers carrying weapons as the LA Sheriff's Department, but less than twice as many unintended discharges -- and 72% of the NYPD officers are carrying striker-fired (non-DA/SA) weapons.
The LASD's NDs had fluctuated a lot in the early years of the study, before the M&Ps were introduced, and it was only the last year of the reporting period (which prompted the study) that the rate was particularly high.
During the first three years transition to M&P use, the ND rate was actually lower than prior to the change.
Only the LAST YEAR was particularly bad, and because the same weapon had been used in the prior two-three years, that SPIKE might suggest that MORE than just the weapon alone had something to do with the increase. (The report was completed in late 2015, and there had been only 17 NDs that year, 7 in tactical situations [on the job] and 10 in non-tactical situations. According to the source, the non-tactical rate has been pretty steady most years.) The study shows that during the first year of transition (2013) to the M&P, there were both SIGs and Berettas involved in negligent discharges, but no M&Ps.
If you assume that only the NYPD Glocks had the unintentional discharges -- they NYPD rate of ND is still substantially lower than the LASD problem rate.
Here's a link to the NYPD stats:
http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/nypd_annual_firearms_discharge_report_2011.pdf
And where the NYPD Glocks-in-use count came from:
http://www.glockforum.com/A-Year-in-the-Life-of-the-NYPD-Glocks.html
Using statistics or making judgments from what you read is a bit like reading tea leaves -- it's as much an art as a science. And like tea leaves, you can often see anything you want.