Rationing has
never led to a stable supply in history. All it accomplishes is the diversion of a portion of the market to favored sectors that wouldn't normally have the means or desire to partake (whether it's diverting rubber for military tires, gasoline to emergency responders, or ammo to 'serial buyers'). Emergencies can make it a necessary evil, but it is never efficient for the market. We
are the market; when it is inefficient, it inevitably hurts
all of us by definition. And only we individuals can correctly determine our personal level of need for goods in the market.
What if he finds ammo available, but it's just expensive? He'll probably grudgingly buy it, rationalizing that the extra ten bucks isn't so bad since he only shoots a box every three months. Not compared to missing out on an afternoon with his son. The heavy shooter will either fall back on his reserves, shoot less, go bankrupt, or some combination. Without heavy shooters
all clamoring for product at the same time
along with all the new/panic buyers, prices quickly stabilize and fall. If the latter two groups sustain their demand, production/supply will eventually rise. Market cured.
When rationing is present, people are forced to meet their needs in small piecemeal bits. The insufficient quantity and unpredictable availability of these bits means a person has to have extra bits on hand to ensure they make it through the lean times. A massive incentive to find ways to accumulate bits faster than others arises, since such a situation means instant guaranteed profit. All the while, scarcity is still felt by all, fueling the hoarding compulsion. Eventually, it becomes a habit, and ingrained in the market. After getting up each Tuesday, every week, for a year, to buy a brick of 22LR at Walmart, who's to say that bored retiree worried about his ammo supply won't keep buying another brick each week for another month? Two months? Another year? Especially considering he probably doesn't have a business plan for managing his ammo holdings rationally. I don't anticipate a great "dumping of hoarded ammo at a loss" when peoples' taxes come due; but I do expect we'll begin see some enormous estate sales in a few years.
I would love to see a way to add up all the 22LR actually
sold on Gunbroker each week. I have a theory; that the scalpers so many are blaming are but a teensy-tiny part of the market, and the overwhelming majority of 22LR is simply being stored, while at the same time more than ever is being shot up faster than ever.
Congratulations! You've nailed the reason why Walmart chooses to ration underpriced goods rather than respond to market forces (and let's not pretend that Walmart doesn't respond to market forces on
every other item they sell by procuring it as cheaply as possible, and then selling it for a profit). This scam is an easy way to convert demand into multiplied customers instead of merely elevated individual purchases. And all the while the customers are convinced it's for their own benefit
The panic would have long since passed if both shooters with stockpiles and opportunists had been priced-out of the market for a month or two after the AWB/UBC failed. Instead, we try to "spread the demand shock around" and end up with a self-sustaining chain reaction of survival instincts driving infinite demand.
TCB