Which I would choose depends largely on what I envision the SHTF to be. All are not created equal.
Some folks will call a mugging a SHTF. That's not a SHTF. That's life.
Then on the other end of the spectrum we have TEOTWAWKI (the end of the world as we know it) where we all live like road warrior and fight off bands of mutant zombie squirrels and bandits wearing football shoulderpads with spikes on them.
More realistic to me are natural disaster scenerios where you have a brief to slightly protracted period of societal and civil unrest. For that, I only have experience with Katrina to draw from. And even in that experience, it is hardly encompassing. A snow storm in CO or fires in CA or floods in the NW are dramatically different situations with different needs.
So, down to the rifles -- from my perspective.
Both are battle proven. Both have shown they can do the job required of them.
Pros to the AK:
Reliable: No one can deny that an AK is a very reliable platform.
More compact: In a Katrina-like situation, that mattered. My rifle wasn't on me all the time. It was in my jeep most of the time. You just simply can't do what you need to do every day with a rifle hanging on your shoulder. And you don't want to leave it out and unattended while you are getting through the day.
Lighter: Believe me, that makes a difference. It is hard enough to get through one of those things without having bricks tied to you. Lighter is good.
Able to carry more ammunition: It makes a difference, but not in a way that you may think. Likely, you will never fire the rifle-- however, 7.62x39 is lighter and you can slap a 30 round magazine in the rifle. So for all practical purposes, you can have 50% more firepower available for the same weight. Likely, you won't have extra magazines in a tactical vest while you are working on getting the tree out of your Master Bedroom.
Cons to the AK:
Accuracy: Some AKs are not known for accuracy. For most practical purposes, they are plenty accurate enough. And then there are the Saiga AKs which have very good accuracy for that particular platform. In a scenerio where I am having to hunt to survive-- such as a Max Max world gone to hell, I'd rather have something else for a longer shot and better accuracy.
Knockdown and range: .308 winchester will beat 7.62x39 in both respects hands down. If you need that kind of range and knockdown, the AK will be lacking.
Reaction from others: I don't like it, and I don't think it is right, but the uninformed public gets tends to get the willies from seeing an AK. Oddly enough, they seem to handle seeing an M4 or AR-15 much better. I suppose that is because they see the good guys on the news with them. And we wonder how much we are affected by the news.... but I digress....
Overpenetration: A concern with any rifle if you live in an urban or suburban setting.
Pros to the M1A:
Reliable: Its battle proven. Likely, nothing you experience will top that.
Accuracy: My understanding of the M1A is that it is a very accurate platform. As noted above, if you need that kind of accuracy for hunting, this is the rifle.
Knockdown and range: Again, 308 winchester trumps 7.62x39 any day in these departments.
Reaction from others: The M1A is likely not to get a rise out of anyone other than a rabid anti-gunner. It looks every PC if one just glances at it. For those of you that think that what others think doesn't matter...you couldn't be more wrong. Anything that has the potential to draw more issues down on you is a bad thing. You have enough to worry about.
Cons to M1A:
Weight: Its a heavy rifle. That matters.
Size: This matters more than weight since you will likely be pulling it out of vehicles a lot.
Ammunition weight: As noted above.
Overpenetration: A concern for any rifle if you live in an urban or suburban setting.
Now.... brass tacks time.
We spend WAY too much time worrying about what particular firearm to get for a SHTF. Any battle-proven, fairly accurate one will do most likely.
For the most practical matters of a SHTF, you need to worry about what handgun to get. From my experiences with 8 weeks of Katrina's aftermath, my rifles stayed in the vehicle or in the house 98% of the time. My handgun was strapped to my waist 24/7.
You won't do in a store to pay for fuel carrying an AK or M1A-- but you will have a handgun under your shirt.
You won't be in the yard operating a chainsaw while having an M1A over your shoulder-- but you will have a Glock in a waist holster.
It is unlikely that you can manipulate an AK up to the window of your vehicle in the event of someone trying to carjack you. You can get a 1911 up rather quickly.
I think you see my point...
Now.. beyond the actual firearm...
it is way more important to stack ammunition deep. In the aftermath of Katrina, it was impossible to purchase ammunition or firearms due to executive order. If you don't have ammunition, you are screwed. And if you are envisioning a Mad Max world, you better have all the ammuntion on hand that you think you will EVER need. Wal-Mart won't be opening anytime soon. And even if it did, I wonder if the factories making ammunition are operating?
Now beyond firearms and ammunition....
If SHTF in a natural disaster setting, there are about 22,315 things you need to worry about more important than firearms. It is a good idea to REALISTICALLY evaluate the risks of living in your particular area and work through a needs analysis for you and your family in that situation. For instance, I really don't concern myself with Volcanic Eruption SHTF. I don't really worry about winter storms. If I lived on the side of Mt. Hood, I may have different needs. But they really don't worry about hurricanes, and I do.
Once you cover those bases, you can really start looking more in-depth at security.
Guns won't save you if you are already dead. On the flip side, once you have supplies, you become a target to others.
And Finally....
The single most important preparation of SHTF is community. Chances are you forgot something critical. Chances are that you did not envision everything coming at you. Likely, your neighbors screwed up, too. Because you are thinking about these things, it is likely that you are more prepared than those neighbors--- but you still need them.
Through community, strength is found. Through community, survivability is easier. And the bonds that are formed through such a thing are invaluable LONG after the SHTF has passed.
As a person that is considering these things, you have the potential to be an organizer and leader in your community. By this, I mean you have the opportunity to help alleviate the suffering of not just yourself, but the community you live in. That is a worthy cause. Many will not know where to begin, perhaps you can help assess the situation and organize efforts to dig or cut out.
Or it may be organizing the distributing of food. We ate like kings for a week after Katrina because we were cooking everything we had in the freezers before it ruined. Others did the same. At one point, you couldn't give food away in our community. It got dramatically different in Week 2-8.
But there ARE people who could have used that excess food early on.
I hope I am making my points well enough.
There is so much to do. But the good news is that you find something inside of everyone that is able to meet those challenges. If you are looking at SHTF scenerios already, you are already an asset to your community, but you bear a greater responsibility to get it "right." Whether it be family, friends, or community, they need you-- even if they don't realize it now.
-- John
