Average shots fired in average SD scenario

[lksseven]

Now, before I get a hundred replies pointing out that there's no such thing as an average SD scenario and only an idiot would think there was, let me state that "I KNOW there's no such thing as an average SD scenario and only an idiot would think there was."

But surely there is some 'range of action' that is more common than another (for example, is a SD scenario of "2-4 shots fired" more common than a "city block long, running gun battle of 30 rounds"?)

I guess the question is, what is your imagined 'most likely threat', and does your 'solution' directly address that threat? In carrying a weapon for self defense, there is some inherent 'most likely' threat in your head or imagination that is the architect of planning a 'defense' for that 'most likely' potential future threat. And what is your 'most likely' threat scenario?

The reason I ask is because I've carried sporadically a lot of different guns, and over time have finally come to this position on what I should be carrying: My 'most likely' threat envisioned is a confrontation in a parking lot by one or two perps, or a robbery in a restaurant/public place where a hostage might be taken. My response is to carry a gun (Beretta Cheetah Model 85FS): 1) I will consistently carry; 2) that is deadly enough at close range to satisfy my calculus; and 3) that is accurate enough at 30-40' to shoot-with-intended-placement a gun-wielding perp from across a large room.

I don't carry a mega-capacity .40 or 9mm anymore because I don't think my most likely 2 or 3 threat scenarios will involve a need for massive fire volume, and because I have found that I won't consistently carry a gun that weighs 26 to 32 oz (not counting ammo weight, which is increasingly noticeable as it climbs into the double digits). And I don't carry a snub nose because I couldn't hit something 30' away with it (at least not the something I intended to hit). Not that there's anything wrong with carrying a hi capacity gun, or a big caliber snubby, if that solution best addresses your imagined 'most likely' threat scenario, AND YOU WILL CONSISTENTLY CARRY THAT SOLUTION.

So, what say you?

 

[jcramin]

From what I have heard other places. 3 - 3 - 3

3 shots in 3 seconds within 3 yards

I dont know how true that is, I am just repeating what I have heard.

Has anyone else heard this one ?

 

[harmonic]

Has anyone else heard this one ?

That's the consensus.

 

[CWL]

You will shoot as you train.

That's good and bad because if you train for 2 shots COM then stop to evaluate the target, then that is what you will do in SD situations (this got Mark Wilson killed at the Tyler Texas Courthouse shooting, and numerous LEOs who were trained to shoot/evaluate during a firefight rather than shooting to stop the attack).

While the 'average" may be around 3 rounds, this is probably not what you will do since you are obviously serious enough to want to study and train in firearms proficiency. "Average" does not affect an individual incident.

Don't let averages or singlemindedness affect your training. The only thing you should think about is how to keep shooting until the threat is no longer there. That means application of as many rounds as necessary.

For you a singlestack or a revolver should be enough if you train to hit what you shoot at.

 

[Larry E]

Yesterday a coroner's inquest was held on the shooting of a man here by two deputies of the local sheriff's department. They fired a total of 23 rounds, hit the guy 5 times with only one of those fatal. The "victim" was threatening family members with a gun, fired at the deputies, and had a blood alcohol content of 0.35%. It was dark, one deputy tried to use his flashlight, but discovered that he wasn't making hits so dropped the light after firing 5 or 6 shots which may have had something to do with the large number of rounds fired.

I carry a Ruger P345 with two spare mags for a total of 25 rounds. If I can't do what needs doing with that I may deserve what happens to me.

 

[Tirod]

Justice stats claim about 2.5 shots per incident, according to the Gunfacts I just downloaded and printed.

Our local LEO's got involved in a 30+ shot running gun battle a few Valetine's Days back, but that has been the biggest since Bonnie and Clyde. (Really.) And the final round was from a .223.

Most of the worst confrontations seem to be ended very shortly by well aimed fire from a "first responder with a gun," including off duty LEO, principal, etc. I agree, keep shooting until it's definitely stopped - but even nearsighted me should - I hope - recognize a BG doubled over in pain, or prostrate, as having reduced capacity.

Still waving a gun around and unresponsive? Still a lethal threat to me.

 

[mike7465]

In law enforcement it gets tricky. Most of the time the battles wind up falling into categories:
1) Stop: LEO pulls over someone who starts shooting. What happens most of the time is the LEO fires a whole clip while running for cover. He gets to cover reloads, calls for backup, checks on partner (if around,) then proceeds to order guy to drop it. Then shots are fired till guy dies, gives up, or they run out of ammo. Most of the time it is either: empty the clip in a burst, or spaces them out in bursts of two or three.
2) Hostage like: depends on the group. Can be one shot from a sniper, all the way to everyone firing a rounds into a house.
3) Firefight: short controlled bursts, goes till they run out of ammo, or guy is dead..
In the military it is very different. The norm is to just lay down fire till nothing is moving.
For guys on the street: seems to fall into lots of categories. Guys with training: as few as possible. Guys without training: Fire lots (spray and pray.) Depends on number of targets, cover, objective (kill a guy, get away, whatever.)
If you are asking for advice on training the best rules to follow are:
Learn your weapon inside and out.
Learn how to fire single, double and triple taps.
Learn how to keep your focus: narrow: on targets, and broad: situational awareness.
Fewer shots is better, unlike the army you don't have unlimited ammo.


My two cents, worth what you paid for.

 

[Wolfeye]

The drill I've heard about is the rule of 5's: hit a 5" plate 5 times within 5 seconds at a distance of 5 yards. I think I like the 3-3-3 rule better.

Something I wonder about is how to factor in that a huge number of violent incidents are avoided simply because the would-be victim produced a gun.

I live in Seattle, whose thugs could get their rears handed to them by thugs from any other city. I figure that whatever the SD scenario is, it will probably be against one or two assailants. I carry an SP101 loaded with .357 low-recoil Federals, and one speedloader.

The only time I've ever felt really threatened was when I came across a pack of wild dogs while hiking in Alaska. I wished I'd had a bigger gun that held more bullets, but luckily that pack kept on going without paying me any attention.

 

[GEM]

You need to know the distributional shape and at what end of the tail probability you will make the cut.

The actual mean doesn't do you so much good.

The average DGU has no shots fired.

Then you need to go to incidents with shots fired. Then you need to decide if you want to face the extremes.

IMHO - worth what you paid for it - something like a Glock 19 and one extra mag probably handles up to most of the extremes of civilian risk - 99% cut. So you have a one percent chance that you didn't have enough gun or ammo.

A Glock 26 and an extra mag will probably get you up to the 90-95th percentile of shooting incidents. So you have a 5 to 10 percent chance that you didn't have enough gun or ammo.

A J frame and 5 rounds (totally pulled from my butt here) probably will cover up to the 75th percentile of shooting incidents. 25 percent chance of not having enough ammo.

I want to repeat that I have looked for good data on civilian shootings and shots fired, etc. and we don't have tight statistics or summaries. Thus, I suggest this with a giant grain of salt.

 

[Macpherson]

I've had this question as well and, given my own circumstances, the conclusion I reached was to keep on firing until the threat is gone. I have no idea what shape that will take in a real world situation, but I'm not defending myself or anyone else by firing a couple shots, stopping to evaluate and then getting killed because my first two shots missed.

 

[ronto]

Consistantly hitting COM at 10 yards with a snubby is not that difficult...That is, if you put in the effort to practice at it with your carry ammo.

 

[GigaBuist]

A J frame and 5 rounds (totally pulled from my butt here)

Interesting carry method.

 

[Claude Clay]

when TSHTF most, not all, but the majority will not raise to the occasion--they will default to their training. the more you train; the more diverse your training: the better your chances of surviving by doing more of the right things.
if you can train out what doesn't work, you will in effect be practicing what does. train enough and it will be there for you when you need it.
the rule of 3 sounds proper--IF the event degrades to actual gunplay (sic)

 

[BADUNAME37]

Well, if I'm using my 500 Magnum, I'm hoping it will be one shot, then time to put in the ear plugs before the next shot.

Or, I'll just use my 12 gauge pump.

 

[GEM]

Haha - I have seen X-rays of a guy going to jail who had a NAA Mini up his rectum for later use. Perhaps, I have should have suggested that as more pleasant

There were also enormously fat guys who hid guns in the stinking flopped over fat folds of the nether regions of their body.

Talk about a Freudian slip.

 

[Kind of Blued]

Being downtown every day recently, crowded around tons of people, ~15% of them crazy and 10-15 feet away, I realized I need to practice my draw or think up a different carry method.

I'm thinking about sewing a holster into my coat pocket for winter.

 

[Double Naught Spy]

So, what say you?

I figure that my safety and the safety of my family should not be downgraded to what I perceived to be the expected possible scenario as carrying extra ammo, light, knife, etc. isn't a significant encumberance.

The slight daily inconvenience I might might endure is far outweighed by the lifelong consequences of not being prepared.

 

[Defensory]

I don't bet my life on "averages", and I darn sure wouldn't count on a weak round like the .380 in a life or death situation.

Billy Jackson of Louisville, Kentucky needed 11 rounds of .40 cal from his semi-auto to subdue two armed robbers. Even though hit multiple times at close range, one robber was still able to run outside before collapsing.

If a person's carry piece is a single stack, they should carry two extra magazines. If it's a double stack, they should carry at least one extra magazine, and there's certainly nothing wrong with carrying two.

 

[Treo]

I read a story on the internet ( for what that's worth) of a BG who was shot through the heart W/ a Black Talon .45 ACP, dude was able to run 40 yards before dying.

That said, the two SD situations I've been in were both resolved W/ no shots fired.

I generally carry a CZ75B W/ 1 extra mag I quess I'm used to it because I don't notice the weight and I carry it consistantly. The only time a carry a different gun is when concealment is of primary importance, then I carry a CZ 2075

 

[contenderman]

I've seen a couple different sets of "stats" and each conveys the same message ... very close range, very short time, few shots fired. Myself I use a general statement of: "Less that 5 yards, Less than 5 seconds, Less than 5 shots. And many of the drills that I put on in my monthly "shoots" are built around that premise, with variations in time, distance and shots fired.

As for "carry" I have different pistols for different situations, but regardless of the gun carried I also carry 1 reload. In a situation where I feel there could be a high potential for a prolonged exchange I use the "New York" reload (which is a second gun) And to this day, my favorite is from my deputy days (backup/ off-duty) a S&W Model 60.

 

[lksseven]

Defensory,

I appreciate your input. But I feel compelled to point out:
- that you're not responding to my post.
- you are absolutely betting your life on 'averages' every day. So is everyone else. The difference is in the different hedges to that 'bet on the average'.
- you're arguing from an extreme position, which isn't really productive for the vast majority of people that aren't/won't be in an extreme position. Someone else mentioned a gun battle with 30+ rounds fired. So does that then become the minimum anticipated scenario to keep someone from being labeled underpowered and irresponsible? I hardly think so.

If your calculus demands that you carry a .40 or .45 with 40 rounds of spare ammo, AND you consistently and faithfully carry it, then more power to you. But I think it's an overreach to 'impose' your calculus on anyone else. The point of my post was to try to get some people to really THINK about/analyze THEIR own individual calculus (what scenarios/situations am I usually in? where do I live? how adamant about carrying am I really? At what point of size and weight (of my weapon) will I subconsciously find excuses to not carry? What do I shoot well? Do I need all three fingers on the grip, or can I shoot well with just two fingers on the grip? Does a two finger grip (for me) allow the gun to wander with multiple rapid fire shots? Where do I prefer to carry (hip, shoulder, ankle, small of back, purse)?

It's my opinion that too many casual gun people jump on a chat board, and are immediately drawn to the extreme example (think new car showroom where every guy is drawn to the 2-seat sportscar with 600hp - "Look, Honey, it'll accelerate from 80 to 130mph in 3.4 seconds!!" ... maybe a few people need a car with that kind of performance (fine!) but probably most people don't - 'evaluate your unique specific needs/abilities/tendencies') , and then jump to the conclusion that they have to have an extreme solution, so they buy some big ass pistol, and after a few days of lugging it around, it stays in the safe/bag/car 24/7. I was trying to get people to ask questions of themselves in the correct order - 1) what is the maximum gun size/weight that I will tolerate and consistently carry? 2) within that range of options, what solution (caliber, barrel length, # of rounds, ergonomics, how I carry, my strength and eyesight and environment) will protect me in the broadest measure of my anticipated threat scenarios?
If the answers to those 2 questions are a large caliber, double stack semi-auto with 4 extra clips, then that's great! But I suspect that that solution isn't right for a whole bunch of folks, because they will end up not carrying that much weight around with them, therefore it's the wrong solution for them.

Not trying to pick a fight (I'm apparently woefully undergunned!) or even win an argument. Just putting words to my previous thinking process and progression from what solution attracted me initially, to the working solution I arrived at some years later, and how I got there. I thought it might get some other people to stop and reevaluate their own personal equation.

 

[WC145]

3-5 shots
in
3-5 seconds
at
3-5 feet

 

[loneviking]

Most of your average encounters, I suspect, would be only one or two bad guys and six rounds should be enough.

But, if I'm out at night in a town known for trouble, I would be packing a lot of extra ammo or two guns. There's been at least six, armed robberies in Reno by gangs of three to four armed men within the last four months. One group even took down a 'Sak-N-Save', shooting one manager, stabbing another and robbing everyone in the store at gunpoint. These have been taking place after dark, so it gives you a clue as to when extra firepower may be needed.

 

[lksseven]

LoneViking - Exactly!!!

LoneViking,

YES! You get it! Define the problem (and its parameters) correctly, then craft the solution that solves THAT problem, not someone else's problem.

Perfect anecdote. Thank you.

BTW, in your scenario, I'd change my solution at night, too (which might sometimes include 'just not going out at night, or at least some nights').

 

[mikitsubizunizu]

I think the Average Joe is just going to be firing as much as possible in the direction of the badguy.

Sometimes even the most well trained forget their training when they really need it.