Mad,
I can't give you exact figures, but I'd suggest that the ambush scenario is infinitely more prevalent among "civilians", and there's good reason to use it with cops.
Police are (or should be) theoretically more attuned to the idea of violence presenting because violence is a semi-regular part of the job, either first-hand in personal arrest encounters, or second-hand in doing the mop up on calls where the complainant has been the victim of violence. Cops are trained to watch out for certain things both on approach and during contacts with the public in a number of situations. The average citizen who doesn't encounter violence in some form on a regular basis is much less likely to see the warning signs or perceive the potential for violence. It's the Cooper Color Code thing, to use a reference. Most "regular" people live much of their lives in White Mode, which is not a criticism, but merely pointing out that they are much more likely to be ambushed by carjackers, muggers, street punks, and so on. Even an elevated degree of situational awareness can't guarantee that you'll never be attacked suddenly, close in, and violently.
One of my old buddies at my last PD shortly after I retired suddenly found himself at the wrong end of a rifle in responding to a dispatched call one day. This was a veteran cop who'd started out his police career in the projects of Philadelphia before moving west to my state & getting hired on at my PD.
He was no rookie, he knew how to approach, he knew the risks involved in ANY call, no matter how innocuous it may sound up front, and in a flash there he was looking down the bore of a bolt-action rifle inside five feet. Without getting into any analysis or criticism, he did make it through the encounter, but left the PD shortly after with recurring psychological problems.
My only point there is to illustrate that ambushes are very real, and if you prepare yourself at least to some degree, mentally & physically, to address the worst you've pretty much got yourself prepared to address the least. And, again, don't forget the situations that start out with a hands-on response and then escalate.
Dennis Tueller is a former career cop with the Salt Lake City PD who retired as a lieutenant. For many years he was a firearms instructor both there and for Jeff Cooper at Gunsite. Since leaving SLC, Dennis has worked in contract training, and currently travels as an instructor for Glock. Dennis came up with the Tueller Drill some time ago to demonstrate the actual threat of a knife at what many people would not consider a threatening distance, and it's been a great eye-opener for most who go through it.
Ayoob produced one of his training films back in the mid 80s including the drill at a week-long session I attended here in Utah. Don't know if it's still available, but Dennis is shown on it discussing the drill, there's some footage of some of the guys going through it, and if you can scare up a copy, you can even see my back in one of the scenarios dealing with suicidal people-with-guns.
Dennis also used to teach classes locally here, and they were always very professionally done.
Yes, there are many factors involved in a violent encounter beyond just the loaded chamber issue. That's quite obvious. One thought to consider in saying that is the fact that you have little to no control over a number of variables when violence presents. You don't choose the time, you don't choose the place, you don't choose the direction, you don't choose the weather, you don't choose the lighting, you don't choose the number of assailants, you don't choose the speed, you don't choose the type of violence, you don't choose the other weapons involved, you don't choose the number of other people around you, you don't choose the surroundings or the type of terrain you have to work in. You do, however, have the ability to control whether your defensive tool is ready for instant action, and if you choose not to carry it so, then again it boils down to you and your choice.
If you want to wait literally until somebody's five feet away to fully arm your weapon, that's up to you.
One scenario that comes forcefully to mind is the carjacking. Do you honestly think that while sitting in the confines of your car, belted or not, you're going to be able to chamber a round before you get yourself shot?
If your response is that it'll never happen to you, then we're outside the bounds of discussion, since you could equally apply that reasoning to any other form of personal violence.
Worst Case Scenario is a major principle in preparing for any critical incident, and it's used every day in government, private sector business, and personal lives. The core of WCS is that if you prepare for the worst (within your abilities and with due consideration of the probabilities), then you'll be better set up to handle most events from there on down.
I'm assuming you're refering to the Tueller Drill when you say somebody would get shot if it was tried with you.
Maybe, maybe not, and while not questioning your personal abilities, remember that the Tueller Drill is conducted in a sterile environment with both sides fully aware and prepared to move.
Essentially, from 7 yards (21 feet) your attacker can have steel in your guts in less than 3 seconds (and as little as 1.5 seconds, depending on size, condition, and motivation). The drill starts with the "cop's" hands shoulder high.
Remember, this is with an exposed duty holster, not a concealed rig.
In such a scenario, you have to factor in both mental and physical reaction times. Your mind has to process the fact that you're under attack, then it has to mobilize your body to react. That can eat up 1-5 seconds right there, depending on how fast your mind processes the picture.
In real life, you're not likely to be standing there waiting for the whistle to blow. You may be in very familiar territory (which often instills a sense of "can't happen here"), doing things you've done a thousand times before with no negative results, in broad daylight, and carrying a bag, a briefcase, pushing a shopping cart, talking to your wife, on your cell phone, and so on. There are many things that cut into your reaction time, and Tueller developed his drill just to illustrate how far away a man with a knife can be a threat. It wasn't intended to specifically train for such an ocurrance, nor was it intended to set a milestone for speed in getting out of the holster.
Main point being that adding the complicating process of getting a round chambered to a violent encounter may require time (in the open) and/or freedom of movement (carjacking) that you simply won't have.
Carrying in whichever condition certainly is a matter of choice.
Previous statements still stand.
Denis
