Going back to normal

[greyling22]

Keep in mind that not only has demand increased, and inflation skyrocketing, and supply chain issues occurred, but also competition has decreased. There has been a lot of industry consolidation. Vista gobbled up Remington, as you know, so there are only 2 domestic primer makers. Hogdon has bought up everybody but alliant and shooters world, and there are only a couple actual powder manufacturers above the distributors. Imports have dried up because of politics, and finally there is a war going on that is consuming ammo and causing even uninvolved armies to increase training and stockpiles.

In short, we're boned.

 

[JDeere]

When my LGS is selling primers for $65 a brick something does not add up. The BB stores are selling at $85 and up? His powder prices are up there but they were always kind of high. There is an election on the horizon so look for another run soon. ymmv

 

[ballman6711]

When my LGS is selling primers for $65 a brick something does not add up. The BB stores are selling at $85 and up? His powder prices are up there but they were always kind of high. There is an election on the horizon so look for another run soon. ymmv

He could be selling at a small profit, at cost, or even below cost in order to generate more traffic. More traffic usually means more sales. Or he could be selling primers he's had in stock for a while. There's really no way of knowing unless he shares his business plan/strategy and his cost for product.

I'm glad that components are showing up again. I wish they cost less, but it is what it is. Just like anything else, I'll buy it if I need it regardless of the price. With everything that's going on in the world right now we just don't know what the "new" normal is, or what it will be in the future.

chris

 

[jmorris]

I wonder how many of these types of threads will have to exist before mods come in a shut them down immediately. They're not about handloading, they're about economics and the economics doesn't change so they are pointless.

If everyone had a primer for every thread started during panic years, no one would ever need to buy any and the threads wouldn’t need to exist, that’s for sure.

It’s hard to believe there are folks out there that don’t get it but maybe they were teaching about how entitled they were that day in school vs the stuff we learned back when we were kids.

 

[Buzznrose]

“Normal”…new “normal”…old “normal”

Commodity prices reflect the overall economy and politics. Ammo is made from commodities and enhanced by political pressure. I live in the San Antonio area. I bought gas for our car this morning for $3.59 a gallon. If I’d have filled my pickup, diesel was $4.98 a gallon. Hard to leave a grocery store feeling like prices are dropping.

I think demand for ammo is easing while production is still working hard to catch up, and that will help. But labor costs for 3 shifts won’t drop.

So I think availability is easing slowly, and the glut for the overproduced calibers will cause prices to moderate, but what happens when production shifts to the higher margin calibers like hunting calibers that are still hard to find?

No, this mess will have a series of ebbs and flows before it settles down.

I agree that we should never say never. With the right leadership and mindset, we could see energy prices come back down…we have oceans of oil under our lands and shores. But the political will needs to be there. Today, we cannot build a new petrol refinery and drilling leases on federal lands are reduced. Until we can get energy right, we are hamstrung trying to get the rest of the economy on track.

I saw a shirt the other day on the Internet that I almost ordered. I still may. The message read:

“Normal isn’t coming back, but Jesus is!”

Kinda what I’ve been thinking for a while.

 

[EricBu]

I don't know if 100.00 primers are the new norm.......but > 50.00 certainly is, and maybe >75.00. This cycle is certainly not settling out like the previous shortage cycles I've lived through since I started down this reloading journey 35 years ago. Too many hits back to back, plus the unrest and uncertainty is driving new gun sales, US government barriers to market entrance by primer or powder manufactures, and now rising energy costs. I still think there is maybe a 10% to 20% upside in component costs coming down the pipe this year.

Then, even when things start coming back, Vista is in a position to taper production and drive the market price. No reason to run 3 shifts to produce primers, when you can cut manpower, run a single shift, move most of the product to your own ammo assembly lines, and keep supply just above demand and keep prices where they are. This has two positive impacts for Vista...they maintain the same profit with reduced expenses, AND they inflate the cost of components for small and boutique ammunition makers that compete with Vista's ammunition products. It makes no business sense for Vista to keep production this high as supply starts catching up.

 

[jmorris]

“Normal”…new “normal”…old “normal”

Commodity prices reflect the overall economy and politics. Ammo is made from commodities and enhanced by political pressure.

“New Normal” is the term they want everyone to repeat, slogans like that are intended to deflect blame from those responsible for the elevated prices and have people say “well, that’s just the way it’s going to be from now on.” You know, like the 33% that approve of our current POTUS, job performance.

Like Obama calling everyone that said $2 a gallon gas was possible, a liar. As long as he was in power and making the decisions that drove prices, he was correct.

This cycle is certainly not settling out like the previous shortage cycles I've lived through since I started down this reloading journey 35 years ago.

Did any of them have trillions of unearned dollars handed out to suck up everything in sight without any pain in the wallet? Not that I know of. It’s well documented fact that people spend more money if purchasing with a credit card than if they pay with cash. Counting those dollars out hurts more than swiping a card. How easy does that make people waste money that they didn’t have to do anything for?

 

[Axis II]

I stopped in the LGS here last week. Their 22 LR ammo was very thin. A month or so ago they had decent stock. Ammo overall, they reduced the shelving by a third.

I laughed last night when 2 wal-marts had a full shelf of 22lr for $23-325rds and Cabelas and other chain store have nothing.

 

[Walkalong]

I wonder how many of these types of threads will have to exist before mods come in a shut them down immediately. They're not about handloading, they're about economics and the economics doesn't change so they are pointless.

Considered it, figured I’d give it a chance.