Gun, Ammo Market Predictions

[MP3Mogul]

Wow, many seem to not have seen new shooters at their ranges.

My free US Park Service range, since the election has been so packed I haven't been able to shoot there. I gave up going there a month ago and have went other places. I did walk the shooting line and saw all walks of shooters, mostly inexperienced looking yuppie type people with their first handguns.

 

[Deavis]

In my fifty years on the planet,I have never seen ammo prices go down.I seriously doubt they'll do more than level out.

Sure, but did you adjust for inflation? Steady cost as time progresses is a boon to consumers as long as there is no deflation. The prices may have always gone up but the actual cost in today's dollars has been trending lower for years. Handgunner had an article on that very subject not long ago.

 

[Titan6]

Ammo prices declined seriously late 90s to about four years ago when they began rising steeply again. This is bubble only if you don't understand the numbers on inflation. Look closely and you will see what I mean. Ammo is only slighly ahead of real inflation. Adjust it for the demand increase and it is right on track.

Given the goverment decision to destroy surplus brass I would not worry too much abouammo makers.

 

[Sixtigers]

Of course one doesn't see many new shooters! Have you not noticed the cost of ammunition lately?

I shoot .22 a whole lot more now.

...and I'm one of those people that saw the writing on the wall, and am trying to assemble my AR15 OLL while I can. I promise this has absolutely nothing to do with resale value.

My wife and I look out at the way the gun market is right now, and breathe a sigh of relief that we started putting ammo away two years ago. I don't blame my brethren one single bit for buying up what they can now, when they can. I also believe in supply vs. demand, and think it will slow down--but as another poster said, I've never seen bullet prices drop.

Yes, many people are hoarding now. I don't begrudge them that, not one little bit. I see people finally waking up to the fact that if they don't get it now, they may not get any later.

Should our message to others be "Don't worry about this--this is only a bubble! Wait and get ammunition later...It'll be much cheaper in a year or two."? I don't see any fistfights, or riots, or burning Walmarts. People are disgruntled, but people are always disgruntled. The fact is, in a hoarding situation--something is driving the demand. Maybe that should be our concern, and not the hoarding itself. Sound familiar? Maybe a little like a gun control argument, where guns are blamed for crime?

Just my $.02. YMMV.

Respectfully, Sixtigers

 

[MagnumDweeb]

Tons of new shooters, I've been wearing my NRA trainer shirt when I go and I'm getting new clients like you wouldn't believe, I've got a hundred on a waiting list and fifty plus of them have paid downpayments, I do a ten person class once a week and then five of us go to the range and the others head up with me on another go later in the week when I have my regurlarly scheduled visits to the range. I've got to start cutting back on my personal goes so I don't get lead poisoning, I'm already wearing protective breathing gear and latex gloves (I look quite odd).

I offer one personal instruction, after they take my class, included with the fee. So they do the class and then if they are newbs they can elect to come with me to the range on a prescheduled day when I normally go and learn to shoot their new gun after I inspect it. I've been doing so many field inspections, timing inspections, and bore checks. On the plus side I've shot so many different guns it's amazing. I didn't realize how much I like Sigs (so many young guys buying them at way over MSRP) and may one day get one of the less expensive modern models.

I stocked up like crazy for nearly two years. What I am seeing that I'm liking is the falling price of AK parts kits, but I already have three assembled shooters (TAPCO FCGs). Once my disposable coffers get refilled over a grand I'll buy up another k of .308 nato and get a .30 BMG parts kit and do a build on that.

 

[gego]

Obama elected and people buy out of fear of restrictions on 2nd amendment.

Then economy gets worse and people buy out of fear of increased crime, riots, social disorder.

If it keeps up, I think the third reason will be anticipation of civil war. We shall see.

 

[Isher]

Ammo, oil.

Both commodities.

Think about it.

isher

 

[john .708]

7mm short mag

i am new to this site today and havent made any contacts, what i would like to know is why 7mm short mags never gained the poularity of the 300wsm or evev the 270wsm? was it an accuracy problem/ they always seem to be for sale much cheaper than the 300wsms

 

[earlthegoat2]

I think you will take not that the firearms manufacturers are not scaling up production because they know the bottom is going to fall out. They are not going to invest in expansion when they know everything is going to cool off so they wont be stuck with dead machinery and end up where the rest of the country is.

 

[ThrottleJockey]

I have noticed the range near my home has been VERY crowded for the last 6 months. At 7am there is a line at the door nearly every day. I don't even bother anymore, the last few times I went shooting, I just drove 4 hours each way to my cabin, cheaper too. I will not be doing that much anymore though, as my ammo is running way lower than I am comfortable with(I actually have never been comfy with the amount I have on hand), and I cannot get replacement supplies.

 

[cmccmc]

thx

"Hey Ben... you live like right down the road from me. Ive never heard of your store. Fill us in Ill come by to visit."

Hey, if you're with SC Grassroots you are doing the Lord's work and I thank you from the bottom of my heart!

Come by the shop in Pageland any time.

 

[MountainBear]

Then economy gets worse and people buy out of fear of increased crime, riots, social disorder.

If it keeps up, I think the third reason will be anticipation of civil war. We shall see.

You know, I'll defend everyones right to have their own viewpoints, but sometimes the paranoia in our little sub-culture is obnoxious. If thats what you think will happen, more power to you (not saying the poster of this is paranoid, no offense meant), but really. Is it possible that we will lose a portion of our second amendment rights? Of course, yes. Is it probable? Arguable either way. Is a civil war likely when we all have to grab our guns and our B.O.B.'s and head for the hills? No. And honestly I won't waste time arguing with someone who thinks so. I realize that someday our society (USA) will decay and fall apart like all other societies in the history of civilization, but no one on these boards today will be alive to see it, and our children probably won't either.

And all I'm saying is that the paranoia hording is bad for us. So yes, in response to some replies, I do begrudge those of you doing it. Not only are you making it difficult for those of us who just want a box or two here and there to go shoot, but you are making it difficult to recruit and more importantly, train, new shooters. A gun without ammo is like a new toy without batteries. And I don't know about you, but I can go to my Sportsman's Whorehouse right now and buy several really cool handguns and rifles, but I am lucky if I could find ammo for it anywhere in town. And this is not simply the supplier's fault. Production capabilities are not unlimited.

Okay, I'm off my soap box for the night. No offense meant to anyone. Like I said, I respect your right to have whatever view you want, no matter how wrong you are.

 

[BHP FAN]

MountainBear,I respect your right not to hoard.That's more ammo for me...

 

[MountainBear]

You have a right to hoard ammo, BHP Fan, but like I said before, you and those like you are hurting our community as a whole.

By the way for those of you having the same issue I have, the proper spelling of this word for our purposed here is hoard, not horde (somedays I'm better than others, today may not be one of my days)

 

[Sixtigers]

Thanks MountainBear--my post looked a little "off" to me, and that's what it was. I hate appearing illiterate (regardless of the truth)!

 

[wally]

You know, I haven't seen that many extra people at the range since this whole thing kicked off.

Not true here! Ours is a private club, memberships are way up, at odd times when it used to be just me and one or two others, its now ten or twelve shooters. The Women's Saturday class had 40 show up last month, pushing the limits of what could be handled.

--wally.

 

[gego]

MountainBear

Is a civil war likely when we all have to grab our guns and our B.O.B.'s and head for the hills? No. And honestly I won't waste time arguing with someone who thinks so. I realize that someday our society (USA) will decay and fall apart like all other societies in the history of civilization, but no one on these boards today will be alive to see it, and our children probably won't either.

I am not sure about the wisdom of a B.O.B. and heading for the hills, but I think the probability of civil war in gaining strength. Back in the 1990's a fellow by the name of Thomas Chittum wrote, "Civil War Two, The Coming Breakup of America". He makes some convincing arguments that we will see ethnic based civil war.

http://www.resist.com/CWII.pdf

Also a book by the title, "The Fourth Turning" gives a high probability to civil war or WWIII about 2020 in response to the crisis period we are now entering. The authors analyze repeating patterns in history and point out that 1776 (American Revolution), 1861 (Civil War), 1941 (WWII) and 2020 are similar points in history that tested or will test the survival of American as a nation.

Plus if you do some serious research into the decline in energy available to fuel our industrial age, you can't help but conclude that we face economic contraction for as far into the future as one can see. I think soon enough the pain of going along with the current political system of plunder and control will far exceed the pain of civil war, and nature will take her course.

This is hardly paranoia on my part, but rather is a conclusion based on research and analysis, both of others and my own.

 

[Titan6]

The amount of whining and crying in this thread is getting really obnoxious. In fact the weeping and wailing on this whole subject is starting to sound like a bizzare ACORN meeting.

Reality check time:

- Ammo prices have risen steadily and supply was getting tight well before Obama was elected. If you were a regular shooter then and you couldn't see what was happening then you don't have to look far to point fingers. You should have done something about it then.

- If you are a new shooter who is getting into shooting out of panic and fear well: tough. The last guy to the bar has to work three times as hard to find a date. Not my problem if you were throwing away your money on some useless gadget, eating out three times a week or something else equally pointless. If you really care get involved and do something about it instead of whining on internet forums about how unfair you think your life is.

Time to grow up, deal with it and move on I say.

 

[MountainBear]

This is hardly paranoia on my part, but rather is a conclusion based on research and analysis, both of others and my own.

I guess the road to hell is paved with good intentions and research.

Look, I don't discount its possibility, I discount its likelihood, and more importantly, seeing as this is a firearms forum, not a survivalist, SHTF, forum, I am playing on the hoarding going on. It seems that we get into self-perpetuated spirals of hoarding and then the bubble bursts and we are left with a mess.

Case in point (using food and other commodities as well as ammo, to address the comment made about my disposable investment comment earlier). Prior to the turn of this last century (you all remember Y2K, right?), everyone, including some respected academics were telling us that the computers COULD fail with the number turnover. This was exacerbated by the people who started hording food, emergency supplies, as well as guns and ammo. When we all were woken up on January 1st, 2000 by our digital alarm clocks, an entire segment of society realized that much of their preparation had been for not. But hey we all need 3 years worth of dehydrated meals, a bug out bag, and ar-15's with 1000 round load outs for each member of our family, right?

I am not saying that being prepared is a bad thing, its not. For you, in your own bubble that consitutes your universe, worse case (or best case, depending on your viewpoint) nothing materializes and you have a buttload of ammo to go shoot up. Sounds like fun.

But what I am saying and tying it back to the topic of this thread, is to look beyond your little bubble at the greater good and continued health of our community as a whole.

I would never begrudge someone the right to stockpile a bit of ammo. But where my outrage comes from is those of you who are stockpiling to take advantage of future market changes. Yeah, great. If the price of ammo goes up to 200$ for a box of 50 .223 rounds, you made a hell of an investment. But step back and try to imagine how many new shooters didn't get the chance to get into shooting because they couldn't find ammo (like I said, my town is EMPTY of ammo) or because WE (not all us, but a lot of this price hike is driven by us) drove the price to levels where average Joe didn't feel like he could get into shooting. Just remember that when you have to buy a whole new safe just for your stockpiled ammo. Or don't.

Everytime I try to jump down off my soapbox, someone responds and I am dragged reluctantly back onto it.

 

[MountainBear]

The amount of whining and crying in this thread is getting really obnoxious. In fact the weeping and wailing on this whole subject is starting to sound like a bizzare ACORN meeting.

Reality check time:

- Ammo prices have risen steadily and supply was getting tight well before Obama was elected. If you were a regular shooter then and you couldn't see what was happening then you don't have to look far to point fingers. You should have done something about it then.

- If you are a new shooter who is getting into shooting out of panic and fear well: tough. The last guy to the bar has to work three times as hard to find a date. Not my problem if you were throwing away your money on some useless gadget, eating out three times a week or something else equally pointless. If you really care get involved and do something about it instead of whining on internet forums about how unfair you think your life is.

Time to grow up, deal with it and move on I say.

With all due respects but your seemingly "I was here first and too bad for you" is not what our gun culture needs if it wonts to grow and survive.

And this thread is rapidly deteriorating, so on the thought it will get closed soon, I think I'm done with it.

 

[HGUNHNTR]

^ +1 No Kidding, Anyone in their right mind knew for a fact this would happen after the election, so why did you wait until now to go out and try to get a box of your favorite plinking fodder?

All of the whining is really getting annoying, if you are upset at those of us that had the foresight to bring supply up to level....too bad for you, move on.

 

[22-rimfire]

MountainBear's comment:

The bottom line is that people are hording. Its a self-perpetuating cycle. As people horde more, less is available, seeing less available makes them want to horde more.

That is about the way I see it too although I'm not sure what hoarding is. I have no problem with folks buying a lot of ammunition or firearms. It helps to keep the gears of industry (or a part of it) moving forward.

What's the definition of a ammunition hoarder? How about Gun hoarder? Nobody talks about hoarding guns. So are many of us turning into ammo accumulators? Accumulators turn into collectors once you discover what you really like.

Predictions: Ammunition and firearm sales will continue strong for the forseeable future (at least through 2010). But there will be more ammunition available in the next few months. I have already seen stores with good inventories. But sales will continue to be strong.

 

[MountainBear]

Sometimes its not foresight boys. Its financial ability to have taken advantage of it and the moral issues raised in doing it.

 

[Titan6]

"But what I am saying and tying it back to the topic of this thread, is to look beyond your little bubble at the greater good and continued health of our community as a whole."

Exactly what I am talking about. My personal property is not available for the "greater good" whatever the hell that is.

 

[Phydeaux642]

As a dealer, I am taking notes on who is helping me... and who isn't. Next year at my distributor shows and at the shot show... there will be answers to these questions.

Believe me, if you're not a big box store the manufacturers really don't care what you think. Sad, but true.