Gun, Ammo Market Predictions

[MountainBear]

Considering that lack of military brass. Assuming the price of ammo goes up when a lack of raw materials forces either a shortage or an upcharge for the available stock, this may not be all that bad (at least not for those of us NOT shooting EBR's). Since the brass has to be shredded and sold as scrap perhaps more brass will be available for ammunition manufacturers for new ammo (as opposed to re-manufactured ammo for EBR's).
Yes, I know this is optomistic, but hey, we can dream.

 

[Titan6]

Reb- I would fail miserably as a pol. I tell people what they don't want to hear (the truth) and it makes them feel bad inside. Nobody will vote for someone like that.

So far as choice on pres... Did you notice how before the election both candidates stood side by side on the podium and said how important one the "bailouts" was so important to saving the econmy? That was the begining of the end for one of those candidates. Still it was a lot closer than it should have been. If you look at the numbers a half million votes in the right places and we would have had a different president. Still the current choice has not been that bad. It is fear that is motivating things not the President.

Fixing the economy is a lot easier than they are making it sound. But it involves making tough choices and the government stepping and taking responsible action to correct the problems they created- In other words we are doomed. If you just look at the volatility that was created with just the Uptick Rule being removed you will see what I mean.

Bear- so far as the brass being destroyed. Well who really benefits from that?

 

[#shooter]

You know, I haven't seen that many extra people at the range since this whole thing kicked off.

I'm only guessing, but I'll bet the amount of ammo sold is way more than what's being used, and that pretty soon (hopefully) everyone who's stockpiling is finally going to have "plenty".

What are ranges like elsewhere? Is anyone seeing a proportionate rise in attendance or is it mainly "all buy, no try"?

That is a good observation and my answer is no. The ammo shelves are bare, then the EBRs were gone, then the AKs disappeared, and the pistols are now gone. heck, Romanian PSLs are selling for close to 1k . Gander mountain had very few pistols on display I had to ask the clerk if they are going to stop selling pistols, he laughed and said "yes, we are out of stock on many models."

Granted it is winter but there is hardly anyone shooting. I think people are stocking up.

 

[MountainBear]

Bear- so far as the brass being destroyed. Well who really benefits from that?

Well, since your quoting your science, let me quote some. Matter can be neither created NOR DETROYED. They're not destroying the brass, they are simply shredding it so it cannot be readily reloaded. Either way, while there will be less military brass on the market, there will be more scrap brass on the market. And whether ammo makers then buy that scrap to smelt into new cases, or other manufacturers buy it to make other products and more raw material is then available to ammo manufacturers.

I guess the point is that the brass is not being changed into a different elemental thing (its still brass), its just going to take an extra step to make it into cases.

 

[Brian Dale]

Bear, re-use is much more economically efficient than recycling.

 

[BlacklabelOP]

Don't feed the obvious troll

 

[glockman19]

The lack of ammo hsa caused me to enter the world of reloading. I bought LEE Classic hand load kits for all calibers I have. In addition I bought 2-Lee single stage presses and Lee Classic Die sets for all calibers too. I have plenty of brass, can get powder and bullets but...NO PRIMERS.

Everyone is out of PRIMERS. Midway, Natchezss, ammoman and other online merchants not to mention my local retailer is out too.

 

[ServiceSoon]

By removing all the safeguards to the markets.

Simple:

1- Repeal Glass-Stegal - allow otherwise risk adverse banks to engage in risky behavior

2- Force banks by court order to lend to people with bad/no credit at rates they can not afford making the housing market go crazy (gee, I wonder who was behind that.... Who did Freddie and Fannie give all their lobby dollars to anyway?)

3- Put in the Mark to Market Rule that forces evaluations of securities and derivatives based upon arbitrary measures that force their value down in most circumstances.

4- Loosen oversight of banks, credit agencies and mortgage companies.

5- And the final blow: Repeal the Uptick Rule which allows naked short selling and allows certain investors to force the markets down to make insane amounts of money. Exactly 90 days after the repeal of the Uptick Rule the market went into a tail spin from which it has never recovered. Why 90 days? Because that is the most common length of contracts.

Wonder why the market went up last week? Because they said they were going to put the Uptick Rule back into place. No more naked short selling. The same day.... ten minutes later... the markets began to rise.... and have kept rising. Coincidence? Un-huh, yeah.... coincidence is one of those things I do not believe in much.

Is it a conspiracy? doubtful They aren't smart enough to do that.

Incompetency? Greed? Stupidity? Take your pick, you decide...

What does this have to do with the thread, ammo, THR and gun rights? Everything... nothing. You decide.

All I know is that my country is now an extra $2,000,000,000,000 in debt and we have nothing, absolutely nothing to show for it. Except more social programs. Anybody else feel betrayed?

Good explanation. I agree with a lot of what you say above and that is the official explanation. Isn't that explanation kind of like blaming gun manufactures for homicides committed with firearms? Doesn’t blame rest on those who commit the crimes? If you acknowledge that the gov is at fault, you basically nod your head in approval that the gov should be increased in size and power. Is that what you want? Perhaps it is a circular argument.

 

[Ed Ames]

It isn't like blaming gun manufacturers. It is like blaming gun laws.

 

[Titan6]

I agree with a lot of what you say above and that is the official explanation.

There is no official explanation. Nobody has stood up and said "this is it, now we can fix it". As I said if this were accepted and explained then there would be compliticty involved. People would be found repsonsible, culpable.

It would not matter much anyway. Try to explain short selling to the average man on the street and get about 50% blank stares. Explain CDOs and derivatives and get 85% blank stares. Get into the really intricate instruments and even the people buying and selling them can't really tell you what they are about.

Isn't that explanation kind of like blaming gun manufactures for homicides committed with firearms? Doesn’t blame rest on those who commit the crimes?

No, not all. The crimes that were committed in the frame of say Madoff did not cause the collapse. Madoff could have kept his illegal Ponzi scheme going forever if the economy did not collapse. No illegal actions were taken to cause the collapse because the previously illegal actions were made legal. This is more like murder being made legal and then being surprised when the murder rate rises 1000% over night.

Maybe we can argue that certain people were immoral, amoral? But can a computer program be greedy? Not really. A computer program maximizes returns based upon a model.

If you acknowledge that the gov is at fault, you basically nod your head in approval that the gov should be increased in size and power.

Not true at all. The government would not change in size in power by reimposing these market restrictions and laws. Even while all of these laws were being removed the government steadily grew anyway.

Is that what you want?

What I want is the same as what most Americans want. A stable financial market based upon recongnizable risk to reward ratios that is difficult for individuals or corporations to manipulate. Kind of what we had from 1938 to 1998. Was it perfect? Hardly. But it worked.

 

[lamebums]

Guns? Up somewhat, I'd say 50% in the next year.

Ammo will continue to rise until it is unaffordable. End of story. There are too many possibilities. The recent order to shred all the surplus brass, a 500% ammo tax, and a ban on imported ammo are all possibilities.

Imagine having to pay $16.99 for a box of 20 Remington UMC 7.62x39. (That's the most recent price at Dick's Sporting Goods.) Or worse, 16.99 plus the 500% ammo tax.