Neverwinter
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- 1,049
If you take the time to read the entire post, you would notice that he's talking about your behavior and its influence on the market.
Gun, Ammo Market Predictions
- Thread starter cmccmc
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Titan6
member
I read the entire post. It is exactly what I am talking about.
Let me add smileys for emphasis...
My behavior is supposed to influence the market.
I should be able to buy whatever I can afford or people will lend me money to buy. This is called capitalism.
Now if you think we should be standing in lines to buy the government allowable amount of goods and services this is called socialism.
I like the first one better.
I should be allowed to pursue whatever activity I can afford even if you think it is not in my best interests; because I think it is in my best interests. Self interest is one of the ideas of capitalism.
If you think I should stop an activity because it is using resources and depriving others of the same activity that is socialism.
I still like the first one better.
This is starting to sound like "We had to destroy the village to save it". No one was crying about the "greater good" six years ago when ammo cheap and plentiful. You came to the party late. Too bad for you. You want more ammo write Remington and tell them you want them to build another factory. They will tell you to pound sand. So, better yet buy stock in Remington and start voting for the right board members. You won't go wrong in this economy buying stock in Remington or Freedom Group Inc.
I don't think the ammo market is going down significantly for at least a dozen years. I could be wrong but I was right about the last dozen so my track record is pretty good. At their investor conference call Remington felt the market would decline based on 3rd Quarter sales. The opposite happened so they took one in the shorts. If they don't get better we can always go find someone else to run the company.
But the way this thread is going you want someone else to solve your problem. Well guess what? I didn't create your problem. You did. So you man up and solve it and quit begging. It is pathetic.
Ed Ames
Member
Being able to buy whatever you want is not capitalism.
Capitalism is the idea that people who enable production by paying for its means are entitled to the benefit of that production. In other words, you buy a rifle, you are entitled to any game taken because of (with) that rifle. That is as opposed to labor value thories (the person who shoots the deer is entitled to it, regardless of who owned the gun/land/enabled the hunt), social value theories (the deer goes where it will do the social group the most good, usually by helping those who need it most) and democratic theory (the deer goes where the community decides it should go - maybe the same as socialism but maybe the community says it should go to the most popular or the hottest cause). A lot of people recently have been trying to redefine capitalism to mean stock investing (it can be, but only when the investments are done for income...stocks bought with the expectation that they will increase in value is speculation, not capitalism)
I have no problem with hoarding but it creates an unstable market. That is usually to the benefit of those with resources.
I think the OP's comments are about on target.
Capitalism is the idea that people who enable production by paying for its means are entitled to the benefit of that production. In other words, you buy a rifle, you are entitled to any game taken because of (with) that rifle. That is as opposed to labor value thories (the person who shoots the deer is entitled to it, regardless of who owned the gun/land/enabled the hunt), social value theories (the deer goes where it will do the social group the most good, usually by helping those who need it most) and democratic theory (the deer goes where the community decides it should go - maybe the same as socialism but maybe the community says it should go to the most popular or the hottest cause). A lot of people recently have been trying to redefine capitalism to mean stock investing (it can be, but only when the investments are done for income...stocks bought with the expectation that they will increase in value is speculation, not capitalism)
I have no problem with hoarding but it creates an unstable market. That is usually to the benefit of those with resources.
I think the OP's comments are about on target.
Titan6
member
Here let me give you the college version.
The dictionary disagrees with you. Besides I said whatever I could afford or people would lend me money to buy. Not whatever I want.
So instead of you trying to redefine capitalism why don't you say what is really true. We live in corrupted system of capitalism.
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Ed Ames
Member
College version, huh? I'd share the joke but why bother.
Instead I'll ask you to demonstrate where the two definitions (the one I offered and the one you quoted) are contradictory. Hint: they aren't. Next I'll ask you to show where "I can buy anything I want" is truly present in the passage you quoted.
You can buy what people will sell, and you can benefit from what you own. That's it.
Instead I'll ask you to demonstrate where the two definitions (the one I offered and the one you quoted) are contradictory. Hint: they aren't. Next I'll ask you to show where "I can buy anything I want" is truly present in the passage you quoted.
You can buy what people will sell, and you can benefit from what you own. That's it.
Titan6
member
Economics hold that under pure capitalism you can buy whatever you want so long as you can pay the asking price.
Here I will prove it to you by becoming a middle man.
Want a DPMS AP4 .308 and 2000 rounds of .308 ammo? Send me $6000 and it is yours.
Want a brand new Ford F350 with duallys and a giant diesel engine? No problem send me $60,000 and an address.
Want to go to the moon? No worries. Send me $60,000,000,000 and I will send a limo to pick you up. Hope you don't mind flying Russian but they will take your money.
Want a time machine? Send me $100,000,000,000,000,000,000 US dollars and I will build you one. It may take all of the resources of the solar system but if you have that at your disposal then have at it.
Pure capitalism. You can buy whatever you want so long as you can afford it in time and money. The market will produce whatever goods and services are desired eventually so long as you are willing to pay the price.
The game the government plays is to make certain goods more expensive (say cars and gasoline) to try to change the paradigm so that people will seek substitutes that are more in line with public political policy and investments (trains and walking).
Southern Rebel
Member
- Joined
- Feb 5, 2009
- Messages
- 154
MountainBear, I am with you. Even IF the great SHTF event were to come about, I am not sure the world that some of you picture yourself surviving in is something I want to participate in - one where it the becomes "each man for himself" and "survival of the fittest". Either you will survive it as a group of organized Americans or you will die as an individualist.
(I can picture pathetic little islands of well-armed, well-stocked individuals slowly being engulfed by the masses and wondering why their neighbors, unarmed and un-ammoed due to severe shortages from the hoarding rage, didn't join in to help them.)
I personally don't believe in the fantasyland horror predictions because this country has too great of a military might to allow total social and institutional collapse. I can't tell you that you won't ever see military law and even some "depression era" type of suffering. Economic predictions and social unrest are never predictable. But we will survive it as a nation and, who knows, maybe great hardship on the masses would enable us to change our miserable moral values and sorry work ethics enough to be the nation that we inherited from our fathers and grandfathers. One can only hope......
(Note: If the great horror show does hit the big screen, my neighbors and friends are welcome to share what food and ammo I have - if we run out of either, we will run out together. That is not negotiable - it is the way I was raised and believe.)
(I can picture pathetic little islands of well-armed, well-stocked individuals slowly being engulfed by the masses and wondering why their neighbors, unarmed and un-ammoed due to severe shortages from the hoarding rage, didn't join in to help them.)
I personally don't believe in the fantasyland horror predictions because this country has too great of a military might to allow total social and institutional collapse. I can't tell you that you won't ever see military law and even some "depression era" type of suffering. Economic predictions and social unrest are never predictable. But we will survive it as a nation and, who knows, maybe great hardship on the masses would enable us to change our miserable moral values and sorry work ethics enough to be the nation that we inherited from our fathers and grandfathers. One can only hope......
(Note: If the great horror show does hit the big screen, my neighbors and friends are welcome to share what food and ammo I have - if we run out of either, we will run out together. That is not negotiable - it is the way I was raised and believe.)
Titan6
member
You know? I feel the same way. What about the people who are not your friends and neighbors? They get a shot at your larder also? Because you know if so why even bother having guns anyway?
Ed Ames
Member
Titan, sorry, you've got it backwards.
Economics holds that under pure capitalism I can buy whatever the owner is willing to sell me. Government regulations operate by adding expense or risk to the seller which causes the seller to raise the minimum price they are willing to sell an item for to above the maximum amount people are willing to pay.
Economics holds that under pure capitalism I can buy whatever the owner is willing to sell me. Government regulations operate by adding expense or risk to the seller which causes the seller to raise the minimum price they are willing to sell an item for to above the maximum amount people are willing to pay.
STARR15
Member
Thanks Titan 6. I will buy a box or 4 if if can every month. Someone bought 10+ cases of 7.62 Wolf (1000 rounds) for $330 a case w /State Tax. $3300!! None left for me. I thinkthat was a good thing.
chuckusaret
member
The "excess" weapons are hitting the streets now. A just picked up a Star SM Super .380 ACP in like new condition for $200 but goes in the 3's on gun broker. The Pawn shop also had 5 or 6 long guns and a bunch of the Jennings POS.
Titan6
member
Dang it, four years of business school wasted!
I'll tell you what though; drive a dump truck load of cash around long enough and someone will sell you whatever you want. Even if they have to knock the rightful owner over the head to get it. Some of the places I have been in the last 20 years illustrate this point beyond a reasonable doubt.
They might even create a gray and black markets to get around that whole pesky government thing. Not that anyone would do such a thing as it would be against the law.
When I say "I can buy whatever you want" what I am really saying is that is that I am also a producer. There is a balance of trade that I must observe. I provide money, time, labor, sex (whatever) in exchange for whatever I want. It is an exchange of semi-equals. In our society cash just happens to be the primary medium of exchange. If one seller has an exclusive monopoly (say atomic bombs) the producer can set the price on that good or service or even fail to provide the good or service for whatever reason. But he won't have the monopoly for long. Demand will make someone set a price that the buyer will pay.
Let us examine supply and demand curves in relation to the ammo market for a moment.
Typically when demand goes up, and supply remains the same or goes down, price will go up. The market has a tendency to remain balanced, so the producer will (if possible) increase supply to meet demand.
Different producers face different cost constraints. Allaint is already running the Lake City plant to full capacity and has been doing so since 2003. But more could be made if the price were high enough. It seems to be since retail price has quadrupled in some types in 6 years. In the situation of the time machine none can be had, because even in the face of unlimited demand there are no time machines to be had for any price or resource known to man. This is the reason demand can not create supply. However a time machine is a fictional creation I used to illustrate a point. But ammo, that can be done.
The upward slope of the supply curve indicates that, other things being equal, an increase in price will result in an increase in the quantity supplied. However with ammunition it seems we are approaching the peak of the supply side curve and no more ammo forthcoming. Why would this be? Maybe there is another reason? Who owns Remington anyway? Why would they have an interest in not risking capital to make more money? Is there no capital to be had? possibly... Somebody should look into that.
As second reason why increasing prices for a good or service result in an increase in quantity is opportunity cost. As the price of a good or service increases, the opportunity cost of producing other goods or services or of engaging in other activities also increases thus giving resultant inflation. We are no where close to achieving marginal returns but at the same time we are not seeing more ammo. So that is not what is happening in the case of ammunition now is it? No what is happening is that ammo is being bought up everywhere coming off of weak '08 3rd quarter demand. Plenty of time to ramp up. But we are not. That is weird. I wonder what happens when we need to increase production of a good in the US and don't want to invest the capital in the US.
Oh, yeah we tell the Chinese to do it. Seems we can buy every product known to man from China but no ammo. Still think government adds an expense. Yeah if a ban is an expense it does.....
I'll tell you what though; drive a dump truck load of cash around long enough and someone will sell you whatever you want. Even if they have to knock the rightful owner over the head to get it.
Some of the places I have been in the last 20 years illustrate this point beyond a reasonable doubt. They might even create a gray and black markets to get around that whole pesky government thing. Not that anyone would do such a thing as it would be against the law.
When I say "I can buy whatever you want" what I am really saying is that is that I am also a producer. There is a balance of trade that I must observe. I provide money, time, labor, sex (whatever) in exchange for whatever I want. It is an exchange of semi-equals. In our society cash just happens to be the primary medium of exchange. If one seller has an exclusive monopoly (say atomic bombs) the producer can set the price on that good or service or even fail to provide the good or service for whatever reason. But he won't have the monopoly for long. Demand will make someone set a price that the buyer will pay.
Let us examine supply and demand curves in relation to the ammo market for a moment.
Typically when demand goes up, and supply remains the same or goes down, price will go up. The market has a tendency to remain balanced, so the producer will (if possible) increase supply to meet demand.
Different producers face different cost constraints. Allaint is already running the Lake City plant to full capacity and has been doing so since 2003. But more could be made if the price were high enough. It seems to be since retail price has quadrupled in some types in 6 years. In the situation of the time machine none can be had, because even in the face of unlimited demand there are no time machines to be had for any price or resource known to man. This is the reason demand can not create supply. However a time machine is a fictional creation I used to illustrate a point. But ammo, that can be done.
The upward slope of the supply curve indicates that, other things being equal, an increase in price will result in an increase in the quantity supplied. However with ammunition it seems we are approaching the peak of the supply side curve and no more ammo forthcoming. Why would this be? Maybe there is another reason? Who owns Remington anyway? Why would they have an interest in not risking capital to make more money? Is there no capital to be had? possibly... Somebody should look into that.
As second reason why increasing prices for a good or service result in an increase in quantity is opportunity cost. As the price of a good or service increases, the opportunity cost of producing other goods or services or of engaging in other activities also increases thus giving resultant inflation. We are no where close to achieving marginal returns but at the same time we are not seeing more ammo. So that is not what is happening in the case of ammunition now is it? No what is happening is that ammo is being bought up everywhere coming off of weak '08 3rd quarter demand. Plenty of time to ramp up. But we are not. That is weird. I wonder what happens when we need to increase production of a good in the US and don't want to invest the capital in the US.
Oh, yeah we tell the Chinese to do it. Seems we can buy every product known to man from China but no ammo. Still think government adds an expense. Yeah if a ban is an expense it does.....
Titan6
member
Wasn't me, I don't shoot the commie round. I did buy some 5.56 at Walmart Friday. 100 rounds was $28. They still had plenty left. Why did I buy it? Always buy ammo when I go to Walmart. I would like to point out it was cheaper per round than the case price for your stubby 7.62.
Ed Ames
Member
Governments can't actually ban anything. They try (drug war?) but all that does is raises the risk associated with producing that item, which in turn increases the remuneration a producer will demand. The general economic effect is to raise prices which will stifle but not eliminate the market (elasticity).
As for dump trucks: A group of coworkers comes into your office and says, "We've taken up a collection and we'll pay you $___________ to go into the lunch room and kill yourself right now." How large a number must that be?
I can't comment on "wasted".
As for dump trucks: A group of coworkers comes into your office and says, "We've taken up a collection and we'll pay you $___________ to go into the lunch room and kill yourself right now." How large a number must that be?
I can't comment on "wasted".
Titan6
member
Not to make light of it but there are many who would take your group up on the offer based on the economy today if the collection were large enough. The whole proposition of life insurance limits I think lowers the ante. If you could buy $100,000,000,000 in life insurance and insure the livelihood of many future generations of Ames than the dynamics change do they not? Again it is the price and the willingness to exchange that makes the bargain.
If I really did not want to go? Make the amount high enough and somebody would shoot me in the back of the head and claim the money. You would therefore get a substitute for the desired service.
BTW governments can "ban" if the wish to invest the resources in the ban. True a black/ gray market will be created but a powerful and resourceful government can even shut that down if it can afford (and wants) to.
Drugs are a good example. Drug imports stopped in the US during WWII. But the US was mobilized as a country and the borders were actually policed during that time.
Southern Rebel
Member
- Joined
- Feb 5, 2009
- Messages
- 154
Titan6, Your question is very legitimate - I suppose the best answer I can give is to hope "They" have friends and neighbors also. (Not a great answer, but sometimes life's toughest questions don't have any good answers.)
The glue that binds your and I and all of the other THR members together is our desire to preserve our 2nd amendments rights. The more people that begin to appreciate guns, the better off we all will be - even if some of the new ones aren't exactly knowledgeable. My concern is this: If they get the feeling that we are all just individual survivalists, with no cohesiveness or unity of purpose, they might never take the next steps of voting their gun convictions, supporting the NRA, and taking the time and effort to educate themselves on who we are and what we represent.
It pains me to say it, but maybe we need to be a little bit politically correct within our own ranks. Instead of saying, "I got mine - not my fault you were a dumb ass and didn't see it coming", maybe we should be saying, "Guys, here is what a well-prepared gun owner should have in the way of ammunition stock and here are some good sources to accomplish that goal".
Politically speaking, our forefathers were right in their time and right in ours when they advised, "Either we hang together, or we shall surely hang separately". After this last election year, I certainly sense a little tightening around the old jugular!
MountainBear
Member
Some people are not in it for the greater good of their community, only the greater good of themselves. And thats sad.
I'm not advocating communism nor socialism or any -ism for that matter. It is my opinion that -ism's in general are bad...
Oh, sorry got caught up in a Ferris Bueler moment there for a moment.
Look, I'm not going to argue the definition of capitalism with you all. I am but a humble forester/fishing guide/gunsmith (even went to college for two of those things) who doesn't know much about capitalism in classroom terms.
I will finish with this, and I may be beating a dead horse here, but all I am suggesting is that the next time you go to Sportsman's Warehouse and see that box of (insert favorite ammo here) sitting on the shelves, don't think well if I don't buy it to add to my already over-flowing supply, someone else will do the same thing; rather smile and think that maybe some newbie will come right after you and buy it and get to go learn some and emerge himself in our 2nd Amendment culture.
Then go home and sleep well knowing that while you may only have 2000 rounds of (again, insert favorite caliber here), rather than 2050, but maybe, just maybe, a new shooter got to put his first 50 rounds down range. And feel good knowing maybe in your own little way, you had something to do with preserving our culture.
Ed Ames
Member
Of course some would accept. I assumed that you would not admit that you would.
Paying someone to kill another is NOT the same as paying someone to kill themselves if you assume that people have ownership of themselves and cannot have ownership of others. What you said was exactly equivalent to, "If an art collector refuses to sell you a painting you can just can hire a thief to steal it." That may be factual but it is NOT CAPITALism.
Capitalism values ownership over control. A factory owner owns the factory even if someone else (the business or worker operating the factory) controls it. The house owner owns the house even if someone else (the tenant) is renting and controls it. The owner owns the output because they own the capital which produced that output. Yes, they must sell off some of what they produce to pay workers to operate the factory but that is only because they lack automation. Fully automate the factory and the owner doesn't have to pay anyone and they get all the product because they owned the means of production.
You, by conflating control (ability to pay and have someone die) and ownership (someone selling their own life), have exposed a very non-capitalistic thought process in yourself.
As for banning... Show up with a container load of gold and you will find someone to sell you any banned substance, no matter how banned it is. All the government enforcement, or mobilization, does is raise the risks and therefore the costs.
And, frankly, drug imports stopped during WWII? Not factual.
Paying someone to kill another is NOT the same as paying someone to kill themselves if you assume that people have ownership of themselves and cannot have ownership of others. What you said was exactly equivalent to, "If an art collector refuses to sell you a painting you can just can hire a thief to steal it." That may be factual but it is NOT CAPITALism.
Capitalism values ownership over control. A factory owner owns the factory even if someone else (the business or worker operating the factory) controls it. The house owner owns the house even if someone else (the tenant) is renting and controls it. The owner owns the output because they own the capital which produced that output. Yes, they must sell off some of what they produce to pay workers to operate the factory but that is only because they lack automation. Fully automate the factory and the owner doesn't have to pay anyone and they get all the product because they owned the means of production.
You, by conflating control (ability to pay and have someone die) and ownership (someone selling their own life), have exposed a very non-capitalistic thought process in yourself.
As for banning... Show up with a container load of gold and you will find someone to sell you any banned substance, no matter how banned it is. All the government enforcement, or mobilization, does is raise the risks and therefore the costs.
And, frankly, drug imports stopped during WWII? Not factual.
mountainpharm
Member
- Joined
- Feb 4, 2009
- Messages
- 182
getting back to ammo...
...how much are you all keeping on hand? I haven't bumped my minimum on-hand amounts any since the election. Here's what I'm keeping:
.223 - 1100 rounds
7.62x39 - 1000 rounds
9mm - 400 rounds
.38 Special - 200 rounds
.45 ACP - 500 rounds
.22 LR - 500 rounds
My approach has been and continues to be to replace what I shoot.
...how much are you all keeping on hand? I haven't bumped my minimum on-hand amounts any since the election. Here's what I'm keeping:
.223 - 1100 rounds
7.62x39 - 1000 rounds
9mm - 400 rounds
.38 Special - 200 rounds
.45 ACP - 500 rounds
.22 LR - 500 rounds
My approach has been and continues to be to replace what I shoot.
CSA 357
Member
I DONT SHOOT AS MUCH AS I USED TOO, WHY? IT COST MORE, EVEN HANDLOADS POWDER PRIMERS, ARE HARD TO FIND,SO ILL TRY TO KEEP WHAT I DO HAVE AND BUY A LITTLE AT A TIME, WHAT IF GETS WORSE? WHAT IF TEN YEARS FROM NOW YOU CANT GET AMMO? I THINK THIS IS THE MIND SET ALOT OF PEOPLE ARE USING, YOU CAN HAVE A HOUSE FULL OF GUNS, BUT WITHOUT AMMO THEY ARE OF NO USE! CSA
LightningJoe
Member
Hoarding ammo makes sense; it'll never go bad.
America is in a tough spot and the Federal government is doing exactly the wrong things. And practically every other country in the world is in worse shape. The US right now and for the foreseeable future is one of the better places to be. Latin America, Africa, Europe, and Asia (excluding Japan) will have quite a century.
Hang on to your guns (and all the ammo you can afford). Bury them or otherwise hide them when the time comes. You'll need to dig them up and clean off the cosmoline when this phase transitions to the next one. That's when all hell will break loose. I'm saying 30 years max.
America is in a tough spot and the Federal government is doing exactly the wrong things. And practically every other country in the world is in worse shape. The US right now and for the foreseeable future is one of the better places to be. Latin America, Africa, Europe, and Asia (excluding Japan) will have quite a century.
Hang on to your guns (and all the ammo you can afford). Bury them or otherwise hide them when the time comes. You'll need to dig them up and clean off the cosmoline when this phase transitions to the next one. That's when all hell will break loose. I'm saying 30 years max.
MountainBear
Member
Thats when the SHTF and the zombies start eating people right?
As for getting back to ammo, I keep the following:
100 rounds for each of my centerfire pistols (9mm, .45ACP, .32ACP, .38/.357)
40 to 60 rounds of ammo for my centerfire hunting rifle (.30-06, .257 roberts AI)
20 rounds of expensive hunting ammo (.300 Wby.)
2 value bricks of cheap .22 LR for my .22 rifles
500 to 600 rounds of CCI High Velocity for my CZ Rifle, and my .22 handguns.
I will rarely shoot more than half of my stock in one range trip, generally trying to replace it within a few days of shooting it. Although, like I said, .22 is all i've been shooting lately, because its not hunting season (no need to shoot the .30-06'), and I cannot replace my pistol ammo locally.
ThrottleJockey
member
I predict that smaller, boutique ammo companies will begin popping up, each able to supply a small number of retailers. In my opinion, this would be great, as it will keep the money local, and feed the local economies. It will also be great in the area of quality control.
Lone_Gunman
Member
I don't see why everyone is acting like they never saw this coming. It was pretty clear over a year ago that the Democrats were going to win.
Everyone went out and voted for Obama and the Democrats, and then realized they had just voted for a bunch of gun grabbers, so they all went to Wal Mart and bought all the ammo they could find.
Once again, America gets what it deserves by voting for these people.
Everyone went out and voted for Obama and the Democrats, and then realized they had just voted for a bunch of gun grabbers, so they all went to Wal Mart and bought all the ammo they could find.
Once again, America gets what it deserves by voting for these people.
I've noticed definite shortages in my area, and it doesn't look like it will get better soon. I went to 3 different stores a couple of weeks ago to check prices and availability in some calibers a friend and I both use. Not necessarily in order of scarcity: .222, 5.56x45/.223, 7.62x39, 7.62x51/.308, 7.62x54R, 5.45x39, 30.06, .30-30, .38/.357, .40, 9mm, .380, .45ACP, 12/20 ga. slugs and #4, 00, 000 buckshot...You can still buy a lot of the less commonly used ammo at some stores, but anything a lot of people use for home/self defense is scarce. I wasn't able to find any .308/7.62x51mm, 7.62x39, 5.45x39mm, 7.62x54Rmm, .38, or 12 ga. slugs at all, and the people in all 3 stores said they sell out within hours of coming in, and all were on back order so they didn't come in very often. The good news is if you figure a .450 Marlin or .338 Lapua, something along those lines, is the ideal defense round you can buy all you can carry...if you have the $$.
I don't hoard, but I kind of wish I had since it's so expensive to buy ammo, when you can find it!
I don't hoard, but I kind of wish I had since it's so expensive to buy ammo, when you can find it!
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