Gun, Ammo Market Predictions

[Titan6]

I don't see why everyone is acting like they never saw this coming. It was pretty clear over a year ago that the Democrats were going to win.

Everyone went out and voted.... realized they had just voted for a bunch of gun grabbers.... went to Wal Mart and bought all the ammo they could find.

Seems I was not the only who noticed this. In fact I could post links to dozens of threads at this very web site discussing this phenomena over the last 2 years. As I said: Not my problem, I pointed it out then.

I predict that smaller, boutique ammo companies will begin popping up, each able to supply a small number of retailers.

This would almost certainly be true if the government had not seized defacto control of the economy and credit markets.

That may be factual but it is NOT CAPITALism.

I suppose this is true but look at it this way; the result is near the same even if the road was a little crooked getting there. The problem here is that the neocons bought into the idea that capitalism was NOT about ownership and shipped the economy to China and Mexico.

You, by conflating control (ability to pay and have someone die) and ownership (someone selling their own life), have exposed a very non-capitalistic thought process in yourself.

We really part ways here. My life is the ultimate ownership. What I choose to do with it is up to me, no one else. If I choose to buy and sell it then so be it. You can build a strawman about slavery if you wish but it is not the same thing. A slave has no choice in the matter. Socialism is about another laying a claim to my life for their purposes. This is fundamental to understanding the philosophy.

And, frankly, drug imports stopped during WWII? Not factual.

Maybe not stopped but darn near stopped. Certainly not what we had before or after.

I will finish with this, and I may be beating a dead horse here, but all I am suggesting is that the next time you go to Sportsman's Warehouse and see that box of (insert favorite ammo here) sitting on the shelves

I don't think ANY of us will be doing that, ever again, at least not after next month. For someone who does not want a discussion about economics you choose poorly a thread title and opening post.

Southern Rebel read the Lone Gunman's post and that is the truth of it right there. I don't want those people that sold us down river voting ever again they are dangerous and will prove traitorous in the end. I can't make them stop though. You might be thinking that you could change things for the better. I think you would be wrong. If you want to examine what is really wrong with the economy look closely at this disaster that the SEC created. The Mark to Market Rule, the repeal of Glass-Stegal, the removal of the Uptick Rule, the loosening of lending guidelines.... the list goes on and on. All created by the neocons in less than a decade. The government created this disaster and now they are following their classic crisis management plan:

1. Act surprised
2. Show concern
3. Shift blame
4. Increase power base by infringing on liberties.

 

[model of 1905]

I shoot 12000 rounds of ammo per year. How many rounds would you say I need?

I DID NOT vote for the gun grabbers.

 

[MountainBear]

Quote:
I will finish with this, and I may be beating a dead horse here, but all I am suggesting is that the next time you go to Sportsman's Warehouse and see that box of (insert favorite ammo here) sitting on the shelves

I don't think ANY of us will be doing that, ever again, at least not after next month. For someone who does not want a discussion about economics you choose poorly a thread title and opening post.

I didn't start the thread, pay attention.

I simply assumed that we care about our fellow shooters and tried to bring that point up. Titan, you apparently only care about yourself. More power to you.

 

[Titan6]

Now that is funny Bear! Much funnier than you will ever know.

 

[MountainBear]

I'm sure their is an explanation to your comment, but I don't think you and I arguing is going to be productive. So lets just agree to disagree. We're not bringing any useful information into this thread now.

 

[Lone_Gunman]

I am not sure it makes sense to share ammo with people who may or may not need to be on the receiving end of it one day.

Why are people buying this ammo? To prepare for SHTF I suppose. Well, if that is the case, who is to say that the guy behind you in line won't be fighting on the other side? or trying to loot your house after the next hurricane?

 

[ThrottleJockey]

"I predict that smaller, boutique ammo companies will begin popping up, each able to supply a small number of retailers.

This would almost certainly be true if the government had not seized defacto control of the economy and credit markets."

Sort of irrelevant since one could start up such a venture in a garage or basement for less than the cost of a car. After obtaining the licensing of course....

 

[Ed Ames]

We really part ways here. My life is the ultimate ownership.

I think we part ways in that you really want to believe I'm wrong because I described something you think you know about in terms you are unfamiliar with...but that's just me.

You haven't actually shown where you disagree with anything I've said except "you are wrong", and you haven't shown that you were right.

Let's recap: You have said capitalism means can buy anything you want. I said no, you can buy what the owner will sell you, giving the paid suicide example. You replied, If they won't sell you can steal it, giving the paid murder example. Now you are saying we part ways because your life is the ultimate ownership.....no, that's not the parting...that's an integral assumption underlying my point.

 

[Brian Dale]

The government created this disaster and now they are following their classic crisis management plan:

1. Act surprised
2. Show concern
3. Shift blame
4. Increase power base by infringing on liberties.

That's going into my Quotes file, with your permission. They've followed that plan at least since the days of H.L. Mencken.

 

[ChemicalArts]

Want a time machine? Send me $100,000,000,000,000,000,000 US dollars and I will build you one. It may take all of the resources of the solar system but if you have that at your disposal then have at it.

Was this part of the stimulus package?

 

[Titan6]

Ed I think we do agree on more than we disagree with I just see it differently. However you still have not shown where under caputalism I can not buy whatever I demand provided I own the resources (capital) to exchange.

Have at the quote Brian Dale. Again just my way of looking at things. Others might see it differently.

 

[heron]

I've become a minor speculator in the ammunition futures market . . . I order some ammo, then speculate about when in the future it will be shipped to me.
I'm not talking hoarding tens of cases, I just ordered 500 rounds each of .38 Special and .357 Magnum for practice . . . and a practice session for me is two boxes, minimum. I'm just going to make sure I don't use up all of the few hundred rounds I've got before the new stuff arrives.

 

[ServiceSoon]

...The government created this disaster...

How so?

 

[shooter429]

YUP. Exactly as predicted when Hussein O. was elected

If you didn't stock up, you will be waiting a while and paying a lot.

There is good news though. Reloading is an even more economically viable hobby now, then it was a year ago. Hard to sweallow spending $50 for a box of American made .40 or .45 ammo?

You do not have to

Dillon, RCBS, and Hornady, to name a few make all the tools you need to get started. If you want to just buy everything at once and not do a lot of searching for parts, they make complete kits for a couple hundred bucks-everything you need to get going. Here is a reputable dealer I buy a lot of from which I buy a lot of supplies http://www.midwayusa.com/reloading

Don't have a bench? Too expensive? Lumber and hardware are not in short supply. I built mine to last a lifetime, in one weekend. Use quality outdoor Lumber and Verathane spray-easy build, cleanup, and once dry, no weathering (if in a shed or porch). I set it all up with hand tools (Home Depot cut everything to spec for me) and had put out several hundred rounds by the end of the second weekend.

Bullets hard to find? Make them. Pick up buckets of old tire wheel weights etc. Don't have brass? spend a couple days at your local range with a broom, dustpan and bucket (cleaning up after each shooter as a courtesy Primers? They are still around, so pick up 20,000. Powder? Buy a few kegs. You are now set to winter the Leftist storm for a few hundred dollars and a few days work.

Now for $50 you can shoot $500 RDS instead of 50.

Not sure how to set up that new Dillon? read instructions, not clear enough? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9V48xgW80A0&feature=related You Tube.

Want other specifics? Contact me or other loaders you know. I am sure most will be glad to help.

I am already getting friends dropping by for lessons and some cheap ammo, made to each person's exact specifications for different guns and purposes.

 

[Guns and more]

Gun sales don't translate to expansion of gun production. Nor does it mean that gun manufacturers will see their stock price increase.
Same reason economic stimulus checks don't work. No factory is going to buy new equipment because there is a short spike in sales.
They might add a shift, or continue to run behind. As long as the customer is willing to wait a year for a product, it doesn't cost you any more to produce it.
Adding a shift adds the dreaded "labor". Health benefits, worker's comp, wages, withholding, unions, government intervention, endless paperwork, safety, training, no-shows. Better to let the customer wait a year (They seem willing to wait), it's not like a vacuum cleaner where they'll just get a different one. There is brand loyalty, like Harley used to enjoy.
Then when everyone has their AR, or whatever, production is back to normal, no money was wasted, the CEO looks like a genius.

1. Act surprised
2. Show concern
3. Shift blame
4. Increase power base by infringing on liberties.

I'd add:
5. Spend money to expand government.

(This is real) The number has to be big. But if you pick a round number (1 trillion) it sounds like you pulled it out of the air. So make it 872 Billion. That's exactly how they did it. It sounds like they had a handle on the budget when in reality, they just made it up. In the Pelosi Pork bill, there are items for $100 million. Then it is crossed out and handwritten in pen $150 million is added in the margin.
Then congress is told this is too important to read, no we can't wait 48 hours. Pass it...........Then Obama took 4 days to sign it, because he took Michelle to dinner for Valentines. Will we never learn?

 

[LightningJoe]

Thats when the SHTF and the zombies start eating people right?

No, that's after they've borrowed all the money the rest of the world can lend, pushed themselves down the far slope of the Laffer curve, and confiscated all the money in every retirement account, pension plan, and every other concentration of accumulated wealth they could grab.


That's when the hyperinflation will go triple-digit, government at every level will give up, and much of the country will become a no-go zone for law enforcement. The cities will be worst, many suburbs will be raided, rural areas will be better, remote areas or (some) other countries even better.

 

[wally]

Just got 1000 rounds of 7.62x39 ammo from Sportsmans' Guide ordered back in October. They honored the original $209 price. I was not charged until it shipped.

Patience can pay off. Wish I'd ordered more at the time

The "excess" weapons are hitting the streets now. A just picked up a Star SM Super .380 ACP in like new condition for $200 but goes in the 3's on gun broker. The Pawn shop also had 5 or 6 long guns and a bunch of the Jennings POS

Gun Broker prices always seem way inflated to me, I used to check Gun Broker for what I was looking for before going to shows but after always finding things for typically 10-25% less at the shows, I just shop for best price at the larger shows.

--wally.

 

[Titan6]

A Voice in the Wind

Originally Posted by titan6
...The government created this disaster...

How so?

__________

By removing all the safeguards to the markets.

Simple:

1- Repeal Glass-Stegal - allow otherwise risk adverse banks to engage in risky behavior

2- Force banks by court order to lend to people with bad/no credit at rates they can not afford making the housing market go crazy (gee, I wonder who was behind that.... Who did Freddie and Fannie give all their lobby dollars to anyway?)

3- Put in the Mark to Market Rule that forces evaluations of securities and derivatives based upon arbitrary measures that force their value down in most circumstances.

4- Loosen oversight of banks, credit agencies and mortgage companies.

5- And the final blow: Repeal the Uptick Rule which allows naked short selling and allows certain investors to force the markets down to make insane amounts of money. Exactly 90 days after the repeal of the Uptick Rule the market went into a tail spin from which it has never recovered. Why 90 days? Because that is the most common length of contracts.

Wonder why the market went up last week? Because they said they were going to put the Uptick Rule back into place. No more naked short selling. The same day.... ten minutes later... the markets began to rise.... and have kept rising. Coincidence? Un-huh, yeah.... coincidence is one of those things I do not believe in much.

Is it a conspiracy? doubtful They aren't smart enough to do that.

Incompetency? Greed? Stupidity? Take your pick, you decide...

What does this have to do with the thread, ammo, THR and gun rights? Everything... nothing. You decide.

All I know is that my country is now an extra $2,000,000,000,000 in debt and we have nothing, absolutely nothing to show for it. Except more social programs. Anybody else feel betrayed?

 

[Ed Ames]

Titan, it's a minor point I guess but ownership rights are essential to capitalism ... capitalism loses integrity when the right of an owner to refuse sale is diminished. "I can buy anything I want," is true as a consumerist ideal but it fails at the edge case of "no sale".

Ownership is under threat right now.

Without full respect for ownership there is no market, no market price, no capitalism. That's why I was surprised when you, in advocating capitalism, introduced theft as a viable alternative for the market..but anyway.

Some groups have the power to ignore that principle. Eminent Domain is the easy example. In that case the government can say "Things like yours cost $$$$$$$, so we'll pay that and no you can't refuse." That was a sale at "market price" but it was no part of capitalist theory.

I have heard some strange economic theories promoted recently and all hinged on the idea that it was OK to compel sales at "market price". Of course you know (I assume) that there is no market price when a sale can be forced. A lot of people don't. A bunch of people are realizing that foreclosure numbers and foreclosed property on market numbers are vastly different (banks are holding at current market values) and their solutions amount to "I can buy anything I want so long as I pay market price...so let's force those banks to sell what they are hoarding!"

Not you, I know, but your words with just a little added.

You see it on this board with people who think that raising prices now is profiteering and immoral... and with people who are outraged when a walmark clerk won't sell them all the ammo in the store.

 

[Titan6]

Ok I see where you were leading me now. I don't advocate forced sale. This something that is agreed upon. People don't seem to find it strange when the Food Lion limits the quantities of cases of sodas it will sell at "sale" prices but think the black helicopters are circling when Walmart will only sell them 10 boxes of ammo. What they seem to miss is they can still buy their ammo. Just not the cheap stuff from Walmart.

I don't advocate theft either. I just point it that it has always been a part of free market society. When people raise prices through increased demand theft almost always increases. The robber barons of old forcing people off of their land to build a railroad are an early example. It is a corruption of the system but part of it nonetheless.

 

[winston smith]

Don't worry about all those new socialist programs- in 4 years we will not be able to afford them- or ammo- or food.

 

[jeff-10]

There is defintely a saturation point for ARs and AKs. What it is, I don't know, but they are highly durable goods and the average person isn't probably using their's a lot. Ammo on the other hand can be used up so I feel it will hold its value more than a gun. I live in South Florida, ground zero for all things bubble related, I'll let you know when the prices start crashing.

 

[Southern Rebel]

Well Titan6, we have already found two things we agree on -

1. Being a retired CPA, I totally agree government stupidity and greed and lack of any redeeming moral value caused the present (and future) financial mess.

2. We agree on who NOT to elect as president

Hey, we even agree on the shortage of decently priced ammunition!

Now all that is left is for us to sit down and figure out a way to fix all of the above. But at least we are ahead of both political parties - we can identify a problem when we see one AND we can have a reasonable agree to disagree discussion without totally beating each other's brains out with "talking points". (Maybe we should have been politicians???????)

 

[Ed Ames]

As another datapoint... I was in a chain sporting goods store earlier today and they not only had stacks of ammo (including .223 stacked on overflow shelves and end-isles like they didn't have room for it all), but a lot of it was marked down. As in "Old price $29.99, new price $27.99" tags on boxes of mid-range hunting ammo. It wasn't that way a month ago when I wanted to take some non-shooting friends to the range without depleting my stock. They actually beat the price I paid walmart last month by over 20% (crossing tier-1 brands but same bullet type).

This same store literally doubled the size of their gun counter a month or two ago.... they took display cases from another part of the store. Today they were looking pretty empty with registers standing open.

No primers though.


My theory right now: people who think they are going under in this recession were maxing out CCs buying stuff that gave them a security blanket feeling while they could. Now more can't.

 

[Hungry Seagull]

Consider this.

http://www.theshootist.net/2009/03/dod-ends-sale-of-expended-military.html