Again, we have no real idea of what terms of THE law would be, because there is no law truly under consideration at this point.
However, a few points to ponder:
I really don't want NY Chuck Shumer setting the criteria under which Ohio may recognize Kentucky's carry permit.
It would be very odd for the federal government to set what might be considered the UPPER limit of reciprocity agreements, rather than the minimums. In other words, a federal law would be likely to say, essentially, "states must AT LEAST recognize the right of citizens of other states to carry under these limited conditions."
Not, "states may ONLY recognize the rights of citizens of other states to carry IF these conditions are met."
While both are serious states' rights matters, the general way such things go is that states can go as far as they want in (in this case) recognizing each other's permits -- including VT style "anybody law abiding person can carry, period" -- so long as they at least abide by the more restrictive terms of the federal law.
So Chuck Schumer, and all his buddies in the Congress, wouldn't be likely to be saying anything at all to states who already meet the minimum requirements. The new law would be effectively irrelevant to them. They'd really only be putting a burden onto states who DON'T meet those minimums now.
An analogy is a federal speed limit standard tied to federal highway money. If the law says a state must set a maximum speed limit of 65 mph in order to receive federal dollars, that doesn't change life for states who already have 55 or 60 or 65 mph maximum speed limits. It isn't like the federal law also says, "AND you can't drive slower than 63..."
Of course...we have no absolutely concrete idea of that until SOMETHING is close to passing.
The only federal involvement that can have any good come of it would be the US Supreme Court determining that Constitutional carry is, in fact, Constitutional.
Again, it can't be proper to say that the ONLY federal involvement that could be a positive is that, because you can't really argue that forcing MD or NJ or HI to recognize the carry permits of all US citizens is a net bad thing.
But on the other hand, the Court has never really walked very close to the idea that states cannot put limits on who carries firearms where, and that would be an almost impossible to imagine development.
Heller and
McDonald were amazing decisions that most of us believed we'd never see. But a SCOTUS decision that going out and about armed is a fundamental right, through the whole country, irrespective of any state law to the contrary, would pretty much be a modern day miracle.
National reciprocity doesn't work as long as the Federal Gun Free School Zone Act is in place.
And this isn't really so. National reciprocity isn't any more hampered than state-to-state reciprocity by GFSCA. That's a bad law, largely unenforced, but seriously dangerous to lots of good folks who intend to be law abiding in all things. It should be struck down. But it doesn't really stand as a roadblock to a possible national reciprocity bill. Just a dangerous pitfall to folks who do carry out-of-state.