How long til panic stops?

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osteodoc08

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Geez guys,

I have one AR already and had planned on getting another after Christmas, but with all this panic buying, obviously it's gonns have to wait.

I don't recall how long the last panic buying/ammo hoarding lasted last time. Does anyone recall so that I can figure out how long I can plan on saving up when used guns flood the market? My guess is this time next year, the market will flood with used AR's once the panic stops and people need money for more important ventures.

What say you?
 
Possibly as early as the in-committee death of S.R. 1, the Assault Weapons Ban Act of 2013, after two years... or possibly as late as after the SCOTUS rules against the Assault Weapons Ban Act of 2013 during the presidency of Trigger Palin in 2052...
 
Eh, who knows? Give it a year or so.

$500 was possibly way too much for all those other guys to pay for a CAI wasr-10.... but when the AWB panic dies down and as the economy worsens (I tend to think it will) and working class guys who bought in a panic start selling off to pay bills, a guy like me who's been saving his money might try to poach one, gently used and with the kinks worked out, for half that.
 
It will probably maintain at this rate until we know what language a proposed ban has. At that point, the panic may lessen or increase. The house is where it will likely die, and if it does, things will calm down quickly and the supply will begin to catch up.

Either a ban will be a reality, or it wont. Either way, we'll probably know by August or September, and the panic will cease.
 
I think a ban on certain rifles and magazines is inevitable. The republicans are too weak to stop it. The emotional wave is growing too strong.

We probably will end up with a ban we won't be able to stop. We should really be paying close attention to other possibilities like a push for gun registration, bans on online sales, etc.

Do everything you can to promote the positive reputation of gun owners. And write your senators and congressmen.
 
Who knows? I personally believe that if we go over the cliff and our taxes get jacked up, Nobammo and our congress critters will be running for cover. If the economy crashes again, a new AWB will be the last thing on peoples minds. YMMV.
 
If you think that the future will bring cheap prices and easy access to AR-15's and the like , then sit on your hands and reap the rewards of that prediction.

I don't know where this is going to end up, but I don't see it just blowing over . Remember the "New World Order" talk of years back ?
 
There are only 2 types of people buying now. The mindless panic stricken and the profiteers.

If you were not ready by now shame on you.

This will blow over and come April when Mr OMG, I need an AR, 2 cases of PMC bronze, and 20 P Mags now, has to pay the IRS there will be some good bargains.
 
bikerdoc said:
There are only 2 types of people buying now. The mindless panic stricken and the profiteers.

If you were not ready by now shame on you.

This will blow over and come April when Mr OMG, I need an AR, 2 cases of PMC bronze, and 20 P Mags now, has to pay the IRS there will be some good bargains.
Click to expand...
Bikerdoc has it ... fear and greed tends to drive or at least effect quite a bit of behavior for sure.

snd
 
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Something feels different about this round of panic buying. When Obama was elected the first time, a combination of paranoia and an ongoing 2 front war combined to make guns and reloading components very difficult to buy. Reloading components gradually came back, as did a very ready supply of semi automatic sporting rifles.

This time, I noticed rifles, handguns, and reloading components(I haven't purchased ammo in years, except for some Polish Tok) becoming scarce almost instantly. While I recognize many of the purchasers are most likely responsible folk, I also acknowledge that many purchasers are most likely new to the hobby. I'm guessing we'll be seeing a rise in the "my AR jammed/are these loads safe/how do I reload .223" threads very soon.
 
Judging by the last panic induced by the 2008 election, which seemed about as bad as this one, if memory serves it was over in about a year to a year and a half. Most of that was just companies getting caught up on all the back orders. Once all those were filled, there was a glut of black guns and parts on the market, and we had a couple years of very low prices and wide selection.

A lot depends on the outcome of the 2014 congressional elections I suppose.
 
The panickers will lose money as tax time cometh on April 16, 2013. They have to dump them in the used market to pay Mr Uncle Sammy.
 
It isn't the rifles that are going to be hard to get it will be the magazines. Thirty and larger and probably 20's and maybe 10's aren't going to be available in the new Amerika. Look for ammunition taxes and reloading component taxes that are going to border on confiscatory. The other side understands that there is more than one road to their safer Amerika.
 
As henchman said, the panic buying lasted about a year in 2009. Then it took another year before the inventories recovered and prices dropped a bit.

In 2011 and 2012, inventories were good and I believe vendors stocked up getting ready for election 2012. But other events tossed a wrench in that plan.
 
I think that with the NRA coming out against any new restrictions, there is no way that legislation will make it through the House. I think the Executive-Order route is way too risky for the president in terms of being slapped down by normally friendly courts. That's one of the reasons that I think he appointed a commission headed by Biden. It's a quick way to kill something while looking like you're working hard on the problem.

Everyone keeps talking about how this is a game-changer, but I think, as horrible as it was, that once people get their first check after the first of the year their focus will change.... Which brings me to the only way I see anything getting through. If an AWB, scarry mag ban, etc, was part of some grand 'compromise' to revert back from the fiscal cliff after the first of the year.

I think things will start to return to more normal after March/April.

Matt
 
What panic? I've not purchased squat since all of the rumblings. A better investment would be an NRA membership.
 
There will be panic until something happens, in other words until they decide to put a ban into effect or not.
Click to expand...

If something gets out of committee, or is passed in the House, the panic is just getting started -- you ain't seen nothing yet!

I remember 1994 :( $6 AR mags jumped to $30 -- "dollar a round" became a starting point, banned guns about doubled overnight if you could find any.
 
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