How long til panic stops?

[shooter_from_show-me]

308ar.com had on their forum that Brownell's sold a 3.5 year supply of pmags in 36 hours.

I tried to order 3 when they showed "in stock" and was told the next day they were out and I said cancel it.:banghead:

 

[Viper187]

Damn. I don't get it. Is manufacturing magazines really that difficult? I mean it's xmas time, and the economy still sucks. Am I the only one that thinks these things are selling out a little too easily? It's not just AR stuff either. Even Glock mags are sold out a lot of places. This sucks. I wanted to save Some money and get some type of AR in the spring, but I'm afraid of what prices and backorders will be by then.

What are you guys doing, if anything? Stocking extra ammo, more guns, or more mags? We already have an old Colt AR-15 in the house, but I'd like something of my own.

 

[Caliper_Mi]

Panic would stop a whole lot sooner if eveyone buying a gun or ammo or mags this last week spent some time to write or call each and every one of their legislators and told them go leave guns alone.

 

[sixgunner455]

That's right, BluEyes, "leave them guns alone!"

Viper, I'm not really doing anything. I don't see the sense in it. I buy a little bit of this and a little bit of that to replace what I use in my stock of ammo and reloading supplies, and I'm picking up parts as I can afford them for a 6.8 upper I want to build. IOW - I haven't bought any parts since the panic started, and I'm waiting till next payday to seriously consider buying my barrel. If I can't afford what I want then, or they're out of stock, c'est la vie. It'll wait, or I'll buy something else and pitch a fit at my congresscritter.

 

[cfullgraf]

Damn. I don't get it. Is manufacturing magazines really that difficult? I mean it's xmas time, and the economy still sucks. Am I the only one that thinks these things are selling out a little too easily?

No, manufacturing magazines is not difficult. But, ramping up production to cover a short increase in sales is difficult.

The manufacturer may be at capacity of their production equipment and it would be a large investment and time to add capacity.

They may have only enough staff to cover pre-panic sales and it takes time to train new operators.

What do they do in a few months when the panic slows down, or worse, the Feds turn off the tap. Do they lay off workers? Do they scrap the new equipment they just purchased?

Not easy decisions.

What did I do, I planned ahead starting in 2010 and had been laying in inventory expecting the worse after the election. I figured there were too many sore losers in the race for president.

 

[DAdams]

I've been dollar cost averaging everything for 7 years. Now is not the time to buy in. Don't panic buy AR or AK stuff. Now may not be a bad time to pick up a Savage Scout if you have nothing.

 

[gotigers]

I think the panic will calm down in the next 30 days. Then it will slightly spike when Biden comes out with his findings. Low inventory and high prices will last till late spring or early summer. Then by this time next year, the market will be saturated because of all of this panic buying causing inventories to rise and prices to drop. Just like '09. It will last a little longer this time.

I think it is a perfect time to get caught up on other hobbies. I am going to get back into archery. I might get into bolt actions.

 

[Warp]

I think that by April it'll be pretty well settled down.

Just my guess.

 

[nathan]

I think it will increase even further as Biden begins his move by January. By that time people will be anticipating their tax returns so they will have incentive to buy. Or it can go down as people think of paying their taxes and such. But in all likelihood it will increase in my opinion.

The mere mention of semi auto ban of all classes will tricky down to AKs and SKSs. The AR stocks will already be gone by January so the next to move are the two. You will be seeing SKSs hitting $700-800 easy and AKs in the $1200 range.

 

[hershmeister]

No, manufacturing magazines is not difficult. But, ramping up production to cover a short increase in sales is difficult.

The manufacturer may be at capacity of their production equipment and it would be a large investment and time to add capacity.

They may have only enough staff to cover pre-panic sales and it takes time to train new operators.

What do they do in a few months when the panic slows down, or worse, the Feds turn off the tap. Do they lay off workers? Do they scrap the new equipment they just purchased?

Not easy decisions.

What did I do, I planned ahead starting in 2010 and had been laying in inventory expecting the worse after the election. I figured there were too many sore losers in the race for president.

This plus we're into the holiday season when staff is usually out on vacation and places slow down. Magpul will be shipping as much as they can to their distributors, who will restock as early as next week, but they'll be bought out again and there will be a small gap until Magpul resupplies them again. Length of that gap depends on Magpuls production speed. Imported AK mags may be even more difficult to replace quickly.

My sense of the timing of this will be punctuated by the into of Feinsteins AWB bill, Bidens Commision report and any other nutjob shootings that occur.

 

[Skyshot]

Panic would stop a whole lot sooner if eveyone buying a gun or ammo or mags this last week spent some time to write or call each and every one of their legislators and told them go leave guns alone.

+1, people will drive a day and drop a couple of grand for an AR, but they're too damn lazy to call write or email thier elected officials. Go figure!

 

[Gnarkill]

Panic Buys

I wouldn't just assume that bans aren't going to happen. Obama wanted to pass an AWB during his first term, he just didn't want to pursue it until he was guaranteed in his second. The most recent shootings with ARs have brought more media attention. Not to mention the fact that the most recent shooting involved kids. Kids being shot is media gold for anti gun groups. It's very easy to get people emotion about children, and the media and anti-gun congressmen are doing just that.

I live in the hole that is CT :banghead: and there's some pretty scary stuff proposed. Hopefully cooler heads prevail, but when you act on emotion and not fact that doesn't happen. I would love a cooling off period for legislation, not just guns . Not to mention the general public doesn't see the 1st AWB as a useless failure; they believe that all the tragedies only happened after the AWB expired BECAUSE it expired and now these guns magically showed up.

http://www.wtnh.com/dpp/news/politics/1st-law-change-after-sandy-hook-tragedy#.UNcvfndtZCZ
Cliff notes:
-Any rifle with ONE feature (pistol grip means illegal)
-10 round limit
-50% ammo tax and a permit to buy ammo. Online ammo sales illegal.
-Nothing is grandfathered. You have to sell or forfeit everything.

 

[nathan]

If anything with detachable mags are affected and those with ten round mags, then the new fad will turn into surplus bolt actions like the Mausers and Mosins which surely are not gonna be affected. I can see Mosin Nagant 91/30 rifles skyrocketing in prices . They could reached $300 to start with ... M44s around $450 . M48s and M 24/47s in the $550 s.

The AK s hovering in the $ 1000 , the ARs in the $1500 minimum.
The 5.56 bulk ammo can reach $600 for 1000 rds as demands soar . WIth that many AR owners, that be a hellhouse. AK bulk ammo may also spike into $ 400 per thousand rds.

 

[USSR]

There was a pretty severe "panic attack" by sportsmen 4 years ago, brought on by an election in which there was no direct threat of gun control legislation. In 2008, Congress critters remembered well the political losses they took as a result of the passage of the Assault Weapons Ban in 1994, and they were not eager to rock the boat. Now there is blood in the water, and the Dems believe that riding the emotional hysteria following the tragedy is a win/win situation for them. You guys who think this is going to settle down in a few weeks or months are delusional. A direct assault by both the president and 1 house of Congress is going to prolong this until at least the 2014 election. Hang onto your hats.

Don

 

[Viper187]

You have a point, but the previous panic attack wasn't that long ago. Are there really that many people that missed out last time? The people worried the world might end on 12/21/12 probably contributed to the current situation, as well as the goddamn holiday holding up production. I'm hoping the panic will ease a bit by spring. I won't have the money to buy a new gun until then, because the one I want would of course have to be a stupid expensive model. If things are looking bad, I might just try to get a Colt AR or DPMS, but I have my eye on an FN SCAR. I'm hoping the fact they were more expensive to begin with makes them sell out a little slower, not to mention the fact that most people want ARs and AKs.

 

[PedalBiker]

Don't be surprised if the Dems use the fiscal speed bump to hide gun laws.

Talk about panic, they're acting like the expiration of the Bush ear tax cuts is the end of the world.

They're like an addict arguing that withdrawal is a crisis only more drugs can solve.

 

[PedalBiker]

+1, people will drive a day and drop a couple of grand for an AR, but they're too damn lazy to call write or email thier elected officials. Go figure!

Lazy - or discouraged. Imagine your rep is Maxine Waters. Do you think she cares?

I wrote Wayne Allard about taxes once. His "reply" made it obvious that no one had read my letter. Most congressmen think you're out to get something. They couldn't imagine anyone willing to actually set up a system where no one gets special breaks.

I don't want any special favors, I just want everyone to play by the same set of rules.

 

[1911austin]

Panic would stop a whole lot sooner if eveyone buying a gun or ammo or mags this last week spent some time to write or call each and every one of their legislators and told them go leave guns alone.

This...

 

[USSR]

Panic would stop a whole lot sooner if eveyone buying a gun or ammo or mags this last week spent some time to write or call each and every one of their legislators and told them go leave guns alone.

I'll be sure to get a letter right out to Chuckie Schumer.

Don

 

[kingcheese]

The last one seemed to last for about 18months in southern Indiana

 

[Buck Kramer]

I think until bigger things happen, like Jan 1st when we drop off this "cliff" Other kinds of panic will ensue, and guns will be back on the back burner.

 

[I6turbo]

.....The people worried the world might end on 12/21/12.....

I truly hope there aren't more than a handfull of people sucker enough to fall for that. If much of society is truly that gullible, I'm afraid we're screwed.

 

[Litlman]

Went to my buddies shop yesterday, all AR mags gone! All 223 and 9mm ammo gone. He had 1 9mm Ruger on the shelf and a guy came in and bought it. He was waiting on a delivery truck to restock his shelves! I will stop guy tomorrow and see if he he has been restocked. He said that he had 3 AR's coming in and they were already sold!

 

[mtrmn]

I truly hope there aren't more than a handfull of people sucker enough to fall for that. If much of society is truly that gullible, I'm afraid we're screwed.

Somehow they re-elected the great deceiver.......

 

[xwingband]

Don't be surprised if the Dems use the fiscal speed bump to hide gun laws.

That's actually a scary thought...

If they tack it on to the fiscal stuff the Republican's are in a really hard spot. It will be really bad if they don't pass any fiscal plans. People will be so pissed when this country goes down an economic toilet bowl that they'll vote out the Republicans that "didn't pass it". If they let it pass we will likely make them pay dearly and the Democrats will probably pick up ground.

I hope they don't have anything that diabolical up their sleeves, because the amount of people wanting to tax the hell out of the rich and get rid of guns is probably pretty high.