Hyper Inflation and Guns

[nerfsrule2]

Like most of you I work very long and hard for my money... We are in a situation where (Due to the devaluation of the Dollar) gas prices increase almost daily, English muffins are $4 a pack, and factory ammo prices are changed about every month. Since it costs me over $100 to fill my truck, I have decided to put a little money in something tangible (a new model 586 pistol and a 9422 rifle).. The Question: What will our current economic problems do to gun prices??? Will they decrease due to people having to sell them to put gas in their tank??(Let's not look ahead to winter, with heating oil prices)Thus causing a surplus in the market. OR will prices go UP; because people will realize that everything else is sky-rocketing (I am tired of a fill up costing me 2 arms).. Your thoughts are welcomed...Thanks

 

[YodaVader]

What will our current economic problems do to gun prices??? Will they decrease due to people having to sell them to put gas in their tank??(

I see gun prices rising all the time too. As to selling guns , if I do so it will be to buy other guns or gun related items. Luckily for me , during the week I do not have to travel more than a mile for anything - work , store , bank , post office or gym. It is the weekend when I make the 76 mile round trip to the range where I use gas! Even with a Honda Civic that is near $8 these days.

 

[dmftoy1]

I don't think we're anywhere near hyper inflation, and using the technical definition of inflation I'm not even completely sure that we're experiencing inflation but we are definately experiencing increases in the cost of everything we buy. (Many people use the word "inflation" to define a rise in costs and that's not true)

Anyway, back to your original question. I've only got 25 years of experience buying/selling/trading guns, alot less than many people on this board. My experience has been that if you buy a gun and take really good care of it you'll typically get back about 80% of what you paid for it taking into account real inflation. So say I bought a $350 Springfield Armoury Mil-spec in 1986 (one with REAL military sights and a parkerized finish) and took really good care of it. (say 98% finish). I'd say I could pretty easily sell that gun for $500 today.

Using 4% as my inflation rate over 22 years . .

$280 - first year - 20% for it being used.
$291.22 - 2nd year
$302.99 - 3rd year
$315.10 - 4th year
$327.70 - 5th year
$340.80 - 6th year
$354.40 - 7th year
$368.60 - 8th year
$383.30 - 9th year
398.60 - 10th year

Anyway, if you carry out the rest of the calculations you can you can see that the gun didn't even keep up with the inflation rate . . .it did better than leaving the money in a jar but . . .

I look at guns as something that I get enjoyment out of that retain "some" value. They're not much of an investment in real terms though. If you look at them the same way you look at a power saw or some other tool and factor in the enjoyment of using it to fix stuff around the house (or destroy watermelons. ) then there's some value in that.

Have a good one,
Dave

 

[bannockburn]

nerfsrule

Right now, I would say anyone starting up a collection is going to find it to be a rather expensive proposition. As prices continue to rise on oil, gas, electricity, raw materials, manufactured goods, and food products, so will the cost of everything related to these items. And so too will the higher cost be passed on to the consumer. So I don't believe you will see any decrease in the cost of new guns; however I think used guns (not of a collector status), becoming perhaps more prevalent in the market, thus offering a better value to the cost concious buyer.
As to the specific question of gas versus guns, I continue to drive my 12+ year old car which last week delivered 42.15 miles per gallon. So while it might impact the frequency with which I drive to the range (close to a 4 hour round trip), it should not affect my other purchasing decisions.

 

[moooose102]

right now, i think that guns are one of the best values. while EVERYTHING else is spiraling out of control, their prices have seemed to hold near constant. they will not for long, so buy what you want soon. it is simply a matter of time. they WILL have to increase gun prices soon just to keep up with everything else!

 

[Starship1st]

Now is the time to buy guns and stock up on ammo. If you can buy reloading equipment maybe consider reloading your own to cut costs. There is no telling how long cost of living will keep going up?

 

[mbt2001]

Well, many guns are made in Turkey and other areas, so fuel prices will be a factor in their price. The raw materials used to make them are on the rise. The US dollar is falling in relation to other currencies so expect prices to go up.

There is no telling how long cost of living will keep going up?

You mean we aren't going to be able to stumble around in a consumer utopia with the government taking care of our every need??

 

[45Badger]

New guns will cost more. Like car companies, some gun companies will "cheapen" their offering to meet a consumer price point. This can be good in some ways as the price pressure forces innovation. Mostly bad, IMO.

There are good (and getting better) deals out there on used guns. Folks are trimming their collections to pay for other things. It's always good to be a cash buyer in uncertain times.

Buy ammo if you can afford it. It's only going to go up.

 

[PTK]

I've been working my collection down to JUST the items I use often, along with those "cheap, durable" guns like single shot shotguns (often $120 new, less than $75 used)

So, from my perspective, prices have been about the same - for those firearms I've sold, I've had the prices at the bluebook values, minus a bit so they move quickly. So far, so good, even in a relatively stagnant economy (no recession that I've seen!)

 

[wally]

We maintain a higherachy of investments for the future.

Cash in the bank for short term "emergencies" like when our 30+ year old central A/C system died last week.

CDs for near term flexibility -- 6 mo. to 3 yrs.

401K for the long term.

US Savings Bonds for if the markets all tank.

Guns and ammo are stashed away for if the US Gov can't make good on the bonds.

But being debt free (except for the home mortgage, and perhaps a car payment) should be priority one!


One could argue about the "proper" mix forever, but believing the reality of the current economic situation is nowhere near as bad as the media is making out (to push Democrat's adgenda for Nov) we're about 80% 401K and approx 5% each in the other four categories.

The lines to buy guns at last weeks gun show sure don't look like any recession here, prices asked by the few individuals selling didn't appear to be looking for quick sales to raise cash either. Other parts of the country could be different, but things always fluctuate with some areas up others down.

For all the "Obama Change!" hoopla, remember the last time people voted for a glib, but mostly unknown campaigner we got Jimmy Carter! You may not like $4/gal gas but its a whole lot better than what we had in '73-'74 -- nothing!, or long lines and odd/even days to buy based on your tag last digit.

--wally.

 

[MinnMooney]

dave - I think that "nerfsrule2" is just talking about the recent falling value of the dollar combined with oil & corn prices. (Corn - for ethanol - is rising like crazy and bringing milk, beef and a multitude of other items up with it.) When you combine the two factors, they're calling it hyper-inflation. I personnally think that they are a tad premature but not too far off the mark.

nerfsrule2 : I can see your point. My truck holds 33 gallons and I run it to near fumes alot (I carry a 2 gal. spare) so the pump bill is around $120 - $130! I don't think that gun prices are keeping up with those rates - yet.

As far as gun prices falling in the forseeable future - I doubt that it will happen due to people like you & me selling off our weapons. If most gun owners are anything like me (& I think they are) then we have tons of other items that we can sell off like toys, stored garage stuff, an old boat/car/snowmobile, blood, wife, kids or our bodies before we sell off our inventories of rifles, pistols or ammo.

I can see some guns doing the "hyper-inflation" thing if the Democrates win big in this November's election though. AR-15s, AKs, SKSs and all of their periphial add-ons will shoot thru the roof (pardon my choice of words).

 

[PTK]

Odd that most people seem to be complaining about milk, beef, grain, etc., prices. The ONLY large price increase I've noted is for imported vegetable and fruit, gas, and vehicle services.

Milk is $2.75/gal here for the good brand, but if you want "premium" milk (whatever THAT is), it's almost $5.00/gal. It's a wonder to me that anyone bothers buying a large company's milk when local stuff is almost half the price.

As for gun prices, I still don't see any change except for small outfits - custom makers, one-off guns, etc.

 

[tinygnat219]

I think this inflation will have a more immediate impact on how much ammo is shot, and how often we shoot more than anything else.

To offset some of this stuff, I sold off my Mazda Tribute 2 years ago and picked up a VW Golf Turbo Diesel. I found an '02 and paid more than I should have for it. However, it had taken me a month of serious looking to find this one, and the dealer wasn't budging on the price. So, I figured Diesel was the way to go.

The Mazda Tribute was getting 13-15 MPG on the highway, and I could sense something majorly expensive was going to go wrong. I traded it in and took a bit of a loss. The VW Golf has been getting 40 MPG around town and as high as 55 on the highway. I feel this was a smart purchase even with Diesel being 1 dollar a gallon more. I am still beating the pants off of my old Tribute's mileage. It's also surprisingly held it's value for the last 2 years. This has become our primary weekend and travel vehicle due to the mileage it gets.

Some other things I have done is switched to shooting primarily rimfire and 9MM cartridges when I hit the range. As I don't reload (yet), this is the cheapest way for me to shoot.

I am not sure what the next step is going to be for shooting, but I know that it's going to lessen in frequency if prices keep rising.

 

[dmftoy1]

LOL - VW Jetta TDI Diesel here and I'm considering brewing my own bio-diesel.

The costs for shooting caused me to start casting my own bullets. FWIW

I would never invest in "Assault Weapons" as an investment. I'd only buy what I wanted for my own personal use. If the stupid laws they keep TRYING to pass here in Illinois are any gauge of the next federal law then you'll be grandfathered on your ownership and not able to "transfer". (hence, no major jump in their value)

Who knows what'll happen though.

Have a good one,
Dave

 

[Vaarok]

Don't get me started on milk price. We dairymen are only getting paid a price that was high in 1970, and last I checked our costs are quite a bit more. Farmers don't set prices, commodity traders (the same bastards who pushed ethanol so they could screw with the corn market) are the ones who set prices, and then we take what they pay us. Dairy's even worse because our marketing cooperative negotiates with the oligarchy of Dean/Kraft/Squeeza and basically acts as their supply agent, not an adversarial force meant to get us a viable price.

And I really don't see the economy failing. What I do see is a lot of people who were stupid and sloppy with their finances and lifestyles are getting a very rough wake-up call that it was unwise and untenable.

Guns are flyin' off the shelves every gunshop I go to, and everybody I talk to is stocking up.

 

[ctdonath]

Don't confuse "price" with "value".
Methinks the main reason prices are going up is because the value of the dollar buying those goods is going down - the value remains the same, you just need more $$$ to represent that value.

Seems guns are a remarkably good investment from that perspective: they generally don't go up in value, but they don't much go down in value either. The numbers on the price tag may change, but relative to the price of everything else the value is pretty steady.

...ergo, should "hyperinflation" hit, they're a good investment: stable value (if not increasing due to cause of hyperinflation), convenient (a few pounds & small package equivalent to a few days' wages), durable (ever hear of anyone having to dispose of one?), desirable (everyone should have at least one).

Maybe not great for "investing" in terms of increasing value, but great for holding value.

 

[sernv99]

buy the guns you want. You only live once on this planet. Might as well enjoy yourself while you can. Tomorrow you can step outside your house and be run over by a car, laid up in a hospital bed, without the ability to walk or use your arms ever again. You'll be sitting there thinking, "man, I wish I had done this when I had the chance" blah blah blah....

 

[nerfsrule2]

Great posts, Keep up the Discussion. Yes I am just concerned about the recent economic mess.(Actually it has been brewing for about 7 years,but the slippery slope has turned into a waterfall within the past 8 months.) Remember the CPI (Consumer price index) has been changed over the years; the PTB took out Food, Fuel and Housing from their economic shopping cart,so we are given inflation figures that are under reported. We have trouble even getting a true # of actual dollars in circulation (What the Fed pumps in) I think it was called M-2.. But my point I am seeing used guns as a very good value, for the most part. I only buy what I will shoot, not so much as an investment but when other costs are skyrocketing I might as well get what I want now before there is a carryover. My way to fight the cost is to reload and shoot more .22 rim fire. It is kinda fon to try and see how many .22's can go in a half inch circle @50 yards.....

 

[pyle]

Right now it's all about oil prices. According to Boone Pickens (noted oil guru) the world demand for oil is greater than the world production - so naturally prices will go higher. Unfortunately, oil prices affect EVERYTHING!

Every heard this phrase: "If you've got it, a truck brought it."? Those big rigs get about 5 to 6 miles per gallon. Everything (including new guns) will continue to rise in price - unless the demand for oil falls. Unfortunately, about the only thing that will reduce the world demand for oil is a "global recession". The price of used guns is more tricky to figure. Since the price of new guns will continue to rise - it could be argued that the demand for used guns will rise as folks can't afford new ones. However, with less folks having money to spend on guns (in general) - we'll see some downward pressure from lower demand in that regard.

Having said that, I would guesss that the price of used guns will stay about the same and new guns will rise.

 

[Slademark]

LOL - VW Jetta TDI Diesel here and I'm considering brewing my own bio-diesel.

Very wise. You can recover your investment in a relatively short period of time and you can even sell excess. It will run in anything that will run diesel.

 

[pyle]

LOL - VW Jetta TDI Diesel here and I'm considering brewing my own bio-diesel.

This is a really good idea IF you can find a steady source of waist oil to make diesel with. When I researched this idea - I was almost ready to start making it when I discovered that I wouldn't be able to get enough waist oil (on a regular basis) to make it worth while.

That would be a great way to free up some money for a few guns and more ammo.

 

[Old Fud]

I buy guns I can get before California makes them illegal, but
my REAL focus at the moment is on Ammunition.

There's at least three driving forces here;

In the first place, ammo prices are going up Almost as fast as gasoline prices, but Ammo has no shelf life -- I CAN stock up a near-lifetime supply -- if I can afford it.

Secondly, it IS a good investment. The way prices are increasing, I can sell something I bought a year ago at 80% of current list and still make a profit on it.

Thirdly, there is the "fear of what California will do" thing again --- there's a new bill half-way through the process that will cut off web-based purchases plus a whole bunch of other curbs.

Ammo -- it's the future cash.

Fud.

 

[lacoochee]

Good point about ammo, it's also easily divisible and has utility in addition to being non-perishable it is a good hedge against inflation.

 

[jakemccoy]

I'm guessing up. Gas affects everything and everybody eventually.

 

[catfish101]

Don't get me started on milk price. We dairymen are only getting paid a price that was high in 1970, and last I checked our costs are quite a bit more. Farmers don't set prices, commodity traders (the same bastards who pushed ethanol so they could screw with the corn market) are the ones who set prices, and then we take what they pay us. Dairy's even worse because our marketing cooperative negotiates with the oligarchy of Dean/Kraft/Squeeza and basically acts as their supply agent, not an adversarial force meant to get us a viable price.

And I really don't see the economy failing. What I do see is a lot of people who were stupid and sloppy with their finances and lifestyles are getting a very rough wake-up call that it was unwise and untenable.

I agree. The jackass that thought it was a good idea to start putting our food in the fuel tank is getting rich right now.

I have heard that corn may be $8 a bushel this fall. There are some weather issues also going on right now that could make that number go up. There are several people that haven't gotten corn out yet and now is pretty much to late.