If you want to know why ammo is still scarce...

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Coincidence?
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Hey! That must be it. No more need to think about alternatives. ;)

Causality is a tough nut to crack. I just thought so many new guns and so many new shooters "might" have something to do with the shortage. Yes I know there were reasons for the new gun rush and the new CCW rush and they both have the initials BO (and no, it isn't body odor).

It seems likely that the new guns and the new shooters (proven by the new CCW permits issues) points to a likely conclusion. But I sure can't say that is exactly what happened.

BTW there are a lot of new AR's in the world and one thing we might think about (to even further muddy the water) is that there have been a lot of .22 based AR type weapons sold in that same time period.

Mostly I'd say the ammo makers wanted to catch up on making centerfire first because there is a bigger profit margin there most likely. And the crush was made worse for rimfire rounds. I just hope it ends soon. I know it's mostly over but I want it completely over.
 
I have bought new and used .22 guns over the years but never I bought ammo when I bought the gun. As a .22 gun owner I always had a supply of .22 ammo.*

A newbie who buys their first .22 today will buy ammo. Someone who buys their first .22 in response to ban scares will probably buy as much ammo as they can. I believe that accounts for part of the shortage.

Another part is us olde tyme gun owners who expected to keep the One Cent a Round price of quality .22 LR from the 1960s into the 2010s. I believe that trying to maintain a low price point is what killed the quality of the Remington Golden Bullet brandname. The absolute value of copper and lead has gone up. The relative value of the dollar has gone down.** You can improve mass production tech to produce goods at a quality point but gradually quality goes down as you try to keep bulk pack .22 at 550 rounds less than $10 dollars. You want quality .22 LR expect to pay $7 or $8 per hundred.
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* (Because of all the propaganda from the anti-gun editorialists leading up to the 1968 Gun Control Act, I made a point of having at least a five year supply on hand since the 1960s. I have been riding out the artificial shortage.)

**I wondered why I could not find a beginner's astronomical telescope as good as the Gilbert I bought for $9.95 when I was 12. Then I discovered the inflation calculator at Wikipedia and plugged USD $10 Year 1960 and its buying power was around current $75. Come to think of it I can remember when the great controversy was raising fed. min. wage to 1.25 an hour.
 
I'll throw out the speculation that 9mm and .223/5.56 centerfire prices are low because a lot of surplusage from military/police contracts goes to the civilian market.
 
Cee Zee said:
What we need is a constitutional amendment saying the 2nd really is about owning guns and that the courts can't change that. Maybe then people will stop buying out of fear they will never be able to buy again. And then maybe I can buy .22 ammo as much as I want again.
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Ummmm...no.

Much as the IDEA appeals to me, the concept of opening up the amendment process scares the bejeebers out of me. The LAST think I want those in power to do is screw around with the Constitution over this issue.

We have the Second Amendment. Kick *ss and take names over that and do NOT let those in power have a window of opportunity to render it null-and-void through the amendment process.

Because that's EXACTLY what they'll try REALLY hard to do.

;)
 
We have the Second Amendment. Kick *ss and take names over that and do NOT let those in power have a window of opportunity to render it null-and-void through the amendment process.
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What your describing is not what I said I would like. I don't want an argument over it. I want it done. Period. What you said is like saying that because I want a bike I have opened myself up to all sorts of restrictions on bike riding setting precedents that reach into every aspect of my life. No, I just want a bike. It doesn't mean I will get one. I don't expect to get one. But I would like exactly what I said which would of course mean that they avoided the pitfall you describe. BTW did you notice I didn't say I wanted to start pushing for an amendment like that? I just said I'd like to have one. I didn't say we should start campaigning for one. I'd like to own a space ship too but I'm not buying up sheet metal to start work on one.
 
What we need is a constitutional amendment saying the 2nd really is about owning guns and that the courts can't change that. Maybe then people will stop buying out of fear they will never be able to buy again. And then maybe I can buy .22 ammo as much as I want again.
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Amendment II
A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.
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What could be clearer than that?

If you want an amendment to protect the rights of the people, how about one that says any legislator who proposes a law in violation of the plain words of the Constitution is automatically dismissed from office and can never run again, and any judge who rules against the plain words of the Constitution is automatically impeached and ineligible to hold any office of trust, honor or profit.
 
The 22 shortage is caused by us. Completely, the Government does not buy 22 ammo.
Basically the manufacturing base it set up for a certain volume.

We over stripped the capacity by a wide margin.
Ammo companies are not going to build new factories to supply a demand they may feel is a panic demand.
Why on earth would they do that? As soon as every thing gets back to normal they would have huge amounts of excess capacity with nothing to do.

Now if the new normal is higher than the old normal. Then they would add capacity to fit that.
They would be foolish to do any thing else.
 
The 22 shortage is caused by us. Completely, the Government does not buy 22 ammo.
Basically the manufacturing base it set up for a certain volume.

We over stripped the capacity by a wide margin.
Ammo companies are not going to build new factories to supply a demand they may feel is a panic demand.
Why on earth would they do that? As soon as every thing gets back to normal they would have huge amounts of excess capacity with nothing to do.

No if the new normal is higher than the old normal. Then they would add capacity to fit that.
They would be foolish to do any thing else.
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That pretty much sums things up. Those crying government conspiracy and cover up, were either just ignorantly repeating, or stirring the pot.

We are our own worst enemies when it come to things like this, and especially those who really arent into it, until the frenzy whips up.

Those who buy all the time, were impacted the least. Those who wait for the panic, always lose. They also tend to be the ones who cry the loudest.
 
I load my own too, and even though components seemed to dry up as well there for awhile, if you order on a regular basis, have a reasonable supply on hand, and set your orders up right, even when things seem dry, you still make out.

Again, those who plan ahead, and are adaptable to different things, tend to make out better than those who wait until things are going south, only shop at one place, or are locked in to a specific load, etc.

I think a lot of this is a matter of "depth". Depth being, how far into all of this are you really. If a "box" to you, is 20 or 50 rounds, then youre on the wrong end of things. If that box is 1000 or more, and " in bulk", is your middle name, youre likely on the other, "better" end.
 
The value of .22 LR ammo is becoming more than gold and silver . And it will continue to be . If one bought a ton of it, it be worth double ...
 
I load my own so I have no shortage, none at all.
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Despite folklore about people in Poland or Siberia, .22 rimfire ammo is not reloadable. And there have been serious shortages in primers, bullets and powder.

My solution to all this is to buy in bulk whenever you can.
 
Ever notice that in all these threads regarding ammo shortage or the .22 shortage there is NEVER anyone posting who actually works in a major capacity for any of the ammo manufactures so there would be some factual information.

All else is pure speculation. None of us can speak for the manufacturer.
 
What could be clearer than that?
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It seems really clear to me too but lawyers have found a way to pick it apart. If they just got rid of the stuff about the militia it would help. But lawyer speak is a thing unto it's own. There's no end to the convoluted double talk they use.

All else is pure speculation. None of us can speak for the manufacturer.
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I don't think anyone claimed any special knowledge of something on such a vast scale. And listening to the manufacturers is sorta like asking Exxon why gas prices go up when crude prices go down. You can't count on them giving a straight answer.
 
This topic has beat up the different possible causes but the reality is it is the perfect storm.

Existing gun owners like myself have begun to increase our "on hand" inventory levels to start. I use to keep one box of 50 rounds for any handgun I own or 1 box of 20 for any rifle. Now due to shortages, possible future shortages, and out right possible ammo bans I now keep on hand 10-20 times more than that. I also now reload so I buy components the same way. I have added more guns of the exotic flavor due to possible bans in the future. I know plenty of little old ladies and girls going off to college that are buying ccw permits and a handgun to go along with it. Most of which will never shoot them. It's the perfect storm.
 
I don't think anyone claimed any special knowledge of something on such a vast scale.
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Never said or claimed anyone did.

And listening to the manufacturers is sorta like asking Exxon why gas prices go up when crude prices go down. You can't count on them giving a straight answer.
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Has anyone ever actually asked Exxon the above. Who knows we might get a straight answer.

Here in No. Indiana normally, but not always, when the price of oil goes down the price of gas does the same, not sure about where you live tho.
 
Cee Zee said:
What your describing is not what I said I would like. I don't want an argument over it. I want it done. Period. What you said is like saying that because I want a bike I have opened myself up to all sorts of restrictions on bike riding setting precedents that reach into every aspect of my life. No, I just want a bike. It doesn't mean I will get one. I don't expect to get one. But I would like exactly what I said which would of course mean that they avoided the pitfall you describe. BTW did you notice I didn't say I wanted to start pushing for an amendment like that? I just said I'd like to have one. I didn't say we should start campaigning for one. I'd like to own a space ship too but I'm not buying up sheet metal to start work on one.
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Oh, I get your liking of the idea. Who wouldn't? I just don't like the idea of opening it up to a bunch of politicians who could ultimately trash the whole thing.

Dang skippy it'd be cool, though...
 
To answer a few questions posed;

My local club's membership has reached nearly 1,000 which puts it at an all-time high. There are plenty of new faces and several dozen fast becoming fixtures.

I know multiple new shooters who until a year or two ago owned no firearms who each own 3 or more now.

A half-dozen local High Schools have organized Trap Clubs in the past 5 years, all of them seeing growth each year with one coach informing me his team numbers 77 in a town of just over 30,000.

As a long time shooter I have made a dozen or more firearm purchases under the current administration and shoot far more often than I used to. I've added at least 6 chambered for .22lr in the last 3 years.

I bought CCI Mini-Mags (HP) in mid-March for $8/100 (traditional pack) and $24/300 (Troy Landry bulk pack) at Bass Pro. Think I ended up with 900 or 1,200 rounds of it. I'm not hoarding, merely buying more than I'm currently shooting so as to not run out.

I enjoy reading others' take on the whys of the shortage though I don't profess any knowledge of which assertions may be correct.
 
One other point that was raised about who was buying all of the firearms being sold, and that it was likely as not to be us old time shooters: many a sport has witnessed such a bonanza in the past from bowling to archery to cycling. Fifteen years ago it seemed every other 20 something owned a Kawasaki Ninja in putrid green. 10 years ago the local Harley Davidson dealership had a 2 year wait list for many models and price was full retail.

Trends come and go. Sales skyrocket and plunge. But firearms aren't the first and won't be the last thing people take record interest in. I've bought 8 used Treks in the past 12 months that together retailed for nearly $5,000. My average cost was $100 per bike with 4 in near new condition. Anyone else looking forward to the used gun market 10 years down the road?
 
It seems really clear to me too but lawyers have found a way to pick it apart. If they just got rid of the stuff about the militia it would help. But lawyer speak is a thing unto it's own. There's no end to the convoluted double talk they use.
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Then we need to do something about the lawyers and judges, not about the Constitution.
 
only .22LR and now 5.56/.223 seem to be scarce here in North Texas... .22LR I haven't seen in a long long time and 5.56 is basically gone ever since the "greentip" discussions came up

any pistol caliber is widely available... Walmart has WWB for $26/100rds ; Perfecta brass cased for ~$22/100rds and if you are lucky you'll find Federal Aluminum for ~$20/100rds... not crazy cheap but also not crisis pricing...

There's also a lot of .40 / .45 and 7.62 under rifle ammo...
 
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