Is the age of the .40 S&W (and maybe .357 SIG) over?

[mcb]

KE = 0.5 * m * v² or KE=0.5*m*V*V
The little number above the V that denotes square is called an exponent hence when a factor is squared the increase is exponential to that factor.

If the growth was V it would be linear, if V^2 is quadratic growth. V^3 would be cubic. Yes the number ^x is the exponent of V but that is not exponential growth.
To be exponential grown it would be e^V and is considerable faster than quadratic or cubic etc. Classically e is the natural number 2.71828... but you could put any constant in for e and it would still be exponential growth.

 

[Kleanbore]

Recoil energy and momentum are figured the same way as the projectiles.
So you're statements are backward recoil energy goes up exponentially with velocity and linear with mass.

For the sane gun except for caliber, recoil , or the change in the momentum of the gun, is proportional to the momentum of the bullet and other ejecta--directly proportional to the mass and velocity--period

Recoil response has zero to do with physics and everything to do with individual perceptions.

Come now!

y arguing over recoil as a marketing factor you are assuming recoil response is a static, known quantity and that is simply false.

We are not discussing recoil as a "marketing factor"==rather as a reason why, all other thngs being equal 9mm handguns can be discharged more rapidly in controlled fire than .40 Smith and Wesson handguns.,which is one reason for the comparative trends in sales.

Any analysis of sales or production data comparing pre- to mid- and post-plandemic data which tries to draw a solid conclusion about future market share is flawed. That’s a fact. As the labor, construction, and housing analysis have found, there is no compensating factor which can be used to normalize the data. Lost sales to law enforcement is a blow to new service grade manufacturing; but increases secondary product demand; which places pressure on the supply chain. Simple.

Alrighty then!

F=mA. Always. Everywhere in the known Universe.

Yes. And what mcb said about kinetic energy is true also.

 

[mavracer]

If the growth was V it would be linear, if V^2 is quadratic growth. V^3 would be cubic. Yes the number ^x is the exponent of V but that is not exponential growth.
To be exponential grown it would be e^V and is considerable faster than quadratic or cubic etc. Classically e is the natural number 2.71828... but you could put any constant in for e and it would still be exponential growth.

 

[WrongHanded]

We are not discussing recoil as a "marketing factor"

Maybe you're not. But some of us are. Because it is used as a marketing factor by people claiming the 9mm is "just as good" as the .40, but with less recoil.

 

[mavracer]

We are not discussing recoil as a "marketing factor"==rather as a reason why, all other thngs being equal 9mm handguns can be discharged more rapidly in controlled fire than .40 Smith and Wesson handguns.,which is one reason for the comparative trends in sales.

Market=sales
Factor=one reason

How'd that go come now!

 

[Kleanbore]

Market=sales
Factor=one reason

How'd that go come now!

The widespread adoption of the 9 by law enforcement, other government agencies, and military organizations has not resulted from "marketing" or from "marketing factors". The manufacturers are as willing to sell one cartridge as any other.

Rather, it has resulted from the evaluation by those agencies of the comparative advantages and disadvantages of the 9 and the .40.

 

[mavracer]

Industry: "sales are down"
Marketing: "let's get them to switch calibers again"
Marketing: "here Mr trainer is a pallet of ammo and a couple shiny new guns. Go tell people they are the best compromise ever"

 

[mavracer]

The widespread adoption of the 9 by law enforcement, other government agencies, and military organizations has not resulted from "marketing" or from "marketing factors". The manufacturers are as willing to sell one cartridge as any other.

Rather, it has resulted from the evaluation by those agencies of the comparative advantages and disadvantages of the 9 and the .40.

Well the military has more to do with NATO and never switched, and law enforcement mostly stems from the bogus FBI report justifying going back to save a buck and get the lowest common denominator qualified.
Which is funny cause the 9mm was their scapegoat for the Miami fiasco that ultimately brought us the 40.
The industry jumped all over this because you cant use your stockpile of 40 S&W in your shiny new 9mm.

 

[mcb]

View attachment 1004060

Again the 4 in that equation is an exponent and the equation = 6^4 is and exponential equation but to be an exponential growth/relationship the independent variable (velocity in this case) must be in the exponent (the 4) not the base (the 6). But in the case of the kinetic energy equation velocity is in the base not the exponent and the exponent is a constant. Since that exponent is the constant, the integer two (2), this equation is a quadratic relationship between energy and velocity.

And exponential relationship would be IF energy was E = 1/2* m* e^V. This growth is significantly (exponentially even ) faster than a quadratic equation we know kinetic energy is.

The terms have meaning, and in math that meaning is usually extremely well defined.

 

[Kleanbore]

ndustry: "sales are down"
Marketing: "let's get them to switch calibers again"
Marketing: "here Mr trainer is a pallet of ammo and a couple shiny new guns. Go tell people they are the best compromise ever"

It would be ridiculous and naive in the extreme to believe that some marketing department somewhere persuaded the folks at Quantico to recommend the 9 over the .40, or to influence all other Government agencies to adopt it, or caused the military users of the world to adopt it--or that those agencies care very much what a few private firearms instructors may have to say.

Well the military has more to do with NATO and never switched,

In the competition that resulted in the adoption of the M17, the Army did not specify 9mm--they left the selection of the round to the offerors. An all new 9mm FMJ round and an all-new JHP round were proposed and selected.

...and law enforcement mostly stems from the bogus FBI report...

Can you provide any objective information that would support that claim? Any?

 

[WrongHanded]

Marketing:

The new sell is a high volume of fast accurate hits on multiple targets. The trainers demonstrate their "black belt skills" at this using weak 9mm range ammo, and thus sell the concept to the would-be students. Along with it comes the "9mm is just as good as X" and "If it's good enough for the FBI..." concepts, and the would-be student laps it up. The students then learn to shoot faster as a result, and feel like they are on their way to a black belt too.

Nevermind that the weak range ammo is lower recoil than the modern defensive ammo the student will carry. Nevermind that the FBI testing is a pass/fail system, not a comparative evaluation. Nevermind the difference in per shot wounding. Nevermind that the FBI have compromised downward to the lowest common denominator of non-shooter. The narrative has been written and the marketing has been effective.

So yeah, marketing.

Then compromise down on a smaller and lighter weight gun for concealed carry with a lower capacity. Justify this by saying that it's higher capacity and lower recoil than a more powerful cartridge and just as good regarding terminal ballistics. Mental gymnastics at its finest.

 

[lightman]

Noticing that just about everyone has moved from the .40 to 9mm. However .45ACP does have a very strong following.

Is .40 S&W and 35 SIG slowly becoming very marginalized?

I don't think the 40 S&W is going away anytime soon. The SIG, maybe. I just don't know. I still have a couple of 40's and don't expect to quit shooting them. The 40 S&W is the 3rd most common case that I pick up, with the 9mm and 223 being ahead of it.

 

[Kleanbore]

The new sell is a high volume of fast accurate hits on multiple targets.

That was the objective when the FBI and the USAF were training double action revolver shooting in 1961.

The trainers demonstrate their "black belt skills" at this using weak 9mm range ammo

Basis for that?

a...nd the would-be student laps it up.

When one considers the number of "would be students" who avail themselves of defensive pistol training, it becomes vey obvious that civilian handgun training can have had no measurable impact on the number of police surplus .40 handguns that jave come into the marketplace.

Nevermind that the weak range ammo is lower recoil than the modern defensive ammo the student will carry.

No one recommends that.

Nevermind the difference in per shot wounding.

What difference might that be, and how would it be helpful?

Nevermind that the FBI have compromised downward to the lowest common denominator of non-shooter.

Where did that come from?

The narrative has been written and the marketing has been effective.

You have been speaking of "would be students" and civilian instructors. Do you really believe that the selection of handguns by law enforcement, other government agencies, and the military was influenced by "marketing"?

So yeah, marketing.

To whom, by whom?

 

[mavracer]

It would be ridiculous and naive in the extreme to believe that some marketing department somewhere persuaded the folks at Quantico to recommend the 9 over the .40, or to influence all other Government agencies to adopt it, or caused the military users of the world to adopt it--or that those agencies care very much what a few private firearms instructors may have to say.

It's ridiculous and naive to think the "widespread" switch isn't money driven when the original FBI paper was just to have a 9mm as an option for the lowest common denominator.

In the competition that resulted in the adoption of the M17, the Army did not specify 9mm--they left the selection of the round to the offerors. An all new 9mm FMJ round and an all-new JHP round were proposed and selected.

It would be ridiculous and naive to think any NATO country is going to adopt anything other than 9mm NATO for general distribution.

Can you provide any objective information that would support that claim? Any?

9mm is not equal to 40 ballistically period.

 

[Trey Veston]

I just bought a new pistol yesterday in .40 S&W. I like it. But then, when all my buddies in Junior High were Chevy fans, I bought a Ford as my first car, just to be unique. I hate following the crowd. The .40 S&W is bigger and ballistically superior to the 9mm. But I carry a P365 in 9mm due to the size, and because I believe statistics that show they are both very, very close in effectiveness.

I think .40 S&W will remain relevant until the majority of it's fans start dying off. Most .45 ACP fans are in their 60's, 70's, and 80's. They are not long for this world. My dad is 83 and never owned a 9mm or a .40 S&W. Nothing but a 1911 in .45 ACP, or a .357 Magnum wheelgun for him.

I'm 50 and love .40 S&W. I grew up with it as one of my early carry guns in my 20's. My son and son-in-law love 9mm. They are in their 20's. I still love them, though. LOL.

Caliber war threads are interesting because they are such a mix of science, statistics, and emotion.

 

[WrongHanded]

That was the objective when the FBI and the USAF were training double action revolver shooting in 1961.
Basis for that?
When one considers the number of "would be students" who avail themselves of defensive pistol training, it becomes vey obvious that civilian handgun training can have had no measurable impact on the number of police surplus .40 handguns that jave come into the marketplace.
No one recommends that.
What difference might that be, and how would it be helpful?
Where did that come from?
You have been speaking of "would be students" and civilian instructors. Do you really believe that the selection of handguns by law enforcement, other government agencies, and the military was influenced by "marketing"?
To whom, by whom?

I realize you'd like to focus the debate on to a single word such as "marketing" rather than address the overall concept that has been pushed throughout the defensive firearms industry that the 9mm is "just as good" and "therefore better", and all the reasons why that has happened. But I'm not going to argue semantics with you. I've explained it clearly enough. And I know you understand what I wrote.

But Incase you didn't: Rob Pincus (or whoever else) marketed the single stack 9mm to you, and you bought it. Then you literally went and bought it. Since then you've been pushing that concept on this site, and that's what's going on.

 

[Kleanbore]

It's ridiculous and naive to think the "widespread" switch isn't money driven when the original FBI paper was just to have a 9mm as an option for the lowest common denominator.

That doesn't follow.

It would be ridiculous and naive to think any NATO country is going to adopt anything other than 9mm NATO for general distribution.

We were speaking of the US Army.

9mm is not equal to 40 ballistically period

And you offer that assertion to support an accusation that the FBI recommendation was "bogus"?

 

[Kleanbore]

But Incase you didn't: Rob Pincus (or whoever else) marketed the single stack 9mm to you, and you bought it. Then you literally went and bought it. Since then you've been pushing that concept on this site, and that's what's going on.

No. Not at all. I retired my .45 and started carrying a 9 some years before I ever met Rob Pincus or read anything from him.

It was a double-column Ruger.

When I trained under Pincus, he was using a double column Glock.

I later replaced the Ruger with a single column Springfield because I wanted a grip safety, and the Remington R51 wasn't panning out. Pincus' reliability testing of the XDS did impress me, and it saved me some money.

I now carry a Smith EZ 9.

Nothing that I have ever done or said, or Rob, for that matter, can have had any impact on the comparative sales of 9mm handguns vs .40, or on the availability of surplus handguns, which are the subject of the thread.

 

[mavracer]

Where did that come from?

The fact that many if not most LEO are not shooters and don't shoot other than the minimum required to qualify.

 

[mavracer]

Nothing that I have ever done or said, or Rob, for that matter, can have had any impact on the comparative sales of 9mm handguns vs .40, or on the availability of surplus handguns, which are the subject of the thread.

You and Rob are just 2 of the many parrots. Trust me I'm thankful I got a crap load of FBI contract 40 for about what cheap range 9mm goes for

 

[cfullgraf]

We can have excellent discussions on the value and efficiency of various cartridges until the cows come home. But the bottom line is when it comes to firearms, where the military and law enforcement goes, the consuming public follows.

 

[GeoDudeFlorida]

Market=sales
Factor=one reason

How'd that go come now!

Correction: A "market" is a group of consumers. Marketing is the process of aligning production assets - raw materials, labor, advertising, consumer sentiment, and transportation infrastructure - to satisfy the demands of an existing or potential market.

Marketing can't exist in a vacuum, it requires consumers and producers talking to each other in an honest dialogue. It is not some evil process rooted in greed or "profit," it is the natural, normal and perfectly equitable process of people who want a product, and have the means of acquiring it, letting their needs and wants known to industries which can make them. There's an assumption out there that "no one needs to market essentials." Uh-huh. Tell that to Archer-Daniels Midland Corporation and the National Association of Realtors. They - and every other innovator in any industry - are constantly conducting market surveys looking for trends in consumer demand.

The changes in demand in one market - group of consumers - may or may not effect other tangentially-related market demands simply because a supply-chain change is also made. Will civilian consumers spending their own cash stop seeking service-size pistols in .500BestCopGunEver simply because the FBI, DEA, CIA, DoD, USPS, DHHS, et. al. switch to the 5.35x25mmNewestBestestCopGunEver cartridge?

Answer this question for a clue: How many consumers completely abandoned the .38Spl in favor of the 10mm when the FBI did exactly that?

 

[mavracer]

That doesn't follow.

Sure it does

We were speaking of the US Army.

Last I checked we were still a member of NATO so what's your point?

And you offer that assertion to support an accusation that the FBI recommendation was "bogus"?

Just one.
Another would be that whole doctors can't tell a wound from 9mm JHP to one from a 40 JHP

 

[GeoDudeFlorida]

We can have excellent discussions on the value and efficiency of various cartridges until the cows come home. But the bottom line is when it comes to firearms, where the military and law enforcement goes, the consuming public follows.

You know, now that you mention it, I was wondering why the .38Spl disappeared completely after the FBI stopped buying them and adopted the Smith & Wesson Model 1076 in 10mmAuto in 1990. I just wish SOMEONE would make a snub-nosed .38Spl revolver for concealed carry. If only...

 

[WrongHanded]

No. Not at all. I retired my .45 and started carrying a 9 some years before I ever met Rob Pincus or read anything from him.

It was a double-column Ruger.

When I trained under Pincus, he was using a double column Glock.

I later replaced the Ruger with a single column Springfield because I wanted a grip safety, and the Remington R51 wasn't panning out. Pincus' reliability testing of the XDS did impress me, and it saved me some money.

I now carry a Smith EZ 9.

Nothing that I have ever done or said, or Rob, for that matter, can have had any impact on the comparative sales of 9mm handguns vs .40, or on the availability of surplus handguns, which are the subject of the thread.

Cool story. And we both know you've made mention of Rob and his recommendations multiple times, like you're preaching from the bible. The timeline of your journey to the sub-compact 9mm is irrelevant. You still arrived there due to influences from professionals and their recommendations to you. And now you make frequent mention of those professionals and encourage others to seek their training. You've been marketed to, just like so many others. The 9mm as the cartridge of choice, is simply one aspect of it, but the one relevant here.