Is the market slowly recovering?

[kmw1954]

I can't judge for certain but just this week I have received two separate orders for reloading supplies.

Monday I received my order from MidSouth that was for 500 Hornady 62gr .224 FMJBT bullets. On their web page there is a notice of delayed shipping times. The order was placed on 12/14 and I received it 12/21 which I would say isn't bad considering the times.

Today I received my order from Powder Valley containing 8lbs, of Ramshot TAC and 3lbs of Accurate 2460 which have been Out of Stock everywhere for as long as I can remember.

That order was place on 12/17 and today is 12/23.

Then, following the thread "Where are the Reloading Components", I see that more and more are being successful at getting some primers. Prices for the primers may be a little higher than we are use to but again "the times".

Now I don't normally buy powders over the internet as I hate paying the shipping and hazmat fees but again at this time the powder I wanted and needed isn't available locally.

 

[Obturation]

Glad you got some TAC, know you've been looking.
I don't know, they had some primers at dam rd last week when I was there. I've had 1000 federal spp for trade on here for nearly a month before I got any interest (trading them on Saturday to a local forum member). I thought the spp for trade would have gotten a little more traffic , so it can't be that bad out there. I just ordered powder from hodgdons and it was sent right out, I got a lb of imr4227 at bass pro 2 weeks ago. It's hard to tell if it's coming back now or people are stocked up and not buying as much.
I know when I can I plan to buy primers, a lot of primers.

 

[WestKentucky]

It is either the lull before the storm or the lull signaling better times to come. I’m afraid to guess what we are seeing right now, but at a shop somewhat locally there is some stuff available at normal prices and they claim to be able to keep stock.

 

[CQB45ACP]

I agree, grab it while you can and it’s a shame but that’s the stuff continuing shortages are made of. So be it. (Let the criticism begin)

I think recent big retailers actions are deceptive and only make it appear to be breaking loose.

The benchmark I was using, but grew weary since it was too much like work, was watching the actual selling prices of SPP (including buy it now) on Gunbroker. Simple economics of course, high demand=high prices (again, actual selling, not asking).

A month or two ago, the sale prices actually dropped a little but noticeably for a few days or a week. But then went back up and I haven’t looked in quite a while. It’s hard to know what’s actually happening from Thanksgiving to Christmas.

Anyway, I think we’re in the 5th inning of this game and hope it ends in 9.

 

[Nature Boy]

Since this situation isn’t driven by the supply side, the market recovers when the hoarding stops

 

[Walkalong]

Pruned, please leave the politics out of it.

 

[Targa]

Not around my area. Heck Cabelas, Bass Pro, Sportsman’s Warehouse etc...etc..no longer have shelf space for primers or powder to even give the illusion that they expect them in...lol.

 

[buck460XVR]

I see it recovering. Seeing ammo showing up at the LGS again, reloading supplies generally follow.

 

[CQB45ACP]

Since this situation isn’t driven by the supply side, the market recovers when the hoarding stops

Right, but sales are a good leading indicator anyway.

But, is it possible, what was used to be considered hoarding is now a new normal? What might the threshold be between just stocking up vs. hoarding? I’ve not paid attention to these shortages in the past.

 

[JCSC]

I was surprised to see my local sportsman’s had about 10# of powders. TAC, #2, A4350 and terminator. I sure hope it comes back soon.

 

[ddc]

It seems to me that obtaining powder has been the least problematic of the powder/bullets/primers triumvirate while primers are the most.
I won't relax until primers are available on Gunbroker for way way less than $100/1000.
Last I checked we are still at two to three times that number.
Still have a ways to go.

 

[NWcityguy2]

If 2013 is a guide, the worst is still to come. It takes time for all of the supplies sitting in warehouses to be inventoried, shipped to sellers, and put out on the floor or listed on a website. But once those warehouses are empty, it will be quick and obvious. I personally am expecting several months of the only consistently in-stock powders to be either for shotgun (with little pistol application), or magnum rifle. Other stuff will come and go, but it's not something you are likely to find unless you are watching websites and buy it just as it is listed. Thankfully pistol bullets should be better as so many new companies have entered the market with coated bullets.

And remember, the reloading market only gets what the ammo manufacturers don't use. They don't build factory, buy machines or pay people salaries to make ammo and then sell the components to reloaders first. The people on Youtube who claim to have spoken to manufacturers and distrabuters are saying they already have orders to get them to summer next year.

Edit: It's also fair to wonder if the manufacturing capability of ammo makers grew with the shooting public when for three years they were struggling to sell anything that wasn't on sale.

 

[Obturation]

seems to me that obtaining powder has been the least problematic

I agree, some powders have just been impossible for me though. 2400, unique and trailboss have been the 3 I have had no luck with. Bullets have been slow but most will let you just order and wait. Primers are another story, as we all know.

 

[CQB45ACP]

It seems to me that obtaining powder has been the least problematic of the powder/bullets/primers triumvirate while primers are the most.
I won't relax until primers are available on Gunbroker for way way less than $100/1000.
Last I checked we are still at two to three times that number.
Still have a ways to go.

Agreed

 

[kcofohio]

I've been meaning to stop in at the local Fin, just to see. Last time I believe I was in there was back in late summer, maybe. All the had in primers were 209s and 1 brick of Fed large rifle match.

 

[MCMXI]

I bought 4lb of H4350, 3lb of Varget and 2lb of H1000 this week at the local Murdochs, and all at regular prices.

 

[NWcityguy2]

I agree, some powders have just been impossible for me though. 2400, unique and trailboss have been the 3 I have had no luck with. Bullets have been slow but most will let you just order and wait. Primers are another story, as we all know.

Maybe its a sign that you should switch to powders that are cleaner, easier to meter, or both. Shame about Trailboss though.

I remember in 2013 that once the W231/HP38 was gone, it was gone. Supposedly it took longer to manufacture than other powders and was put on the back burner for more modern and efficient options. Same went for Universal due to a fire that happened at the plant where it was made.

 

[Obturation]

Maybe its a sign that you should switch to powders that are cleaner, easier to meter, or both. Shame about Trailboss though.

2400 meters well, it is a bit on the dirty side but I've found nothing better for 158 grain swc in 357 mag and prefer it for a magnum powder that downloads well. Unique is just a mainstay and can be used for just about anything , meters poorly and isn't best for anything but is one of the most versatile powders out there. I have 4# of trailboss, it goes fast though, it too meters poorly. Oh well, that's what I like.

 

[GeoDudeFlorida]

Not around my area. Heck Cabelas, Bass Pro, Sportsman’s Warehouse etc...etc..no longer have shelf space for primers or powder to even give the illusion that they expect them in...lol.

—-
Ditto for the LGS’ in my area (50 mile radius). Two owners say they’re done, too much hassle, too many crazies. One says they’ll restock but aren’t in a hurry. That fella feels like he’ll lose his regulars if prices go up and lose new business if he refuses to stock anything.
Times are interesting.

 

[GeoDudeFlorida]

And remember, the reloading market only gets what the ammo manufacturers don't use. They don't build factory, buy machines or pay people salaries to make ammo and then sell the components to reloaders first.

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I think that’s why powders have been less of a problem. The ammo makers don’t tend to use canister powder they use their own formulas. Some box ammo powders cross over to canister but they are probably not identical.

 

[Skgreen]

The Holidays aren't helping anything right at this exact second. Went to Academy t-nite and there was not (1) round of rifle, pistol, or rimfire on the shelves.
The Shotshell aisle had a few odd flats, but probably 10% of what it normally had.

(2) thoughts when I left:
Going to take a while to fill the stores/warehouses,,,
I wonder how may well-intentioned Spouses bought 45 Long Colt for their Spouses 45 acp,,,,

 

[GeoDudeFlorida]

The Holidays aren't helping anything right at this exact second. Went to Academy t-nite and there was not (1) round of rifle, pistol, or rimfire on the shelves.
The Shotshell aisle had a few odd flats, but probably 10% of what it normally had.

(2) thoughts when I left:
Going to take a while to fill the stores/warehouses,,,
I wonder how may Spouses bought 45 Long Colt for their Spouses 45 acp,,,,

—-


I stopped off at a LGS on the way home from work today and there was an older fella in there trying to buy “40 Glock” and “AR bullets” for his son. The owners wife was having the Devil’s time convincing him Glocks shoot 40S&W. He turned to me and I said,”Yup. Smith invented the cartridge so they get to name it “. AR bullets was another matter. Did I mention we’re a little rural round here?

 

[AJC1]

There is a small bump in supply due to the factories ramping up their production. The supply will continue to slowly increase as they become more proficient and the time management engineers work on efficiencies. The Remington plan will be slower to get up to speed due to how low of people they had dropped to. Given about 6 months the will all be at maximum and cracking out the most ever... I believe you will start to see improvements and then the new laws may start coming in. Who knows

 

[Nature Boy]

Right, but sales are a good leading indicator anyway.

But, is it possible, what was used to be considered hoarding is now a new normal? What might the threshold be between just stocking up vs. hoarding? I’ve not paid attention to these shortages in the past.

It’s pretty simple. People buy more because they are afraid there won’t be any in inventory There isn’t any in inventory because people keep buying more.

All things being equal, things will return to some degree of normal when these conditions are met:

1. People look at their stash and realize “holy crap, I have xxx,xxx primers. I guess I better slow down”

2. People refuse to pay $0.50 ea for a primer

3. When the bubble in the supply chain is relieved and inventories at major retail locations lasts longer than 15 seconds

 

[kmw1954]

Since this situation isn’t driven by the supply side,

How can you with a straight face imply this is not a supply problem? When a Manufacture such as Fiocchi tells a distributor that there is a 24 month backlog for orders of 223 and 9mm ammunition.

Pruned, please leave the politics out of it.

Thank you Walkalong, and as we have been warned there is nothing political about this question. If you think there is then please keep it to yourself. If this starts to drift then by all means shut it off.