I want to point out again that I'm not a member of the "buckshot crowd"--I'm just trying to reconcile an apparent anomaly.
I figure you're right on the 22LR having better penetration, but then a 22 bullet will penetrate a good foot or more if it doesn't hit bone. IIRC, the 22LR pistol bullet that hit Reagan bounced off a rib and still penetrated deep into his chest cavity. From what I could read of the initial post, it looks to me like bone wasn't an issue in the leopard incident.
I'm also not questioning the honesty of your friend. I'm questioning the quality of his ammo--and maybe his ability to eyeball 2" accurately.
As far as the shot column not spreading out. From my experience shooting an airgun into a ballistic putty pellet trap, if you put a pellet into a hole made by another pellet, the pellet will hit the first pellet and drive it deeper. The resulting depth of penetration is not as much as if you shot two pellets and added the resulting wound channels end-to-end, but it is deeper than either one would have made by itself. That's with a VERY poor projectile in terms of sectional density, and one that will deform FAR more easily than a solid lead ball. So, I would have to say, based on that, the shot column will penetrate much better before it spreads out than after. I have no way to accurately quantify the penetration depth, but you should see penetration that is better than an individual 00 pellet, but not as good as if you shot a solid lead projectile of the weight of the entire column.
Also from my airgunning experience, I can say with some confidence that even relatively soft and non-aerodynamic projectiles will penetrate a surprising distance. I've got a .20 caliber airgun that shoots about 800fps. There is no question that those 11 grain pellets will penetrate 2" or more in flesh--I'm getting more than an inch of penetration in ballistic putty which is far more dense than flesh. Those airgun pellets are pretty anemic compared to .33 caliber & 54 grains @ 1200fps.
The 44mag incident is hard to relate to this topic. As you pointed out, the fragment was heavier than the shotgun pellets, not shaped like a ball, and most of all, we have no idea of the velocity at impact.
One more thing worth throwing out... A couple of the references I found pointed out that there is quite a bit of difference in penetration based on the softness of the pellets. Apparently the harder pellets--especially if they are copper plated too--penetrate much better than a load with dead-soft plain lead pellets. If you're going to ask him about the ammo, you might as well also try to find out if he was using premium buckshot (hardened, plated pellets) or the plain lead variety.